• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.1-7
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• 2012

A Failure data from operating condition includes various failures. Reliability evaluation by operating condition is more correct than test condition. Additional, the evaluation result by operating condition is widely used for quality assurance, forecasting amount of manufacturing at EOL. To discover valuable things from the failure data, arrangement of the failure data and information technique to handle data is needed among many failure data. This paper introduces a reliability prediction program to solve this problem based on the failure. And new technologies for parameters estimation with method of Graphic-Wizard-Parameters-Estimation and Genetic Algorithm are introduced.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.43-59
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• 1995

This paper presents a method for estimating the population variability distribution of the failure parameter (failure rate or failure probability) for each failure mode considered in PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). We focus on the utilization of generic estimates from various industry compendia for the estimation. The estimates are complicated statistics of failure data from plants. When the failure data referred in two or more sources are overlapped, dependency occurs among the estimates provided by the sources. This type of problem is first addressed in this paper. We propose methods based on ML-II estimation in Bayesian framework and discuss the characteristics of the proposed estimators. The proposed methods are easy to apply in real field. Numerical examples are also provided.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.370-373
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• 2004

The inside and outside of the country utilities considered that they focused energy and economic aspect for short-term in new environment change of restructure. but it need service reliability preservation and improvement countermeasure, that is no to use existent estimation method for reliability preservation. therefore, analyze the equipment failure rate for suitable reliability preservation through equipment failure rate analysis of power distribution r system and evaluated equipment that is composing power distribution system by the failure rate. This paper estimated failure causes and the TVFR(Time Varying Failure Rate) for main equipment that is composing power distribution system using Weibull distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.747-752
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• 2019

By using the failure information and the cumulative test execution time obtained by performing the reliability growth test, it is possible to estimate the parameter of the reliability growth model, and the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of the product can be predicted through the parameter estimation. However the failure information could be acquired periodically or the number of sample data of the obtained failure information could be small. Because there are various constraints such as the cost and time of test or the characteristics of the product. This may cause the error of the parameter estimation of the reliability growth model to increase. In this study, the Bayesian method is applied to estimating the parameters of the reliability growth model when the number of sample data for the fault information is small. Simulation results show that the estimation accuracy of Bayesian method is more accurate than that of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) respectively in estimation the parameters of the reliability growth model.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.51-60
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• 2002

This paper presents the methodology for obtaining point and interval estimating of the parameters of a new two-parameter distribution with multiple-censored and singly censored data (Type-I censoring or Type-II censoring) as well as complete data, using the maximum likelihood method. The basis is the likelihood expression for multiple-censored data. Furthermore, this model can be extended to a three-parameter distribution that is added a scale parameter. Then, the parameter estimation can be obtained by the graphical estimation on probability plot.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.18 no.2 s.92
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• pp.233-238
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• 2006

In lifetime estimation, the FEM analysis method is proposed for predicting corrosion failure time of concrete structures exposed to sea-water. This study shows that the corrosion rate of rebar in artificial pore solution can be transferred to the corrosion rate of rebar in concrete using the relationship between pore volume and concrete volume by Jennings' model. And this study considered the pitting corrosion effects of reinforcement bar on corrosion failure analysis, rebar size to cover depth and nonlinear crack analysis. These analysis results have good accordance with the experimental results of Williamson's work. This methodology can be applied to lifetime prediction procedure of reinforced concrete structures and also gives more reasonable results of concrete cover failure time estimation of reinforced concrete structures exposed to sea-water.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.30 no.12 s.255
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• pp.1618-1625
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• 2006

During the last two decades, several guidelines have been developed and used for assessing the integrity of a defective steam generator (SG) tube that is generally caused by stress corrosion cracking or wall-thinning phenomenon. However, as some of SG tubes are also failed due to fretting and so on, alternative failure estimation schemes are required for relevant defects. In this paper, parametric three-dimensional finite element (FE) analyses are carried out under internal pressure condition to simulate the failure behavior of SG tubes with different defect configurations; elliptical wear, tapered and flat wear type defects. Maximum pressures based on material strengths are obtained from more than a hundred FE results to predict the failure of SG tube. After investigating the effect of key parameters such as defect depth, defect length and wrap angle, simplified failure estimation equations are proposed in relation to the equivalent stress at the deepest point in wear region. Comparison of failure pressures predicted by the proposed estimation scheme with corresponding burst test data showed a good agreement.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.336-341
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• 2013

Reliability analysis for various forms of data obtained from complicated electronic circuits is a necessary process for guaranteeing reliability of the system. Reliability assessment of a system starts from the estimation of failure function. A system can be composed of one item, but in most cases, several items are correlated to each other in one system. This study suggests an estimation method of failure function and reliabilities for infrequent failure events, by considering different form of data obtained from different systems. Estimates of failure function and reliabilities for complex systems composed of two or more items in parallel or in mixed connections can be done by further application of proposed method.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.20 no.4 s.72
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• pp.20-28
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• 2005

In this paper, the methodology for the reliability estimation of buried pipeline with longitudinal gouges and dent is presented and the limit state of buried pipeline is formulated by failure assessment diagram(FAD). The reliability of buried pipeline with defects has been estimated by using a theory of failure probability. The failure probability is calculated by using the FORM(first order reliability method) and Monte Carlo simulation. The results out of two procedures have been compared each other. It is found that the FORM and Monte Carlo simulation give similar results for varying boundary conditions and various random variables. Furthermore, it is also recognized that the failure probability increases with increasing of dent depth, gouge depth, gouge length, operating pressure, pipe outside radius and decreasing the wall thickness. And it is found that the analysis by using the failure assessment diagram gives highly conservative results than those by using the theory of failure probability.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.29 no.5 s.236
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• pp.689-697
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• 2005

This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, $B_{10}$ life and its lower bound with $90\%$ confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.