• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• v.52 no.4
• /
• pp.461-473
• /
• 2024

This study focuses on the reliability of a transmission line under wind excitation and evaluates the failure probability using explicit data resources. The data-driven framework for calculating the failure probability of a transmission line subjected to wind loading is presented, and a probabilistic method for estimating the yearly extreme wind speeds in each wind direction is provided to compensate for the incompleteness of meteorological data. Meteorological data from the Xuwen National Weather Station are used to analyze the distribution characteristics of wind speed and wind direction, fitted with the generalized extreme value distribution. Then, the most vulnerable tower is identified to obtain the fragility curves in all wind directions based on uncertainty analysis. Finally, the failure probabilities are calculated based on the presented method. The simulation results reveal that the failure probability of the employed tower increases over time and that the joint probability distribution of the wind speed and wind direction must be considered to avoid overestimating the failure probability. Additionally, the mixed wind climates (synoptic wind and typhoon) have great influence on the estimation of structural failure probability and should be considered.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.22 no.1
• /
• pp.65-87
• /
• 2016

The wind velocity profile over the height of a structure in high intensity wind (HIW) events, such as downbursts, differs from that associated with atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) winds. Current design codes for lattice transmission structures contain only limited advice on the treatment of HIW effects, and structural design is carried out using wind load profiles and response factors derived for ABL winds. The present study assesses the load-deformation curve (capacity curve) of a transmission tower under modeled downburst wind loading, and compares it with that obtained for an ABL wind loading profile. The analysis considers nonlinear inelastic response under simulated downburst wind fields. The capacity curve is represented using the relationship between the base shear and the maximum tip displacement. The results indicate that the capacity curve remains relatively consistent between different downburst scenarios and an ABL loading profile. The use of the capacity curve avoids the difficulty associated with defining a reference wind speed and corresponding wind profile that are adequate and applicable for downburst and ABL winds, thereby allowing a direct comparison of response under synoptic and downburst events. Uncertainty propagation analysis is carried out to evaluate the tower capacity by considering the uncertainty in material properties and geometric variables. The results indicated the coefficient of variation of the tower capacity is small compared to those associated with extreme wind speeds.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.53-62
• /
• 2016

Extreme wind speeds at four sites including Mokpo, Gunsan, Incheon and Jeju near the Western Coast have been estimated with a tool of Monte Carlo simulation and typhoon data. Results of sensitivity analysis show that closeness between distance to the eye and the radius to maximum wind is most sensitive. While location angle and pressure deficit are sensitive too, but translation velocity is not. A standard typhoon, which results in extreme wind speeds having various return period, can be constructed by combination of parameter informations of each site. Then, with a numerical modelling of the typhoon, extreme surge heights having the same return period can also be obtained. To be added, by analysing the data which only including those based on navigable semicircle, it is possible to produce a standard typhoon which could result in setting-down of sea level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.16-24
• /
• 2014

Long-term measured wind data are absolutely necessary to estimate extreme offshore wind speed. However, it is almost impossible to collect offshore wind measured data. Therefore, typhoon simulation is widely used to analyze offshore wind conditions. In this paper, 74 typhoons which affected the western sea of Korea during 1978-2012(35 years) were simulated using Holland(1980) model. The results showed that 49.02 m/s maximum wind speed affected by BOLAVEN(1215) at 100 m heights of HeMOSU-1 (Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unit - 1) was the biggest wind speed for 35 years. Meanwhile, estimated wind speeds were compared with observed data for MUIFA, BOLAVEN, SANBA at HeMOSU-1. And to estimate extreme wind speed having return periods, extreme analysis was conducted by assuming 35 annual maximum wind speed at four site(HeMOSU-1, Gunsan, Mokpo and Jeju) in western sea of the Korean Peninsular to be Gumbel distribution. As a results, extreme wind speed having 50-year return period was 50 m/s, that of 100-year was 54.92 m/s at 100 m heights, respectively. The maximum wind speed by BOLAVEN could be considered as a extreme winds having 50-year return period.

• New & Renewable Energy
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2021

To determine the wind turbine class in the offshore of the Korean Peninsula, the reference wind speed for a 50-y return period at the hub height of a wind turbine was estimated using the reanalysis data sets. The most recent reanalysis data, ERA5, showed the highest correlation coefficient (R) of 0.82 with the wind speed measured by the Southwest offshore meteorological tower. However, most of the reanaysis data sets except CFSR underestimated the annual maximum wind speed. The gust factor of converting the 1 h-average into the 10 min-average wind speed was 1.03, which is the same as the WMO reference, using several meteorological towers and lidar measurements. Because the period, frequency, and path of typhoons invading the Korean Peninsula has been changing owing to the climate effect, significant differences occurred in the estimation of the extreme wind speed. Depending on the past data period and length, the extreme wind speed differed by more than 30% and the extreme wind speed decreased as the data period became longer. Finally, a reference wind speed map around the Korean Peninsula was drawn using the data of the last 10 years at the general hub-height of 100 m above the sea level.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.355-372
• /
• 2013

The Gringorten estimator has been extensively used in extreme value analysis of wind speed records to obtain unbiased estimates of design wind speeds. This paper reviews the derivation of the Gringorten estimator for the mean plotting position of extremes drawn from parents of the exponential type and demonstrates how it eliminates most of the bias caused by the classical Weibull estimator. It is shown that the coefficients in the Gringorten estimator are the asymptotic values for infinite sample sizes, whereas the estimator is most often used for small sample sizes. The principles used by Gringorten are used to derive a new Consistent Linear Unbiased Estimator (CLUE) for the mean plotting positions for the Fisher Tippett Type 1, Exponential and Weibull distributions and for the associated standard deviations. Analytical and Bootstrap methods are used to calibrate the bias error in each of the estimators and to show that the CLUE are accurate to better than 1%.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.8 no.6
• /
• pp.389-406
• /
• 2005

The results of reference wind speed calculation in Croatia as a base for the revision of the Croatian standards for wind loads upon structures are presented. Wind speed averaged over 10 minutes, at 10 m height, in a flat, open terrain, with a 50-year mean return period is given for 27 meteorological stations in Croatia. It is shown that the greatest part of Croatia is covered with expected reference wind speeds up to 25 m/s. Exceptions are stations with specific anemometer location open to the bura wind which is accelerated due to the channelling effects of local orography and the nearby mountain passes where the expected reference wind speed ranges between 38 m/s and 55 m/s. The methodology for unifying all available information from wind measurements regardless of the averaging period is discussed by analysing wind speed variability at the meteorological station in Hvar.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.203-217
• /
• 2018

For this study, WRF numerical modeling was performed, using RDAPS information for input data on typhoons affecting the Korean peninsula to produce wind data of 700hPa. RAM numerical modeling was also used to calculate 3-second gusts as the extreme wind speed. After comparing wind speeds at an altitude of 10 m to evaluate the feasibility of WRF numerical modeling, modeled values were found to be similar with measured ones, reflecting change tendencies well. Therefore, the WRF numerical modeling results were verified. As a result of comparing and analyzing these wind speeds, as calculated through RAM numerical modeling, to evaluate applicability for disaster preparedness, change tendencies were observed to be similar between modeled and measured values. In particular, modeled values were slightly higher than measured ones, indicating applicability for the prevention of possible damage due to gales. Our analysis of 3-second gusts during the study period showed a high distribution of 3-second gusts in the southeast region of the Korean peninsula from 2002-2006. The frequency of 3-second gusts increased in the central north region of Korea as time progressed. Our analysis on the characteristics of 3-second gusts during years characterized by El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ or La Nina showed greater strength during hurricanes that affected the Korean peninsula in El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ years.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 1990.04a
• /
• pp.31-36
• /
• 1990

The probabilistic characteristics of wind loads have been analyzed using statistical data on wind speeds, pressure coefficient, exposure coefficient, and gust factor. The wind speed data collected in 25 nationwide weather stations have been modified to be consistent in measuring height, exposure condition as well as averaging time, Having performed Monte Carlo simulation for various heights and site conditions, the statistical models of wind loads were determined, in which Type-I extreme value distribution has been applied. The models also incorporate a reduction factor of 0.85 to account for the reduced probability that the maximum wind speed will occur in a direction most unfavorable to the response of structure.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.4 no.3
• /
• pp.197-212
• /
• 2001

Observations of extreme wind speeds in the United Kingdom from 1970 to 1980, corrected for the influence of upwind ground roughness and topography, have been analysed using the recently-developed "Improved Method of Independent Storms" (IMIS). The results have been used to compile two new maps of base wind speed and to confirm the climatic factors in current use. One map is 'irrespective' of wind direction and the other is 'equally weighted' by direction. The 'equally weighted' map is expected to be more consistently reliable and appropriate for use with the climatic factors for the design of buildings and structures.