• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.158-158
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• 2018

Drought is a recurrent natural hazard in Bangladesh. It has significant impacts on agriculture, environment, and society. Well-timed information on the onset, extent, intensity, duration, and impacts of drought can mitigate the potential drought-related losses. Thus, drought characteristics need to be explained in terms of frequency, severity, and duration. This paper aims to characterize the spatial and temporal pattern of meteorological drought using EDI and illustrated drought severity over Bangladesh. Twenty-seven (27) station-based daily rainfall data for the study period of 1981-2015 were used to calculate the EDI values over Bangladesh. The evaluation of EDI is conducted for 4 sub-regions over the country to confirm the historical drought record-developed at the regional scale. The finding shows that on average, the frequency of severe to extreme drought is approximately 0.7 events per year. As a result of the regional analysis, most of the recorded historical drought events were successfully detected during the study period. Additionally, the seasonal analysis showed that the extreme droughts were frequently hit in northwestern, middle portion of the eastern and small portion of central parts of Bangladesh during the Kharif(wet) and Rabi(dry) seasons. The severe drought was affected recurrently in the central and northern regions of the country during all cropping seasons. The study also points out that the northern, south-western and central regions in Bangladesh are comparatively vulnerable to both extreme and severe drought event. The study showed that EDI would be a useful tool to identify the drought-prone area and time and potentially applicable to the climate change-induced drought evolution monitoring at regional to the national level in Bangladesh. The outcome of the present study can be used in taking anticipatory strategies to mitigate the drought damages on agricultural production as well as human sufferings in drought-prone areas of Bangladesh.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.163-163
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• 2023

Flooding has become an increasing event which is one of the major natural disasters responsible for direct economic damage in South Korea. Driven by climate change, precipitation extremes play significant role on the flood damage and its further increase is expected to exacerbate the socioeconomic impact in the country. However, the empirical evidence associating changes in precipitation extremes to the historical flood damage is limited. Thus, there is a need to assess the causal relationship between changes in precipitation extremes and flood damage, especially in agricultural region like Chungcheong region in South Korea. The spatial and temporal changes of precipitation extremes from 10 synoptic stations based on daily precipitation data were analyzed using the ClimPACT2 tool and Mann-Kendall test. The four precipitation extreme indices consisting of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of very heavy precipitation wet days (R30 mm), maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day), and simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), which represent changes in intensity, frequency, and duration, respectively, and the time series data on flooded area and flood damage from 1985 to 2020 were used to investigate the causal relationship in the ARDL-ECM framework and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The trend results showed that majority of the precipitation indices indicated positive trends, however, CWD showed no significant changes. ARDL-ECM framework showed that there was a long-run relationship among the variables. Further analysis on the empirical results showed that flooded area and Rx1day have significant positive impacts on the flood damage in both short and long-runs while R30 mm only indicated significant positive impact in the short-run, both in the current period, which implies that an increase in flooded area, Rx1day, and R30 mm will cause an increase in the flood damage. The pairwise Granger analysis showed unidirectional causality from the flooded area, R30 mm, Rx1day, and SDII to flood damage. Thus, these precipitation indices could be useful as indicators of pluvial flood damage in Chungcheong region of South Korea.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.6B
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• pp.561-569
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• 2010

In this study, the impact of climate change on extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate. The depth-area-duration analysis for characterizing an extreme precipitation event provides a basis for analysing drought events when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future monthly precipitation time series is based on a KMA regional climate model which has a $27km{\times}27km$ spatial resolution, and the drought severity is computed using the standardized precipitation index. As a result, agricultural drought risk is likely to increase especially in short duration, while hydrologic drought risk will greatly increase in all durations. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.243-247
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• 2016

Driving Event Data such as the rapid acceleration, the rapid deceleration, the sudden braking, and the sudden departure, and over speeding provide important information to predict or analyze the driving habits and accident risk of a driver. Most of the data that represent the driver's driving habits generally fit to the parametric distribution, whereas extreme parts of the data to estimate the accident risk of a driver may not. This paper presents an empirical distribution that is divided into two regions, one is from the normal distribution, and the other is from the general pareto distribution for the driving habits of a driver.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.178-181
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• 2008

Although endovascular intervention is the first-line treatment of intracranial aneurysm, intraprocedural rupture or extravasation is still an endangering event. We describe two interesting cases of extravasation during embolotherapy for ruptured peripheral cerebral pseudoaneurysms. Two male patients were admitted after development of sudden headache with presentation of intracerebral and subarachnoid hemorrhage, respectively. Initial angiographic assessment failed to uncover any aneurysmal dilatation in both patients. Two weeks afterwards, catheter angiography revealed aneurysms each in the peripheral middle cerebral artery and anterior inferior cerebellar artery. Under a general anesthesia, endovascular embolization was attempted without systemic heparinization. In each case, sudden extravasation was noted around the aneurysm during manual injection of contrast after microcatheter navigation. Immediate computed tomographic scan showed a large amount of contrast collection within the brain, but they tolerated and made an unremarkable recovery thereafter. Intraprocedural extravasation is an endangering event and needs prompt management, however proximal plugging with coil deployment can be sufficient alternative, if one confronts with peripheral pseudoaneurysm. Peculiar angiographic features are deemed attributable to extremely fragile, porous vascular wall of the pseudoaneurysm. Accordingly, it should be noted that extreme caution being needed to handle such a friable vascular lesion.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.5
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• pp.101-108
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• 2017

Recently, the occurrence of landslides has been increasing over the years due to the extreme weather event. Developments of landslides monitoring technology that reduce damage caused by landslide are urgently needed. Therefore, in this study, a strain ratio sensor was developed to predict the ground behavior during the slope failure, and the change in surface ground displacement was observed as slope failed on the field model experiment. As a result, in the slope failure, the ground displacement process increases the risk of collapse as the inverse displacement approaches zero. It is closely related to the prediction of precursor. In all cases, increase in displacement and reverse speed of inverse displacement with time was observed during the slope failure, and it is very important event for monitoring collapse phenomenon of risky slopes. In the future, it can be used as disaster prevention technology to contribute in reduction of landslide damage and activation of measurement industry.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.605-625
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• 2017

This paper presents proportional odds cure models to allow spatial correlations by including spatial frailty in the interval censored data setting. Parametric cure rate models with independent and dependent spatial frailties are proposed and compared. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms that lead to the event of interest; in addition, the number of competing causes which may be responsible for the occurrence of the event of interest follows a Geometric distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used in a Bayesian framework for inferential purposes. For model comparison some Bayesian criteria were used. An influence diagnostic analysis was conducted to detect possible influential or extreme observations that may cause distortions on the results of the analysis. Finally, the proposed models are applied for the analysis of a real data set on smoking cessation. The results of the application show that the parametric cure model with frailties under the first activation scheme has better findings.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.450-465
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to examine the spatial characteristics of relationships between the intensity of extreme climate events driven by typhoons and the magnitude of economic damages at local municipality scales across the Republic of Korea for the recent 15-year period (2000~2014). As results, it is observed that the intensity of extreme temperature events such as heavy rainfall and gusty wind accounts for 50% of the damages magnitude across Korea, while the correlation between the two at the Si-Gun municipality level regionally varies. Positive correlations between the intensity of heavy rainfall events and typhoon damages are observed in the southeastern regions of Taebaek-Sobaek mountain ridges, while such statistically-significant patterns are not detected in the northwestern region. In contrast, statistically-significant positive correlations between the strength of gusty winds and damages are found in most of regions except for some interior regions and northeastern mountainous regions. Classification maps of major extreme climate event types (heavy rainfall-prevailing type, gusty wind-prevailing type, and their combined type) leading to typhoon damages at the Si-Gun municipality scales provided in this study may help local administrations to make the optimized policies for typhoon damage mitigation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.671-680
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• 2019

Many researches illustrated that the magnitude and frequency of hydrological event would increase in the future due to changes of hydrological cycle components according to climate change. However, few studies performed quantitative analysis and evaluation of future rainfall in North Korea, where the damage caused by extreme precipitation is expected to occur as in South Korea. Therefore, this study predicted the extreme precipitation change of North Korea in the future (2020-2060) compared to the current (1981-2017) using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. This study conducted nonstationary frequency analysis considering the external factors (mean precipitation of JFM (Jan.-Mar.), AMJ (Apr.-Jun.), JAS (Jul.-Sept.), OND (Oct.-Dec.)) of the HadGEM2-AO model simulated according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. In order to select external factors that have a similar tendency with extreme rainfall events in North Korea, the maximum annual rainfall data was obtained by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Correlation analysis was performed between the extracted residue and the external factors. Considering selected external factors, nonstationary GEV model was constructed. In RCP4.5, four of the eight stations tended to decrease in future extreme precipitation compared to the present climate while three stations increased. On the other hand, in RCP8.5, two stations decreased while five stations increased.

• Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.63-67
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• 2008

This study focuses on assessing the security ri sk or the terrorism in chemical process industries. This research modifies conventional method for assessing the terrorism risk. The risk assessment method is developed and it is implemented as software to analyze the possibility of terrorism and sabotage. This program includes five steps; asset characterization, threat assessment, vulnerability analysis, risk assessment and new countermeasures. It is a systematic, risk based approach in which risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the likelihood of adversary attack, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. The reliability of the program is verified using a dock zone case. The case dock zone includes a storage farm, a manufacturing plant, an electrical supply utility, a hydrotreater unit, many containers, and administration buildings. This study represents chemical terrorism response technology, the prevention plan, and new countermeasure to mitigate by using risk assessment methods in the chemical industry and public sector. This study suggests an effective approach to the chemical terrorism response management.