• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.150-158
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• 2019

Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.177-191
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• 2022

This paper addresses the use of machine learning methods for causal estimation of treatment effects from observational data. Even though conducting randomized experimental trials is a gold standard to reveal potential causal relationships, observational study is another rich source for investigation of exposure effects, for example, in the research of comparative effectiveness and safety of treatments, where the causal effect can be identified if covariates contain all confounding variables. In this context, statistical regression models for the expected outcome and the probability of treatment are often imposed, which can be combined in a clever way to yield more efficient and robust causal estimators. Recently, targeted maximum likelihood estimation and causal random forest is proposed and extensively studied for the use of data-adaptive regression in estimation of causal inference parameters. Machine learning methods are a natural choice in these settings to improve the quality of the final estimate of the treatment effect. We explore how we can adapt the design and training of several machine learning algorithms for causal inference and study their finite-sample performance through simulation experiments under various scenarios. Application to the percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) data shows that these adaptations can improve simple linear regression-based methods.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제45권5호
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• pp.497-510
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• 2019

Objectives: The aim of this study was to secure the reliability of using the CalTOX model when evaluating LADD (or ADD) and Risk (or HQ) among local residents for the emission of BTEX (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, Xylene) and by closely examining the difference in the confidence interval of the assessment outcomes according to the difference in the probability density function of input variables. Methods: The assessment was made by dividing it according to the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function in meteorological variables of the model with log-normal distribution and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. A T-test was carried out in order to analyze the difference in confidence interval of the two assessment results. Results: It was evaluated to be 1.46E-03 mg/kg-d in LADD of Benzene, 1.96E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Toluene, 8.15E-05 mg/kg-d in ADD of Ethylbenzene, and 2.30E-04 mg/kg-d in ADD of Xylene. As for the predicted confidence interval in LADD and ADD, there was a significant difference between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods in $LADD_{Inhalation}$ for Benzene, and in $ADD_{Inhalation}$ and ADD for Toluene and Xylene. It appeared to be 3.58E-05 for risk in Benzene, 3.78E-03 for HQ in Toluene, 1.48E-03 for HQ in Ethylbenzene, and 3.77E-03 for HQ in Xylene. As a result of the HQ in Toluene and Xylene, the difference in confidence interval between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods was shown to be significant. Conclusions: The human risk assessment for BTEX was made by dividing it into the method ($I^{\dagger}$) of inputting the probability density function of meteorological variables for the CalTOX model with log-normal distribution, and the method of inputting ($II^{\ddagger}$) after grasping the optimal probability density function using @Risk. As a result, it was identified that Risk (or HQ) is the same, but that there is a significant difference in the confidence interval of Risk (or HQ) between the $I^{\dagger}$ and $II^{\ddagger}$ methods.

• 한국방사선학회논문지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.471-476
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• 2022

전립샘암의 방사선치료법인 3D CRT와 IMRT 5 portals, IMRT 9 portals에서 정상장기인 대장과 갑상샘의 광중성자 선량 피폭으로 인하여 암이 발생할 확률을 연구하고자 한다. 전립샘암 총 처방선량 6600 cGy로 1회당 220 cGy, 총 횟수는 30회의 분할조사를 적용하였다. 실험에 사용한 의료용 선형가속기의 치료테이블(couch)위에 Rando phantom을 setup 한 후에 phantom의 대장, 갑상샘의 해당부위에 중성자 광자극발광선량계 (Optically stimulated luminescence albedo neutron dosimeter)를 위치시켜 측정하였다. 전립샘암 3D CRT시 정상장기인 대장과 갑상샘의 광중성자 선량으로 인한 2차 암의 발생확률은 10,000명 당 1.8명 이었다. 그리고 IMRT 5 portals은 10,000명 당 8.7명으로, 3D CRT에 비해서 약 5배 컸다. IMRT 9 portals는 1,000명 당 1.2명이 암이 발생할 확률이 있음의 결과를 도출하였다. 본 연구를 바탕으로 방사선 치료 시 발생하는 광중성자 선량으로 인하여 2차 방사선 피폭선량의 위험성을 연구하여, 향후 방사선의 확률적 영향과 방사선 방호에 관련하여 유용한 자료로 활용될 것으로 사료된다.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.109-115
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• 1990

국내 풍하중의 합리적인 확률모형을 개발하기 위하여 전국 25개 지역에서 수집된 풍속자료를 일관성을 가지도록 측정높이, 노풍도, 측정시간등에 대한 보정을 실시하여 이용하였다. 풍하중의 활률특성에 영향을 미치는 요소로는 풍속, 풍력계수, 속도압계수, 가스트계수 등의 확률특성이 고려되었다. 풍하중을 결정하는 각종 계수들의 확률특성으로부터 풍하중의 확률특성을 분석하기 위해서 널리 이용되는 Monte Carlo Simulation기법을 이용하였다. 풍하중의 확률분포로는 풍속과 같이 Gumbel의 Type-I 극한값 분포를 적용하였으며 simulation결과에서 상부 10%만을 이용하였다. 또한 어떤 특정 구조물에 최대풍속이 가장 불리한 방향에서 발생할 확률이 낮은 것을 고려하여 감소계수 0.85를 적용하여 모형화하였다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.177-191
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• 2000

This paper presents an approach for evaluating directionality effects for both wind speeds and wind loads in hurricane-prone regions. The focus of this study is on directional wind loads on low-rise structures. Using event-based simulation, hurricane directionality effects are determined for an open-terrain condition at various locations in the southeastern United States. The wind speed (or wind load) directionality factor, defined as the ratio of the N-year mean recurrence interval (MRI) wind speed (or wind load) in each direction to the non-directional N-year MRI wind speed (or wind load), is less than one but increases toward unity with increasing MRI. Thus, the degree of conservatism that results from neglecting directionality effects decreases with increasing MRI. It may be desirable to account for local exposure effects (siting effects such as shielding, orientation, etc.) in design. To account for these effects in a directionality adjustment, the factor described above for open terrain would need to be transformed to other terrains/exposures. A "local" directionality factor, therefore, must effectively combine these two adjustments (event directionality and siting or local exposure directionality). By also considering the direction-specific aerodynamic coefficient, a direction-dependent wind load can be evaluated. While the data necessary to make predictions of directional wind loads may not routinely be available in the case of low-rise structures, the concept is discussed and illustrated in this paper.

• Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.69-73
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• 2011

Food borne pathogens are a growing concern for human health and food safety throughout the world. Milk and dairy products are commonly associated with spoilage or contamination from a wide variety of physical, microbial, and chemical hazardous. Microbiological risk analysis consists of three components: risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication, and overall objective of this process is ultimately public health protection. The microbiological risk assessment is useful tool to evaluate food safety as it is based on a scientific approach. In addition risk assessment process includes quantitative estimation of the probability of occurrence of microbial hazards to evaluate more accurate human exposure. The aim of this study is to review the microbiological risk assessment on the prevalence of bacterial foodborne pathogens in milk and dairy products.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제59권5호
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• pp.853-866
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• 2016

This paper examines a methodology for computing the probability of structural failure of reinforced concrete beams subjected to fire. The significant load variables considered are dead load, sustained live load and fire temperature. Resistance is expressed in terms of moment capacity with random variables taken as yield strength of steel, concrete class (or grade of concrete), beam width and depth. The flexural capacity is determined based on the design equations recommended in Indian standard IS456:2000. Simplified method named $500^{\circ}C$ isotherm method detailed in Eurocode 2 is incorporated for fire design. A transient thermal analysis is conducted using finite element software ANSYS$^{(R)}$ Release15. Reliability is evaluated from the initial state to 4h of fire exposure based on the first order reliability method (FORM). A procedure is coded in MATLAB for finding the reliability index. This procedure is validated with available literature. The effect of various parameters like effective cover, yield strength of steel, grade of concrete, distribution of reinforcement bars and aggregate type on reliability indices are studied. Parameters like effective cover of concrete, yield strength of steel has a significant effect on reliability of beams. Different failure modes like limit state of flexure and limit state of shear are checked.

• 한국의학물리학회지:의학물리
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.146-155
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• 2016

As the probability of exposure to radiation increases due to an increase in the use of radioisotopes and radiation generators, the importance of a radiation safety management field is being highlighted. We intend to help radiation workers with exposure management by identifying the degree of radiation exposure and contamination to determine an efficient method of radiation safety management. The personal exposure doses of the radiation workers at the Korea Institute of Radiological & Medical Sciences measured every quarter during a five-year period from Jan. 1, 2011 till Dec. 31, 2015 were analyzed using a TLD (thermoluminescence dosimeter). The spatial dose rates of radiation-controlled areas were measured using a portable radioscope, and the level of surface contamination was measured at weekly intervals using a piece of smear paper and a low background alpha/beta counter. Though the averages of the depth doses and the surface doses in 2012 increased from those in 2011 by about 14%, the averages were shown to have decreased every year after that. The exposure dose of 27 mSv in 2012 increased from that in 2011 in radiopharmaceutical laboratories and, in the case of the spatial dose rate, the rate of decrease in 2012 was shown to be similar to the annual trend of the whole institute. In the case of the surface contamination level, as the remaining radiation-controlled area with the exception of the I-131 treatment ward showed a low value less than $1.0kBq/m^2$, the annual trend of the I-131 treatment ward was shown to be similar to that of the entire institute. In conclusion, continuous attention should be paid to dose monitoring of the radiation-controlled areas where unsealed sources are handled and the workers therein.

• 생물환경조절학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.226-234
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 적설하중 산정을 위한 노출계수를 결정하는데 필요한 기초자료를 제공하기 위하여 각국의 온실구조설계기준에서 제시된 노출계수들을 비교분석하였고 우리나라의 각 지역별 노출계수를 결정하고 결정방법에 대하여 개선방안을 분석하였으며 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 각국의 노출계수 기준을 비교분석한 결과 노출계수에 영향을 미치는 주요인자는 노풍도, 풍속, 바람막이의 유무인 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 일본을 제외한 각국의 기준을 종합하면 노출계수는 3가지 단계로 구분되며 바람에 완전히 노출되고 바람이 센 지역의 노출계수는 0.8(0.9), 바람에 부분적으로 노출된 지역은 1.0(1.1), 바람막이가 조밀하게 설치된 지역은 1.2로 나타낼 수 있다. 따라서 온실의 적설하중 산정을 위한 노출계수는 적용의 용이성을 고려한다면 3단계로 구분하여 제시하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다. ISO 4355기준에 따라 우리나라 94개 지역에 대한 노출계수를 산정한 결과 대관령 (0.5)과 여수(0.6)를 제외한 모든 지역의 노출계수가 1.0과 0.8 두 가지로 대별되었다. 우리나라의 내륙지역이 해안지역에 비해 상대적으로 더 큰 강설 확률을 가지며 최대풍속이 $5m{\cdot}s^{-1}$ 이상인 일수가 더 작은 것으로 분석되었다. 우리나라의 노출계수는 3단계로 구분하여 해안 지역을 중심으로 한 바람이 강한 지역을 0.8로 하고 내륙지역은 1.0으로 하며 촘촘한 바람막이가 있는 경우는 일본을 제외한 각국에서 적용하고 있는 값인 1.2로 결정하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단되며, 임계풍속 $5.0m{\cdot}s^{-1}$ 이상 일 수에 따른 지역별 구체적인 노출계수는 추가적인 연구를 통해 결정할 필요가 있다.