• 제목/요약/키워드: exposure probability

검색결과 167건 처리시간 0.02초

유동인구 밀집지역 인근의 도로구간별 배출량 산정 및 보행자 노출 강도 평가 (Estimation of Link-Based Traffic-Related Air Pollutant Emissions and the Exposure Intensity on Pedestrian Near Busy Streets)

  • 이상은;신명환;이석주;홍다희;장동익;길지훈;정택호;이태우;홍유덕
    • 한국분무공학회지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to estimate the level of exposure of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) on the pedestrians in Seoul area. The road network's link-based pollutant emission was calculated by using a set of mobile source emission factor package and associated activity information. The population information, which is the number of pedestrian, was analyzed in conjunction with the link-based traffic emissions in order to quantify exposure level by selected 23 spots. We proposed the Exposure Intensity, which is defined by the amount of traffic emission and the population, to quantify the probability of exposure of pedestrian. Link-based traffic NOx and PM emissions vary by up to four times depending on the location of each spot. The Hot-spots is estimated to be around 1.8 times higher Exposure Intensity than the average of the 23 selected spots. The information of Exposure Intensity of each spot allows us to develop localized policies for air quality and health. Even in the same area, the Exposure Intensity over time also shows a large fluctuation, which gives suggestions for establishing site-specific counter-measures.

PRACTICAL APPROACHES TO RISK MANAGEMENT FOR GLOBAL CONTRACTORS

  • Seung Heon Han;Du Yon Kim;Han Him Kim
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.1231-1236
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    • 2005
  • Global construction projects manifest more risks than do other industries. Often, firms doing business in construction markets find these risks intimidating. To secure corresponding profits, many global contractors attempt to forecast the effects of risks and establish risk management strategies. However, one key problem with present-day risk management methods is that they are basically analytical or mathematical-oriented approaches which are not easy to adopt in real business. Based on preliminary investigations and evaluations of current tools, this research elicits more practical algorithms for risk checklist by constructing risk scenarios over the whole period of project execution. For the application of the algorithms, a "SE/RF" (Source-Event/Regular-Floating) checklist is suggested, which sorts out risk sources and their subsequent events, as well as dividing various risk factors into either regular or floating categories. In addition, the "PIS" (Probability-Impact-Significance) method is introduced, in place of traditional "PI" (Probability-Impact) methods, by adding the additional criterion of "risk significance" to determine the degree of risk exposure in a more realistic way. As a result, we draw the significant finding that the "PIS" method presents a closer evaluation regarding degree of risk exposure as compared to the level of expert judgments than those from traditional methods. Finally, we provide an integrated procedure for international project risk management with all of the research achievements being incorporated.

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감마나이프 방사선 수술시 2차 발암 확률에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Probability of Secondary Carcinogenesis during Gamma Knife Radiosurgery)

  • 이주아;김기홍
    • 한국방사선학회논문지
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.843-849
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구에서는 감마나이프를 이용한 방사선 수술 시 주변 정상 장기들의 피폭선량을 측정하여 2차 발암확률을 분석하고자 한다. 인체 조직 등가 물질로 구성된 소아 팬텀(Model 706-G, CIRS, USA)에 종양 볼륨은 0.25 cm3, 0.51 cm3, 1.01 cm3, 2.03 cm3 총 4개로 설정하였으며, 평균 선량은 18.4 ± 3.4 Gy로 하였다. 감마나이프 수술 장비의 테이블위에 Rando phantom을 설치한 후에 OSLD nanoDot 선량계를 Right eye, Left eye, Thyroid, Thymus gland, Right lung, Left lung 에 위치시켜 각각의 피폭선량을 측정하였다. 청신경초종질환의 감마나이프 방사선 수술 시 주변 정상 장기들의 방사선 피폭으로 인한 암 발생확률은 종양 볼륨 2. 03 cm3에서 100,000명 당 4.08명의 암이 발생함을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 정위적 방사선 수술 시 발생할 수 있는 2차 방사선 피폭선량의 위험성을 연구하여 향후 확률적 영향과 관련하여 유용한 자료로 활용될 것으로 사료된다.

근로시간대별 근로자의 업무관련 건강문제에 영향을 미치는 요인 (A Study on Factors Impacting Work-related Health Problems in Different Work-hour Groups)

  • 백은미;정혜선
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.383-393
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The proportion of those working beyond 53 hours a week in 2018 has reached 16.8% of the total number of workers in the Republic of Korea (Statistics Korea, 2018). Although there are many studies that have dealt with the correlation of long working hours and increasing risk of work-related health problems, studies dealing with the factors impacting work-related health problems of workers according to their working hours are few. This study aims to ascertain factors impacting work-related health problems of workers based on their working hours through thorough research on their work environment. Methods: Necessary factors for this study were extracted from 'the 4th Korean Working Conditions Survey to analyze details on normal characteristics and work environments used for the study analysis, work hours, and health problems related to work. Results: The results are as follows: First, men showed a greater probability of exposure to work-related health problems than did women, especially in the 50s age group, which showed the highest potential for health problems from work among age groups. Second, service providers and sales professionals showed a higher probability of work-related health problems. Third, for the work environment, health problems at work related to vibration, noise, chemical and poison exposure, exhaustion, pain, standing position, and repeated motion showed a higher probability if the work hours are long. Conclusions: This study suggests that the minimization of overtime labor would prevent work-related health problems and diseases, improve the well-being of workers, and decrease the negative impact on workers in the subject area.

환경성 발암물질의 용량-반응모델의 이론적 근거와 응용에 관한 연구 - 음용수 중 chloroform을 중심으로 (Scientific rationale and applicability of dose-response models for environmental carcinogens)

  • 신동천;정용;김종만;이성임;황만식
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 1996
  • This study described methods to predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995. As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper boud unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about $1.9\times10^{-6}$, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK II) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about $2.4\times10^{-6}\;and\;7.9\times10^{-5}$ at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.

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확률적 평가에 의한 건설공사 비용 위험도 측정의 적용성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Application of Cost Risk Exposure methods by the Probabilistic Evaluation on the Construction Projects)

  • 조재호;전재열
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2000
  • 건설공사비의 총액을 산정하기 위한 예비 견적은 위험의 정도를 감수하고 있다. 즉 대형 건설공사의 경우 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 수행되어지며 공종에 따른 공사기간별로 초기 계획단계보다 실행견적가에 미달하는 위험과 관련하여 발생되어진다. 이는 신뢰성 있는 유사비용데이터 수집의 어려움과 데이터의 수가 절대적으로 부족할 뿐만 아니라 이러한 수집된 비용데이터 조차도 건설공사의 특성을 충분히 반영하지 못하기 때문이다. 또한 통산 비용산정방법에 있어서 기존에 주로 활용되는 확정론적 비용평가는 다수의 불확실성을 띄고 있는 건설공사의 특수성을 반영하지 못하고 있다. 따라서 국내의 비용평가시 다루어지지 않고 있는 비용의 확률적 개념을 도입함으로서 비용의 위험도를 측정하고 비용요인들간의 상관성과 부위별 비용특성을 반영하여 견적시 과대 과소의 오차합계를 최소화하기 위한 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 여기서 위험도는 예비견적비가 실제 발주자 집행 실행견적가 보다 적게 될 확률로서 정의하고 본 방법의 제시에 따른 사례의 적용을 통해 객관적 인 검증을 연구의 목적으로 한다. 연구의 방법은 첫 번째, 비용 데이터로부터 직접적으로 위험도를 평가하는 통계학적 방법과 두 번째, 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 방법을 이용하여 비용데이터로부터 간접적으로 위험도 평가방법을 제안하고자한다. 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 방법은 단위 요소비용의 분포특성과 비용상관성으로부터 총비용의 확률분포를 생성하여 신뢰성 있는 비용 데이터의 확장과 해석이 가능한 방법으로 실제상황에 접근된 위험도 평가가 가능할 것이다.

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Effect of limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) on the fire safety of concrete structures

  • Gupta, Sanchit;Singh, Dheerendra;Gupta, Trilok;Chaudhary, Sandeep
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.263-278
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    • 2022
  • Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) is a low carbon alternative to conventional cement. Literature shows that using limestone and calcined clay in LC3 increases the thermal degradation of LC3 pastes and can increase the magnitude of fire risk in LC3 concrete structures. Higher thermal degradation of LC3 paste prompts this study toward understanding the fire performance of LC3 concrete and the associated magnitude of fire risk. For fire performance, concrete prepared using ordinary Portland cement (OPC), pozzolanic Portland cement (PPC) and LC3 were exposed to 16 scenarios of different elevated temperatures (400℃, 600℃, 800℃, and 1000℃) for different durations (0.5 h, 1 h, 2 h, and 4 h). After exposure to elevated temperatures, mass loss, residual ultrasonic pulse velocity (rUPV) and residual compressive strength (rCS) were measured as the residual properties of concrete. XRD (X-ray diffraction), TGA (thermogravimetric analysis) and three-factor ANOVA (analysis of variance) are also used to compare the fire performance of LC3 with OPC and PPC. Monte Carlo simulation has been used to assess the magnitude of fire risk in LC3 structures and devise recommendations for the robust application of LC3. Results show that LC3 concrete has weaker fire performance, with average rCS being 11.06% and 1.73% lower than OPC and PPC concrete. Analysis of 106 fire scenarios, in Indian context, shows lower rCS and higher failure probability for LC3 (95.05%, 2.22%) than OPC (98.16%, 0.22%) and PPC (96.48%, 1.14%). For robust application, either LC3 can be restricted to residential and educational structures (failure probability <0.5%), or LC3 can have reserve strength (factor of safety >1.08).

Impact of multiple component deterioration and exposure conditions on seismic vulnerability of concrete bridges

  • Ghosh, Jayadipta;Padgett, Jamie E.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제3권5호
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    • pp.649-673
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    • 2012
  • Recent studies have highlighted the importance of accounting for aging and deterioration of bridges when estimating their seismic vulnerability. Effects of structural degradation of multiple bridge components, variations in bridge geometry, and comparison of different environmental exposure conditions have traditionally been ignored in the development of seismic fragility curves for aging concrete highway bridges. This study focuses on the degradation of multiple bridge components of a geometrically varying bridge class, as opposed to a single bridge sample, to arrive at time-dependent seismic bridge fragility curves. The effects of different exposure conditions are also explored to assess the impact of severity of the environment on bridge seismic vulnerability. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a representative class of aging multi-span reinforced concrete girder bridges typical of the Central and Southeastern United States. The results reveal the importance of considering multiple deterioration mechanisms, including the significance of degrading elastomeric bearings along with the corroding reinforced concrete columns, in fragility modeling of aging bridge classes. Additionally, assessment of the relative severity of exposure to marine atmospheric, marine sea-splash and deicing salts, and shows 5%, 9% and 44% reduction, respectively, in the median value bridge fragility for the complete damage state relative to the as-built pristine structure.

작업환경측정 자료를 활용한 Dichloromethane 노출 매트릭스 구축에 대한 연구 (Construction of an Exposure Matrix Using a Risk Assessment of Industries and Processes Involving Dichloromethane)

  • 이재환;박동욱;홍성철;하권철
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제36권5호
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    • pp.391-401
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    • 2010
  • A reduction in risk of occupational exposure to chemical hazards within the workplace has been the focus of attention both through industry initiatives and legislation. The aims of this study were to develop an exposure matrix by industry and process, and to apply this matrix to control the risk of occupational exposure to Dichloromethane (DCM). The exposure matrix is a tool to convert information on industry and process into information on occupational risk. The exposure matrix comprised industries and processes involving DCM, based on an exposure database provided by KOSHA (the Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency), which was gathered from a workplace hazards evaluation program in Korea. The risk assessment of the exposure matrix was performed using Hallmark risk assessment tool. The results of the risk assessment were indicated by a Danger Value (DV) calculated from the combination of hazard rating (HR), duration of use rating (DUR), and risk probability rating (RPR) of exposure to the chemical, and were divided into four control bands which were related to control measures. The applicability of the risk assessment of the exposure matrix was evaluated by a field study, and survey of the employees of the exposure matrix groups. Among 45 industries examined, this study found that greater attention should be paid to two industries: the manufacture of other optical instruments and photographic equipment, and the manufacture of printing ink, and to one process among 47 examined, the packing process in the manufacture of printing ink, because these were regarded as carrying the highest risk. This tool of a risk assessment for the exposure matrix can be applied as a general exposure information system for hazard control, risk quantification, setting the occupational exposure limit, and hazard surveillance. The exposure matrix includes workforce data, and it provides information on the numbers of exposed workers in Korea by agent, occupation, and level of exposure and risk.

휘발성 유기화합물에 대한 실내공기노출에 영향을 미치는 인자 (Parameters Affecting Indoor Air Exposure to Volatile Organic Compounds)

  • 조완근
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.47-51
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    • 1992
  • 수중에 존재하는 휘발성 유기화합물은 샤워를 하는동안 공기로 방출되고 공기농도는 샤워 변수에 따라 달라지는데, 이는 휘발성 유기화합물의 호기농도의 변화를 야기 시킨다. 본 연구에서는 샤워를 하는 동안 공기중의 클로로포픔 노출에 영향을 미치는 주요한 샤워변수(물온다 및 노출시간)를 클로로포픔 호기농도를 측정하여 검토 하였다. 크롤로포름 호기농도는 물의 온도와 노출 시간이 증가함에 따라 증가 하였다. 가장 큰 클로로포름 호기농도 차이를 나타내는 두개의 흡기 노출 조건은 미지근한 물을 이용한 5분 동안의 노출과 더운 물을 이용한 15분 동안의 노출이었다. 클로로포름 호기농도는 후자의 노출후에 전자의 경우보다 거의 3배 정도 높았다. 주요 샤워변수와 수중농도로 조정된 호기농도 사이의 수학모델은 0.0001의 확률에서의 데이타와 훌륭한 일치되는 결과를 나타내었다.

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