• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.25-34
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• 1997

This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation process to assess an uncertainty inherent in accident management. The need to work with rare event and limited data in accident management leads analysis to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approach using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited dat3 and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining and propagating fuzzy probabilities. finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the probability of a bottom head failure for the flooded case in the Peach Bottom BWR nuclear power plant.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.318-335
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• 2003

Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.619-632
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• 2014

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been widely used to evaluate the uncertainty of a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system code against a figure of merit. This uncertainty is typically evaluated based on the physical model's uncertainties determined by expert judgment. This paper introduces the application of data assimilation methodology to determine the uncertainty bands of the physical models, e.g., the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters, based upon the statistical approach rather than expert judgment. Data assimilation suggests a mathematical methodology for the best estimate bias and the uncertainties of the physical models which optimize the system response following the calibration of model parameters and responses. The mathematical approaches include deterministic and probabilistic methods of data assimilation to solve both linear and nonlinear problems with the a posteriori distribution of parameters derived based on Bayes' theorem. The inverse problem was solved analytically to obtain the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters assuming Gaussian distributions for the parameters and responses, and a sampling method was utilized to illustrate the non-Gaussian a posteriori distributions of parameters. SPACE is used to demonstrate the data assimilation method by determining the bias and the uncertainty bands of the physical models employing Bennett's heated tube test data and Becker's post critical heat flux experimental data. Based on the results of the data assimilation process, the major sources of the modeling uncertainties were identified for further model development.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제13D권6호
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• pp.823-832
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• 2006

소프트웨어(SW) 복제도 감정의 목적은 두 프로그램 사이의 동일 또는 유사성 정도를 판단하는 것으로, 컴퓨터프로그림 저작권 관련 분쟁해결의 주요한 기술적 판단근거를 제시하는 제도라 할 수 있다. SW감정을 진행함에 있어서 중요한 점은 감정인의 주관적 판단에 편중되지 않도록 하고, 신속 객관적인 감정의 수행으로 정확한 감정결과를 도출해내는 것이다. 그러나 현재까지 체계적인 감정기법의 표준화 연구 및 개발은 미비한 상태이며, SW감정 분야별(유형별) 감정기법 조차 전문 감정인들에 따라 그 접근방법이 천차만별이어서 뚜렷한 표준안이 제시되지 못하고 있다. 또한, 기 수행되었던 감정사례에 대한 실증적 분석 결과, 기존 감정 절차 및 기법의 오류 또는 감정인의 전문지식 결여 등의 문제가 잠재하여 일부 감정결과에 대한 객관성 및 정확성에 손상이 있음을 알 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 감정인에 따라 동일한 평가 항목에 대하여 서로 다른 결과가 도출될 수 있는 오차의 허용치를 감소시키기 위한 객관적인 평가 방법과 정형화된 SW복제도 감정기법의 표준화 모델을 제시한다. 특히, 기존 감정기법의 문제점 해결 및 보완 연구를 기반으로 감정범위의 설정, 감정기준 및 방법, 단위작업 프로세스 기준의 감정영역 및 감정항목 설정, 가중치 부여, 논리적 복제도와 물리적 복제도 산출 등에 초점을 맞추어 감정기법을 분석 평가한다. 따라서 SW복제도 감정 기법의 표준화 모델은 감정인의 주관적 판단에 의한 오류의 가능성을 최소화하고, 감정결과의 객관성 및 신뢰성을 한층 제고하기 위한 도구를 제공할 것이다.

• 대한인간공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한인간공학회 1997년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.313-319
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• 1997

There is currently a focus on usability of interactive computer software. Previous research in software ergonomics has indicated the importance of evaluating the usability of software user interfaces. Software developers, interface designers or human foctors engineers often confront the task of comparative evaluation among systems, versions or interface designs. This study presents a structured model for comparative evaluation of user interface designs using usability criteria and measures. The proposed model consists of twomain phases : the prescreening phase ad the evaluation phase. The first phase involves expert judgment-based approach with qualitative criteria. The prescreening phase uses absolute measurement analytic hierarchy process to filter possible altermative interfaces to a reasonable subset. The second phase involves user-based approach such as usability testing, with quantitative criteria. The objective of the evaluation phase is to evaluate a subset of altermatives using objective measures. A set of criteria and measures for evaluating the usability of computer software designs is presented. The proposed model provides practitioners with a structured approach to select the best interface based on usability criteria and measures.

• 한국인구학
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.161-189
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• 2010

인구추계 분야에서 경험한 최근의 발전 상황은 불확실성에 대한 정확한 이해와 이에 대한 적절한 방법론적 대처가 핵심적인 이슈 중의 하나임을 보여 주고 있다. 이러한 측면에서 본 연구는 1980년대 이후 점차 활용도가 높아지고 있는 확률적 인구추계의 주요 내용과 방법들을 소개하였다. 구체적으로 본 연구는, 첫째, 인구변동 요인들의 미래 추세 예측에 수반된 불확실성의 특성 그리고 이러한 불확실성의 처리 방법으로 전통적인 시나리오 접근과 상대적으로 최근에 주목을 받기 시작한 확률적 접근을 개관하였다. 시나리오 접근의 한계와 관련해서는 확률적 해석의 불가능, 시나리오의 경직성, 예측구간의 비일관성의 문제를 검토하였다. 둘째, 확률적 인구추계의 특성들을 살펴봄과 함께 인구변동 요인들에 대한 확률적 예측을 위해 현재까지 가장 빈번하게 활용되고 있는 전문가 판단법, 통계적 모형에 기초한 방법, 그리고 과거의 예측 오차를 활용한 방법의 주요 내용과 장단점을 살펴보았다. 마지막으로 이러한 논의를 기초로 인구추계에 있어서 확률적 접근이 해결해야 할 과제와 향후 발전 방향 그리고 인구추계 분야에서 이루어진 최근의 발전 상황들이 갖는 시사점을 논의하였다.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.338-346
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• 2003

Information Technology (IT) and the internet have been major drivers the changes in all aspects of the business processes and activities. They have brought major changes to the financial statements audit environment as well, which in turn has required modifications in audit procedures. There exist, however, certain difficulties with current audit procedures especially for the assessment of the level of control risk. This assessment is primarily based on the auditors' professional judgment and experiences, not based on the objective hies or criteria. To overcome these difficulties, this paper proposes a prototype decision support model named CRAS-CBR using case based reasoning (CBR) to support auditors in making their professional judgment on the assessment of the level of control risk of the general accounting system in the manufacturing industry. To validate the performance, we compare our proposed model with benchmark performances in terms of classification accuracy for the level of control risk. Our experimental results showed CRAS-CBR outperforms a statistical model (MDA) and staff auditor performance in average hit ratio.

• 중환자간호학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2017

Purpose : This concept analysis identified attributes and defined triage competency among emergency nurses. Method : Walker and Avant's approach was used to guide the concept analysis. A literature review was completed including 26 studies, 5 reports of related associations, and 5 books. Results : The concept of triage competency in emergency nurses was identified as five attributes: clinical judgment, expert assessment, management of medical resources, timely decision, and communication. Antecedents of the concept were triage education and emergency room experience. The consequences of the concept were efficiency of care, patient rating, and safety. Triage competency in emergency nurses was defined as the comprehensive ability to prioritize patients' urgency and allocate limited medical resources. Conclusion : This study is meaningful since it clarified triage competency among emergency nurses. The attributes and empirical indicators of this study will likely lay the foundation for development of triage competency metrics.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.331-343
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• 2002

We performed an importance analysis of In-Service Testing (157) components for Ulchin Unit 3 using the integrated evaluation method for categorizing component safety significance developed in this study. The developed method is basically aimed at having a PSA expert perform an importance analysis using PSA and its related information. The importance analysis using the developed method is initiated by ranking the component importance using quantitative PSA information. The importance analysis of the IST components not modeled in the PSA is performed through the engineering judgment, based on the expertise of PSA, and the quantitative and qualitative information for the 157 components. The PSA scope for importance analysis includes not only Level 1 and 2 internal PSA but also Level 1 external and shutdown/low power operation PSA. The importance analysis results of valves show that 167 (26.55%) of the 629 IST valves are HSSCs and 462 (73.45%) are LSSCs. Those of pumps also show that 28 (70%)of the 40157 pumps are HSSCs and 12 (30%) are LSSCs.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제49권3호
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• pp.63-68
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• 2007

The LRA(Logistic Regression Analysis) conducts a quantitative analysis by collecting a lot of samples and the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Program) makes use of expert decision influenced by subjective judgment to a certain degree. This study is to suggest a combination method in mapping landslide hazard by giving equal weight for the result of LRA and AHP. Topographic factors(slope, aspect, elevation), soil dram, soil depth and land use were adopted to classify landslide hazard areas. The three methods(LRA, AHP, the combined approach) was applied to a $520km^2$ region located in the middle of South Korea which have occurred 39 landslides during 1999 and 2003. The suggested method showed 58.9% matching rate for the real landslide sites comparing with the classified areas of high-risk landslide While LRA and AHP Showed 46.1% and 48.7% matching rates respectively. Further studies are recommended to find the optimal combining weight of LRA and AHP with more landslide data.