• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.557-572
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• 2009

This article examines the financial soundness of the government employee pension system(GEPS). We use a model that simplifies the existing GEPS considering survival probability distribution of the life of employees. Two approaches were selected for the research: One is the expected net value of pension for an individual employee and the other is the default probability of the system from Monte-carlo simulation. The outcome reveals following three possibilities. First of all, the individual expected net value presents unfairness between the retiree's premium and the benefit he/she receives. Secondly, the Monte-carlo simulation suggests that the default is highly likely to happen in less than 30 years. Thirdly, the governmental reserve and subsidy for GEPS should be required to a certain degree in order to alleviate the probability of default less than 5 percent for the next 30 years.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.113-125
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• 2008

Net present value (NPV) and return on investment (ROI) are commonly used to evaluate investment in new technologies. Sometimes, however, measuring the value of investment in new IT becomes very difficult due to its wide scope of application coupled with embedded options in its adoption. Therefore, comprehensive but easily understandable methodologies are needed to solve the complicated problems resulting from the complexity of new technologies. This paper employs a real option analysis to evaluate RFID adoption in the supply chain. Real options analysis should be a better way to evaluate a disruptive technology like RFID. However, the pure (probabilistic) real option rule characterizes the present value of expected cash flows and the expected costs by a single number, which is not realistic in many cases. To solve the problem, this paper considers the real option rule in a more realistic setting, namely, when the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.61-76
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• 1996

In this study it was assumed that planning was composed of three activities -resource assessment standard setting information seeking and implementing was composed of money investment and time investment, Two variable groups which were assumed to be related with planning and implementing were household characteristics and housewife's value characteristics. Money investment to children's education was significantly affected by income, net wealth of household instrumental value of eduation and information seeking about private education. The variables assumed to affect time investment to children's education were instrumental value of education information seeking about private education and expected education level.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.695-699
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• 2009

As a rule, when develop new product in company, multiple products that have similar function are developed simultaneously. These products are subjected to a group of tests covering quality, safety and durability. If the schedule of tests is changed, the expected net presented value(NPV) of new products is changed. The tests should be scheduled with the goal of maximizing the expected NPV of the new products. A model incorporated resource constraints with the sequencing of testing tasks of multiple products is proposed in this paper. Examples show that the proposed model can handle stochastic task duration data represented by scenarios with probabilities.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.109-123
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• 2008

This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.169-176
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• 2013

The price and revenue of rice are expected to decrease due to increasing rice imports, decreasing consumption and the discontinuance of the government's rice procurement. This degenerating profitability is leading to a rise in the cultivation of upland-crops such as beans, fodder crops and fruits in paddy fields. However, there is a lack of research on the selection of rice substitute crops which are adaptable to the relevant region through profitability analysis. This research, therefore, analyzed investment profitability of rice substitute crops for Cheorwon-gun area in Kangwon province. The study applied net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), which fit for mutually exclusive investments that make one selection to the exclusion of other crops. Target crops are green house plants in Cheorwon-gun area. Financial analysis showed paprika and cucumber have investment feasibility for automated vinyl greenhouses and conventional plastic greenhouses respectively.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.10 no.2 s.39
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• pp.137-145
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• 2007

In traditional financial theory, the discount cash flow model(DCF or NPV) operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value(NPV) of a project is the measure of the present value of expected net cash flows. Thus, investing in a positive(negative) NPV project will increase(decrease) firm value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options of the managerial flexibilities. Real option valuation(ROV) considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding the implementation of investment projects and the deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real assets based on the Black-Sholes option pricing model, the binomial option pricing model, and the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses those models to obtain point estimates of real option value with the G7- HSR350X(high-speed train).

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.1758-1761
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• 1997

The problem of long range capacity expansion planing for chemical processing network under uncertain demand forecast secnarios is addressed. This optimization problem involves capactiy expansion timing and sizing of each chemical processing unit to maximize the expected net present value considering the deviation of net present values and the excess capacity over a given time horizon. A multiperiod mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model that is both solution and modle robust for any realization of demand scenarios is developed using the two-stage stochastic programming algorithm. Two example problems are considered to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.2_1
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• pp.167-178
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• 2020

KOMPSAT-3A images have been used in various kinds of applications, since its launch in 2015. However, there were limits to scientific analysis and application extensions of these data, such as vegetation index estimation, because no tool was developed to obtain the surface reflectance required for analysis of the actual land environment. The surface reflectance is a product of performing an absolute atmospheric correction or calibration. The objective of this study is to quantitatively verify the accuracy of top-of-atmosphere reflectance and surface reflectance of KOMPSAT-3A images produced from the OTB open-source extension program, performing the cross-validation with those provided by a site measurement data of RadCalNet, an international Calibration/Validation (Cal/Val) portal. Besides, surface reflectance was obtained from Landsat-8 OLI images in the same site and applied together to the cross-validation process. According to the experiment, it is proven that the top-of-atmosphere reflectance of KOMPSAT-3A images differs by up to ± 0.02 in the range of 0.00 to 1.00 compared to the mean value of the RadCalNet data corresponding to the same spectral band. Surface reflectance in KOMPSAT-3A images also showed a high degree of consistency with RadCalNet data representing the difference of 0.02 to 0.04. These results are expected to be applicable to generate the value-added products of KOMPSAT-3A images as analysisready data (ARD). The tools applied in thisstudy and the research scheme can be extended as the new implementation of each sensor model to new types of multispectral images of compact advanced satellites (CAS) for land, agriculture, and forestry and the verification method, respectively.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.