• 제목/요약/키워드: exceedance probability

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도시유역의 빈도 관계곡선 유도 (Derivation of Frequency Relationship Curve in Urban Watershed)

  • 서주석;박만교;우승식;이태우;정찬욱;이종석
    • 한국콘텐츠학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘텐츠학회 2008년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.285-288
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 도시유역에서 강수계측망 밀도에 따른 빈도해석으로부터 관계곡선을 유도하여 최적 설계홍수량을 추적하고자 한다. 이를 위한 해석에는 도시전체를 한 개의 유역으로 하는 저밀도망과 13개 소구역으로 분할한 고밀도망에서 실측된 각기 다른 강우사상이 적용되었다. 저밀도망에는 39년간의 기상청 자료를 사용하였고, 고밀도망에는 6년간의 지자체 자료를 연초과치 계열로 확대하여 구성하였다. 그 결과 저밀도망은 지속기간 1시간에서 79.1mm, 24시간에서 329.1mm, 고밀도망은 93.0mm, 245.0mm가 각각 최대값으로 나타났으며, 빈도 관계곡선을 유도하기 위한 주요 6개 확률 분포형의 해석에서는 Gumbel 분포가 가장 적합한 것으로 나타났다.

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단자유도계 구조물의 로그정규분포 지진응답 특성 (A Property of Seismic Response with Log-normal Distribution at SDOF Structure)

  • 정연인;김군찬;최민호
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제10권11호
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    • pp.303-308
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구에서는 지진하중에 대한 구조물의 동적해석 과정에서 실제적이고 신뢰성 있는 확률 통계적 지진응답 결과를 얻기 위해 로그정규분포 기반 지진응답 도출 방안을 제안하였다. 이를 위해 미국지질조사국(USGS)에서 제시한 로스앤젤레스 지역 지진재해도에 따라 50년 동안의 발생 초과확률이 2%, 5%, 10%인 30개 지진데이터들을 활용하였다. 해석 대상으로서는 기본적인 동적거동 파악을 위해 단자유도계를 선정, 이의 고유진동주기 별 응답을 나타내는 응답 스팩트럼을 도식하여 응답 추이를 분석하였다. 최종적으로 도출된 로그정규분포 기반 응답의 경우 기존의 정규분포 기반 응답에 비해 모든 고유주기 영역에서 상대적으로 낮은 응답을 보였다. 제안된 로그정규분포 기반의 지진응답 평가는 성능기반내진설계를 위한 경제적 평가 방식으로서의 대안이 될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Investigation of Live Load Deflection Limit for Steel Cable Stayed and Suspension Bridges

  • Park, Ki-Jung;Kim, Do-Young;Hwang, Eui-Seung
    • 국제강구조저널
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.1252-1264
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    • 2018
  • Long span bridges such as steel cable stayed and suspension bridges are usually more flexible than short to medium span bridges and expected to have large deformations. Deflections due to live load for long span bridges are important since it controls the overall heights of the bridge for securing the clearance under the bridge and serviceability for securing the comfort of passengers or pedestrians. In case of sea-crossing bridges, the clearance of bridges is determined considering the height of the ship master from the surface of the water, the trim of the ship, the psychological free space, the tide height, and live load deflection. In the design of bridges, live load deflection is limited to a certain value to minimize the vibrations. However, there are not much studies that consider the live load deflection and its effects for long span bridges. The purpose of this study is to investigate the suitability of live load deflection limit and its actual effects on serviceability of bridges for steel cable-stayed and suspension bridges. Analytical study is performed to calculate the natural frequencies and deflections by design live load. Results are compared with various design limits and related studies by Barker et al. (2011) and Saadeghvaziri et al. (2012). Two long span bridges are selected for the case study, Yi Sun-Sin grand bridge (suspension bridge, main span length = 1545 m) and Young-Hung grand bridge (cable stayed bridge, main span length = 240 m). Long-term measured deflection data by GNSS system are collected from Yi Sun-Sin grand bridge and compared with the theoretical values. Probability of exceedance against various deflection limits are calculated from probability distribution of 10-min maximum deflection. The results of the study on the limitation of live load deflection are expected to be useful reference for the design, the proper planning and deflection review of the long span bridges around the world.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of confined masonry wall buildings

  • Ranjbaran, Fariman;Hosseini, Mahmood
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.201-216
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    • 2014
  • In this paper the vulnerability of the confined masonry buildings is evaluated analytically. The proposed approach includes the nonlinear dynamic analysis of the two-story confined masonry buildings with common plan as a reference structure. In this approach the damage level is calculated based on the probability of exceedance of loss vs a specified ground motion in the form of fragility curves. The fragility curves of confined masonry wall buildings are presented in two levels of limit states corresponding to elastic and maximum strength versus PGA based on analytical method. In this regard the randomness of parameters indicating the characteristics of the building structure as well as ground motion is considered as likely uncertainties. In order to develop the analytical fragility curves the proposed analytical models of confined masonry walls in a previous investigation of the authors, are used to specify the damage indices and responses of the structure. In order to obtain damage indices a series of pushover analyses are performed, and to identify the seismic demand a series of nonlinear dynamic analysis are conducted. Finally by considering various mechanical and geometric parameters of masonry walls and numerous accelerograms, the fragility curves with assuming a log normal distribution of data are derived based on capacity and demand of building structures in a probabilistic approach.

한국 동해안의 변화특성 (A Study on Characteristics of Coastline Change in Eastern Coast Korea)

  • 이종태
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 1979
  • This paper concerns the receding of the eastern coastline of Korean peninsula at a macroscopic point of view, the result is as following. 1. Eastern coast is gradually developed from maturity stage to full maturity stage. 2. The coastline recession due to sea level rise is amounted to the receding distance, x=0.045 m per yr. 3. The author proposes another classification from the new view point, which is classified by comparing quantities between river supplying sediment loads, and the littoral drifting due to wave actions. According this, eastern coast is receding(Type Q-A), and we could find it's geomorphological characteristics. 4. The general piofile of eastern coast sand beach is erosional storm profile(Type I) which accompany offshore bar. 5. From the wave measuring data of eastern coast(Hoopo port), I can derive the linear regression line of the exceedance probability of wave height from the log-normal distribution. $z=O. 113+4.335 log_lo H, r=0.983.$ Above equation made it possible to estimate $\omega[=P(H>H_c)]for the effective wave height H_c=2. Om4, 4. Om and their corresponding values are considerable (7.8%, 0.3%) 6. Eastern coastline certainly have the tendency of erosive and receding, owing to the sea level rise, poor sediment source and effective wave actions. It's very desirable to survey coastline evolution for a long time systematically, in order to make more elaborate diagnosis.

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The effects of uncertainties in structural analysis

  • Pellissetti, M.F.;SchueIler, G.I.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.311-330
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    • 2007
  • Model-based predictions of structural behavior are negatively affected by uncertainties of various type and in various stages of the structural analysis. The present paper focusses on dynamic analysis and addresses the effects of uncertainties concerning material and geometric parameters, mainly in the context of modal analysis of large-scale structures. Given the large number of uncertain parameters arising in this case, highly scalable simulation-based methods are adopted, which can deal with possibly thousands of uncertain parameters. In order to solve the reliability problem, i.e., the estimation of very small exceedance probabilities, an advanced simulation method called Line Sampling is used. In combination with an efficient algorithm for the estimation of the most important uncertain parameters, the method provides good estimates of the failure probability and enables one to quantify the error in the estimate. Another aspect here considered is the uncertainty quantification for closely-spaced eigenfrequencies. The solution here adopted represents each eigenfrequency as a weighted superposition of the full set of eigenfrequencies. In a case study performed with the FE model of a satellite it is shown that the effects of uncertain parameters can be very different in magnitude, depending on the considered response quantity. In particular, the uncertainty in the quantities of interest (eigenfrequencies) turns out to be mainly caused by very few of the uncertain parameters, which results in sharp estimates of the failure probabilities at low computational cost.

Probabilistic seismic performance assessment of self-centering prestressed concrete frames with web friction devices

  • Song, Long L.;Guo, Tong
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2017
  • A novel post-tensioned self-centering (SC) concrete beam-column connection with web friction devices has been proposed for concrete moment-resisting frames. This paper presents a probabilistic performance evaluation procedure to evaluate the performance of the self-centering concrete frame with the proposed post-tensioned beam-column connections. Two performance limit states, i.e., immediate occupancy (IO) and repairable (RE) limit states, are defined based on peak and residual story drift ratios. Statistical analyses of seismic demands revealed that the dispersion of residual drifts is larger than that of peak drifts. Due to self-centering feature of post-tensioning connections, the SC frame was found to have high probabilities to be recentered under the design basis earthquake (DBE) and maximum considered earthquake (MCE) ground motions. Seismic risk analysis was performed to determine the annual (50-year) probability of exceedance for IO and RE performance limit states, and the results revealed that the design objectives of the SC frame would be met under the proposed performance-based design approach.

Effects of the isolation parameters on the seismic response of steel frames

  • Deringol, Ahmet H.;Bilgin, Huseyin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.319-334
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, an analytical study was carried out to propose an optimum base-isolated system for the design of steel structures equipped with lead rubber bearings (LRB). For this, 5 and 10-storey steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) were designed as Special Moment Frame (SMF). These two-dimensional and three-bay frames equipped with a set of isolation systems within a predefined range that minimizes the response of the base-isolated frames subjected to a series of earthquakes. In the design of LRB, two main parameters, namely, isolation period (T) and the ratio of strength to weight (Q/W) supported by isolators were considered as 2.25, 2.5, 2.75 and 3 s, 0.05, 0.10 and 0.15, respectively. The Force-deformation behavior of the isolators was modelled by the bi-linear behavior which could reflect the nonlinear characteristics of the lead-plug bearings. The base-isolated frames were modelled using a finite element program and those performances were evaluated in the light of the nonlinear time history analyses by six natural accelerograms compatible with seismic hazard levels of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The performance of the isolated frames was assessed in terms of roof displacement, relative displacement, interstorey drift, absolute acceleration, base shear and hysteretic curve.

초대형 부유식 구조물의 돌핀-펜더계류시스템에 관한 실험연구 (Experimental Study on a Dolphin-Fender Mooring System for Pontoon-Type Structure)

  • 김진하;조석규;홍사영;김영식
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제42권1호
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2005
  • in this paper a dolphin-fender moored pontoon-type floating structure in shallow water depth is studied focusing on mooring force. The pontoon-type floating structure is 500m long, 300m wide. The structure has partially non-uniform drafts of 2.0m and 3.0m. The employed mooring system is a guyed frame type dolphin-fender system. The 1/125 scale model fender system is made of rubber tube to have hi-linear load deflection characteristics. A series of model tests has been conducted focusing on motion and fender force responses in regular and irregular waves at KRISO's ocean engineering basin Non-linear numerical simulation of fender reaction force has been carried out and the results are compared with those of model tests. The simulated rigid body motion and mooring forces also have been compared with the test results.

하수관거시설의 침수대응 운영·관리 실태 연구 (II) (Survey on sewerage operation/management planning for flooding (II))

  • 류재나;차영주;오재일;현인환;김영란;장대환
    • 상하수도학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.271-276
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    • 2009
  • Under current design standard, sewers are designed to drain stormwater generated up to 10 year return period of storms. This implies sewer flooding could occur from rainfall exceeding a 10 year return period. 5, 10, 20 and 30 year return period of storm intensities were calculated for 22 locations (cities) of meterological stations over the nation and compared to the recorded rainfall intensities for the last 30 years. The comparison resulted in the numbers of year maximum rainfall intensities exceeded each return period. Using the questionnaire survey for "the incidences of flooding since 1980" of the previous paper (Survey on sewerage operation/management planning for flooding (I)), the actual rainfall records on the date of flooding events were analyzed to demonstrate the number of flooding events caused by the exceedance of sewer capacity. For the last 30 years, more than 6 years of year maximum rainfall intensity (20%) were larger than the 10 year return period of storm in 4 cities of the 22 used for the first analysis. The number of rainfall records that exceeded the 10 year return period was 50 of the 260 actual flooding events investigated from the survey.