• Title/Summary/Keyword: exceedance probability

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Construction of Long-term Load Duration Curve Using MOVE.2 Extension Method and Assessment of Impaired Waterbody by Flow Conditions (MOVE.2 확장기법 적용을 통한 장기 부하지속곡선 구축 및 유황조건별 수체손상평가)

  • Kim, Gyeonghoon;Kwon, Heongak;Im, Taehyo;Lee, Gyudong;Shin, Dongseok;Na, Seungmin
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate on the applicability of Load Duration Curve (LDC) method using Maintenance of Variance Extension types 2 method and sampling data for efficient total maximum daily loads at the Nakbon-A unit watershed in Korea. The LDC method allows for characterizing water quality data such as BOD, TOC, T-N and T-P in this study at different flow regimes(or quarters). BOD usually exceeded the standard value (exceedance probability 50%) at low flow zone. On the other hand, TOC, T-N, T-P usually exceeded the standard value at dry and low flow zone. Seasonally all water quality variables usually exceeded the standard value at Q1(Jan-Mar) and Q2(Apr-Jun) zones. Improvement of effluent control from wastewater treatment plants are effective to improve BOD and T-P.

Evaluation of Reservoir Drought Response Capability Considering Precipitation of Non-irrigation Period using RCP Scenario (RCP 시나리오에 따른 비관개기 누적강수량을 고려한 둑높이기 저수지의 미래 가뭄대응능력 평가)

  • Bang, JeHong;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong;Lee, Sung-Hack
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2017
  • Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to store water resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interaction between cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model, reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severe than past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirs showed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growing season in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for the upcoming drought.

Damage detection of a cable-stayed bridge based on the variation of stay cable forces eliminating environmental temperature effects

  • Chen, Chien-Chou;Wu, Wen-Hwa;Liu, Chun-Yan;Lai, Gwolong
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.859-880
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to establish an effective methodology for the detection of instant damages occurred in cable-stayed bridges with the measurements of cable vibration and structural temperatures. A transfer coefficient for the daily temperature variation and another for the long-term temperature variation are firstly determined to eliminate the environmental temperature effects from the cable force variation. Several thresholds corresponding to different levels of exceedance probability are then obtained to decide four upper criteria and four lower criteria for damage detection. With these criteria, the monitoring data for three stay cables of Ai-Lan Bridge are analyzed and compared to verify the proposed damage detection methodology. The simulated results to consider various damage scenarios unambiguously indicate that the damages with cable force changes larger than ${\pm}1%$ can be confidently detected. As for the required time to detect damage, it is found that the cases with ${\pm}2%$ of cable force change can be discovered in no more than 6 hours and those with ${\pm}1.5%$ of cable force change can be identified in at most 9 hours. This methodology is also investigated for more lightly monitored cases where only the air temperature measurement is available. Under such circumstances, the damages with cable force changes larger than ${\pm}1.5%$ can be detected within 12 hours. Even though not exhaustively reflecting the environmental temperature effects on the cable force variation, both the effective temperature and the air temperature can be considered as valid indices to eliminate these effects at high and low monitoring costs.

Analysis of Uniform Hazard Spectra for Metropolises in the Korean Peninsula (국내 주요 광역 도시에 대한 등재해도 스펙트럼 분석)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Me;Kim, Min Kyu;Sheen, Dong-Hoon;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2013
  • The uniform hazard spectra for seven major cities in Korea, Seoul, Daejeon, Daegu, Busan, Gwangju, Ulsan, and Inchon are suggested. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were performed using the attenuation equations derived from seismology research in Korea since 2000 and the seismotectonic models selected by expert assessment. For the estimation of the uniform hazard spectra, the seismic hazard curves for several frequencies and PGAs were calculated by using the spectral attenuation equations. The seismic hazards (annual exceedance probability) calculated for the 7 metropolises ranged from about $1.4305{\times}0^{-4}/yr$ to $1.7523{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ and averaged out at about $1.5902{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ with a log standard deviation of about 0.085 at 0.2 g. The uniform hazard spectra with recurrence intervals of 500, 1000, and 2500 years estimated by using the calculated mean seismic hazard on the frequencies presented peak values at 10.0 Hz, and the log standard deviations of the difference between metropolises ranged from about 0.013 to 0.209. In view of the insignificant difference between the estimated uniform hazard spectra obtained for the considered metropolises, the mean uniform hazard spectrum was estimated. This mean uniform hazard spectrum is expected to be used as input seismic response spectrum for rock sites in Korea.

Experimental Study on Interaction of Side-by-Side Moored Vessels (병렬계류 선박의 동유체력 상호간섭에 관한 실험연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Ha;Hong, Sa-Young;Cho, Seok-Gyo;Choi, Yoon-Rak;Song, Myong-Jae;Kim, Duk-Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.208-213
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    • 2003
  • Recently, Side-by-side mooring system of LNG FPSO and shuttle tanker is one of hot issues in offshore floating body dynamics, which requires accurate analysis of hydrodynamic interactions between side by side moored LNG FPSO and shuttle tanker than tandem moored vessels. This paper aims to investigate basic interaction characteristics of side-by-side moored multiple vessels both numerically and experimentally. A higher-order boundary element method combined with generalized nwde approach will be applied to analysis of motion and drift force of side by side moored multiple-body. Model tests were carried out for the same multiple floating bodies in regular and irregular waves. Motion responses and drift forces of vessels for two mooring situation(coupled & uncoupled) were compared with those of calculations. Discussions will be highlighted on applicability of numerical method to prediction of sophisticated multi-body interaction problem of which motion behavior is very important to analysis of mooring dynamics of deep sea floating bodies.

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Assessment of Riverine Vegetation based on Hydrological Regime (수문학적 조건을 고려한 하천환경 연구)

  • Kwak, Jaewon;Kim, Taehyung;Kim, Keuksoo;Park, Jungsool;Park, Yongwoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.518-518
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    • 2017
  • Since Korea lunched the 4 Major River Restoration Project, the hydrological regime which is one of the major determinants for riverine condition have actually changed. It also important to connect hydrological characteristics and vegetation. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of hydrological regime on riverine vegetations and its successions. Iunundated exceedance probability concept are suggested to estimate rehabilitated and succession on the Binae island in the Han River. The result shows that the P=0.08 or lower IEPs should have the disturbance for vegetations, or should be changed to a hydrophilic ones. Therefore, agency which is mainly responsible for river and flow may have to be changed and considered flow regulation standard to conserve riverine zone.

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Earthquake Damage Assessment of Buildings in Urban Area using Disaster Management Platform (재난관리플랫폼을 이용한 도심지 건물군의 지진피해평가)

  • Jang, Sung-Hyun;Kwon, Dong-Hee;Hwang, Chan-Gyu;Choi, Soo-Young;Chey, Min-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2019
  • Because of its physical characteristics, earthquake has a great impact on a wide area in a short time, so it needs a resilience based seismic countermeasures to restore the community function. For this reason, in this study, the seismic damages of urban buildings were assessed stochastically by virtual earthquakes using public data information and disaster management program(Ergo-EQ). A geographical map reflecting geological characteristics of the target area was created with the buildings and topographic data in Dalseo-gu, Daegu City. In addition, an integrated database including building characteristics was modified to be linked with the Ergo-EQ program. The seismic damages for the buildings were evaluated through the exceedance probability of four different damage levels. From the damage results, it can be identified not only the seismic damage of each building, but also the major factors affecting earthquake damage.

The development of the seismic fragility curves of existing bridges in Indonesia (Case study: DKI Jakarta)

  • Veby Citra Simanjuntak;Iswandi Imran;Muslinang Moestopo;Herlien D. Setio
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2023
  • Seismic regulations have been updated from time to time to accommodate an increase in seismic hazards. Comparison of seismic fragility of the existing bridges in Indonesia from different historical periods since the era before 1990 will be the basis for seismic assessment of the bridge stock in Indonesia, most of which are located in earthquake-prone areas, especially those built many years ago with outdated regulations. In this study, seismic fragility curves were developed using incremental non-linear time history analysis and more holistically according to the actual strength of concrete and steel material in Indonesia to determine the uncertainty factor of structural capacity, βc. From the research that has been carried out, based on the current seismic load in SNI 2833:2016/Seismic Map 2017 (7% probability of exceedance in 75 years), the performance level of the bridge in the era before SNI 2833:2016 was Operational-Life Safety whereas the performance level of the bridge designed with SNI 2833:2016 was Elastic - Operational. The potential for more severe damage occurs in greater earthquake intensity. Collapse condition occurs at As = FPGA x PGA value of bridge Era I = 0.93 g; Era II = 1.03 g; Era III = 1.22 g; Era IV = 1.54 g. Furthermore, the fragility analysis was also developed with geometric variations in the same bridge class to see the effect of these variations on the fragility, which is the basis for making bridge risk maps in Indonesia.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment of a typical Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant (NGCCPP) control building

  • A. Can Zulfikar;Seyhan Okuyan Akcan;Ali Yesilyurt;Murat Eroz;Tolga Cimili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.581-591
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    • 2023
  • North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

Development of Empirical Fragility Function for High-speed Railway System Using 2004 Niigata Earthquake Case History (2004 니가타 지진 사례 분석을 통한 고속철도 시스템의 지진 취약도 곡선 개발)

  • Yang, Seunghoon;Kwak, Dongyoup
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2019
  • The high-speed railway system is mainly composed of tunnel, bridge, and viaduct to meet the straightness needed for keeping the high speed up to 400 km/s. Seismic fragility for the high-speed railway infrastructure can be assessed as two ways: one way is studying each element of infrastructure analytically or numerically, but it requires lots of research efforts due to wide range of railway system. On the other hand, empirical method can be used to access the fragility of an entire system efficiently, which requires case history data. In this study, we collect the 2004 MW 6.6 Niigata earthquake case history data to develop empirical seismic fragility function for a railway system. Five types of intensity measures (IMs) and damage levels are assigned to all segments of target system for which the unit length is 200 m. From statistical analysis, probability of exceedance for a certain damage level (DL) is calculated as a function of IM. For those probability data points, log-normal CDF is fitted using MLE method, which forms fragility function for each damage level of exceedance. Evaluating fragility functions calculated, we observe that T=3.0 spectral acceleration (SAT3.0) is superior to other IMs, which has lower standard deviation of log-normal CDF and low error of the fit. This indicates that long-period ground motion has more impacts on railway infrastructure system such as tunnel and bridge. It is observed that when SAT3.0 = 0.1 g, P(DL>1) = 2%, and SAT3.0 = 0.2 g, P(DL>1) = 23.9%.