• Title/Summary/Keyword: exceedance

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Comparison of Methods for the Analysis Percentile of Seismic Hazards (지진재해도의 백분위수 분석 방법 비교)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Me;Seo, Jung-Moon;Kim, Min-Kyu;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2011
  • Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which can effectively apply inevitable uncertainties in seismic data, considers a number of seismotectonic models and attenuation equations. The calculated hazard by PSHA is generally a value dependent on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and expresses the value as an annual exceedance probability. To represent the uncertainty range of a hazard which has occurred using various seismic data, a hazard curve figure shows both a mean curve and percentile curves (15, 50, and 85). The percentile performs an important role in that it indicates the uncertainty range of the calculated hazard, could be calculated using various methods by the relation of the weight and hazard. This study using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, the maximum likelihood method, and the moment method, has calculated the percentile of the computed hazard by PSHA on the Shinuljin 1, 2 site. The calculated percentile using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, and the maximum likelihood method, have similar trends and represent the range of all computed hazards by PSHA. The calculated percentile using the moment method effectively showed the range of hazards at the source which includes a site. This study suggests the moment method as effective percentile calculation method considering the almost same mean hazard for the seismotectonic model and a source which includes a site.

Probabilistic Medium- and Long-Term Reservoir Inflow Forecasts (II) Use of GDAPS for Ensemble Reservoir Inflow Forecasts (확률론적 중장기 댐 유입량 예측 (II) 앙상블 댐 유입량 예측을 위한 GDAPS 활용)

  • Kim, Jin-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.3 s.164
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    • pp.275-288
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    • 2006
  • This study develops ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) system by using medium-term numerical weather prediction model which is GDAPS(T213) of KMA. The developed system forecasts medium- and long-range exceedance Probability for streamflow and RPSS evaluation scheme is used to analyze the accuracy of probability forecasts. It can be seen that the daily probability forecast results contain high uncertainties. A sensitivity analysis with respect to forecast time resolution shows that uncertainties decrease and accuracy generally improves as the forecast time step increase. Weekly ESP results by using the GDAPS output with a lead time of up to 28 days are more accurately predicted than traditional ESP results because conditional probabilities are stably distributed and uncertainties can be reduced. Therefore, it can be concluded that the developed system will be useful tool for medium- and long-term reservoir inflow forecasts in order to manage water resources.

Exposure and Risk Assessment of Benzene and PM10 for Sub-populations using Monte-Carlo Simulations (Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 부분 인구집단별 벤젠 및 PM10의 노출 및 위해성 평가)

  • Park, Jinhyeon;Yang, So Young;Park, Yunkyung;Ryu, Hyeonsu;Kim, Eunchae;Choe, Youngtae;Heo, Jung;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.247-257
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and $PM_{10}$ among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for $PM_{10}$ for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E-03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and $PM_{10}$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of $PM_{10}$ were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and $PM_{10}$.

Analysis of Water bady Damage at Osu Stream Using the Flow-Loading Equation and 8-Day Intervals Cumulative Flow Duration Curve (유량-부하량 관계식과 8일 간격 누적유량지속곡선을 이용한 오수천의 수체 손상도 분석)

  • Lee, Young Sung;Kim, Young Suk;Han, Sung Wook;Seo, kwon ok;Lim, chang bok;Lee, Yeong Jae;Kim, Kyunghyun;Jung, Kang-Young
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.27 no.12
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    • pp.1179-1193
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study at water quality pollutants to propose proper management method for the Osu-A unit watershed which is the influent tributary located upstream of the Sumjin -river among the 13 unit watersheds in the Sumjin-river water system. Analyzed the correlation between flow-pollution loading and the correlation between land use type, BOD and TP items, and analyzed 8-day intervals Cumulative Flow Duration Curve (CFDC) and Load Duration Curve (LDC) to evaluate water quality damage. As a result, both BOD and TP were larger than 1 and the concentration of water pollutants increased with increasing flow. BOD was positively correlated with Urban and Field, and TP was positively correlated with Field with 0.710. As a result of the LDC, BOD was analyzed that the target water quality was achieved with the excess rate of less than 50%, and TP exceeded the target water quality by 50.1%. BOD usually exceeded the standard value (exceedance probability 50%) at low flow zone and On the other hand, TP usually exceeded the standard value at high flow zone. Monthly BOD (April to June) and TP (May to August) exceeded the standard. Sewage Wastewater treatment and non-point pollution control is Osu-A unit watersheds are effective in improving BOD and TP.

Examination of Soil Contamination Status and Improvement Strategies within Urban Development Projects (도시개발사업 내 토양 오염 현황과 개선 방안 고찰)

  • Heo, Sujung;Lee, Dong-Kun;Kim, Eunsub;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Jin, Zhiying
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2024
  • Heavy metals emitted from urban development do not decompose in the soil and remain for long periods, continually impacting the environment. Since the mid-1990s, there has been increasing societal concern in South Korea regarding soil contamination, prompting various legislative revisions to reduce pollution. This study utilizes the Environmental Impact Assessment Support System (EIASS) to investigate projects in the metropolitan area that have exceeded the Ministry of Environment's soil contamination concern levels from 1989 to 2022 and to examine improvements in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. The results reveal that the average concentrations of nine contaminants-cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), arsenic (As), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), hexavalent chromium (Cr6+), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and fluoride (F)-have all increased over the years. Among these, Zn had the highest relative proportion, with 37.5% of the 40 sites exceeding environmental concern levels. Investigation of 19 specific projects at these exceedance sites showed that only 7 had documented analyses of contamination causes and remediation plans, and just one had contracted additional remediation services, though results from these efforts were found to be lacking. Furthermore, since 2019, a significant proportion of these sites were involved in residential developments, likely due to government initiatives in new city development and extensive housing supply plans. This research emphasizes the importance of public disclosure of the processes and outcomes of remediation efforts on historically contaminated soils prior to project development. It discusses improvements to the EIA by reviewing current legislation and international examples. The findings of this study are expected to heighten public awareness about heavy metal contamination and enhance transparency in soil remediation efforts, contributing to sustainable environmental management and development.

Lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and air pollution (대기오염에 의한 폐암 및 만성폐색성호흡기질환 -개인 흡연력을 보정한 만성건강영향평가-)

  • Sung, Joo-Hon;Cho, Soo-Hun;Kang, Dae-Hee;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3 s.58
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    • pp.585-598
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    • 1997
  • Background : Although there are growing concerns about the adverse health effect of air pollution, not much evidence on health effect of current air pollution level had been accumulated yet in Korea. This study was designed to evaluate the chronic health effect of ai. pollution using Korean Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC) data and air quality data. Medical insurance data in Korea have some drawback in accuracy, but they do have some strength especially in their national coverage, in having unified ID system and individual information which enables various data linkage and chronic health effect study. Method : This study utilized the data of Korean Environmental Surveillance System Study (Surveillance Study), which consist of asthma, acute bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), cardiovascular diseases (congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease), all cancers, accidents and congenital anomaly, i. e., mainly potential environmental diseases. We reconstructed a nested case-control study wit5h Surveillance Study data and air pollution data in Korea. Among 1,037,210 insured who completed? questionnaire and physical examination in 1992, disease free (for chronic respiratory disease and cancer) persons, between the age of 35-64 with smoking status information were selected to reconstruct cohort of 564,991 persons. The cohort was followed-up to 1995 (1992-5) and the subjects who had the diseases in Surveillance Study were selected. Finally, the patients, with address information and available air pollution data, left to be 'final subjects' Cases were defined to all lung cancer cases (424) and COPD admission cases (89), while control groups are determined to all other patients than two case groups among 'final subjects'. That is, cases are putative chronic environmental diseases, while controls are mainly acute environmental diseases. for exposure, Air quality data in 73 monitoring sites between 1991 - 1993 were analyzed to surrogate air pollution exposure level of located areas (58 areas). Five major air pollutants data, TSP, $O_3,\;SO_2$, CO, NOx was available and the area means were applied to the residents of the local area. 3-year arithmetic mean value, the counts of days violating both long-term and shot-term standards during the period were used as indices of exposure. Multiple logistic regression model was applied. All analyses were performed adjusting for current and past smoking history, age, gender. Results : Plain arithmetic means of pollutants level did not succeed in revealing any relation to the risk of lung cancer or COPD, while the cumulative counts of non-at-tainment days did. All pollutants indices failed to show significant positive findings with COPD excess. Lung cancer risks were significantly and consistently associated with the increase of $O_3$ and CO exceedance counts (to corrected error level -0.017) and less strongly and consistently with $SO_2$ and TSP. $SO_2$ and TSP showed weaker and less consistent relationship. $O_3$ and CO were estimated to increase the risks of lung cancer by 2.04 and 1.46 respectively, the maximal probable risks, derived from comparing more polluted area (95%) with cleaner area (5%). Conclusions : Although not decisive due to potential misclassication of exposure, these results wert drawn by relatively conservative interpretation, and could be used as an evidence of chronic health effect especially for lung cancer. $O_3$ might be a candidate for promoter of lung cancer, while CO should be considered as surrogated measure of motor vehicle emissions. The control selection in this study could have been less appropriate for COPD, and further evaluation with another setting might be necessary.

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Assessment of Contamination and Sources Identification of Heavy Metals in Stream Water and Sediments around Industrial Complex (산업단지 유역 하천수와 퇴적물 내 중금속 오염도 평가 및 기원 추적 연구)

  • Jeong, Hyeryeong;Lee, Jihyun;Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Kim, Eun-Soo;Ra, Kongtae
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.179-191
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    • 2019
  • Heavy metals in stream water and sediments around industrial complex were studied in order to assess the contamination and to identify the potential source of metals. High variability has been observed for both dissolved and particulate phases in stream water with coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 1.3 to 2.8. The highest metal concentrations in both phases were observed in Gunja for Ni and Cu, in Jungwang for Zn and Pb and in Shiheung for Cd, respectively. These results indicate that the different metal sources could be existing. The concentrations of the heavy metals in sediments decreased in the order of Cu>Zn>Pb>Cr>Ni>As>Cd>Hg, with mean of 2,549, 1,742, 808, 539, 163, 17.1, 5.8, $0.07mg\;kg^{-1}$, respectively. Mean of metal concentrations(except for As) in sediments showed the highest values at Shiheung stream comparing with other streams. In sediments, the percent exceedance of class II grade that metal may potentially harmful impact on benthic organism for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb was about 57%, 62%, 84%, 60%, 68%, 81% for all stream sediments, respectively. Sediments were classified as heavily to extremely polluted for Cu and Cd, heavily polluted for Zn and Pb, based on the calculation of Igeo value. About 59% and 35% of sediments were in the categories of "poor" and "very poor" pollution status for heavy metals. Given the high metal concentrations, industrial wastes and effluents, having high concentrations of most metals originated from the manufacture and use of metal products in this region, might be discharged into the stream through sewer outlet. The streams receive significant amounts of industrial waste from the industrial facilities which is characterized by light industrial complexes of approximately 17,000 facilities. Thus, the transport of metal loads through streams is an important pathway for metal pollution in Shihwa Lake.

Very short-term rainfall prediction based on radar image learning using deep neural network (심층신경망을 이용한 레이더 영상 학습 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Park, Heeseong;Shin, Hongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1159-1172
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    • 2020
  • This study applied deep convolution neural network based on U-Net and SegNet using long period weather radar data to very short-term rainfall prediction. And the results were compared and evaluated with the translation model. For training and validation of deep neural network, Mt. Gwanak and Mt. Gwangdeoksan radar data were collected from 2010 to 2016 and converted to a gray-scale image file in an HDF5 format with a 1km spatial resolution. The deep neural network model was trained to predict precipitation after 10 minutes by using the four consecutive radar image data, and the recursive method of repeating forecasts was applied to carry out lead time 60 minutes with the pretrained deep neural network model. To evaluate the performance of deep neural network prediction model, 24 rain cases in 2017 were forecast for rainfall up to 60 minutes in advance. As a result of evaluating the predicted performance by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at the threshold of 0.1, 1, and 5 mm/hr, the deep neural network model showed better performance in the case of rainfall threshold of 0.1, 1 mm/hr in terms of MAE, and showed better performance than the translation model for lead time 50 minutes in terms of CSI. In particular, although the deep neural network prediction model performed generally better than the translation model for weak rainfall of 5 mm/hr or less, the deep neural network prediction model had limitations in predicting distinct precipitation characteristics of high intensity as a result of the evaluation of threshold of 5 mm/hr. The longer lead time, the spatial smoothness increase with lead time thereby reducing the accuracy of rainfall prediction The translation model turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (> 5 mm/hr) because it preserves distinct precipitation characteristics, but the rainfall position tends to shift incorrectly. This study are expected to be helpful for the improvement of radar rainfall prediction model using deep neural networks in the future. In addition, the massive weather radar data established in this study will be provided through open repositories for future use in subsequent studies.