• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2002년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.284-293
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• 2002

Using the life cycle cost concept, optimum maintenance and retrofit planning for reliable seismic performance is suggested the overall life cycle cost to be minimized including the initial cost, the costs of inspection, repair, and failure. Limit states of the bridges are defined. And failure probabilities are computed through crossing theory. The effect of maintenance and retrofit is represented using the probability of damage detection and event tree analysis. Optimization of maintenance and retrofit planning method proposed from this research was applied to numerical examples. The analysis incorporates the acceleration and site conditions prescribed in the code, and the quality of inspection methods.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2015년도 제46회 하계학술대회
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• pp.553-554
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• 2015

This paper presents the selection method of Minimal Cut Sets(MCS) for substation reliability evaluation. We used the Quality solution in order to model the FT for the substation equipment. Quantitative analysis is performed to estimate the probability of top event occurrence and unreliability of the substation component. In this result, it means that reliability indices which can be predict get electricity services and better maintenance in substation management.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.11-22
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• 1983

가압 경수로의 노 냉각수 제어계통의 신뢰도를 해석하였다. 이 신뢰도 해석에서 붕소주입실패를 상위사고로 설정하였다. 신뢰도 해석은 고장계통도를 작성한 후 이 고장 계통도로부터 최소절군을 구하였다. 붕소주입실패에 의한 노 냉각수 제어계통의 불가용성은 1.497$\times$$10^{-5}$으로 계산되었다. 노 냉각수 제어계통의 불가용성에 가장 중요한 영향을 미치는 것은 붕산전달펄프의 신뢰도이며, 인간의 실수 역시 계통 신뢰도에 중요한 인자임이 나타났다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.87-95
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• 2011

The urgent VAI(Vital Area Identification) method development is required since 'The Act of Physical Protection and Radiological Emergency' that is established in 2003 requires an evaluation of physical threats in nuclear facilities and an establishment of physical protection in Korea. The KAERI(Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has developed the VAI methodology and VAI software called as VIPEX(Vital area Identification Package EXpert) for identifying the vital areas. This study is to demonstrate the applicability of KAERI's VAI methodology to a hypothetical facility, and to identify the importance of information of cable and piping runs when identifying the vital areas. It is necessarily needed to consider cable and piping runs to determine the accurate and realistic TEPS(Top Event Prevention Set). If the information of cable and piping runs of a nuclear power plant is not considered when determining the TEPSs, it is absolutely impossible to acquire the complete TEPSs, and the results could be distorted by missing it. The VIPEX and FTREX(Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) properly calculate MCSs and TEPSs using the fault tree model, and provide the most cost-effective method to save the VAI and physical protection costs.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제30권6호
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• pp.531-540
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• 1998

The DYLAM-3 code which overcomes the limitation of event tree/fault tree was applied to LOOP (Loss of Off-site Power) in the mid-loop operation employing HEPs (Human Error Probabilities) supplied by the ASEP (Accident Sequence Evaluation Program) and the SEPLOT (Systematic Evaluation Procedure for Low power/shutdown Operation Task) procedure in this study. Thus the time history of core uncovery frequency during the mid-loop operation was obtained. The sensitivity calculations in the operator's actions to prevent core uncovery under LOOP in the mid-loop operation were carried out. The analysis using the time dependent HEP was performed on the primary feed & bleed which has the most significant effect on core uncovery frequency. As the result, the increment of frequency is shown after 200 minutes duration of simulation conditions. This signifies the possibility of increment in risk after 200 minutes. The primary feed & bleed showed the greatest impact on core uncovery frequency and the recovery of the SCS (Shutdown Cooling System) showed the least impact. Therefore the efforts should be taken on the primary feed & bleed to reduce the core uncovery frequency in the mid-loop operation. And the capability of DYLAM-3 in applying to the time dependent concerns could be demonstrated.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.134-134
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• 2022

Streamflow forecasting plays a crucial role in water resource control, especially in highly urbanized areas that are very vulnerable to flooding during heavy rainfall event. In addition to providing the accurate prediction, the evaluation of effects and importance of the input predictors can contribute to water manager. Recently, machine learning techniques have applied their advantages for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. However, the techniques have not considered properly the importance and uncertainty of the predictor variables. To address these concerns, we applied the GA-BART, that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) with the Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model for hourly streamflow forecasting and analyzing input predictors. The Jungrang urban basin was selected as a case study and a database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 from the rain gauges and monitoring stations. For the goal of this study, we used a combination of inputs that included the areal rainfall of the subbasins at current time step and previous time steps and water level and streamflow of the stations at time step for multistep-ahead streamflow predictions. An analysis of multiple datasets including different input predictors was performed to define the optimal set for streamflow forecasting. In addition, the GA-BART model could reasonably determine the relative importance of the input variables. The assessment might help water resource managers improve the accuracy of forecasts and early flood warnings in the basin.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제52권6호
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• pp.750-754
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• 2014

초고농도 과산화수소 제조를 위한 투과증발 공정의 정량적 위험성 분석을 수행하였다. 잠재적 주요 사고는 분해반응에 따른 폭발 및 화재이며 실험실 규모일 때 사고결과는 카테고리 3에 속하는 것으로 판단된다. 대상공정에서 분해반응이 일어나는 과정을 사건트리 형태로 모델링하고 사고원인들의 확률함수를 유사사건 발생빈도 자료를 근거로 설정하였다. 구축된 모델을 사용하여 사고율을 계산한 결과, 수용 가능한 위험수준, 즉 사고빈도가 $10^{-4}/yr$ 이하가 되려면 추가 안전장치가 필요한 것으로 파악되었다. 이를 위해 방호계층분석을 적용한 결과, 촉매반응을 막기 위한 본질적 안전설계, 과열을 막기 위한 SIF (safety instrumented function), 그리고 분해반응이 일어나더라도 폭발로 이어지지는 것을 막는 릴리프 시스템이 요구되었다. 제안된 방법은 과산화수소 농축을 포함한 다양한 화학공정의 안전관리시스템 개발에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.57-61
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• 2005

이 연구는 결함수분석(FTA)를 이용해 완전방호 형식 및 멤브레인 형식의 KOGAS 탱크 설계에 대한 비교 정량적 위험성평가를 위해 수행하였다. 이 연구를 위해 표준 완전방호식 탱크와 초기 멤브레인 탱크 및 4가지의 개선된 멤브레인 탱크를 포함한 총 6개 모델에 대해 위험성을 평가하였다. 이 연구에서는 FTA를 이용해 누출빈도를 정량화 하였다. 분석의 명확성 및 일관성을 위해서 모든 경우는 동일한 고장수(fault tree)를 이용해 정량화하였다. 개선되지 않은 멤브레인 저장탱크(초기 모델)를 제외하고 예측된 위험도 수준은 매우 유사해서 각각의 탱크는 동일한 위험도 수준(the same level of risk)을 나타내는 것으로 평가되었다. 펌프 낙하에 의한 손상은 완전방호식 탱크에 비해서 박판으로 되어있는 멤브레인 탱크가 두드러지게 큰 것으로 예측되었다.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.88-96
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• 2013

Purpose: This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results: The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion: This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.14-29
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• 1992

원자력 발전소에서 발생하는 공통원인 고장을 분석하기 위한 컴퓨터 코드 COMCAF를 개발하였다. 공통원인 고장을 다룰 때, 먼저 계통의 최소 단절집합들을 공통원인 기본사상들이 고려되지 않은 고장수목으로부터 구한다. 그리고, 공통원인 고장들이 같은 최소 단절집합내의 부품들간에 있는지 또는 서로 다른 최소 단절집합들의 부품들간에 있는지를 고려하여 이들 최소 단절집합들의 발생 확률값을 계산한다. 유사하거나 동일한 부품들간에 공통원인 고장이 있을때는 Basic Para-meter 모델을 사용한다. 그러나, 서로 다른 부품들간에 공통원인 고장이 있을때는 Basic Para-meter모델에 쓰인 Symmetry Assumption을 두개 이상의 부품에 영향을 주는 기본사상들에만 적용한다. Inclusion-Exclusion방법을 사용하여 정점사상확률간을 구한다. 이 경우 같은 최소 단절 집합들에 있는 부품들의 공통원인 고장뿐만아니라 서로 다른 최소 단절집합들에 있는 부품들의 공통원인 고장도 쉽게 고려될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 공통원인 고장분석을 가압경수로의 보조 급수계통에 적용하였다. 이들 정점사상의 확률값들을 공통원인 고장이 없는 경우와 비교하였다.