• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제40권6호
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• pp.391-400
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• 2016

최근 우리나라 연근해에서 발생한 몇 건의 대형 해양사고에서, 신속하고 체계적인 초기대응이 사고 전개양상과 사고결과에 얼마나 큰 영향을 미치는지를 확인하였다. 또한, 이를 통해 다양한 해양사고 상황에 대한 정확한 정보와 전개될 수 있는 시나리오, 적용 가능한 사고대응 방법들에 대한 정보를 신속하게 확보하는 것이 해양사고 초기대응을 위하여 무엇보다 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 현실적인 문제를 해결하기 위한 일환으로, 본 연구에서는, '위험도기반 초기대응 지원 시스템'의 개념을 제시하고, 해양사고 이후 전개 가능한 모든 시나리오와 적용 가능한 사고대응 방법들을 식별하기 위하여 사건전개 시나리오 식별 브레인스토밍 기법을 제안하였으며, 식별된 사고대응 방법들의 적용으로 인한 피해저감 효과 등을 정량화하기 위하여 사건수목분석 (Event Tree Analysis: ETA) 기법을 활용한 사건전개수목을 제안하였다. 그리고 각각의 사고대응 방법에 대한 상세분석을 위해서는 PERT/CPM의 사용을 제안하였다. 또한, 상기 제시한 위험도기반 초기대응 지원시스템의 구성 체계를 설명하기 위하여, 유조선 좌초사고에 대한 사고대응 작업을 예로 간략한 위험도분석 작업을 수행하였다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.155-163
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• 2008

This paper presents a novel framework for analysis of power system wide-area blackout based on so called fault cascading scenarios. For a given power system operating state, "triggering" faults or a "seed faults" are chosen based on the probabilities estimated from the hazard rates. The fault probabilities reflect both the load and the weather conditions. Effects of hidden failures in protection systems are also reflected in establishing the fault propagation scenarios since they are one of the major causes for the wide-area blackouts. A tree type data structure called a PS-BEST(Power System Blackout Event Scenario Tree) is proposed for construction of the fault cascading scenarios, in which nodes represent various power system operating states and the arcs are the events causing transitions between the states. Arcs can be either probabilistic or deterministic. For a given initial fault, the total probability of leading to wide-area blackout is estimated by aggregating the individual probability of each fault sequence route leading to wide-area blackout. A case study is performed on the IEEE RTS-79(24 bus) system based on the fault data presented by the North American Electrical Reliability Council(NERC). Test results demonstrate the potentials and the effectiveness of the proposed technique for the future wide-area blackout analysis.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.194-201
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• 2012

Because the difference between products and services are getting less and less, service and manufacturing companies' efforts are increasingly focused on utilizing services to satisfy customers' needs under today's competitive market environment. The value of services depends on service reliability that is identified by satisfaction derived from the relationship between customer needs and service providers. In this paper, we extend concepts from the fault tree analysis for reliability analysis of tangible systems to services. We use an event-based process model to facilitate service design and represent the relationships between functions and failures in a service. The objective of this research is to propose a method for evaluating service reliability based on service processes using service blueprint and FTA. We can identify the failure mode of service in a service delivery process with a service blueprint. The fuzzy membership function is used to characterize the probability of failure based on linguistic terms. FTA is employed to estimate the reliability of service delivery processes with risk factors that are represented as potential failure causes. To demonstrate implementation of the proposed method, we use a case study involving a typical automotive service operation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권12호
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• pp.4560-4570
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• 2022

Dynamic fault tree (DFT) and its related research methods have received extensive attention in safety analysis and reliability engineering. DFT can perform reliability modelling for systems with sequential correlation, resource sharing, and cold and hot spare parts. A technical modelling method of DFT is proposed for modelling ship collision accidents and loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). Qualitative and quantitative analyses of DFT were carried out using the cutting sequence (CS)/extended cutting sequence (ECS) method. The results show nine types of dynamic fault failure modes in ship collision accidents, describing the fault propagation process of a dynamic system and reflect the dynamic changes of the entire accident system. The probability of a ship collision accident is 2.378 × 10^-9 by using CS. This failure mode cannot be expressed by a combination of basic events within the same event frame after an LOCA occurs in a marine nuclear reactor because the system contains warm spare parts. Therefore, the probability of losing reactor control was calculated as 8.125 × 10^-6 using the ECS. Compared with CS, ECS is more efficient considering expression and processing capabilities, and has a significant advantage considering cost.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제52권6호
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• pp.695-711
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• 2024

Suspension bridges are critical to urban transportation, but those in earthquake-prone areas face unique challenges. In the event of a moderate or strong earthquake, conventional linear theory-based approaches for detecting bridge damage become inadequate. This study presents an efficient method for identifying damage in suspension bridges using time history nonlinear inelastic analysis. A practical advanced analysis program is employed to model cable-supported bridges with low computational cost, generating a dataset for four hybrid models: PSO-DT, PSO-RF, PSO-XGB, and PSO-CGB. These models combine decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and categorical gradient boosting (CGB) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to capture nonlinear correlations between displacement response and damage. Principal component analysis reduces dataset dimensions, and PSO selects the optimal model. A numerical case study of a suspension bridge under simulated earthquake conditions identifies PSO-XGB as the best model for predicting stiffness reduction. The results demonstrate the method's robustness for nonlinear damage detection in suspension bridges under earthquake excitation.

• 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.129-137
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 Decision Tree model을 기반으로 개발된 산사태 예측프로그램 SHAPP ver 1.0을 이용하여 전라남도 무안군 ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$지역의 호남선 철도 주변에 대한 산사태 발생예측을 실시하였다. 이를 위하여 먼저 대상지역의 총 8개소에서 토층시료를 채취하고, 이에 대한 토질시험을 실시하였다. 대상지역에 대한 토질시험결과를 토대로 투수계수와 간극비에 대한 주제도를 작성하고 수치지형도를 이용하여 지형의 경사분석을 실시하였다. 이를 이용하여 산사태 발생예측을 실시한 결과 총 15,552개의 해석셀 가운데 435개의 셀에서 산사태가 발생될 것으로 예측되었다. 이때 해석셀의 크기는 $10m{\times}10m$이므로 산사태 발생예상 면적은 $43,500m^2$으로 나타났다.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2015년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.256-257
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• 2015

시장의 세계화와 정보통신의 발전에 의해, 운송망의 길이가 길어지고, 복잡화되었다. 이 때문에 운송신뢰성에 대한 연구의 필요성이 높아졌다. 본 연구에서는 트럭운송 시에 발생할 수 있는 예상치 못한 위험 사건의 결함나무분석(FTA)를 통해 정의하며, 각 위험사건간의 관계를 표현하여 실패율을 사례를 이용하여 구한다. 이를 통해 중간 위험사건 4가지에 대한 페트리네트를 통해, 인과관계를 고려한 순서와 시간에 따른 위험사건의 발생을 고려한 신뢰성을 신뢰도 함수를 이용하여 도출한다. 물류 운송시스템에 대한 신뢰성을 공학적인 방법론을 사용하여 수리적으로 도출한다는 점에서 연구의 의의가 있다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.45-53
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• 2011

The research proposes seven elimination rules of redundant gates and blocks in Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Reliability Block Diagram (RBD). The computational complexity of cut sets and path sets is NP-hard. In order to reduce the complexity of Minimal Cut Set (MCS) and Minimal Path Set (MPS), the paper classifies generation algorithms. Moreover, the study develops six implementation steps which reflect structural importance (SI) and reliability importance (RI) from Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) that a priority of using the functional logic among components is to reduce (improve) the system unavailability (or availability). The proposed steps include efficient generation of state structure function by Rare Event Enumeration (REA). Effective use of importance measures, such as SI and ill measures, is presented based on the number and the size of MCS and MPS which is generated from the reference[5] of this paper. In addition, numerical examples are presented for practitioners to obtain the comprehensive understanding of six steps that is proposed in this research.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제26권2_2호
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• pp.315-325
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• 2023

Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.1208-1217
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• 2019

풀-브리지 서브모듈은 MMC의 단위 시스템으로서 서브모듈에 대한 수명예측은 HVDC 시스템의 유지 보수와 경제성 확보 관점에서 매우 중요하다. 그러나 일반적으로 부품의 종류, 개수, 결합 상태만을 고려하는 수명 예측은 대상 시스템의 구동상태를 고려하지 않는 일반화 된 결과로 실제 시스템의 수명과 크게 차이가 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 풀-브리지 서브모듈의 동작 특성을 반영하기 위한 목적으로 고장나무를 설계하고 기본 사상의 고장률에 MIL-HDBK-217F를 적용하여 풀-브리지 서브모듈의 수명을 예측한다. 기존의 부품고장률 분석과 제안된 고장나무 분석에 의한 기대 수명을 비교하고, 풀-브리지 서브모듈의 여유율 적용 여부에 따른 수명을 비교한다.