• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.29-36
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• 2002

교량의 내진성능확보를 위한 유지보수계획을 수립하는데 있어서, 전체 생애주기비용의 최소화를 통하여 최적의 검사 및 수리회수의 결정방법을 제시한다. 생애주기 비용에는 초기비용, 파괴비용 뿐만 아니라, 검사 및 보수비용이 포함된다. 시간에 따른 내진성능저하모델을 손상함수를 이용하여 표현하였으며, 손상감지정도에 따른 Event Tree Analysis를 통하여 유지보수에 따른 파괴확률을 랜덤진동이론을 이용하여 산출한다. 예제로서 10경간 연속교의 최적유지보수방법을 살펴본 결과, 가속도계수가 증가하고, 연약지반일수록 최적유지보수회수는 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.81-94
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• 2003

The British railway safety research group has developed a risk assessment model for the railway infrastructure and major railway accidents. The major hazardous factors of the railway infrastructure were identified and classified in the model. The frequency rates of critical top events were predicted by the fault tree analysis method using failure data of the railway system components and ratings of railway maintenance experts, The consequences of critical top events were predicted by the event tree analysis method. They classified the Joss of accident due to railway system into personal. commercial and environmental damages. They also classified 110 hazardous event due to railway system into three categories. train accident. movement accident and non-movement accident. The risk assessment model of the British railway system has been designed to take full account of both the high frequency low consequence type events (events occurring routinely for which there is significant quantity of recorded data) and the low frequency high consequence events (events occurring rarely for which there is little recorded data). The results for each hazardous event were presented in terms of the frequency of occurrence (number of events/year) and the risk (number of equivalent fatalities per year).

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.190-198
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 승객, 공중 및 직원의 철도 사상사고를 대상으로 위험도 평가모델을 개발하였다. 이를 위해 철도 사상사고의 위험요인을 분석하여 관련 위험사건을 정의하였고, 위험사건의 발생을 초래하는 위험요인들의 논리적 연계성을 사건발생 시나리오로 구성하여 사건발생빈도 평가모델을 고장수목(Fault Tree)을 이용하여 개발하였다. 또한 사건수목(Event Tree)을 이용하여 인명피해를 초래하는 영향인자를 사건진전 시나리오로 구성하고, 위험사건별 사고 심각도를 등가사망지수로 환산하여 계산하는 위험도 평가모델을 개발하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 비용효과 분석, 안전대책의 민감도 분석 등에 다양하게 활용될 수 있다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권6호
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• pp.854-859
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• 2018

Calculating minimal cut sets is a typical quantification method used to evaluate the top event probability for a fault tree. If minimal cut sets cannot be calculated or if the accuracy of the quantification result is in doubt, the Monte Carlo method can provide an alternative for fault tree quantification. The Monte Carlo method for fault tree quantification tends to take a long time because it repeats the calculation for a large number of samples. Herein, proposal is made to improve the quantification algorithm of a fault tree with circular logic. We developed a top-down iteration algorithm that combines the characteristics of the top-down approach and the iteration approach, thereby reducing the computation time of the Monte Carlo method.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.41-55
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• 2018

Accidental oil and gas leak is a critical concern for the offshore industry because it can lead to severe consequences and as a result, it is imperative to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the consequences of the leakage in order to assess the risk. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a technique to identify the consequences that can result from the occurrence of a hazardous event. The probability of occurrence of the consequences is evaluated by the ETA, based on the failure probabilities of the sequential events. Conventional ETA deals with events with crisp failure probabilities. In offshore applications, it is often difficult to arrive at a single probability measure due to lack of data or imprecision in data. In such a scenario, fuzzy set theory can be applied to handle imprecision and data uncertainty. This paper presents fuzzy ETA (FETA) methodology to compute the probability of the outcomes initiated due to oil/gas leak in an actual offshore-onshore installation. Post FETA, sensitivity analysis by Fuzzy Weighted Index (FWI) method is performed to find the event that has the maximum contribution to the severe sequences. It is found that events of 'ignition', spreading of fire to 'equipment' and 'other areas' are the highest contributors to the severe consequences, followed by failure of 'leak detection' and 'fire detection' and 'fire water not being effective'. It is also found that the frequency of severe consequences that are catastrophic in nature obtained by ETA is one order less than that obtained by FETA, thereby implying that in ETA, the uncertainty does not propagate through the event tree. The ranking of severe sequences based on their probability, however, are identical in both ETA and FETA.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.936-943
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 철도사고 위험분석 및 위험도 평가절차에 따라 철도건널목사고에 대한 정량적인 위험도평가를 위한 모델을 사건수목 및 고장수목 분석기법을 이용하여 개발하였다. 위험사건이 발생하여 인명피해로 결과하는 과정에서의 영향인자들을 분석하여 사고진전 시나리오를 구성하였으며, 고장수목분석(FTA, Fault Tree Analysis)을 이용하여 시나리오 경로별 발생확률을 산정하고, 사건수목분석(ETA, Event Tree Analysis)을 이용하여 심각도 값을 산정함으로써 이들의 조합으로 위험도를 산정하는 위험도 평가 모델을 제시하였다. 또한 실제발생한 위험도값과 개발모델을 이용하여 산정된 위험도값의 비교를 통하여 개발모델의 신뢰성 및 타당성을 검증하였다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제53권10호
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• pp.565-572
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• 2004

This paper proposes an expert system which can enhance the accuracy of real-time bus reconfiguration strategy by adopting local minimum tree search method and minimize the spreading effect of the fault by considering totally the operating condition when a main transformer fault occurs in the automated substation. The local minimum tree search method to expand the best-first search method. This method has an advantage which can improve the performance of solution within the limits of the real-time condition. The inference strategy proposed expert system consists of two stages. The first stage determines the switching candidate set by searching possible switching candidates starting from the main transformer or busbar related to the event. And, second stage determines the rational real-time bus reconfiguration strategy based on heuristic rules for the obtained switching candidate set. Also, this paper studies the generalized distribution substation modelling using graph theory and a substation database is designed based on the study result. The inference engine of the expert system and the substation database is implemented in MFC function of Visual C++. Finally, the performance and effectiveness of the proposed expert system is verified by comparing the best-first search solution and local minimum tree search solution based on diversity event simulations for typical distribution substation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권10호
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• pp.2238-2249
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• 2020

In a seismic PSA, dependency among seismic failures of components has not been explicitly modeled in the fault tree or event tree. This dependency is separately identified and assigned with numbers that range from zero to unity that reflect the level of the mutual correlation among seismic failures. Because of complexity and difficulty in calculating combination probabilities of correlated seismic failures in complex seismic event tree and fault tree, there has been a great need of development to explicitly model seismic correlation in terms of seismic common cause failures (CCFs). If seismic correlations are converted into seismic CCFs, it is possible to calculate an accurate value of a top event probability or frequency of a complex seismic fault tree by using the same procedure as for internal, fire, and flooding PSA. This study first proposes a methodology to explicitly model seismic dependency by converting correlated seismic failures into seismic CCFs. As a result, this methodology will allow systems analysts to quantify seismic risk as what they have done with the CCF method in internal, fire, and flooding PSA.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.91-102
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• 2000

Nowadays, every kind of system is changed so complex and enormous, it is necessary to assure system reliability, product liability and safety. Fault tree analysis(FTA) is a reliability/safety design analysis technique which starts from consideration of system failure effect, referred to as “top event”, and proceeds by determining how these can be caused by single or combined lower level failures or events. So in fault tree analysis, it is important to find the combination of events which affect system failure. Minimal cut sets(MCS) and minimal path sets(MPS) are used in this process. FTA-I computer program is developed which calculates MCS and MPS in terms of Gw-Basic computer language considering Fussell's algorithm. FTA-II computer program which analyzes importance and function cost of VE consists. of five programs as follows : (l) Structural importance of basic event, (2) Structural probability importance of basic event, (3) Structural criticality importance of basic event, (4) Cost-Failure importance of basic event, (5) VE function cost analysis for importance of basic event. In this study, a method of initiation such as failure, function and cost in FTA is suggested, and especially the priority rank which is calculated by computer-aided decision analysis program developed in this study can be used in decision making determining the most important basic event under various conditions. Also the priority rank can be available for the case which selects system component in FMEA analysis.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.187-195
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• 2009

결점나무 분석에서 불확실설 중요도 측도는 basic event 확률 ($q_i$)의 불확실성이 top event 확률 (Q)의 불확실성에 얼마나 많이 기여하는지를 나타내는 측도로서, top event 확률의 불확실성을 감소시키기 위하여 어떤 basic event 확률의 불확실성을 감소시키는 것이 효과적인지를 밝히는데 사용된다. $q_i$의 분산 $\upsilon_i$가 백분율 단위로 한 단위 변화될 때 Q의 분산 V의 변화량을 평가하는 측도가 불확실성 중요도 측도로서 많은 저자들에 의해 제안되었으며, 이 측도를 계산하기 위해서는 V와 ${\partial}V/{\partial}{\upsilon}_i$를 해석적인 방법이나 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 사용하여 계산해야 한다. 그러나 대규모 결점나무에 대해서 V와 ${\partial}V/{\partial}{\upsilon}_i$를 해석적인 방법으로 계산하는 것은 매우 복잡하며, 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 사용하여 V와 ${\partial}V/{\partial}{\upsilon}_i$의 안정적인 추정치를 얻는 것은 매우 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 불확실성 중요도 측도를 실험적인 방법을 이용하여 평가하기 위한 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 방법은 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 이용하는 방법에 비해 계산량이 매우 적으며, 불확실성 중요도의 안정적 인 추정치를 제공한다.