• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.212-218
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• 2010

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems with respect to sample sizes. To compare accuracy in reliability estimation methods, quantal-response data, characterizing one-shot systems, were simulated using failure times of LED obtained through the accelerated life test, and then the true reliability over time was evaluated using the failure times. The simulated quantal-response data were used to estimate the true reliability through applying reliability estimation methods in open literature. Accuracy of each reliability estimation method was compared in terms of both SSE (Sum of Squared Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), and then estimation trend for each method is found. Feasible bounds which true reliability would exist within were estimated through applying the found trends to quantal-response data set of a real weapon system.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.32-40
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of sampling points on accuracy of storage reliability estimation for one-shot systems by assuming a weibull distribution as a storage reliability distribution. Also propose method for determining of sampling points for increase the accuracy of reliability estimation. Methods: Weibull distribution was divided into three sections for confirming the possible to estimate the parameters of the weibull distribution only some section's sample. Generate quantal response data for failure data. And performed parameter estimation with quantal response data. Results: If reduce sample point interval of 1 section, increase the accuracy of reliability estimation although sampling only section 1. Even reduce total number of sampling point, reducing sampling time interval of the 1 zone improve the accuracy of reliability estimation. Conclusion: Method to increase the accuracy of reliability estimation is increasing number of sampling and the sampling points. But apply this method to One-shot system is difficult because test cost of one-shot system is expensive. So propose method of accuracy of storage reliability estimation of one-shot system by adjustment of the sampling point. And by dividing the section it could reduce the total sampling point.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.982-989
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• 2010

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems such as ammunitions. Quantal-response data, following a binomial distribution at each sampling time, characterizes lifetimes of one-shot systems. Various quantal-response data of different sample sizes are simulated using lifetime data randomly sampled from assumed weibull distributions with different shape parameters but the identical scale parameter in this paper. Then, reliability estimation methods in open literature are applied to the simulated quantal-response data to estimate true reliability over time. Rankings in estimation accuracy for different sample sizes are determined using t-test of SSE. Furthermore, MSE at each time, including both bias and variance of estimated reliability metrics for each method are analyzed to investigate how much both bias and variance contribute the SSE. From the MSE analysis, MSE provides reliability estimation trend for each method. Parametric estimation method provides more accurate reliability estimation results than the other methods for most of sample sizes.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.435-441
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• 2012

This paper provides simulation-based results of effect analysis of sample size and sampling periods on accuracy of reliability estimation methods using multiple comparisons with analysis of variance. Sum of squared errors in estimated reliability measures were evaluated through applying seven estimation methods for one-shot systems to simulated quantal-response data. Analysis of variance was implemented to investigate change in these errors according to variations of sample size and sampling periods for each estimation method, and then the effect analysis on accuracy in reliability estimation was performed using multiple comparisons based on sample size and sampling periods. An efficient way to allocate both sample size and sampling periods for reliability estimation tests of one-shot systems is proposed in this paper from the effect analysis results.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.39-48
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• 2020

This study proposes a fast estimation method of dynamic reliability indices or failure probability for SDOF structure subjected to earthquake excitations. The proposed estimation method attempts to derive coefficient function for correcting dynamic effects from static reliability analysis in order to estimate the dynamic reliability analysis results. For this purpose, a total of 60 cases of structures with various characteristics of natural frequency and damping ratio under various allowable limits were taken into account, and various types of approximation coefficient functions were considered as potential candidate models for dynamic effect correction. Each reliability index was computed by directly performing static and dynamic reliability analyses for the given 60 cases, and nonlinear curve fittings for potential candidate models were performed from the computed reliability index data. Then, the optimal estimation model was determined by evaluating the accuracy of the dynamic reliability analysis results estimated from each candidate model. Additional static and dynamic reliability analyses were performed for new models with different characteristics of natural frequency, damping ratio and allowable limit. From these results, the accuracy and numerical efficiency of the optimal estimation model were compared with the dynamic reliability analysis results. As a result, it was confirmed that the proposed model can be a very efficient tool of the dynamic reliability estimation for seismically excited SDOF structure since it can provide very fast and accurate reliability analysis results.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.661-668
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• 1999

Reliability estimation using Gibbs sampler considered for modeling mixture exponential reliability problems. Gibbs sampler is developed to compute the features of the posterior distribution. Bayesian estimation of complicated functions requires simpler esti-mation techniques due to the mathematical difficulties involved in the Bayes approach. The Maximum likelihood estimator and the Gibbs estimator of reliability of the system are derived. By simula-tion risk behaviors of derived estimators are compared. model de-termination based on relative error is considered. A numerical study with a simulated data set is provided.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제59권2호
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• pp.202-205
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• 2010

In this paper, mechanical reliability(Life-time) estimation method for 25.8kV SIS(Solid Insulated Switchgear) has been studied. Recently enacted KEPCO's standard includes clause that have to submit a warrantable reliability data for life-time(over B10 25 years) of an epoxy-solid insulating material. Accordingly, this research was carried out on the ALT(Accelerated Life Test) and Life-Estimation method for SIS's insulating material. Mechanical life-time estimation for SIS's insulating material is to verify reliability for tensile creep & fatigue stress, which is the major mechanical stress of SIS. This study proved that SIS's reliability for mechanical stress and established that confidence for estimation results in further verification test.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.581-587
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• 2011

계수형 데이터를 이용하여 신뢰도를 추정하는 방법은 원자력 설비, 의약품, 우주발사체 등과 같은 다양한 시스템의 신뢰도 평가에 사용되고 있다. 본 논문은 모수 추정법을 포함하여 문헌에 공개된 신뢰도 추정방법에 대한 샘플 수 및 샘플링 시점 수 변화에 대한 정확성의 민감도를 분석하고 비교한 결과를 제시한다. 또한 민감도 분석 결과를 이용하여 각 추정 방법의 정확성을 향상시키기 위한 방안을 제시하였다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제35권10호
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• pp.1291-1298
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• 2011

본 논문은 탄약, 미사일, 우주발사체 등과 같은 일회성(one-shot) 시스템의 가부반응데이터를 이용하여 신뢰도를 추정하는 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 제안한 방법은 모수 추정법을 기반으로 한다. 제안한 방법은 가부반응 데이터의 시간에 따른 고장 비율 감소를 고려하였으며 모수 추정법의 문제점을 극복할 수 있다. 기존 문헌에 공개된 7 가지 추정방법들과 제안한 방법과의 정확성을 비교하여 제안한 방법을 검증하였다. 정확성 비교 시, 다양한 샘플 수 변화를 고려하여 신뢰도 추정결과에 대한 SSE를 이용하였다. 정확성 비교 결과, 제안한 방법은 다른 방법에 비해 정확성이 높은 신뢰도 추정결과를 제공하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.405-414
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• 2012

In this paper, we propose a reliability estimation method for DI&C systems. At the system level, a fault tree model is suggested and Boolean algebra is used to obtain the minimal cut sets. At the component level, an exponential distribution is used to model hardware failures, and Bayesian estimation is suggested to estimate the failure rate. Additionally, a binomial distribution is used to model software failures, and a recently developed software reliability estimation method is suggested to estimate the software failure rate. The overall system reliability is then estimated based on minimal cut sets, hardware failure rates and software failure rates.