• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation activities

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A Contemplation on Measures to Advance Logistics Centers (물류센터 선진화를 위한 발전 방안에 대한 소고)

  • Sun, Il-Suck;Lee, Won-Dong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2011
  • As the world becomes more globalized, business competition becomes fiercer, while consumers' needs for less expensive quality products are on the increase. Business operations make an effort to secure a competitive edge in costs and services, and the logistics industry, that is, the industry operating the storing and transporting of goods, once thought to be an expense, begins to be considered as the third cash cow, a source of new income. Logistics centers are central to storage, loading and unloading of deliveries, packaging operations, and dispensing goods' information. As hubs for various deliveries, they also serve as a core infrastructure to smoothly coordinate manufacturing and selling, using varied information and operation systems. Logistics centers are increasingly on the rise as centers of business supply activities, growing beyond their previous role of primarily storing goods. They are no longer just facilities; they have become logistics strongholds that encompass various features from demand forecast to the regulation of supply, manufacturing, and sales by realizing SCM, taking into account marketability and the operation of service and products. However, despite these changes in logistics operations, some centers have been unable to shed their past roles as warehouses. For the continuous development of logistics centers, various measures would be needed, including a revision of current supporting policies, formulating effective management plans, and establishing systematic standards for founding, managing, and controlling logistics centers. To this end, the research explored previous studies on the use and effectiveness of logistics centers. From a theoretical perspective, an evaluation of the overall introduction, purposes, and transitions in the use of logistics centers found issues to ponder and suggested measures to promote and further advance logistics centers. First, a fact-finding survey to establish demand forecast and standardization is needed. As logistics newspapers predicted that after 2012 supply would exceed demand, causing rents to fall, the business environment for logistics centers has faltered. However, since there is a shortage of fact-finding surveys regarding actual demand for domestic logistic centers, it is hard to predict what the future holds for this industry. Accordingly, the first priority should be to get to the essence of the current market situation by conducting accurate domestic and international fact-finding surveys. Based on those, management and evaluation indicators should be developed to build the foundation for the consistent advancement of logistics centers. Second, many policies for logistics centers should be revised or developed. Above all, a guideline for fair trade between a shipper and a commercial logistics center should be enacted. Since there are no standards for fair trade between them, rampant unfair trades according to market practices have brought chaos to market orders, and now the logistics industry is confronting its own difficulties. Therefore, unfair trade cases that currently plague logistics centers should be gathered by the industry and fair trade guidelines should be established and implemented. In addition, restrictive employment regulations for foreign workers should be eased, and logistics centers should be charged industry rates for the use of electricity. Third, various measures should be taken to improve the management environment. First, we need to find out how to activate value-added logistics. Because the traditional purpose of logistics centers was storage and loading/unloading of goods, their profitability had a limit, and the need arose to find a new angle to create a value added service. Logistic centers have been perceived as support for a company's storage, manufacturing, and sales needs, not as creators of profits. The center's role in the company's economics has been lowering costs. However, as the logistics' management environment spiraled, along with its storage purpose, developing a new feature of profit creation should be a desirable goal, and to achieve that, value added logistics should be promoted. Logistics centers can also be improved through cost estimation. In the meantime, they have achieved some strides in facility development but have still fallen behind in others, particularly in management functioning. Lax management has been rampant because the industry has not developed a concept of cost estimation. The centers have since made an effort toward unification, standardization, and informatization while realizing cost reductions by establishing systems for effective management, but it has been hard to produce profits. Thus, there is an urgent need to estimate costs by determining a basic cost range for each division of work at logistics centers. This undertaking can be the first step to improving the ineffective aspects of how they operate. Ongoing research and constant efforts have been made to improve the level of effectiveness in the manufacturing industry, but studies on resource management in logistics centers are hardly enough. Thus, a plan to calculate the optimal level of resources necessary to operate a logistics center should be developed and implemented in management behavior, for example, by standardizing the hours of operation. If logistics centers, shippers, related trade groups, academic figures, and other experts could launch a committee to work with the government and maintain an ongoing relationship, the constraint and cooperation among members would help lead to coherent development plans for logistics centers. If the government continues its efforts to provide financial support, nurture professional workers, and maintain safety management, we can anticipate the continuous advancement of logistics centers.

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Evaluation of Salivary Cariogenic Factors in the 6th Grade Children of the Primary School (국민학교 6학년 아동의 치아우식 발생에 미치는 타액성 요인 분석)

  • Park, Myung-Ho
    • Journal of Technologic Dentistry
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 1988
  • For the detection of the active cariogenic factors contributing to caries development, some practical methods such as the Snyder test, estimation of salivary flow rate and salivary buffering capacity test were evaluated statistically by comparing DMFT and DMFS indexes. Total 122 children (62 male and 60 female ; 64 rural and 58 urban) were selected ramdomly from the 6th grade of the primary school and their salivary cariogenic factors were analysed and evaluated. Among the total 122 children, 78.7% was positive in the snyder test in which the marked, moderate and slight caries activities were 29.5%, 30.3% and 18.9%, respectively. In the Snyder test, 74.45% was positive in urban children while 84.48% was positive in rural children. DMFT and DMFS indexes were markedly lower in negative group than positive group of the Snyder test (p<0.01). The mean and standard deviation of stimulated salivary flow rate was 6.97$\pm$2.57 in male and 6.34$\pm$2.54 in female but no significant difference was observed in sexuality. The stimulated salivary flow rate of urban children was slightly higher that of rural but there was no significant difference between them. However, the group that showed below average in the stimulated salivary flow rate was markedly higher in DMFI and DMFT indexes than the group of above average. The mean and standard deviation of stimulated salivary buffering capacity was 7.65$\pm$2.19 in male and 6.80$\pm$1.67 in female. This difference was significant statistically(p<0.05). Stimulated salivary buffering capacity of urban children was higher than that of rural. Increases in stimulated salivary flow rate and buffering capacity had reduced the onset of dental caries of 14-year-old permanent tooth.

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A Regression-Model-based Method for Combining Interestingness Measures of Association Rule Mining (연관상품 추천을 위한 회귀분석모형 기반 연관 규칙 척도 결합기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.127-141
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    • 2017
  • Advances in Internet technologies and the proliferation of mobile devices enabled consumers to approach a wide range of goods and services, while causing an adverse effect that they have hard time reaching their congenial items even if they devote much time to searching for them. Accordingly, businesses are using the recommender systems to provide tools for consumers to find the desired items more easily. Association Rule Mining (ARM) technology is advantageous to recommender systems in that ARM provides intuitive form of a rule with interestingness measures (support, confidence, and lift) describing the relationship between items. Given an item, its relevant items can be distinguished with the help of the measures that show the strength of relationship between items. Based on the strength, the most pertinent items can be chosen among other items and exposed to a given item's web page. However, the diversity of the measures may confuse which items are more recommendable. Given two rules, for example, one rule's support and confidence may not be concurrently superior to the other rule's. Such discrepancy of the measures in distinguishing one rule's superiority from other rules may cause difficulty in selecting proper items for recommendation. In addition, in an online environment where a web page or mobile screen can provide a limited number of recommendations that attract consumer interest, the prudent selection of items to be included in the list of recommendations is very important. The exposure of items of little interest may lead consumers to ignore the recommendations. Then, such consumers will possibly not pay attention to other forms of marketing activities. Therefore, the measures should be aligned with the probability of consumer's acceptance of recommendations. For this reason, this study proposes a model-based approach to combine those measures into one unified measure that can consistently determine the ranking of recommended items. A regression model was designed to describe how well the measures (independent variables; i.e., support, confidence, and lift) explain consumer's acceptance of recommendations (dependent variables, hit rate of recommended items). The model is intuitive to understand and easy to use in that the equation consists of the commonly used measures for ARM and can be used in the estimation of hit rates. The experiment using transaction data from one of the Korea's largest online shopping malls was conducted to show that the proposed model can improve the hit rates of recommendations. From the top of the list to 13th place, recommended items in the higher rakings from the proposed model show the higher hit rates than those from the competitive model's. The result shows that the proposed model's performance is superior to the competitive model's in online recommendation environment. In a web page, consumers are provided around ten recommendations with which the proposed model outperforms. Moreover, a mobile device cannot expose many items simultaneously due to its limited screen size. Therefore, the result shows that the newly devised recommendation technique is suitable for the mobile recommender systems. While this study has been conducted to cover the cross-selling in online shopping malls that handle merchandise, the proposed method can be expected to be applied in various situations under which association rules apply. For example, this model can be applied to medical diagnostic systems that predict candidate diseases from a patient's symptoms. To increase the efficiency of the model, additional variables will need to be considered for the elaboration of the model in future studies. For example, price can be a good candidate for an explanatory variable because it has a major impact on consumer purchase decisions. If the prices of recommended items are much higher than the items in which a consumer is interested, the consumer may hesitate to accept the recommendations.

Estimation of Uranium Particle Concentration in the Korean Peninsula Caused by North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Facility (북한 우라늄 농축시설로 인한 한반도에서의 공기중 우라늄 입자 농도 예측)

  • Kwak, Sung-Woo;Kang, Han-Byeol;Shin, Jung-Ki;Lee, Junghyun
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2014
  • North Korea's uranium enrichment facility is a matter of international concern. It is of particular alarming to South Korea with regard to the security and safety of the country. This situation requires continuous monitoring of the DPRK and emergency preparedness on the part of the ROK. To assess the detectability of an undeclared uranium enrichment plant in North Korea, uranium concentrations in the air at both a short and a long distance from the enrichment facility were estimated. $UF_6$ source terms were determined by using existing information on North Korean facility and data from the operation experience of enrichment plants from other countries. Using the calculated source terms, two atmospheric dispersion models (Gaussian Plume Model and HYSPLIT models) and meteorological data were used to estimate the uranium particle concentrations from the Yongbyon enrichment facility. A maximum uranium concentration and its location are dependent upon the meteorological conditions and the height of the UF6 release point. This study showed that the maximum uranium concentration around the enrichment facility was about $1.0{\times}10^{-7}g{\cdot}m^{-3}$. The location of the maximum concentration was within about 0.4 km of the facility. It has been assumed that the uranium sample of about a few micrograms (${\mu}g$) could be obtained; and that few micrograms of uranium can be easily measured with current measurement instruments. On the contrary, a uranium concentration at a distance of more than 100 kilometers from the enrichment facility was estimated to be about $1.0{\times}10^{-13}{\sim}1.0{\times}10^{-15}g{\cdot}m^{-3}$, which is less than back-ground level. Therefore, based on the results of our paper, an air sample taken within the vicinity of the Yongbyon enrichment facility could be used to determine as to whether or not North Korea is carrying out an undeclared nuclear program. However, the air samples taken at a longer distance of a few hundred kilometers would prove difficult in detecting a clandestine nuclear activities.

An Analysis on Rater Error in Holistic Scoring for Performance Assessments of Middle School Students' Science Investigation Activities (중학생 과학탐구활동 수행평가 시 총체적 채점에서 나타나는 채점자간 불일치 유형 분석)

  • Kim, Hyung-Jun;Yoo, June-Hee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.160-181
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to understand raters' errors in rating performance assessments of science inquiry. For this, 60 middle school students performed scientific inquiry about sound propagation and 4 trained raters rated their activity sheets. Variance components estimation for the result of the generalizability analysis for the person, task, rater design, the variance components for rater, rater by person and rater by task are about 25%. Among 4 raters, 2 raters' severity is higher than the other two raters and their severities were stabilized. Four raters' rating agreed with each other in 51 cases among the 240 cases. Through the raters' conferences, the rater error types for 189 disagreed cases were identified as one of three types; different salience, severity, and overlooking. The error type 1, different salience, showed 38% of the disagreed cases. Salient task and salient assessment components are different among the raters. The error type 2, severity, showed 25% and the error type 3, overlooking showed 31%. The error type 2 seemed to have happened when the students responses were on the borders of two levels. Error type 3 seemed to have happened when raters overlooked some important part of students' responses because she or he immersed her or himself in one's own salience. To reduce the above rater errors, raters' conference in salience of task and assesment components are needed before performing the holistic scoring of complex tasks. Also raters need to recognize her/his severity and efforts to keep one's own severity. Multiple raters are needed to prevent the errors from being overlooked. The further studies in raters' tendencies and sources of different interpretations on the rubric are suggested.

Estimation Analysis of the Value of Welfare Facilities for the Aged Management (노인복지시설의 경영가치 추정 분석)

  • Kim, Keum Hwan;Pak, Ae Kyung;Joe, Soon Joem
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2013
  • The social welfare service is expanding to different field as the social welfare budget is increasing. By this opportunity, it needs to make clear of the basis of argument that the necessity of development of korean government's support and aid by social policy should be worked. Welfare economics perspective, this study used by the operating expenditure in welfare facilities for the elderly old people to effect social benefits to be gained, in other words, business value analysis. Local elderly people, provide opportunities to participate in the economic activities of the family welfare services offered to attainment of the elderly welfare policy, and provide disease prevention and health promotion opportunities, to enhance the satisfaction of life, including a wide range of impact will cause. In this study, elderly people use the welfare facilities for the elderly when they get the benefits by applying the AHP analysis techniques operating value was calculated. Elderly Welfare Center operated by the result of applying P senior welfare center Case of the metropolitan area value was estimated 248.4 billion won. Contribute to the effects caused by the cost factor of the analysis was 23.1% of the total 57.3 billion won. Independence elements 57.6 billion (23.2%), the analysis of the therapeutic elements 133.4 billion (53.7%) of the net was. The result of the study anticipates the role of basic research material for the necessity of intervention, support, and aid by the Welfare facilities for the elderly field at this point in time where the welfare budget policy in terms of universal social service is reinforced, rather than the trend, until recently, of realizing the Elderly welfare budget and service as Consumption expenditure and consumable benefits and the function of performing the effect and evaluation in tentative action of social conflict.

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Estimation of POC Export Fluxes Using 234Th/238U Disequilibria in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica; Preliminary Result (남극 아문젠해에서 234Th/238U 비평형법을 사용한 유광대에서 심층으로의 입자상 유기탄소 침강플럭스 추정; 예비결과)

  • Kim, Mi Seon;Choi, Man Sik;Lee, Sang Heon;Lee, Sang Hoon;Rhee, Tae Siek;Hahm, Doshik
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2014
  • In order to understand the carbon cycle in the Amundsen Sea of the Southern Ocean, the export fluxes of particulate organic carbon from the euphotic zone to deep water estimated using ${\psi}$/${\psi}$ disequilibrium method. Seawaters in 14 water columns were collected during February and March 2012, and analyzed for total and dissolved ${\psi}$, and particulate organic carbon. Total ${\psi}$ activities in the water column showed deficiency and excess relative to those of ${\psi}$ depending on the water depth. Deficiency of total ${\psi}$ in the euphotic zone showed mirror images both with chlorophyll-a and fluorescence, and was consistent with the loss of nitrate, which indicated the effect of biological activity. In addition, deficiency of total ${\psi}$ from deep water was associated with the increase of total dissolvable Fe/Mn concentration. Excess total ${\psi}$ activity presented below the euphotic zone might be related to particulate ${\psi}$ concentrated in this water depth. Mean export flux of ${\psi}$ estimated using the steady state model was $867{\pm}246dpmm^{-2}day^{-1}$. Mean export flux of particulate organic carbon, which were estimated by the product of total ${\psi}$ flux and ratio of POC/${\psi}$ ($7.08{\pm}4.27{\mu}molCdpm^{-1}$) in the sinking particles, was $5.9{\pm}3.9mmolCm^{-2}day^{-1}$. These fluxes were similar levels to those in the Weddell Sea during February and March 2008. Export ratios (ThE) relative to the primary production in the euphotic zone were in the range of 3-54% (av. 28%).

Estimation of Spatial Accumulation and transportation of Chl-$\alpha$ by the Numerical Modeling in Red Tide of Chinhae Bay (진해만 적조에 있어서 수치모델링에 의한 Chl-$\alpha$의 공간적 집적과 확산 평가)

  • Lee Dae-In
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2004
  • The summer distribution of $Cha-{alpha}$ and physical processes for simulating outbreak region of red tide were estimated by the Eco-Hydrodynamic model in Chinhae Bay. As a result of simulation of surface residual currents, the southward flow come in contact with the northward flow at the inlet and western part of bay in case of windlessness and below wind velocity 2 m/sec. As wind velocity increases, the velocity and direction of currents were fairly shifted. The predicted concentration of $Cha-{alpha}$ exceeded 20 mg/㎥ in Masan and Haengam Bays, and most regions were over 10 mg/㎥, which meant the possibility of red tide outbreak. From the results of the contributed physical processes to $Cha-{alpha}$, accumulation sites were distributed at the northern part of Kadok channel, around the Chilcheon island, the western part of Kajo island and some area of Chindong Bay. On the other hand, inner parts of the study area such as Masan Bay were estimated as the sites of strong algal activities. Masan and Haengam Bay are considered as the initial outbreak region of red tide by the modeling and observed data, and then red tide expanded to other areas such as physical accumulation region and western inner bay, as depending on environmental variation. The increase of wind velocity led to decrease of $Cha-{alpha}$ and enlargement of accumulation region. The variation of intensity of radiation and sunshine duration caused to rapidly fluctuation of $Cha-{alpha}$: however, it was not largely affected by the variation of pollutant loads from the land only.

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Mortality Change of North Korean People and its Association with State Production and Welfare System (경제 위기 전후 북한 주민의 사망률 동태의 특성과 변화)

  • Park, Keong-Suk
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.101-130
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    • 2012
  • This study examines mortality change in North Korea and its association with state production and welfare systems. Two main subjects are analyzed. The first theme is to examine the reliability of mortality related data released by North Korea government authorities. Examining inner consistencies among mortality related statistics and comparing with mortality trends in other socialist societies, the study finds that mortality rate was under estimated. Under-estimation of mortality by North Korean authorities is regarded to result not only from political purpose which aims to propagate the regime's superiority but also from enumeration errors of vital statistics based on the residence registration. The second theme is to estimate the change in mortality of North Korean people since the establishment of DPRK, correcting errors of mortality data. Mortality of North Korean people is estimated to have improved largely by the early 1970s, to have been sluggish hereafter, and finally to have increased during the economic hardship period between 1993 and 2008. While large people died during the food crisis in the late 1990s, however the population loss caused by mortality increase was not so great as the proposition of the huge starvation was expected. It is partly because population turbulence occurred not just by mortality increase, rather it has progressed in the joint effects of fertility decline and exodus of North Korean people for food. It is also due to North Korean people's voluntary activities of informal economy. It is also worth noting the high mortality rate of North Korean men. The high mortality of North Korean men is likely due to men's mobilization for long time in army and labor with high risk of accident and their life styles.

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Impacts of R&D and Smallness of Scale on the Total Factor Productivity by Industry (R&D와 규모의 영세성이 산업별 총요소생산성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Dong-Ki;Lee, Bu-Hyung;Joo, Won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2007
  • There were many comprehensive analyses conducted within the existing research activities wherein factors affecting technology progress including investment in R&D vis-${\Box}$-vis their influences act as the determinants of TFP. Note, however, that there were few comprehensive analysis in the industrial research performed regarding the impact of the economy of scale as it affects TFP; most of these research studies dealt with the analysis of the non -parametric Malmquist productivity index or used the stochastic frontier production function models. No comprehensive analysis on the impacts of individual independent variables affecting TFP was performed. Therefore, this study obtained the TFP increase rate of each industry by analyzing the factors of the existing growth accounting equation and comprehensively analyzed the TFP determinants by constructing a comprehensive analysis model considering the investment in R&D and economy of scale (smallness by industry) as the influencers of TFP by industry. First, for the TFP increase rate of the 15 industries as a whole, the annual average increase rate for 1993${\sim}$ 1997 was approximately 3.8% only; during 1999${\sim}$ 2000 following the foreign exchange crisis, however, the annual increase rate rose to approximately 7.8%. By industry, the annual average increase rate of TFP between 1993 and 2000 stood at 11.6%, the highest in the electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing business and IT manufacturing sector. In contrast, a -0.4% increase rate was recorded in the furniture and other product manufacturing sectors. In the case of the service industry, the TFP increase rate was 7.3% in the transportation, warehousing, and communication sectors. This is much higher than the 2.9% posted in the electricity, water, and gas sectors and -3.7% recorded in the wholesale, food, and hotel businesses. The results of the comprehensive analysis conducted on the determinants of TFP showed that the correlations between R&D and TFP in general were positive (+) correlations whose significance has yet to be validated; in the model where the self-employed and unpaid family workers were used as proxy variables indicating the smallness of industry out of the total number of workers, however, significant negative (-) correlations were noted. On the other hand, the estimation factors of variables surrogating the smallness of scale in each industry showed that a consistently high "smallness of scale" in an industry means a decrease in the increase rate of TFP in the same industry.

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