• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimate the future value

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A Mathematical Model for Estimating Proper Taxi Fleet Size : Focusing on Pyeong-Taek City Case Study (택시총량산정을 위한 수리모형의 개발 : 평택시를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Suk Hee;Choi, Keechoo;Choi, Doo Sun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5D
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    • pp.633-639
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    • 2011
  • To estimate a proper fleet size of taxi, a daily archived tachograph was analyzed for both corporate taxi and owner-driver taxi. Mathematical model to estimate a desirable number of taxi was developed using city's characteristics of Pyeong-taek city case. This model could be used as coefficient of determination of city's characteristics model(revised R square) was 0.970. a total amount of taxi number in the future for the city of Pyeong-taek. As a result, the model produced a proper fleet size of Pyeong-taek city in the future as 1,794 taxis by 2014, which was higher in number by 214 taxis, compared to 2009. Also, the model of the service rate, considering operation condition, was used to analyze a total number of taxies. As a result, the model showed a total number of taxis as 1,224 taxis by 2014, which is lower in number by 356 taxies, compared to 2009. It is desirable to use both city's characteristics model and the service rate model to estimate a total number of taxis in conclusion. As a result of adopting average value from two model, the model produced a total supply plan of Pyeong-taek city as 1,509 taxis by 2014, which is smaller than in number by 71 taxis, compared to 2009.

A Study on Setting Up Work Conditions for Improving Productiviyt of BIM-based Cost Estimation (BIM 견적 작업 생산성 향상을 위한 업무 환경 조성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Ah;Park, Gweon;Song, Byeong-Seob;Choi, Chel-Ho;Chin, Sang-Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2016
  • Many cases have mentioned the effect by applying BIM on the media such as at conferences, workshops, reports, ect. These cases reported that costs could be saved directly by prevention the need to re-do and reconstruct caused by using BIM. BIM users mentioned that using BIM has potential value in saving costs. The benefits of the BIM include intangible value that cannot be estimated in costs, such as reducing work time and improving productivity. However, the financial value of using BIM, such as Return on Investment, has not yet been exposed, and BIM users have a negative view of the financial value of BIM in Korea. Therefore, this study has researched the effects of applying BIM on construction estimate services in view of business productivity, not finance. This study compared the traditional and BIM based estimation, and verified the effect of estimating BIM through work sampling. This study investigated a precondition for getting the effects of BIM based estimation. The results show a need for BIM education, 3D Modeling standards, and database on quantity in order to improve product ivity and reduce work time on BIM based estimation

A Study on the Area Effect of Color by the Observing Distance and the Sight Angle (관찰거리와 시각에 따른 색채의 면적효과에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Jin-Sook;Yim Oh-Yon;Lee Deok-Hyung
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.15 no.4 s.57
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of the research is to estimate the amount of a color image reaction variation by changing areas in order to design the method to reduce an error about the color sample when it is applied in the real situation. The summary of the results acquired in this research is as followed. (1) With fixed observing distance of 1m, we observed that the value and chroma of each color object became higher as sight angle was increased as $2^{\circ},\;10^{\circ},\;and\;30^{\circ}$, even though the variation ratio was different. (2) With fixed sight angle of 10, we observed that the value and chroma of each color object becane higher as observing distance was changed from 1m to 3.3m, even though the variation ratio was different. (3) With same area, we observed that the values and chromas of each color object in the conditions of $1m-30^{\circ}\;and\;3.3m-10^{\circ}$ were almost same. (4) When the area became larger, the subjects tended to feel that colors were bright and clear with the increase of tone. In all the colors, the variation of a color reaction in chroma is higher than those in value. In future, we can observe the limit in applying to colors in the architecture by identifying the tendency of the color change according to the area change qualitatively.

The Validity and Reliability of a Screening Questionnaire for Parkinson's Disease in a Community

  • Kim, Jong-Hun;Cheong, Hae-Kwan;Lee, Chong-Sik;Yi, Sung-Eun;Park, Kun-Woo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: Parkinson's disease is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases in the elderly population. In order to estimate the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the community, the application of a good screening tool is essential. We evaluated the validity and reliability of a Parkinson's disease screening questionnaire and propose an alternative measure to improve its validity for use in community surveys. Methods: We designed the study in a three-phase approach consisting of a screening questionnaire, neurologic examination, and confirmatory examination. A repeated survey was administered to patients with disease detected in the community and on 150 subjects. We examined internal consistency using Cronbach's alpha test, test-retest reliability using the kappa statistic, and validity using sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curves. Unadjusted odds ratios were utilized for the estimation of weights for each questionnaire item. Results: The Cronbach's alpha of the questionnaire was 0.708. The kappa statistic for test-retest reliability was good to generally fair in most of the items. When newly proposed weighting scores were used, the optimum cut-off value was 7/8. When cut-off value was 5/6 for surveying prevalence in a community, the sensitivity was 0.98, and the specificity was 0.61, with simultaneous improvement in reliability. Conclusions: We recommend 5/6 as the ideal cut-off value for the survey of PD prevalence in community. This questionnaire designed for the Korean community could help future epidemiologic studies of PD.

Ki-67/MIB-1 as a Prognostic Marker in Cervical Cancer - a Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

  • Piri, Reza;Ghaffari, Alireza;Gholami, Nasrin;Azami-Aghdash, Saber;PourAli-Akbar, Yasmin;Saleh, Parviz;Naghavi-Behzad, Mohammad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.16
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    • pp.6997-7002
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    • 2015
  • Background: In cervical cancer patients it has been reported that there in a significant Ki-67/MIB-1 expression is correlated with survival in cervical cancer patients. However, the prognostic value is still not well understood. Materials and Methods: In the present meta-analysis the prognostic value of Ki-67/MIB-1 with regard to overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in cervical cancer was investigated. The databases of PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, Science Direct and Wiley Online Library were used to identify appropriate literature. Results: In order to explore the relationship between Ki-67/MIB-1 and cervical cancer, we have included 13 studies covering 894 patients in the current meta-analysis. The effect of Ki-67/MIB-1 on OS for pooled random effects HR estimate was 1.63 (95%confidence interval (CI) 1.09-2.45; P<0.05). The pooled HR for DFS was 1.26 (95%CI 0.58-2.73; P>0.05) and the subgroup analysis indicated Ki-67/MIB1 was associated with DFS (HR=3.67, 95%CI 2.65-5.09) in Asians. Conclusions: According to this meta-analysis, Ki-67/MIB-1 has prognostic value for OS in patients suffering from cervical cancer. For better evaluation of the prognostic role of Ki-67/MIB-1 on DFS, studies with larger numbers of patients are needed to validate present findings in the future.

A quantitative modeling approach to estimate the risks posed by the smuggled animal products contaminated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) virus

  • Hong, Ki-Ok;Lee, Gil-Hong;Pak, Son-Il
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2005
  • A quantitative risk assessment tool was used to provide estimates of the probability that foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to attempt to distinguish between parameter uncertainty and variability, using different assumptions on the effect of cooking at home, the effect of the fresh meat, and the effect of heat treatment at garbage processing facility. The median risk estimate was about 20.1% with a mean value of 27.4%. In a scenario regarding all beef and pork were considered as fresh meat the estimated median risk was 3.4%. The risk was greatly dependent on the survival parameters of the FMD virus during the cooking or heat treatment at garbage processing facility. Uncertainty about the proportion of garbage that is likely contaminated with FMD had a major positive influence on the risk, whereas conversion rate representing the size of a load had a major negative effect. This model was very useful in assessing the risk explored. However, the model also requires enhancements, such as the availability of more accurate data to verify the various assumptions considered such as FMD prevalence in a specific country, proportion of garbage which is recycled as feed, proportion of food discarded as garbage. Other factors including the effect of selection of animals for slaughter, ante- and post-mortem inspection, the domestic distribution of the smuggled products, and susceptible animals other than pigs, are need to be taken into account in the future model development.

An Economic Valuation of Arboretum Using Choice Experiments (선택실험법을 이용한 수목원의 경제가치 추정)

  • Hong, Sung-Kwon;Kim, Jae-Hyun;Jung, Sue-Jung;Tae, Yoo-Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this research is to identify satisfaction levels of the arboretum which will be provided in the Multifunctional Administrative City and to estimate the economic value of using choice experiments. The attributes were "Preservation", "Education", "Recreation", "Facility", "Accessibility" and the entrance fee. The main effects model was utilized to construct hypothetical alternatives. Calibration of the conjoint choice model revealed that 'wetlands' and 'forest trails' in "Preservation" and the "Recreation", respectively, were significant variables. This result indicates that respondents are willing to pay more for these if they are provided in the arboretum. Also, 'variety seeking' tendency, age, and income level positively influenced the provision of the arboretum. Involvement in preservation of natural environment, however, had a negative influence on the establishment of the arboretum. Because this study is the first attempt to estimate the economic valuation of an urban arboretum using choice experiment, there are several suggestions for future research in terms of determining the base level and inclusion of salient attribute levels.

Indoor Path Recognition Based on Wi-Fi Fingerprints

  • Donggyu Lee;Jaehyun Yoo
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2023
  • The existing indoor localization method using Wi-Fi fingerprinting has a high collection cost and relatively low accuracy, thus requiring integrated correction of convergence with other technologies. This paper proposes a new method that significantly reduces collection costs compared to existing methods using Wi-Fi fingerprinting. Furthermore, it does not require labeling of data at collection and can estimate pedestrian travel paths even in large indoor spaces. The proposed pedestrian movement path estimation process is as follows. Data collection is accomplished by setting up a feature area near an indoor space intersection, moving through the set feature areas, and then collecting data without labels. The collected data are processed using Kernel Linear Discriminant Analysis (KLDA) and the valley point of the Euclidean distance value between two data is obtained within the feature space of the data. We build learning data by labeling data corresponding to valley points and some nearby data by feature area numbers, and labeling data between valley points and other valley points as path data between each corresponding feature area. Finally, for testing, data are collected randomly through indoor space, KLDA is applied as previous data to build test data, the K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) algorithm is applied, and the path of movement of test data is estimated by applying a correction algorithm to estimate only routes that can be reached from the most recently estimated location. The estimation results verified the accuracy by comparing the true paths in indoor space with those estimated by the proposed method and achieved approximately 90.8% and 81.4% accuracy in two experimental spaces, respectively.

Estimation of Industrial Water Supply Benefits Using Production Function Approach (생산함수 접근법에 의한 공업용수 공급편익 산정 방안)

  • Kim, Gil Ho;Yi, Choong Sung;Lee, Sang Won;Shim, Myung Pil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2009
  • Industrial water supplied by water resource project is essential input materials along with labor, capital and land for companies. It is very important to stably secure these input materials in order for the industry to generate additional values. If the supply of industrial water is stopped, it is known damage for the industry is greater than domestic water or agriculture water based on same amount of supply. Like this, the actual value of industrial water has been highly acknowledged from the intuitive perspective, but study on the value and benefits of industrial water has been rarely conducted. Therefore, this study verified the value of industrial water supplied from water resource project, and used marginal production value as a measure to estimate the benefits of industrial water in the analysis of economic efficiency. As a result of empirical analysis using Cobb-Douglas production function and Translog production function, industries' average marginal production value was $5,427KRW/m^3$ and $5,583KRW/m^3$ respectively. The marginal production value for eleven industries were estimated by using same method. The marginal production value by industries presented by this study will be used as important data to calculate benefits of industrial water in the future. Moreover, the result of this study will provide reasonable criteria for decision making on the allocation of water in emergency situation, and problem of resource supply from water resource project.

Effectiveness analysis about Readjustment of Fishery Permit (어업허가 일제정비제도 도입에 따른 효과분석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Nam;Jung, Jin-Ho
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.97-112
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    • 2011
  • The coastal and offshore fishery to manage from a fishery permit system in our country at present seems to be a sign of lots problem, which are illegal fishing, a permit rent, non fishing vessel the purpose of vessel reduction, fishery compensation, tax exemption oil, the excessive occurrence of administrative cost due to differences during a period of a fishery permit. All the readjustment system for the permit has suggested an effective solution for a fishery permit management, the maintenance of a fishery order(the prevention of illegal fishery), the prevention of unused fishery, the entrance of new vessel in coastal fishery and it's system has prevent this problems in ahead. This paper has estimated an prevention convenience for an illegal spill of the tax exemption oil, actual effects of vessel reduction, the conservation of fishery resource for the future value and carried out an economic analysis to estimate compliance cost for the system introduction. Also, this study have analyzed throughly the coastal fishery situation and catched lots of issues on the management for the permit system. Especially, the problems improving the readjustment introduction for the permit have estimated the social and economic effects quantitatively and qualitatively with a calculated technique to classify various scenarios. This paper has judged correctly the term of validity for the permit to shorten as a result of the estimation and it will be to take the net convenience cost 1,655thousand million won. The results of this study have expect to provide a basic data to introduce the readjustment system for the permit.