• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.51 no.9
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• pp.425-432
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• 2002

This Paper illustrates a method for evaluating nodal probabilistic production cost using the CMELDC. A new method for constructing CMELDC(CoMposite Power System Equivalent Load Duration Curve) has been developed by authors. The CMELDC can be obtained by convolution integral processing between the probability distribution functions of the fictitious generators outage capacity and the load duration curves at each load point. In general, if complex operating conditions are involved and/or the number of severe events is relatively large, Monte Carlo methods are more efficient. Because of that reason, Monte Carlo Methods are applied for the construction of CMELDC in this study. And IEEE-RTS 24 buses model is used as our case study with satisfactory results.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.30-38
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• 1996

A two dimensional analysis program for groundwater flow in fractured network was developed to analyze the influence of discontinuity characteristics on groundwater flow. This program involves the generation of discontinuities and also connectivity analysis. The discontinuities were generated by the probabilistic density function(P.D.F.) reflecting the characteristics of discontinuities. And the fracture network model was completed through the connectivity analysis. This program also involves the analysis of groundwater flow through the discontinuity network. The result of numerical experiment shows that the equivalent hydraulic conductivity increased and became closer to isotropic as the density and trace length increased. And hydraulic head decreased along the fracture zone because of much water-flow. The grouting increased the groundwater head around cavern. An analysis of groundwater flow through discontinuity network was performed around underground oil storage cavern which is now under construction. The probabilistic density functions(P.D.F) were obtained from the investigation of the discontinuity trace map. When the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity is used, the flow rate into the cavern was below the acceptable value to maintain the hydraulic containment. But when the isotropic hydraulic conductivity is used, the flow rate was above the acceptable value.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.4
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• pp.505-514
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• 2015

This paper proposes a probabilistic generation assessment model of renewable energy generators(REGs) considering uncertainty of resources, mainly focused on Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) and Solar Cell Generator(SCG) which are dispersed widely in South Korea The proposed numerical analysis method assesses the one day-ahead generation by combining equivalent generation characteristics function and probabilistic distribution function of wind speed(WS) and solar radiation(SR) resources. The equivalent generation functions(EGFs) of the wind and solar farms are established by grouping a lot of the farms appropriately centered on Weather Measurement Station(WMS). First, the EGFs are assessed by using regression analysis method based on typical least square method from the recorded actual generation data and historical resources(WS and SR). Second, the generation of the REGs is assessed by adding the one day-ahead resources forecast, announced by WMS, to the EGFs which are formulated as third order degree polynomials using the regression analysis. Third, a Renewable Energy Generation Assessment System(REGAS) including D/B of recorded actual generation data and historical resources is developed using the model and algorithm predicting one day-ahead power output of renewable energy generators.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07a
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• pp.530-532
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• 2001

This paper illustrates a method for evaluating nodal probabilistic production cost using the CMELDC. A new method for constructing CMELDC(the equivalent load duration curves of composite power system) was developed by authors. The CMELDC can be obtained by convolution integral processing between the probability distribution functions of the fictitious generators outage capacity and the load duration curves at each load point. Monte Carlo Methods are applied for the construction of CMELDC on this study. And IEEE-RTS 24 buses model is used as our case study with satisfactory results.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.443-444
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• 2008

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.68 no.4
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• pp.423-442
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• 2018

In this paper, masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames are analyzed through a probabilistic approach. A macro-modeling technique, based on an equivalent diagonal pin-jointed strut, has been resorted to for modelling the stiffening contribution of the masonry panels. Since it is quite difficult to decide which mechanical characteristics to assume for the diagonal struts in such simplified model, the strut width is here considered as a random variable, whose stochastic characterization stems from a wide set of empirical expressions proposed in the literature. The stochastic analysis of the masonry infilled RC frame is conducted via the Probabilistic Transformation Method by employing a set of space transformation laws of random vectors to determine the probability density function (PDF) of the system response in a direct manner. The knowledge of the PDF of a set of response indicators, including displacements, bending moments, shear forces, interstory drifts, opens an interesting discussion about the influence of the uncertainty of the masonry infills and the resulting implications in a design process.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.1
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• pp.119-130
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• 2023

Among the various elements of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), human failure events (HFEs) and their dependencies are major contributors to the quantification of risk of a nuclear power plant. Currently, the dependency among HFEs is reflected using a post-processing method in PSA, wherein several drawbacks, such as limited propagation of minimal cutsets through the fault tree and improper truncation of minimal cutsets exist. In this paper, we propose a method to model the HFE dependency directly in a fault tree using the if-then-else logic. The proposed method proved to be equivalent to the conventional post-processing method while addressing the drawbacks of the latter. We also developed a software tool to facilitate the implementation of the proposed method considering the need for modeling the dependency between multiple HFEs. We applied the proposed method to a specific case to demonstrate the drawbacks of the conventional post-processing method and the advantages of the proposed method. When applied appropriately under specific conditions, the direct fault-tree modeling of HFE dependency enhances the accuracy of the risk quantification and facilitates the analysis of minimal cutsets.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.443-457
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• 2011

The loss of strength in a structure as a result of cyclic loads over a period of life time is an important phenomenon for the life-cycle analysis. Service loads are accentuated at the areas of stress concentration, mainly at the connection of components. Structural components unavoidably are affected by defects such as surface scratches, surface roughness and weld defects of random sizes, which usually occur during the manufacturing and handling process. These defects are shown to have an important effect on the fatigue life of the structural components by promoting crack initiation sites. The value of equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) is calculated by using the back extrapolation technique and the Paris law of fatigue crack growth from results of fatigue tests. We try to analyze the effect of EIFS distribution in a multiple site damage (MSD) specimen by using the extended finite element method (XFEM). For the analysis, fatigue tests were conducted on the centrally-cracked specimens and MSD specimens.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.849-865
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• 2016

Beside the invaluable advancements in constructing more secure buildings, the post-earthquake inspections have reported considerable damages. In other words, the modern buildings satisfactorily decrease fatalities but the monetary impacts still mostly remain an unsolved concern of the stakeholders, the insurance companies and society together. Therefore, the fundamental target of the researches shifted from current force-based seismic design regulations to the Performance-Based earthquake engineering (PBEE). At the moment, some probabilistic approaches, such as PEER framework have been developed to predict the performance of building at any desired hazard levels. These procedures are so time-consuming, to which many details are needed to be assigned. It causes their usage to be limited. On that account, developing more straightforward methods seems indispensable. The main objective of the present paper is to adapt an equivalent static method in different damage states. Consequently, constant damage spectrums corresponding to different limit states, soil types, ductility and fundamental periods are plotted and tri-linear formulas are proposed for further applications. Moreover, the sensitivity of outcomes to the employed hysteresis model, ductility, viscous damping and site soil type is investigated. Finally, a case study building with moment-resisting R.C. frame is evaluated based on the both of new and current methods to ensure applicability of the proposed method.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.7
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• pp.1129-1134
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• 2008

This paper proposes a reliability evaluation for interconnection planning using a tie line equivalent assisting generator model (TEAG) that considers the uncertainties of the interconnected transmission systems and the tie lines. Development of this model was triggered by the need to perform probabilistic reliability evaluations on the NEAREST (North East Asia Region Electric Systems Tied) interconnection. The TEAG is the basis for the newly developed interconnection systems reliability evaluation computer program, NEAREL. The model is capable of considering uncertainties associated with generators, tie lines, and the tied grids. Reliability evaluations for six interconnection scenarios involving the power systems of six countries in the Asian north eastern region were performed using NEAREL. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine reasonable tie line capacities for three interconnected country scenarios of the six countries. Test results and summarized comments of the scenarios are included in the paper.