• Title/Summary/Keyword: energy forecasting

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Dynamic model for on-line short-tern load forecasting (실시간 단기 부하예측을 위한 동적모험)

  • 박문희;조형기;정근모;최기련
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.387-393
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    • 1995
  • 본 연구에서는 단기 전력수요예측에 있어서 필요한 데이터의 수와 계산시간을 경감하면서 보다 정확성을 기할 수 있는 앨고리즘의 개발을 위하여 이에 적합한 칼만필터링 앨고리즘을 고찰하였다. 또한 칼만필터 앨고리즘을 토대로 필터의 모형화를 통하여 단기 전력수요를 예측할 수 있는 실시간 동적예측 모형을 구축하고 그 적용 가능성을 시험하였다.

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Forecasting the Diffusion Process and the Required Scale of R&D Investment of Renewable Energy in Korea Using the Comparative Analogy Method (비교유추법을 이용한 국내 신재생에너지 확산과정 및 필요 R&D 투자규모 예측)

  • Koo, Sanghoi;Lee, Deok Joo;Kim, Taegu
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.333-341
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to forecast the penetration rate of renewable energy and a reasonable scale for the R&D investment plan in Korea based on the relationship between the diffusion and R&D investments drawn by analogy from empirical cases of advanced countries. Among numerous candidate developed countries, the German market was chosen based on the similarity of the diffusion patterns to those of the Korean plan. We then figured out how the investment triggers the growth of technology from the selected benchmark, and applied the technology S-curve relation formula to derive the desirable investment plan for Korea. The present paper is a pioneering attempt to forecast the diffusion process of renewable energy technology in Korea using the comparative analogy from cases of advanced countries.

A Study on the Atmospheric Clearness Estimation of Major Cities in Korea Peninsula Using Empirical Forecasting Models (경험적 예측모형을 통한 한반도 주요 도시의 대기청명도 평가)

  • Jo, Dok-Ki;Kang, Young-Heack
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2008
  • Since the atmospheric clearness index is main factor for evaluating atmosphere environment, it is necessary to estimate its characteristics all over the major cities in Korea Peninsula. We have begun collecting clearness index data since 1982 at 16 different cities in South Korea and estimated using empirical forecasting models at 21 different stations over the North Korea from 1982 to 2006. This considerable effort has been made for constructing a standard value from measured data at each city. The new clearness data for global-dimming analysis will be extensively used by evaluating atmospheric environment as well as by solar PV application system designer or users. From the results, we can conclude that 1) Yearly mean 63.5 % of the atmospheric clearness index was evaluated for clear day all over the 37 cities in Korea Peninsula, 2) Clear day's atmospheric clearness index of spring and summer were 64.6 % and 64.8 %, and for fall and winter their values were 63.3 % and 61.3% respectively in Korea Peninsula.

Machine Learning-based hydrogen charging station energy demand prediction model (머신러닝 기반 수소 충전소 에너지 수요 예측 모델)

  • MinWoo Hwang;Yerim Ha;Sanguk Park
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2023
  • Hydrogen energy is an eco-friendly energy that produces heat and electricity with high energy efficiency and does not emit harmful substances such as greenhouse gases and fine dust. In particular, smart hydrogen energy is an economical, sustainable, and safe future smart hydrogen energy service, which means a service that stably operates based on 'data' by digitally integrating hydrogen energy infrastructure. In this paper, in order to implement a data-based hydrogen charging station demand forecasting model, three hydrogen charging stations (Chuncheon, Sokcho, Pyeongchang) installed in Gangwon-do were selected, supply and demand data of hydrogen charging stations were secured, and 7 machine learning and deep learning algorithms were used. was selected to learn a model with a total of 27 types of input data (weather data + demand for hydrogen charging stations), and the model was evaluated with root mean square error (RMSE). Through this, this paper proposes a machine learning-based hydrogen charging station energy demand prediction model for optimal hydrogen energy supply and demand.

A Study on the Comparison of Electricity Forecasting Models: Korea and China

  • Zheng, Xueyan;Kim, Sahm
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.675-683
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    • 2015
  • In the 21st century, we now face the serious problems of the enormous consumption of the energy resources. Depending on the power consumption increases, both China and South Korea face a reduction in available resources. This paper considers the regression models and time-series models to compare the performance of the forecasting accuracy based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in order to forecast the electricity demand accurately on the short-term period (68 months) data in Northeast China and find the relationship with Korea. Among the models the support vector regression (SVR) model shows superior performance than time-series models for the short-term period data and the time-series models show similar results with the SVR model when we use long-term period data.

Development of Korean Pig-housing Models for the Optimum Control of Environmental Systems - Farrow to Finish Operation - (최적 환경제어를 위한 한국형 돈사 모델 개발 - 일관경영 -)

  • 유재일;주정유;김성철;박종수;장동일;장홍희;임영일
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.113-126
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to develop pig-housings based on the forecasting models of swine production, the weather conditions, and so on in Korea. The Korean pig-housings were developed according to the following basis : 1. They should be suitable to domestic weather conditions. 2. They should be designed based on the forecasting models of swine production of farrow to finish operation among the forecasting models of swine production in Korea. 3. Proper environments should be offered to pigs according to the growth. 4. The environmental control, the treatment of swine wastewater, and so on should be interrelated. 5. Manual energy should be saved by effective arrangements of pig-housings. In the future, performance test of the Korean pig-housings and development of facility automation systems which are suitable to these should be accomplished.

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A Study on Estimation of Wind Power Generation using Weather Data in Jeju Island (기상관측자료를 이용한 제주도 풍력단지의 풍력발전량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Goo-Hyun;Kim, Ki-Su;Kim, Jae-Chul;Song, Kyung-Bin
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.12
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    • pp.2349-2353
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    • 2009
  • Due to high oil price and global warming of the earth, investments for renewable energy have been increased a lot continuously. Specially, wind power has been received a great attention in the world. In order to construct a new wind farm, forecasting of wind power generation is essential for a feasibility test. This paper investigates wind velocity measurement data of Gosan weather station which located in Hankyung of Jeju island. This paper presents results of estimation of wind power generation using digital weather forecast provided from Korea meteorological administration, and the accuracy of the wind power forecasting by comparison between forecasted data and actual wind power data.

Long-term Regional Electricity Demand Forecasting (지역별 장기 전력수요 예측)

  • Kwun, Young-Han;Rhee, Chang-Mo;Jo, In-Seung;Kim, Je-Gyun;Kim, Chang-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1990.07a
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    • pp.87-91
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    • 1990
  • Regional electricity demand forecasting is among the most important step for lone-term investment and power supply planning. This study presents a regional electricity forecasting model for Korean power system. The model consists of three submodels, regional economy, regional electricity energy demand, and regional peak load submodels. A case study is presented.

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The Development of an Aggregate Power Resource Configuration Model Based on the Renewable Energy Generation Forecasting System (재생에너지 발전량 예측제도 기반 집합전력자원 구성모델 개발)

  • Eunkyung Kang;Ha-Ryeom Jang;Seonuk Yang;Sung-Byung Yang
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.229-256
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    • 2023
  • The increase in telecommuting and household electricity demand due to the pandemic has led to significant changes in electricity demand patterns. This has led to difficulties in identifying KEPCO's PPA (power purchase agreements) and residential solar power generation and has added to the challenges of electricity demand forecasting and grid operation for power exchanges. Unlike other energy resources, electricity is difficult to store, so it is essential to maintain a balance between energy production and consumption. A shortage or overproduction of electricity can cause significant instability in the energy system, so it is necessary to manage the supply and demand of electricity effectively. Especially in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the importance of data has increased, and problems such as large-scale fires and power outages can have a severe impact. Therefore, in the field of electricity, it is crucial to accurately predict the amount of power generation, such as renewable energy, along with the exact demand for electricity, for proper power generation management, which helps to reduce unnecessary power production and efficiently utilize energy resources. In this study, we reviewed the renewable energy generation forecasting system, its objectives, and practical applications to construct optimal aggregated power resources using data from 169 power plants provided by the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy, developed an aggregation algorithm considering the settlement of the forecasting system, and applied it to the analytical logic to synthesize and interpret the results. This study developed an optimal aggregation algorithm and derived an aggregation configuration (Result_Number 546) that reached 80.66% of the maximum settlement amount and identified plants that increase the settlement amount (B1783, B1729, N6002, S5044, B1782, N6006) and plants that decrease the settlement amount (S5034, S5023, S5031) when aggregating plants. This study is significant as the first study to develop an optimal aggregation algorithm using aggregated power resources as a research unit, and we expect that the results of this study can be used to improve the stability of the power system and efficiently utilize energy resources.