• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.49-62
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• 2023

Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.12
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• pp.3740-3747
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• 2009

To protect the citizens' health of Gyeongju and to secure basic data for the assessment of health and environmental risk, distribution characteristics of meteorological elements were investigated and numerical simulation of wind field using RAMS model was carried out. In addition, measurement and analysis of air pollutants, forecasting the behavior air pollutants using ISC-AEROMOD view, and health and environmental risk-influenced zones were defined through managing air polluting materials to prevent health damage and property damage. According to the survey results of air pollution in Gyeongju and surroundings, average annual concentration of air pollutants in Gyeongju was slightly lower than that in Pohang and Ulsan areas, but concentration of particulate matters and nitrogen dioxide at Gyeongju Station Square and Yonggang Crossing were sometimes higher than that in Pohang and Ulsan areas. Results of the modeling of moving and diffusion of air pollutants that affect citizens' health showed that parts of the 1st through 4th industrial complexes together with POSCO were included in particulate matters and sulfur dioxide influenced areas in Pohang Steel Complex area, and that Haedo-dong, Sangdae-dong, Jecheol-dong and Jangheung-dong in Pohangnam-gu represented locally worsened air quality due to a quantity of air pollutant emission from dense steel industries and large scale industrial facilities.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.583-615
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• 2014

Including the rolling black out in 2011, Korea has suffered from rapid increase of electricity consumption and demand forecasting failure for last five years. In addition, because of the Fukushima disaster, high fuel prices, and introduction of new generation sources such as renewables, the uncertainty on a power supply strategy increases. Consequently, a stable power supply becomes the new agenda and a revisino of strategy for new power generation sources is needed. In the light of this, we appraises the sixth basic plan for long term electricity demand and supply considering the changes of foreign and domestic conditions. We also simulate a strategy for the new power generation sources using a portfolio analysis method. As results, a diversity of power generation sources will increase and the share of renewable power generation will be surged on the assumptions of a cost reduction of renewable power sources and an increase of fuel costs. Particularly, on the range of a risk level(standard deviation) from 0.06 and 0.09, the efficient frontier has the most various power sources. Besides, the existing power plan is not efficient so that an improvement is needed. Lastly, the development of an electricity storage system and energy management system is necessary to make a stable and efficient power supply condition.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.463-472
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• 2015

Solar radiation data are important data that can be used as basic research data in diverse areas. In particular, solar radiation data are essential for diverse studies that have been recently conducted in South Korea including those for new and renewable energy resource map making and crop yield forecasting. So purpose of this study is modification of Heliosat-II method to estimate solar irradiance in Korea by using COMS-MI imagery. For this purpose, in this study, errors appearing in ground albedo images were corrected through linear transformation. And method of producing background albedo map which is used in Heliosat-II method is modified to get more finely tuned one. Through the study, ground albedo correction could be successfully performed and background albedo maps could be successfully derived. Lastly, In this study, solar irradiance was estimated by using modified Heliostat-II method. And it was compared with actually measured values to verify the accuracy of the methods. Accuracy of estimated solar irradiance was 30.8% RMSE(%). And this accuracy level means that solar irradiance was estimated on 10% higher level than previous Heliosat-II method.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.6602-6609
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• 2013

This study is expected to provide background data for establishing mitigation measures for malodor and for comparing complex odor criteria. The impact of malodor at the afflicted locations was analyzed using Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3 (ISCST3) model, which was recommended by the EPA. The Odor Emission Rates (ODR) for piglets and hogs were predicted based on the average, minimum, and maximum emission rates as classification. The forecasting result of the complex odor modelling of pigsty showed that tolerance limit was exceeded at an adjacent administration building, but tolerance limit was not surpassed at an afflicted location which was within 185m from the pigsty. The ISCST3 modelling of the satisfactory ODR for tolerance limit was accomplished at the administration building. From the prediction of this modelling, maximum emission rates based on 1hr at administration building were 10.59~52.93, 19.05~31.76, and 10.59 $OU/m^3/s/m^2$ at emission rates of 50%, 30%, and 10%. This emission rate was slightly higher than the tolerance limit of 10.00 $OU/m^3/s/m^2$. However, it was inferred that the tolerance limit could be satisfied if the emission rate of 10% was controlled.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.205-240
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• 1992

In reality, it is a green revolution of the entire agricultural matrix in Korea that integrated pest control plays an important role in the possible breakthrough in rice self-sufficiency. In paddy agroecosystem as man-modified environment, rice is newly established every year by transplantation under diverse water regimes which affect a microclimate. Standing water benefits rice by regulating the microclimate, but it favors the multiplication of certain pets through the amelioration of the microclimate. Further, the introduction of high yielding varieties with the changing of cultural practices results in changing occurrence pattern of certain pests. In general, japonica type varieties lack genes resistant to most of the important pests and insect-borne virus diseases, whereas indica type possesses more genes conferring varietal resistance. Thus, this differences among indica type, form the background of different approaches to pest management. The changes in rice cultivation such as double cropping, growing high-yielding varieties requiring heavy fertilization, earlier transplanting, intensvie-spacing transplanting, and intensive pesticide use as a consequence of the adoption of improves rice production technology, have intensified the pest problems rather than reduced them. The cultivation of resistant varieties are highly effective to the pest, their long term stability is threathened because of the development of new biotypes which can detroy these varieties. So far, three biotypes of N. lugens are reported in Korea. Since each resistant variety is expected to maintain several years the sequential release of another new variety with a different gene at intervals is practised as a gene rotation program. Another approach, breeding multilines that have more than two genes for resistance in a variety are successfully demonstrated. The average annual rice losses during the last 15 years of 1977-’91 are 9.3% due to insect pests without chemical control undertaken, wehreas there is a average 2.4% despite farmers’insecticide application at the same period. In other words, the average annual losses are prvented by 6.9% when chemical control is properly employed. However, the continuous use of a same group of insecticides is followed by the development of pest resistance. Resistant development of C. suppressalis, L. striatellus and N. cincticeps is observed to organophosphorous insecticides by the mid-1960s, and to carbamates by the early 1970s in various parts of the country. Thus, it is apparent that a scheduled chemical control for rice production systems becomes uneconomical and that a reduction in energy input without impairing the rice yield, is necessarily improved through the implementation of integrated pest management systems. Nationwide pest forecasting system conducted by the government organization is a unique network of investigation for purpose of making pest control timely in terms of economic thresholds. A wise plant protection is expected to establish pest management systems in appropriate integration of resistant varieties, biological agents, cultural practices and other measures in harmony with minimizing use of chemical applications as a last weapon relying on economic thresholds.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.822-828
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• 2018

Recently, energy issues such as massive blackout due to increase in power consumption have been emerged, and it is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction of power consumption as a solution for these problems. In this study, we investigate the difference between the actual power consumption and the predicted power consumption through the deep learning- based power consumption forecasting experiment, and the possibility of adjusting the power reserve ratio. In this paper, the prediction of the power consumption based on the deep learning can be used as a basis to reduce the power reserve ratio so as not to excessively produce extra power. The deep learning method used in this paper uses a learning model of long-short-term-memory (LSTM) structure that processes time series data. In the computer simulation, the generated power consumption data was learned, and the power consumption was predicted based on the learned model. We calculate the error between the actual and predicted power consumption amount, resulting in an error rate of 21.37%. Considering the recent power reserve ratio of 45.9%, it is possible to reduce the reserve ratio by 20% when applying the power consumption prediction algorithm proposed in this study.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.23-30
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• 2012

In the state that re-evaluation of calculating optimum amount of incineration in the future is needed, as considering the amount of waste, increase of heat value and change in floating population in each area in city B, the purpose of this research was to predict optimum available capacity in incineration plant and to study alternatives for the amount of disposal in each incineration plant based on the available capacity that was predicted. As a result of predicting the change in population based on progress of population in city B in the past, it is expected that an overall population is decreasing, but in some areas, population is concentrated due to increased apartment complexes, showing similar figures as the present. Moreover, when predicting the amount of waste through forecasting population, it is considered that the amount of waste by decreased population is also decreasing. However, the amount of combustible component among a total amount of waste is expected to increase, so it is predicted that the amount of incineration and combustible component will be reasonable except D incineration plant, Therefore, D incinerating plant showed 72.7% of rate of utilization of incineration facility compared to 59.1% of national rate. However, if shortfall of waste in the future can be used wisely in other areas, the use of renewable energy using burner useless heat can be maximized.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.81-95
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• 2014

In the present study, the statistical analysis on the storm waves in the East Sea have been carried out, and the several storm waves were reproduced by the modified WAM as a first step for the accurate and prompt forecasting and warning against the swell waves in East Sea. According to the present study, the occurrences of the storm waves from the North were the most probable, while the waves from the Northeast were most frequently observed. It was found that the significant wave heights of storm waves from the North and Northern northeast were larger than those of storm waves from the Northeast. But due to long fetch distance, the significant wave periods of storm waves from the Northesast were longer than those of North and Northern northeast. In addition to the wave analysis, the numerical experiments for the storm waves in East Sea were carried out using the modified WAM, and three periods of storm waves in 2013 were calculated. The numerical results were well agreed with wave measurements. However the numerical simulation results in shallow water region showed lower accuracies compared to deep water, which might be due to lower resolution of wind field and bottom topography caused by large grid size, 5 minute, adopted in the present study. Overall computational efficiency of the modified WAM found to be excellent compared to original WAM. It is because the modified WAM adopted the implicit scheme, thereby the present model performed 10 time faster than original WAM in computation time.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.9-21
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• 2020

The proper operation and safety management of water and wastewater treatment systems are essential for providing stable water service to the public. However, various natural disasters including floods, large storms, volcano eruptions and earthquakes threaten public water services by causing serious damage to water and wastewater treatment plants and pipeline systems. Korea is known as a country that is relatively safe from earthquakes, but the recent increase in the frequency of earthquakes has increased the need for a proper earthquake management system. Interest in research and the establishment of legal regulations has increased, especially since the large earthquake in Gyeongju in 2016. Currently, earthquakes in Korea are managed by legal regulations and guidelines integrated with other disasters such as floods and large storms. The legal system has long been controlled and relatively well managed, but technical research has made limited progress since it was considered in the past that Korea is safe from earthquake damage. Various technologies, including seismic design and earthquake forecasting, are required to minimize possible damages from earthquakes, so proper research is essential. This paper reviews the current state of technology development and legal management systems to prevent damages and restore water and wastewater treatment systems after earthquakes in Korea and other countries. High technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles, wireless networks and real-time monitoring systems are already being applied to water and wastewater treatment processes, and to further establish the optimal system for earthquake response in water and wastewater treatment facilities, continuous research in connection with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, including information and communications technologies, is essential.