• Title/Summary/Keyword: energy forecasting

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Building Energy Management System with Next Day Demand Forecasting of Building Load (익일 빌딩 부하 예측 기능을 갖는 빌딩에너지관리시스템)

  • Choi, Sang-Yule
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.119-123
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    • 2014
  • The main purpose of reactive power compensation monitoring system is to manage factory electrical installation efficiently by On-Off switching reactive power compensation equipment. The existing reactive power compensation monitoring system is only able to be managed by operator whenever electrical installation needed reactive power. Therefore, it may be possible for propagating the installation's faults when operator make the unexpected mistakes. To overcome the unexpected mistakes, in this paper, the author presents a reactive power compensation monitoring system for factory electrical installation using active database. by using active database production rule, stated system can minimize unexpected mistake and can operate centralized monitoring system efficiently. Test results on the five factory electrical installations show that performance is efficient and robust.

Distribution of Relative Evapotranspiration Availability using Satellite Data in Daegu Metropolitan (위성 자료를 이용한 대구광역시의 상대적 증발산 효율 분포)

  • Kim, Hae-Dong;Im, Jin-Wook;Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.677-686
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    • 2006
  • Surface evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors to determine the surface energy budget, and its estimation is strongly related with the accuracy of weather forecasting. Surface evapotranspiration over Daegu Metropolitan was estimated using high resolution LANDSAT TM data. The estimation of surface evapotranspiration is based on the relationship between surface radiative temperature and vegetation index provided by a TM sensor. The distribution of NDVI (Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index) corresponds well with that of land-used in Deagu Metropolitan. The temperature of several part of downtown in Deagu metropolitan is lower in comparison with the averaged radiative temperature. This is caused by the high evapotranspiration from dense vegetation like DooRyu Park in Deagu Metropolitan. But, weak evapotranspiration availability is distinguished over the central part of downtown and the difference of evapotranspiration availability on industrial complexes and residential area is also clear.

The Analysis of Terrain Height Variance Spectra over the Korean Mountain Region and Its Impact on Mesoscale Model Simulation (한반도 산악 지역의 지형분산 스펙트럼과 중규모 수치모의에서의 효과 분석)

  • An, Gwang-Deuk;Lee, Yong-Hui;Jang, Dong-Eon;Jo, Cheon-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.359-370
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    • 2006
  • Terrain height variance spectra for the Korean mountain region are calculated in order to determine an adequate grid size required to resolve terrain forcing on mesoscale model simulation. One-dimensional spectral analysis is applied to specifically the central-eastern part of the Korean mountain region, where topographical-scale forcing has an important effect on mesoscale atmospheric flow. It is found that the terrain height variance spectra in this mountain region has a wavelength dependence with the power law exponents of 1.5 at the wavelength near 30 km, but this dependence is steeply changed to 2.5 at the wavelength less than 30 km. For the adequate horizontal grid size selection on mesoscale simulation two-dimensional terrain height spectral analysis is also performed. There is no directionality within 50% of spectral energy region, so one-dimensional spectral analysis can be reasonably applied to the Korea Peninsula. According to the spectral analysis of terrain height variance, the finer grid size which is higher than 6 km is required to resolve a 90% of terrain variance in this region. Numerical simulation using WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) was performed to evaluate the effect of different terrain resolution in accordance with the result of spectral analysis. The simulated results were quantitatively compared to observations and there was a significant improvement in the wind prediction across the mountain region as the grid space decreased from 18 km to 2 km. The results will provide useful guidance of grid size selection on mesoscale topographical simulation over the Korean mountain region.

Compressive strength prediction of CFRP confined concrete using data mining techniques

  • Camoes, Aires;Martins, Francisco F.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.233-241
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    • 2017
  • During the last two decades, CFRP have been extensively used for repair and rehabilitation of existing structures as well as in new construction applications. For rehabilitation purposes CFRP are currently used to increase the load and the energy absorption capacities and also the shear strength of concrete columns. Thus, the effect of CFRP confinement on the strength and deformation capacity of concrete columns has been extensively studied. However, the majority of such studies consider empirical relationships based on correlation analysis due to the fact that until today there is no general law describing such a hugely complex phenomenon. Moreover, these studies have been focused on the performance of circular cross section columns and the data available for square or rectangular cross sections are still scarce. Therefore, the existing relationships may not be sufficiently accurate to provide satisfactory results. That is why intelligent models with the ability to learn from examples can and must be tested, trying to evaluate their accuracy for composite compressive strength prediction. In this study the forecasting of wrapped CFRP confined concrete strength was carried out using different Data Mining techniques to predict CFRP confined concrete compressive strength taking into account the specimens' cross section: circular or rectangular. Based on the results obtained, CFRP confined concrete compressive strength can be accurately predicted for circular cross sections using SVM with five and six input parameters without spending too much time. The results for rectangular sections were not as good as those obtained for circular sections. It seems that the prediction can only be obtained with reasonable accuracy for certain values of the lateral confinement coefficient due to less efficiency of lateral confinement for rectangular cross sections.

Nonlinear impact of temperature change on electricity demand: estimation and prediction using partial linear model (기온변화가 전력수요에 미치는 비선형적 영향: 부분선형모형을 이용한 추정과 예측)

  • Park, Jiwon;Seo, Byeongseon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.703-720
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    • 2019
  • The influence of temperature on electricity demand is increasing due to extreme weather and climate change, and the climate impacts involves nonlinearity, asymmetry and complexity. Considering changes in government energy policy and the development of the fourth industrial revolution, it is important to assess the climate effect more accurately for stable management of electricity supply and demand. This study aims to analyze the effect of temperature change on electricity demand using the partial linear model. The main results obtained using the time-unit high frequency data for meteorological variables and electricity consumption are as follows. Estimation results show that the relationship between temperature change and electricity demand involves complexity, nonlinearity and asymmetry, which reflects the nonlinear effect of extreme weather. The prediction accuracy of in-sample and out-of-sample electricity forecasting using the partial linear model evidences better predictive accuracy than the conventional model based on the heating and cooling degree days. Diebold-Mariano test confirms significance of the predictive accuracy of the partial linear model.

Modelling Study on Sustainable Resources Management System Using Material Flow Analysis(MFA) in Korea (물질흐름분석을 이용한 국내 지속가능한 자원관리 시스템 모형 연구)

  • Kim, Yu-Jeong;Kim, Seong-Yong;Heo, Eun-Nyeong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.253-265
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    • 2008
  • Sustainable resource management(SRM) is regarded as the core strategy to achieve Dematerialisation and Decoupling of economic growth from the use of natural resources and environmental degradation. This paper presents status SRM policy and research in worldwide, and analyzes decoupling of economic activity from energy consumption of domestic manufacturing, using decoupling factor. Also This paper suggests methodologies and strategies of SRM in Korea. SRM is established through various analysis and survey as following; forecasting of resource demand, material flow analysis and value chain analysis, resource market structure analysis. Through these analysis, we can obtain hot-spot and solution of environmental burden, recycling market management, recycling technology and best-optimal supply rate of primary and secondary resource. In Korea, resource management system must be linked with national and regional material flow analysis, and it is necessary to make SRM-law of national dimension for effective run of sustainable resource management system.

Comparative Study to Predict Power Generation using Meteorological Information for Expansion of Photovoltaic Power Generation System for Railway Infrastructure (철도인프라용 태양광발전시스템 확대를 위한 기상정보 활용 발전량 예측 비교 연구)

  • Yoo, Bok-Jong;Park, Chan-Bae;Lee, Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.474-481
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    • 2017
  • When designing photovoltaic power plants in Korea, the prediction of photovoltaic power generation at the design phase is carried out using PVSyst, PVWatts (Overseas power generation prediction software), and overseas weather data even if the test site is a domestic site. In this paper, for a comparative study to predict power generation using weather information, domestic photovoltaic power plants in two regions were selected as target sites. PVsyst, which is a commercial power generation forecasting program, was used to compare the accuracy between the predicted value of power generation (obtained using overseas weather information (Meteonorm 7.1, NASA-SSE)) and the predicted value of power generation obtained by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). In addition, we have studied ways to improve the prediction of power generation through comparative analysis of meteorological data. Finally, we proposed a revised solar power generation prediction model that considers climatic factors by considering the actual generation amount.

자기폭풍예보모델을 이용한 우주환경예보

  • 안병호
    • Information and Communications Magazine
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 1998
  • It is crucial to predict the variabilities of the near-earth space environment associated with the solar activity, which cause enormous socio-economic impacts on mankind. The geomagnetic storm prediction scheme adopted in this study is designed to predict such variabilities in terms of the geomagnetic indices, AE and Dst, the cross-polar cap potential difference, the energy dissipation rate over the polar ionosphere and associated temperature increase in the thermosphere. The prediction code consists of two parts; prediction of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field based upon actual flare observations and estimation of various electrodynamic quantities mentioned above from the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function 'epsilon' which is derivable through the predicted solar wind parameters. As a test run, the magnetic storm that occurred in early November, 1993, is simulated and the results are compared with the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field measured by the Japanese satellite, Geotail, and the geomagnetic indices obtained from ground magnetic observatories. Although numerous aspects of the code are to be further improved, the comparison between the simulated results and the actual measurements encourages us to use this prediction scheme as the first appoximation in forecasting the disturbances of the near-earth space environment associated with solar flares.

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Design of short-term forecasting model of distributed generation power for wind power (풍력 발전을 위한 분산형 전원전력의 단기예측 모델 설계)

  • Song, Jae-Ju;Jeong, Yoon-Su;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.211-218
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    • 2014
  • Recently, wind energy is expanding to combination of computing to forecast of wind power generation as well as intelligent of wind powerturbine. Wind power is rise and fall depending on weather conditions and difficult to predict the output for efficient power production. Wind power is need to reliably linked technology in order to efficient power generation. In this paper, distributed power generation forecasts to enhance the predicted and actual power generation in order to minimize the difference between the power of distributed power short-term prediction model is designed. The proposed model for prediction of short-term combining the physical models and statistical models were produced in a physical model of the predicted value predicted by the lattice points within the branch prediction to extract the value of a physical model by applying the estimated value of a statistical model for estimating power generation final gas phase produces a predicted value. Also, the proposed model in real-time National Weather Service forecast for medium-term and real-time observations used as input data to perform the short-term prediction models.

A Study on the Estimation Method of Daily Load Curve for the Optimization Design and Economic Evaluation of Stand-alone Microgrids Based on HOMER Simulation in Off-Grid Limiting the Supply of Electricity (제한급전하는 오프그리드의 독립형 마이크로그리드 최적 설계 및 경제성 평가를 위한 일부하곡선 추정 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Yong-Hyun;Youn, Seok-Min;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Hwang, Sung-Wook
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.68 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2019
  • There is a growing interest in various microgrid solutions that supply electricity 24 hours a day to off-grid areas where are not connected with the main grid, and Korea has many positive effects by constructing overseas microgrids as a country operating the emission trading scheme. Since it is not clear how to obtain load curves that is one of the inputs of the HOMER used to design a microgrid optimization plan, or it is necessary to examine whether electricity is supplied to the peak load level of the areas where have not received the electricity benefits from the viewpoint of the demand management, a methodology should be developed to know the load composition ratio and the shape of the daily load curve. In this paper, the relative coefficient and average load information for each load group obtained from the survey are used besides peak load and total average load. A mathematical model is proposed to derive the load composition ratio in the form of a Quadratic Programming and the load forecasting is performed using simple linear regression with future indicators. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed for the Philippine island region supported by Korea Energy Agency and the Asian Development Bank.