• Title/Summary/Keyword: energy forecasting

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A Study on Forecasting of the Manpower Demand for the Eco-friendly Smart Shipbuilding (친환경 스마트 선박 인력 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sang-Hoon;Shin, Yong-John
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2023
  • This study forecasted the manpower demand of eco-friendly smart shipbuilding, whose importance and weight are increasing according to the environmental regulations of the IMO and the spread of the 4th industrial revolution technology. It predicted the shipbuilding industry manpower by applying various models of trend analysis and time series analysis based on data from 2000 to 2020 of Statistics Korea. It was found that the prediction applying geometric mean had the smallest gap among the trend and time series analysis methods in comparing between forecast results and actual data for the past 5 years. Therefore, the demand for manpower in the shipbuilding industry was predicted by using the geometric mean method. In addition, the manpower demand of smart eco-friendly ships wast forecasted by using the 2018 and 2020 manpower survey results of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and reflecting the trend of manpower increase in the shipbuilding industry. The result of forecasting showed that 62,001 person in 2025 and 85,035 people in 2030. This study is expected to contribute to the adjustment of manpower supply and demand and the training professional manpower in the future by increasing the accuracy of forecasting for high value-added eco-friendly smart ships.

Topic Model Analysis of Research Trend on Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 동향 파악을 위한 토픽 모형 분석)

  • Shin, KyuSik;Choi, HoeRyeon;Lee, HongChul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.6411-6418
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    • 2015
  • To respond the climate change and environmental pollution, the studies on renewable energy policies are increasing. The renewable energy is a new growth engine technology represented by the green industry and green technology. At present, the investments for the renewable energy supply and technology development projects of three main strategy sectors such as sunlight, wind power and hydrogen fuel cell are implemented in our country, while they are still in the early stage, accordingly reducing those uncertainty for the research direction and investment fields is the most urgent issue among others. Thus, this study applied text mining method and multinominal topic model among the big data analysis methods on our country's newspaper articles concerning the renewable energy over the last 10 years, and then analyzed the core issues and global research trend, forecasting the renewable energy fields with the growth potential. It is predicted that these results of the study based on information and communication technology will be actively applied on the renewable energy fields.

A Study on the Atmospheric Environment of Major Cities Using Clearness Index Analysis in Korea Peninsula (청명도 분석에 의한 한반도 주요 도시의 대기환경 평가)

  • Jo, Dok-Ki;Kang, Young-Heack
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.314-317
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    • 2008
  • Since the atmospheric clearness index is main factor for evaluating atmosphere environment, it is necessary to estimate its characteristics all over the major cities in Korea Peninsula. We have begun collecting clearness index data since 1982 at 16 different cities in South Korea and estimated using empirical forecasting models at 21 different stations over the North Korea from 1982 to 2006. This considerable effort has been made for constructing a standard value from measured data at each city. The new clearness data for global-dimming analysis will be extensively used by evaluating atmospheric environment as well as by solar PV application system designer or users. From the results, we can conclude that 1) Yearly mean 63.5% of the atmospheric clearness index was evaluated for clear day all over the 37 cities in Korea Peninsula, 2) Clear day's atmospheric clearness index of spring and summer were 64.6% ana 64.8%, and for fall and winter their values were 63.3% and 61.3% respectively in Korea Peninsula.

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Adjustment of load correlation coefficient for advanced load management (부하관리 개선을 위한 부하 상관계수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chang-Ho;Cho, Seong-Soo;Kim, Gi-Hyun;Im, Jin-Soon;Kim, Du-Bong;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07c
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    • pp.1267-1269
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    • 1999
  • This paper studies on arrangement of load correlation coefficient for advanced load management. To accurate load correlation coefficient, we used two real factors, electrical energy(kWh) and peak load current of pole transformers, acquired by measuring instrument. Out of several correlation equations, we find that the quadratic equation is the most accurate to express peak load current and working electrical energy. If the data is located in the outside of ${\pm}3{\sigma}$ it is discarded. For load management, we rearranged load correlation coefficient considering +2${\sigma}$ at load correlation equation. Comparing conventional load correlation coefficient with rearranged one, we can get the result of error reduced and it is adjacent to the actual data. It will be used peak load forecasting from working electrical energy and we are able to prevent from the damaging of pole transformer due to overload.

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A Study on the Market Analysis & Demand Forecasting of $CO_2$ Reduction and Sequestration Technologies (온실가스 저감 및 처리기술의 시장 분석 및 수요예측 연구)

  • Lee Deok-Ki;Choi Sang-Jin;Park Soo-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.217-233
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    • 2005
  • As the Kyoto Protocol will come into effect starting February 2005, 55 member countries of the Conference of Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) will be under obligation to reduce the emissions of Carbon Dioxide $(CO_2)$ by 5.2 Percent from the 1990 levels before the year 2012. Hence the development of technology to prepare for this has been accelerated in Korea. The effect of technology varies with market size of technology, and it is necessary to control technology development period, according to the size and trend of technology market. Moreover it is essential that market analysis be finished before technology development, because market on the $(CO_2)$ Reduction and Sequestration Technology expands internationally. For that reason, it is needed to analyze domestic market and to consider technology development strategy according to analysis results. In this paper, we analyzed the domestic industry and forecasted the market size, both related to the Reduction and Sequestration Technology on $(CO_2)$ emission, which is the major component of global Green House Gas(GHG).

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Development of Daily Operation Program of Battery Energy Storage System for Peak Shaving of High-Speed Railway Substations (고속철도 변전소 피크부하 저감용 ESS 일간 운전 프로그램 개발)

  • Byeon, Gilsung;Kim, Jong-Yul;Kim, Seul-Ki;Cho, Kyeong-Hee;Lee, Byung-Gon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.3
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    • pp.404-410
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    • 2016
  • This paper proposed a program of an energy storage system(ESS) for peak shaving of high-speed railway substations The peak shaving saves cost of equipment and demand cost of the substation. To reduce the peak load, it is very important to know when the peak load appears. The past data based load profile forecasting method is easy and applicable to customers which have relatively fixed load profiles. And an optimal scheduling method of the ESS is helpful in reducing the electricity tariff and shaving the peak load efficiently. Based on these techniques, MS. NET based peak shaving program is developed. In case study, a specific daily load profile of the local substation was applied and simulated to verify performance of the proposed program.

Development of Weather Forecast Models for a Short-term Building Load Prediction (건물의 단기부하 예측을 위한 기상예측 모델 개발)

  • Jeon, Byung-Ki;Lee, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Eui-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2018
  • In this work, we propose weather prediction models to estimate hourly outdoor temperatures and solar irradiance in the next day using forecasting information. Hourly weather data predicted by the proposed models are useful for setting system operating strategies for the next day. The outside temperature prediction model considers 3-hourly temperatures forecasted by Korea Meteorological Administration. Hourly data are obtained by a simple interpolation scheme. The solar irradiance prediction is achieved by constructing a dataset with the observed cloudiness and correspondent solar irradiance during the last two weeks and then by matching the forecasted cloud factor for the next day with the solar irradiance values in the dataset. To verify the usefulness of the weather prediction models in predicting a short-term building load, the predicted data are inputted to a TRNSYS building model, and results are compared with a reference case. Results show that the test case can meet the acceptance error level defined by the ASHRAE guideline showing 8.8% in CVRMSE in spite of some inaccurate predictions for hourly weather data.

The Development of Production Simulation Methodology by Optimization Technique and It's Application to Utility Expansion Planning (최적화 기법에 의한 발전시뮬레이션 방법론의 개발 및 전원확충계획 문제에의 적용)

  • Song, K.Y.;Oh, K.H.;Kim, Y.H.;Cha, J.M.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1996.07b
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    • pp.793-796
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    • 1996
  • This study proposes a new algorithm which performs a production simulation under various constraints and maintains computational efficiency. In order to consider the environmental and operational constraints, the proposed algorithm is based on optimization techniques formulated in LP form In the algorithm, "system characteristic constraints" reflect the system characteristics such as LDC shape, unit loading order and forced outage rate. By using the concept of Energy Invariance Property and two operational rules i.e. Compliance Rule for Emission Constraint, Compliance Rule for Limited Energy of Individual Unit, the number of system characteristic constraints is appreciably reduced. As a solution method of the optimization problem, the author uses Karmarkar's method which performs effectively in solving large scale LP problem. The efficiency of production simulation is meaningful when it is effectively used in power system planning. With the proposed production simulation algorithm, an optimal expansion planning model which can cope with operational constraints, environmental restriction, and various uncertainties is developed. This expansion planning model is applied to the long range planning schemes by WASP, and determines an optimal expansion scheme which considers the effect of supply interruption, load forecasting errors, multistates of unit operation, plural limited energy plants etc.

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Forecasting Methane Gas Concentration of LFG Power Plant Using Deep Learning (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 매립가스 발전소 포집공의 메탄가스 농도 예측)

  • Won, Seung-hyun;Seo, Dae-ho;Park, Dae-won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.649-659
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    • 2018
  • In this study, after operational data for a landfill gas power plant were collected, the methane gas concentration was predicted using a deep learning method. Concentrations of methane gas, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, oxygen concentration, as well as data related to the valve opening degree, air temperature and humidity were collected from 23 pipeline bases for 88 matches from January to November 2017. After the deep learning model learned the collected data, methane gas concentration was estimated by applying other data. Our study yielded extremely accurate estimation results for all of the 23 pipeline bases.

Energy Forecasting Information System of Optimal Electricity Generation using Fuzzy-based RERNN with GPC

  • Elumalaivasan Poongavanam;Padmanathan Kasinathan;Karunanithi Kandasamy;S. P. Raja
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.2701-2717
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, a hybrid fuzzy-based method is suggested for determining India's best system for power generation. This suggested approach was created using a fuzzy-based combination of the Giza Pyramids Construction (GPC) and Recalling-Enhanced Recurrent Neural Network (RERNN). GPC is a meta-heuristic algorithm that deals with solutions for many groups of problems, whereas RERNN has selective memory properties. The evaluation of the current load requirements and production profile information system is the main objective of the suggested method. The Central Electricity Authority database, the Indian National Load Dispatch Centre, regional load dispatching centers, and annual reports of India were some of the sources used to compile the data regarding profiles of electricity loads, capacity factors, power plant generation, and transmission limits. The RERNN approach makes advantage of the ability to analyze the ideal power generation from energy data, however the optimization of RERNN factor necessitates the employment of a GPC technique. The proposed method was tested using MATLAB, and the findings indicate that it is effective in terms of accuracy, feasibility, and computing efficiency. The suggested hybrid system outperformed conventional models, achieving the top result of 93% accuracy with a shorter computation time of 6814 seconds.