• Title/Summary/Keyword: empirical models

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A Comparison of the Goodness-of-Fit between Two Models of Expenditure Function: a Single-Equation Model versus a Complete- System-of-Demand-Equation Model (단일방정식과 관련방정식체계를 적용한 소비지출 함수의 모델 적합성 비교)

  • 황덕순;김숙향
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2002
  • The main purposes of this article are to introduce the theoretical backgrounds and empirical application methods of two different Models for the function of expenditure, and to compare the goodness-o(-fit of the two models: a single-equation model and a complete-system-of-demand-equation model. For the empirical analysis of the single-equation model, a linear formula and a double-leg formula were employed. In order to test the complete-system-of-demand-equation model empirically, the \"Linear Approximation/Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS)" was used. The independent variables were the total living expense and expenditure categories Price index. The data used in this study were obtained from the quarterly statistics of "The Annual Report on the Urban Family Income and Expenditure Survey (Dosigagyeyonbo)" and "The Annual Report on the Consumer Price Index (Sobijamulgajaryo)," for the years 1994 to 1997. The goodness-of-fit (R-square) was higher with the complete-system-of-demand-equation model than with the single-equation model for the budget share on food (excluding eating-out expenses) and for the share on cultural and recreational activities. However, there was no difference between the two models in terms of the proportion of the expenditure on automobile fuel.fuel.

Supremacy of Realized Variance MIDAS Regression in Volatility Forecasting of Mutual Funds: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia

  • WAN, Cheong Kin;CHOO, Wei Chong;HO, Jen Sim;ZHANG, Yuruixian
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2022
  • Combining the strength of both Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) Regression and realized variance measures, this paper seeks to investigate two objectives: (1) evaluate the post-sample performance of the proposed weekly Realized Variance-MIDAS (RVar-MIDAS) in one-week ahead volatility forecasting against the established Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the less explored but robust STES (Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing) methods. (2) comparing forecast error performance between realized variance and squared residuals measures as a proxy for actual volatility. Data of seven private equity mutual fund indices (generated from 57 individual funds) from two different time periods (with and without financial crisis) are applied to 21 models. Robustness of the post-sample volatility forecasting of all models is validated by the Model Confidence Set (MCS) Procedures and revealed: (1) The weekly RVar-MIDAS model emerged as the best model, outperformed the robust DAILY-STES methods, and the weekly DAILY-GARCH models, particularly during a volatile period. (2) models with realized variance measured in estimation and as a proxy for actual volatility outperformed those using squared residual. This study contributes an empirical approach to one-week ahead volatility forecasting of mutual funds return, which is less explored in past literature on financial volatility forecasting compared to stocks volatility.

Impacts of label quality on performance of steel fatigue crack recognition using deep learning-based image segmentation

  • Hsu, Shun-Hsiang;Chang, Ting-Wei;Chang, Chia-Ming
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.207-220
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    • 2022
  • Structural health monitoring (SHM) plays a vital role in the maintenance and operation of constructions. In recent years, autonomous inspection has received considerable attention because conventional monitoring methods are inefficient and expensive to some extent. To develop autonomous inspection, a potential approach of crack identification is needed to locate defects. Therefore, this study exploits two deep learning-based segmentation models, DeepLabv3+ and Mask R-CNN, for crack segmentation because these two segmentation models can outperform other similar models on public datasets. Additionally, impacts of label quality on model performance are explored to obtain an empirical guideline on the preparation of image datasets. The influence of image cropping and label refining are also investigated, and different strategies are applied to the dataset, resulting in six alternated datasets. By conducting experiments with these datasets, the highest mean Intersection-over-Union (mIoU), 75%, is achieved by Mask R-CNN. The rise in the percentage of annotations by image cropping improves model performance while the label refining has opposite effects on the two models. As the label refining results in fewer error annotations of cracks, this modification enhances the performance of DeepLabv3+. Instead, the performance of Mask R-CNN decreases because fragmented annotations may mistake an instance as multiple instances. To sum up, both DeepLabv3+ and Mask R-CNN are capable of crack identification, and an empirical guideline on the data preparation is presented to strengthen identification successfulness via image cropping and label refining.

A new empirical formula for prediction of the axial compression capacity of CCFT columns

  • Tran, Viet-Linh;Thai, Duc-Kien;Kim, Seung-Eock
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.181-194
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents an efficient approach to generate a new empirical formula to predict the axial compression capacity (ACC) of circular concrete-filled tube (CCFT) columns using the artificial neural network (ANN). A total of 258 test results extracted from the literature were used to develop the ANN models. The ANN model having the highest correlation coefficient (R) and the lowest mean square error (MSE) was determined as the best model. Stability analysis, sensitivity analysis, and a parametric study were carried out to estimate the stability of the ANN model and to investigate the main contributing factors on the ACC of CCFT columns. Stability analysis revealed that the ANN model was more stable than several existing formulae. Whereas, the sensitivity analysis and parametric study showed that the outer diameter of the steel tube was the most sensitive parameter. Additionally, using the validated ANN model, a new empirical formula was derived for predicting the ACC of CCFT columns. Obviously, a higher accuracy of the proposed empirical formula was achieved compared to the existing formulae.

통신 서비스 확산모형

  • Sin, Chang-Hun;Park, Seok-Ji
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 1988
  • This study suggests the diffusion models to predict the spread pattern of telecommunications services. The extended models containing both (either) price and (or) income varible are offered on the basis of Bass model. At the empirical test using Korean telephone data, the models with either price or income varible are the best forecasting model under apriori selected econometric criteria.

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Mechanistic Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic Modeling in Isolated Perfused Organs and at the Whole-Body Level

  • Weiss, Michael
    • Proceedings of the PSK Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.218-219
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    • 2002
  • In the past, the development of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models for quantitating the time course of drug responses was mainly based on two types of models, the empirical effect compartment model that simply accounts for the delay between effect and plasma concentration (hysteresis) and the mechanism-based so-called indirect response model. The first approach traces back to a paper by Segre (1) and its application was popularized by Holford and Sheiner (2); indirect response models were introduced by Jusko's group (3). (omitted)

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A study on Automatic Air Combat Simulation

  • Imado, Fumiak;Furukawa, Keiichi;Ozawa, Yoichiro;Mori, Tomokazu
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.156.6-156
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    • 2001
  • A computer software system which enables to assess the air combat performance only by a computer is currently under development. The system is composed with plural aircraft models, missile models, bullet models etc. The aircraft can implement several empirical air combat maneuvers automatically depending on the situation , therefore air combat simulations and assessment can be attained. Some of these maneuvers and features are explained.

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Suitability of stochastic models for mortality projection in Korea: a follow-up discussion

  • Le, Thu Thi Ngoc;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.171-188
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    • 2021
  • Due to an increased demand for longevity risk analysis, various stochastic models have been suggested to evaluate uncertainly in estimated life expectancy and the associated value of future annuity payments. Recently updated data allow us to analyze mortality for a longer historical period and extended age ranges. This study followed up previous case studies using up-to-date empirical data on Korean mortality and the recently developed R package StMoMo for stochastic mortality models analysis. The suitability of stochastic mortality models, focusing on retirement ages, was investigated with goodness-of-fit, validity of models, and ability of generating reasonable sets of simulation paths of future mortality. Comparisons were made across various types of models. Based on the selected models, the variability of important estimated measures associated with pension, annuity, and reverse mortgage were quantified using simulations.

Application of GIS-based Probabilistic Empirical and Parametric Models for Landslide Susceptibility Analysis (산사태 취약성 분석을 위한 GIS 기반 확률론적 추정 모델과 모수적 모델의 적용)

  • Park, No-Wook;Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Chung, Chang-Jo F.;Kwon, Byung-Doo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2005
  • Traditional GIS-based probabilistic spatial data integration models for landslide susceptibility analysis have failed to provide the theoretical backgrounds and effective methods for integration of different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. This paper applies two spatial data integration models including non-parametric empirical estimation and parametric predictive discriminant analysis models that can directly use the original continuous data within a likelihood ratio framework. Similarity rates and a prediction rate curve are computed to quantitatively compare those two models. To illustrate the proposed models, two case studies from the Jangheung and Boeun areas were carried out and analyzed. As a result of the Jangheung case study, two models showed similar prediction capabilities. On the other hand, in the Boeun area, the parametric predictive discriminant analysis model showed the better prediction capability than that from the non-parametric empirical estimation model. In conclusion, the proposed models could effectively integrate the continuous data for landslide susceptibility analysis and more case studies should be carried out to support the results from the case studies, since each model has a distinctive feature in continuous data representation.

A Semi-empirical Mass-loss Rate in Short-period CVs

  • Kim, Woong-Tae;Sirotkin, Fedir V.
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.76.2-76.2
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    • 2010
  • We present the final results of our study on the mass-loss rate of donor stars in cataclysmic variables (CVs). Observed donors are oversized in comparison with those of isolated single stars of the same mass, which is thought to be a consequence of the mass loss. Using the empirical mass-radius relation of CVs and the homologous approximation for changes in effective temperature T2, orbital period P, and luminosity of the donor with the stellar radius, we find the semi-empirical mass-loss rate M2dot of CVs as a function of P. The derived M2dot is at ~10-9.5-10-10 $M\odot$/yr and depends weakly on P when P > 90 min, while it declines very rapidly towards the minimum period when P < 90 min. The semi-empirical M2dot is significantly different from, and has a less-pronounced turnaround behavior with P than suggested by previous numerical models. The semi-empirical P-M2dot relation is consistent with the angular momentum loss due to gravitational wave emission, and strongly suggests that CV secondaries with 0.075 $M\odot$ < M2 < 0.2 $M\odot$ are less than 2 Gyrs old. When applied to selected eclipsing CVs, our semi-empirical mass-loss rates are in good agreement with the accretion rates derived from the effective temperatures T1 of white dwarfs. Based on the semi-empirical M2dot, SDSS 1501 and 1433 systems that were previously identified as post-bounce CVs have yet to reach the minimal period.

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