• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.1-6
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• 2004

On 27 June 2004, some one million voters went to the polls in Mongolia to elect 76 members of the Great State Hural, Mongolia's parliament. It was the fourth election held in Mongolia under the 1992 constitution. In the previous election, the former communist MPRP won a landslide, ousting the government of former democracy activists. Under the MPRP, Mongolia's economy performed extraordinary well. Surprisingly, the ruling Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP) lost its two-thirds majority and half its parliamentarians in the 2004 election. But the Motherland Democracy Coalition (MDC), a coalition of Mongolia's most influential opposition parties, fell short of achieving a majority of its own. After the election, a grand coalition government was formed, paving the way for profound legal, social, and economic reforms.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.83-95
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• 1998

Statistical models are proposed for analyzing categorical data in the presence of missing observations or nonresponses which might occur in the sampling surveys and polls. As an illustration, we analyzed real polling data of the pre-presidential election in the USA, 1948, It had been predicted that Dewey would win the election. However, Truman won in the actual election.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.153-162
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• 2012

We proposed a mixed-mode design with a landline survey and mobile survey as the solution for the problems of election opinion polls by the original telephone survey method, mostly with limited population coverage for young people not living at home and with lower efficiency in selecting valid voters. We numerically verified the applicability of the proposed dual frame survey by analyzing the preliminary opinion poll results of the Seoul mayor by-election of October 26 2011. This research achieved the result that relative standard errors were similar between a mobile RDD sample and landline RDD sample though the variance was bigger in the former. Though the combination of mobile RDD and landline RDD is not found to improve the forecast accuracy, it still is expected to have higher reliability for election polls by expanding the population coverage and compensating the weakness of each survey method.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.26 no.12
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• pp.1800-1808
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• 2022

During the election period, many polling agencies survey and distribute the approval ratings for each candidate. In the past, public opinion was expressed through the Internet, mobile SNS, or community, although in the past, people had no choice but to survey the approval rating by relying on opinion polls. Therefore, if the public opinion expressed on the Internet is understood through natural language analysis, it is possible to determine the candidate's approval rate as accurately as the result of the opinion poll. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of inferring the approval rate of candidates during the election period by synthesizing the political comments of users through internet community posting data. In order to analyze the approval rate in the post, I would like to suggest a method for generating the model that has the highest correlation with the actual opinion poll by using the KoBert, KcBert, and KoELECTRA models.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.285-301
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• 2018

There have been many studies that applied a data-driven analysis method to social media data, and some have even argued that this method can replace traditional polls. However, some other studies show contradictory results. There seems to be no consensus as to the methodology of data collection and analysis. But as social media-based election research continues and the data collection and analysis methodology keep developing, we need to review the key points of the controversy and to identify ways to go forward. Although some previous studies have reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of the social media-based election studies, they focused on predictive performance and did not adequately address other studies that utilized social media to address other issues related with public opinion during elections, such as public agenda or information diffusion. This paper tries to find out what information we can get by utilizing social media data and what limitations social media data has. Also, we review the various attempts to overcome these limitations. Finally, we suggest how we can best utilize social media data in understanding public opinion during elections.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.274-303
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• 2023

The third-person perception phenomenon can consistently be found in opinion poll news, but it remains unknown what determines the degree of the third-person perception (TPP) about specific election poll news. We investigated how respondents' preferred candidate's status in the poll affects the perceived impact of polling news on both themselves (PMI1) and on others (PMI3) as well as TPP (PMI3 - PMI1). We also examined the effect of subjective political knowledge and the perceived level of political knowledge of others on TPP. An online experiment was conducted in the context of a gubernatorial election in South Korea, in which the leading candidate in the poll and the question order (self-question first vs. other-question first) were manipulated. The results indicated that PMI1 and PMI3 were greater when the respondent's preferred candidate was leading in the poll. TPP did not differ depending on subjective knowledge, but it was greater when the others were non-experts (vs. experts). Lastly, question order was found to be a method factor that affected both PMI1 and PMI3. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.31-54
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• 2007

This paper examined the electoral polling methodologies such as sampling method, sampling frame and the classification of the don't-know responses. Quota sampling method seemed to be one of the major factors for the declining trust in the poll results. We suggested that new procedures for random sampling as well as the bad number screening procedures for RDD selection of phone numbers need to be developed. Also we reviewed how the KBS used the polls in defining voters' agenda and in communicating the public agenda to the candidates. In Korea, rates for the polls were based mainly on the number of interviews completed. It seemed to keep the polling companies from tim new and more time-demanding polling methods. Also various utilization of the polls are limited by the tendency to keep the questionnaire short.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.101-118
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• 2023

The 'MZ generation' is accustomed to expressing their thoughts and opinions online. As a result, the role of social media in understanding the opinions and public sentiment of the MZ generation has become increasingly important. In particular, the role of social media in understanding the opinions of young people in political contexts such as policies and elections is becoming more significant. Traditionally, in such political situations, various institutions conduct opinion surveys to grasp the opinions of the people. However, existing opinion surveys have many errors and limitations in understanding the specific opinions of the entire population since they are conducted on arbitrary individuals through survey techniques. Online communities are representative social media that share the opinions of the public on specific issues such as politics, economics, and culture. Therefore, online communities are widely used as a means to supplement the limitations of traditional opinion polls. In particular, the MZ generation is familiar with online platforms, and their political support has significant influence on election results and policy decisions. With this regard, this study analyzed the relationship between the sentiment reflected in online community text data by age group on major candidates and public opinion survey support rates during the Korean presidential election for those in their 20s. The analysis showed that negative sentiments reflected in online communities by the MZ generation have a negative correlation with public opinion survey support rates. This study contributes to theory and practice by revealing a significant association between social media and public opinion polls.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.375-385
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• 2009

For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.