• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.55-69
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• 2008

In most telephone surveys in Korea, telephone numbers are selected from the directories. Inevitably, such samples may lack representativeness due to poor coverage rate. To resolve the problem, Kang et al.(2008) implemented RDD(random digit dialing) method for nationwide sampling in Korea. The aim of this study is to compare an RDD sample with a traditional telephone quota sample that were collected independently by two survey institutes commissioned by the KBS-MBC consortium for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.53-64
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• 2014

One of the major problems to forecast election, especially based on survey, is nonresponse. We may have different forecasting results depend on method of imputation. Handling nonresponse is more important in a survey about sensitive subject, such as presidential election. In this research, we consider a model based method of nonresponse imputation. A model based imputation method should be constructed based on assumption of nonresponse mechanism and may produce different results according to the nonresponse mechanism. An assumption of the nonresponse mechanism is very important precondition to forecast the accurate results. However, there is no exact way to verify assumption of the nonresponse mechanism. In this paper, we compared the accuracy of prediction and assumption of nonresponse mechanism based on the result of presidential election exit poll. We consider maximum likelihood estimation method based on EM algorithm to handle assumption of the model of nonresponse. We also consider modified within precinct error which Bautista (2007) proposed to compare the predict result.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.25-48
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• 2011

In this paper, we overview the sample design, sampling error, non-response rate and prediction errors of the exit poll conducted for 2010 local elections and discusses how to detect a prediction bias in exit poll. To investigate the bias problem in exit poll in regional(Si-Do) level, we analyze exit poll data for 2007 presidential election and 2006 local elections as well as 2010 local elections in Korea. The measure of predictive accuracy A proposed by Martin et al.(2005) is used to assess the exit poll bias. The empirical studies based on three exit polls clearly show that there exits systematic bias in exit poll and the predictive bias of candidates affiliated to conservative party (such as Hannara-Dang) is serious in the specific regions. The result of this study on systematic bias will be very useful to improving the exit poll methodology in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.587-598
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• 2016

In predicting an outcome of election using a variety of methods ahead of the election, non-response is one of the major issues. Therefore, to address the non-response issue, a variety of methods of non-response imputation may be employed, but the result of forecasting tend to vary according to methods. In this study, in order to improve electoral forecasts, we studied a model based method of non-response imputation attempting to apply the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm, introduced by Wei and Tanner (1990). The MCEM algorithm using maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) is applied to solve the boundary solution problem under the non-ignorable non-response mechanism. We performed the simulation studies to compare estimation performance among MCEM, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation method. The results of simulation studies showed that MCEM method can be a reasonable candidate for non-response model estimation. We also applied MCEM method to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012 and investigated prediction performance using modified within precinct error (MWPE) criterion (Bautista et al., 2007).

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.16
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• pp.207-254
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• 2001

This study is focused on forecasting the future of tole-democracy. Many Scholars expect that internet provides technological space needing realizing the tole-democracy or deliberate democracy. Especially in Korea, this expectation is higher than other nations because of political corruption and inefficiency. Therefore internet is intended to considering as new technologies reforming political process. In 16th the general election period, many candidates established home page and used as election campaign tool. And a little of home pages is payed attention to among voters. In spite of using internet as political medium, many political communication researchers have a doubt that internet will realize ideal direct democracy. It's reason is that internet is open and anonymous space. At anonymous space, communication participators is tended to be irresponsible and non-serious. Therefore it is hard that cyber-politics will be ideal type of democracy. In this context, this paper analyzed how pauicipators communicate with others at cyber bulletin board establishing candidate's home pages. Main research questions is how do discussions at cyberspace fulfill the conditions of deliberate democracy. Therefore, concrete questions include; who are participators at candidate's cyber bulletin board; which pattern do they communicate; what is the theme of communication; which effects do the anonymous character of cyberspace influence. To that purpose, this study conducted content analysis on 4,210 written matters at 82 cyber bulletin boards of candidate's home page establishing during 16th the general election period. It can be found that cyberspace in Korea still is not deliberate democracy space and not will be. Firstly, discussion patterns at cyber bulletin board is "candidate with supporters communication space. To be exact, it is said that candidate's home page is "the space of self-convincing among supporters." Secondly, the main themes of discussion are simple emotional expressions; "I support you!" "fighting" "Be vigor" etc. By contrast, real political contents'-central or local political matters - is relatively few. In the mode of expression, real political messages are more positive, logical than simple expressions, candidates private matters. Especially this characteristic will make cyberspace as "mutual slander space" consolidating anonymous characteristic of cyberspace. finally, Cyberspace in Korea still is not real "public sphere" realizing deliberate process. Therefore to be real public sphere, it is needed to participant's ethical maturity and political citizenship. In conclusion, it is difficult that cyberspace will reconstruct the Athene's Agora. On the contrary, Cyberagora will like to be irrespectable area fulfilling the sweeping. Making the deliberate space, technological possibility and ethical condition will have to be balanced together.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.155-169
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to find a policy and to predict the needs of legislative information service of the 20th National Assembly. For this purpose, It is critical to understand the use behavior of legislative information service according to the attribute for the member of the 19th National Assembly. Thus, this study examined the results of reference service of National Assembly Library of Korea using the politics attribute and the relation attribute as independent variables for the member of the National Assembly in the First Half of the 19th National Assembly. Consequently, there were meaningful differences in the use of legislative information service between users by party affiliation, method of an election and introversion. Also, the increased demand of legislative information service was predicted in that the 20th National Assembly is the status of the opposition majority and the three major parties.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2017.01a
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• pp.273-274
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• 2017

대한민국 20대 총선, 영국의 유럽연합 탈퇴인 브렉시트, 트럼프와 힐러리의 대결인 미국 대선, 이 셋의 공통점은 언론의 예측과 다른 투표 결과가 나왔다는 점이다. 이러한 일련의 사건들로 인해, 각종 언론사에서 실시하고 있는 표본조사의 신뢰도에 대한 근본적 재검토의 필요성이 제기되고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 선거 후보자 지지율을 효율적이며 효과적으로 분석하기 위하여 SNS 감정분석을 제안한다. SNS 감정분석은 기존의 표본을 구하고 분석하는 방식보다 더 빠르게 표본 수집 및 분석이 가능하다. 또한 R프로그램과 구글을 이용하여 처리하기 때문에 기존 방식에 비하여 매우 저렴하다. 현재 언론사의 예측이 빗나가고 있는 시점에서 SNS 감정분석이 훌륭한 대안이 될 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서의 트래픽*감정분석 점수를 보았을 때, SNS 감정분석이 여론을 더 정확히 반영한다는 것을 증명한다.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.111-119
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• 2017

As of March 2017, fake news is largely focused on political issues. Outside the country, main issues of the fake news have been a hot topic in the US presidential election in 2016 and emerged as a new political and social problem in countries like Germany and France. In Korea, issues of the fake news are also linked with political issues such as presidential impeachment and prosecution, impeachment quota, early election, etc. This phenomenon has recently led to the production and spread of fake news related to safety and security issues as well as political issues in connection with various methods of generating articles and sharing information. As a result, there is a high possibility that the information will be transformed into information that can cause considerable confusion to the public. Therefore, the recognition of such problems means that it is important at this point to consider the related situation analysis and effective countermeasures. To do this, we tried to make accurate and meaningful analysis for the diagnosis, analysis, forecasting and management of issues utilizing Big Data. As a result, it is found that the fake news is continuously generated in relation to the safety and security issue as well as the political issue in the South Korea, and differs from the general form occurring outside the country.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1003-1016
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• 2014

Proper missing data imputation is an important procedure to obtain superior results for data analysis based on survey data. This paper deals with both a model based imputation method and model estimation method. We utilized a Bayesian method to solve a boundary solution problem in which we applied a maximum likelihood estimation method. We also deal with a missing mechanism model selection problem using forecasting results and a comparison between model accuracies. We utilized MWPE(modified within precinct error) (Bautista et al., 2007) to measure prediction correctness. We applied proposed ML and Bayesian methods to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012. Based on the analysis, the results under the missing at random mechanism showed superior prediction results than under the missing not at random mechanism.