• Title/Summary/Keyword: effort estimation

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Truck Weight Estimation using Operational Statistics at 3rd Party Logistics Environment (운영 데이터를 활용한 제3자 물류 환경에서의 배송 트럭 무게 예측)

  • Yu-jin Lee;Kyung Min Choi;Song-eun Kim;Kyungsu Park;Seung Hwan Jung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2022
  • Many manufacturers applying third party logistics (3PLs) have some challenges to increase their logistics efficiency. This study introduces an effort to estimate the weight of the delivery trucks provided by 3PL providers, which allows the manufacturer to package and load products in trailers in advance to reduce delivery time. The accuracy of the weigh estimation is more important due to the total weight regulation. This study uses not only the data from the company but also many general prediction variables such as weather, oil prices and population of destinations. In addition, operational statistics variables are developed to indicate the availabilities of the trucks in a specific weight category for each 3PL provider. The prediction model using XGBoost regressor and permutation feature importance method provides highly acceptable performance with MAPE of 2.785% and shows the effectiveness of the developed operational statistics variables.

Application of GIS to Typhoon Risk Assessment (지리정보시스템을 이용한 태풍 위험 평가)

  • Lee, Sung-Su;Chang, Eun-Mi
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.243-249
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    • 2009
  • Damages from typhoon events have contributed more than 60 percent of total economic and social loss and the size of loss have been increased up to 800 million dollars per year in Korea, It is therefore necessary to make an effort to mitigate the loss of natural disasters. To facilitate the evaluation of damages in advance and to support the decision making to recover the damages, scientific methods have been adopted. With the effort, GIS data can provide various tools. Three components of hazard mapping are estimation of hazard, inventory for vulnerable features, and fragility of each feature. Vulnerability of natural disaster can be obtained by relation between loss and meteorological data such as precipitation and wind speed. Features can be categorized from other GIS data of public facilities and private properties, and then social and economic loss can be estimated. At this point, GIS data conversions for each model are required. In this study, we build a method to estimate typhoon risk based on GIS data such as DEM, land cover and land use map, facilities.

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An Improvement of Function Point Models for Software Cost Estimation (소프트웨어 비용산정을 위한 기능점수 모형 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Su
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.6 no.9
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    • pp.2403-2413
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    • 1999
  • There is a strong need to develop a software cost estimation model on economic value perspective. The objective of this research is to improve current software cost estimation method on economic value perspective. We reviewed domestic and foreign researches and practices on software cost estimation with function point method, and derived promising alternative models. Pilot simulation was performed with real project data, and the probable best model was chosen. We collected data from 39 Korean companies, and assesed statistical significance of the model with those data. Empirical data shows that more practical model has better prediction accuracy. That is, the number of input and output modules, the number of tables, and the number of algorithms are chosen to be best set of functions. There exists strong correlation between the calculated function points and project effort. And, the revised set of technical complexity factors and evaluation guidelines show practical usefulness. We suggest that the above result be incorporated in a new improved guideline for software cost estimation. By adopting the results of this research to the guideline, we expect that technology innovation will be expedited, and that overall productivity of software industry will be increased.

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Range Estimating Performance Evaluation of the Underwater Broadband Source by Array Invariant (Array Invariant를 이용한 수중 광대역 음원의 거리 추정성능 분석)

  • Kim Se-Young;Chun Seung-Yong;Kim Boo-Il;Kim Ki-Man
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2006
  • In this paper the performance of a array invariant method is evaluated for source-range estimation in horizontally stratified shallow water ocean waveguide. The method has advantage of little computationally effort over existing source-localization methods. such as matched field processing or the waveguide invariant and array gain is fully exploited. And. no knowledge of the environment is required except that the received field should not be dominated by purely interference This simple and instantaneous method is applied to simulated acoustic propagation filed for testing range estimation performance. The result of range estimation according to the SNR for the underwater impulsive source with broadband spectrum is demonstrated. The spatial smoothing method is applied to suppress the effect of mutipath propagation by high frequency signal. The result of performance test for range estimation shows that the error rate is within 20% at the SNR above 10dB.

Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

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Estimation of Welding Material Quantity for Shipbuilding at Early Design Stage based on Three-dimensional Geometric Information (3차원 선박형상정보를 활용한 설계초기단계 용접물량 산출)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hoon;Byun, Seok-Ho;Nam, Jong-Ho;Kang, Tae-Won
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2017
  • These days, shipbuilding companies are making an effort to adopt the IT technology in order to improve the production efficiency. One such effort is to utilize a planning and scheduling system to predict the production cost in advance. In this system, assessing the welding material quantity is an important factor. Unfortunately, obtaining the welding material quantity in the early design stage is extremely difficult because the detailed production information, which is essential in deriving the cost associated with welding, is normally available at a later stage. This paper aims at developing a computerized program that produces an index to estimate the welding material quantity in the early design stage. By using only three-dimensional geometric information, the program analyzes the production process and estimates the welding material quantity at any design or production stage when no production information is available. The results can be used for the planning and scheduling system.

Fuzzy Inference-based Quantitative Estimation of Environmental Affecting Factor For Performance-based Durability Design of RC Structure Exposed to Salt Attack Environment (염해 환경에 노출된 RC 구조물의 내구성능설계를 위한 퍼지 추론 기반 환경영향지수의 산정)

  • Do Jeong Yun;Song Hun;Soh Seung Young;Soh Yang Seob
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.237-240
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    • 2005
  • As a part of the effort for improving the durability design based on a set of the deem-to-satisfy specifications, it is important and primary to quantitatively identify the environmental impact to a target reinforced concrete structure. In this work, an effort is made to quantitatively calculate the environmental affecting factor with using a fuzzy inference that it indicates the severity of environmental impact to the exposed reinforced concrete structure or member. This system is composed of input region, output region and rule base. For developing the fuzzy inference system surface chloride concentration{chloride), cyclic degree of wet and dry(CWD), relative humidity(RH) and temperature (TEMP) were selected as the input parameter to environmental affecting factor(EAF) of output parameter. The Rules in inference engine are generated from the engineering knowledge and intuition based on some international code of practises as well as various researcher's experimental data. The devised fuzzy inference system was verified comparing the inferred value with the investigation data, and proved to be validated. Thus it is anticipated that this system for quantifying EAF is certain to be considered into the starting point to develop the performance-based durability design considering the service life of structure.

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Analyzing Optimal Economic Fishing Efforts of the Coastal Snow Crab Gillnet Fishery (대게 연안자망어업의 경제적 적정 어구사용량 분석)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon;An, Heui-Chun;Lee, Kyoung-Hoon
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.25-39
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    • 2008
  • The Korean government is in the establishment process of plan for managing fishing effort by setting up the maximum fishing gear usage per fishery type for the recovery of fishery resources, for the settlement of disputes between fishery sectors over fishing gears, and for the stability of fishing business condition. Especially in the setting up of the maximum fishing gear usage, economic standards as well as biological standards are being considered as a significant factor to promote the sustainable and economically viable development of fisheries. This study is, thus, to analyze the optimal economic fishing gear usage ($E_{MEY}$) as the most economically efficient one for the coastal snow crab gillnet fishery, one of the most controversial sectors in establishing the maximum fishing gear usage. The data of logbooks per trip were used for concentrating on the estimation of $E_{MEY}$ per trip because it was considered there were limitations of data available for analyses. As a finding drawn from the analyses, the optimal economic trap usage ($E_{MEY}$) of coastal snow crab gillnet vessels per trip has to be decreased by about 13%. That is, reducing the trip gillnet usage up to the level of $E_{MEY}$ can lead to the reduction of trip fishing costs, thereby resulting in the increased trip profits.

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Impact of Digital Literacy on Intention to Use Technology for Online Distribution of Higher Education in Vietnam: A Study of Covid19 Context

  • LE, Thi Lan Huong;HOANG, Vu Hiep;HOANG, Mai Duc Minh;NGUYEN, Hong Phuc;BUI, Xuan Bach
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This research aims to provide empirical evidence on the impact of digital literacy on behavioural intention regarding using technology for distribution of higher education. Design, Methodology, and Approach: Quantitative analysis was carried out using Covariance-Based Structural Equation Model with data collected from 901 students who fully experienced 2-year study online at different universities in Vietnam. The structural model was built with digital literacy as the primary indicator and other variables were included based on modified version of Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) by adopting performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, habit, and hedonic motivation variables specifically for education sector. Self-efficacy was added to eliminate possible bias in technology acceptance. Results: From the results of model estimation, digital literacy presented positive impact on the online distribution of higher education in Vietnam. The mediating effects of various indicators such as performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, habit, hedonic motivation, and self-efficacy are significantly determined by research model. Conclusion: The higher level of digital literacy of the students, the more likely that they will use technology in higher education study, especially online learning. Additionally, the mediating effects of indicators from the UTAUT2 theoretical model were also evident to be positively significant.

A study on the forecasting biomass according to the changes in fishing intensity in the Korean waters of the East Sea (한국 동해 생태계의 어획강도 변화에 따른 자원량 예측 연구)

  • LIM, Jung-Hyun;SEO, Young-Il;ZHANG, Chang-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2018
  • Overfishing capacity has become a global issue due to over-exploitation of fisheries resources, which result from excessive fishing intensity since the 1980s. In the case of Korea, the fishing effort has been quantified and used as an quantified index of fishing intensity. Fisheries resources of coastal fisheries in the Korean waters of the East Sea tend to decrease productivity due to deterioration in the quality of ecosystem, which result from the excessive overfishing activities according to the development of fishing gear and engine performance of vessels. In order to manage sustainable and reasonable fisheries resources, it is important to understand the fluctuation of biomass and predict the future biomass. Therefore, in this study, we forecasted biomass in the Korean waters of the East Sea for the next two decades (2017~2036) according to the changes in fishing intensity using four fishing effort scenarios; $f_{current}$, $f_{PY}$, $0.5{\times}f_{current}$ and $1.5{\times}f_{current}$. For forecasting biomass in the Korean waters of the East Sea, parameters such as exploitable carrying capacity (ECC), intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) and catchability (q) estimated by maximum entropy (ME) model was utilized and logistic function was used. In addition, coefficient of variation (CV) by the Jackknife re-sampling method was used for estimation of coefficient of variation about exploitable carrying capacity ($CV_{ECC}$). As a result, future biomass can be fluctuated below the $B_{PY}$ level when the current level of fishing effort in 2016 maintains. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as useful data to suggest direction of establishment of fisheries resources management plan for sustainable use of fisheries resources in the future.