• Title/Summary/Keyword: economy model

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Increasing Accuracy of Stock Price Pattern Prediction through Data Augmentation for Deep Learning (데이터 증강을 통한 딥러닝 기반 주가 패턴 예측 정확도 향상 방안)

  • Kim, Youngjun;Kim, Yeojeong;Lee, Insun;Lee, Hong Joo
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2019
  • As Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology develops, it is applied to various fields such as image, voice, and text. AI has shown fine results in certain areas. Researchers have tried to predict the stock market by utilizing artificial intelligence as well. Predicting the stock market is known as one of the difficult problems since the stock market is affected by various factors such as economy and politics. In the field of AI, there are attempts to predict the ups and downs of stock price by studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques. This study suggest a way of predicting stock price patterns based on the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) among machine learning techniques. CNN uses neural networks to classify images by extracting features from images through convolutional layers. Therefore, this study tries to classify candlestick images made by stock data in order to predict patterns. This study has two objectives. The first one referred as Case 1 is to predict the patterns with the images made by the same-day stock price data. The second one referred as Case 2 is to predict the next day stock price patterns with the images produced by the daily stock price data. In Case 1, data augmentation methods - random modification and Gaussian noise - are applied to generate more training data, and the generated images are put into the model to fit. Given that deep learning requires a large amount of data, this study suggests a method of data augmentation for candlestick images. Also, this study compares the accuracies of the images with Gaussian noise and different classification problems. All data in this study is collected through OpenAPI provided by DaiShin Securities. Case 1 has five different labels depending on patterns. The patterns are up with up closing, up with down closing, down with up closing, down with down closing, and staying. The images in Case 1 are created by removing the last candle(-1candle), the last two candles(-2candles), and the last three candles(-3candles) from 60 minutes, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, and 5 minutes candle charts. 60 minutes candle chart means one candle in the image has 60 minutes of information containing an open price, high price, low price, close price. Case 2 has two labels that are up and down. This study for Case 2 has generated for 60 minutes, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, and 5minutes candle charts without removing any candle. Considering the stock data, moving the candles in the images is suggested, instead of existing data augmentation techniques. How much the candles are moved is defined as the modified value. The average difference of closing prices between candles was 0.0029. Therefore, in this study, 0.003, 0.002, 0.001, 0.00025 are used for the modified value. The number of images was doubled after data augmentation. When it comes to Gaussian Noise, the mean value was 0, and the value of variance was 0.01. For both Case 1 and Case 2, the model is based on VGG-Net16 that has 16 layers. As a result, 10 minutes -1candle showed the best accuracy among 60 minutes, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, 5minutes candle charts. Thus, 10 minutes images were utilized for the rest of the experiment in Case 1. The three candles removed from the images were selected for data augmentation and application of Gaussian noise. 10 minutes -3candle resulted in 79.72% accuracy. The accuracy of the images with 0.00025 modified value and 100% changed candles was 79.92%. Applying Gaussian noise helped the accuracy to be 80.98%. According to the outcomes of Case 2, 60minutes candle charts could predict patterns of tomorrow by 82.60%. To sum up, this study is expected to contribute to further studies on the prediction of stock price patterns using images. This research provides a possible method for data augmentation of stock data.

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Exploratory Study on the Effect of the Entrepreneurial Infrastructure Institution on the Regional Employment: Focusing on the Partner Square of N Company (창업 인프라 기관의 지역 고용효과에 관한 탐색적 연구: N사 파트너스퀘어를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jong Sung;Shim, Jae Hun;Kim, Do Hyeon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2020
  • Governments and private companies have established various local entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions in most regions in order to reduce youth unemployment, and boost youth entrepreneurship and regional employment. However, previous studies has been limited to explore the impact of the entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions on the willingness of start-up entrepreneurs. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to fill in the gaps of the research, identify the effect of the entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions on regional employment focusing on the Partner Squares which are entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions in several regions and established by N company, and set a foundation for further research regarding the effectiveness of the entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions. In order to verify the effectiveness of the Partner Squares on the local employment, we use the raw data of the Economically Active Population Survey (Statistics Korea) and analyze the effectiveness by using the Difference-in-Differences model. The main findings are as follows. While the Partner Square Seoul has not statistically influenced on the employment of local youth workers, the Partner Square Busan has increased about 3% of the average number of employees (575 thousand) from May 2017 to July 2019, increasing the number of local youth workers by 17,000. Also, after the establishment of the Partner Square Gwangju, the institution has increased 4,500 local employees, which is about 1.7% of the average number of employees (267,000) from September 2018 to July 2019. This implies that the Partner Squares provide a variety of effective start-up education programs and networks for pre-starters and founders in the region, thereby helping them to grow and boosting the local employment. An important implication is that by using government statistical data, we find roles of entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions to revitalize local economy and employment. In future studies, studies need to be conducted considering various exogenous variables that can affect local employment, such as the government industrial policies and entrepreneurial infrastructure institutions other than the Partner Squares.

The Aspects of Modernity in ImcheonByeolgok(林川別曲) by Okgukjae(玉局齋), Lee Un-young: Based on Using Greimas's Actant Model (옥국재(玉局齋) 이운영(李運永)의 <임천별곡(林川別曲)>에 나타난 근대성(近代性) 양상(樣相) - 그레마스의 행위소 모형을 중심으로)

  • Park, sujin
    • 기호학연구
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    • no.57
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    • pp.91-120
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    • 2018
  • This study was contemplated about an aspects of modernity that was discovered of ImcheonByeolgok(林川別曲) written by Okgukjae Lee, Un-young in 18th Century. It was composed time that unprecedented state in the 18th century. So, I considered that Modernity was the most appeared at 18th Century. During this period, Changes has happened in ideology and system in terms of politics, economy, society and culture. This change is the beginning of a new modern consciousness. There is also a tendency to think of Imcheonbyeolgok as the autobiographical story of Lee, Yun-young. It seems that Lee, Yun-young has a progressive scholarly thought, but he did not reveal his own situation by insulting him. Therefore, I am not realistically valid for being able to see it as an autobiographical story that he actually experienced. Also, although ImcheonByeolgok is known as a love song, it is hard to see it as a love song because its satirical features are strong. and It is characterized by the peculiar form of narrative being described as a dialogue. I picked two aspects of modernity in ImcheonByeolgok. One is resistance to love and desire, and the other is disintegration of the order of identity. The two aspects of this paper were presented as Greimas's Actant Model. ImcheonByeolgok is the result of efforts to show the changing modern Joseon Dynasty's elements in the form of resistance and resistance to Joseon's feudal society, such as Confucian ideology and identity systems. Thus, I suggested the corrupt ruling class of Joseon's feudal society and the exploited working class life as an old living and a grandmother instead of 'resistance' and 'disposal' in the 18th century. The criticism of traditional feudal societies that emerged in the 18th century turned out to be a hegemony that distinguishes the Middle Ages from the Modern Age, which resulted in differences between the ages before and after the 18th century. Although these hegemony were not clearly distinguished in household literature in the 18th century, it was established and developed in the 19th century. I suggested that Lim's Star Song was an important work that played an important role in bringing about this change.

Optimization for Ammonia Decomposition over Ruthenium Alumina Catalyst Coated on Metallic Monolith Using Response Surface Methodology (반응표면분석법을 이용한 루테늄 알루미나 메탈모노리스 코팅촉매의 암모니아 분해 최적화)

  • Choi, Jae Hyung;Lee, Sung-Chan;Lee, Junhyeok;Kim, Gyeong-Min;Lim, Dong-Ha
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.218-226
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    • 2022
  • As a result of the recent social transformation towards a hydrogen economy and carbon-neutrality, the demands for hydrogen energy have been increasing rapidly worldwide. As such, eco-friendly hydrogen production technologies that do not produce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are being focused on. Among them, ammonia (NH3) is an economical hydrogen carrier that can easily produce hydrogen (H2). In this study, Ru/Al2O3 catalyst coated onmetallic monolith for hydrogen production from ammonia was prepared by a dip-coating method using a catalyst slurry mixture composed of Ru/Al2O3 catalyst, inorganic binder (alumina sol) and organic binder (methyl cellulose). At the optimized 1:1:0.1 weight ratio of catalyst/inorganic binder/organic binder, the amount of catalyst coated on the metallic monolith after one cycle coating was about 61.6 g L-1. The uniform thickness (about 42 ㎛) and crystal structure of the catalyst coated on the metallic monolith surface were confirmed through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Also, a numerical optimization regression equation for NH3 conversion according to the independent variables of reaction temperature (400-600 ℃) and gas hourly space velocity (1,000-5,000 h-1) was calculated by response surface methodology (RSM). This model indicated a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.991 and had statistically significant predictors. This regression model could contribute to the commercial process design of hydrogen production by ammonia decomposition.

The Effect of Interest Rate Variability on Housing Prices (이자율 변동이 주택가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Myung-hoon
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2022
  • The real estate market is an important part of a country's economy and plays a major role in economic growth through the growth of many related industries. Changes in interest rates affect asset prices and have a significant impact on housing prices. This study analyzed housing prices by dividing them into nationwide, local, and Seoul housing prices in order to analyze whether the effect of changes in interest rates on housing prices shows regional differences. The analysis was conducted from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, and was analyzed using the DOLS model. The main analysis results are as follows. First, interest rates were found to have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and a drop in interest rates significantly increased national housing prices and an increase in interest rates significantly lowered national housing prices. The consumer price index and loan growth rate also had a positive effect on housing prices nationwide, but statistical significance was not high. Second, interest rates had a negative effect on local housing prices, unlike national housing prices, but were not statistically significant. On the other hand, it was found that the consumer price index and loan growth rate had a larger and significant positive effect on local housing prices compared to national housing prices. Finally, it was found that the interest rate had the only significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. And this effect was greater and more significant than the effect on national and local housing prices. In the end, it was found that the effect of interest rates on Korean housing prices differs locally. Interest rates have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and local housing prices, but they are not statistically significant. In addition, the interest rate was found to have the largest and most significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. In addition, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. This means that there are differences between regions with different factors influencing local and Seoul housing prices, and this point should be considered when drafting and implementing real estate policies.

Factors Influencing the Social and Economic Performance of High-Tech Social Ventures (하이테크 소셜벤처의 사회적·경제적성과에 미치는 영향요인)

  • Kim, Hyeong Min;Kim, Jin Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.121-137
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present the necessary success factors and strategies for high-tech social ventures and stakeholders in the related ecosystem by empirically identifying factors that affect their sustainable performance. Based on prior research, the dimensions of three performance factors were presented: core technology competency, core business competency, and social mission orientation. Then, such sub-dimensions such as technology innovation orientation, R&D capability, business model, customer orientation, social network, and social mission pursuit were derived. For empirical analysis, a survey was conducted on domestic high-tech social ventures, and the significance of the hypothesis was tested through PLS-structural equation analysis of the collected 243 valid data. As a result, it was found that the technology innovation orientation was embedded as an abstract organizational and cultural characteristic in the high-tech social venture, which is a research sample, and thus did not significantly affect the dependent variable. In other words, aiming for the latest cutting-edge technology alone cannot affect performance, and it is a result of proving the need for substantial influencing factors that can strengthen it. On the other hand, the business model had a significant effect only on social performance, which is presumed to be the limitation of measurement tools developed for social enterprises, and the results of additional multi-group analysis to determine the cause also supported the basis for this estimation. Excluding the previous two performance factors, R&D competency, customer orientation, social network, and social mission pursuit were all found to have a significant positive (+) effect on social and economic performance. This study laid a foundation for related research by identifying high-tech social ventures emerging in the ecosystem of a social economy and expanded empirical research models related to the performance of existing social enterprises and social ventures. However, in the research method or process, there were limitations such as factor derivation or verification for balance of dual performance, subjective measurement method, and sample representativeness. It is expected that more in-depth follow-up studies will continue by supplementing future limitations and designing improved research models.

Enhancing Technology Learning Capabilities for Catch-up and Post Catch-up Innovations (기술학습역량 강화를 통한 추격 및 탈추격 혁신 촉진)

  • Bae, Zong-Tae;Lee, Jong-Seon;Koo, Bonjin
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 2016
  • Motivation and activities for technological learning, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity are driving forces of economic development in Asian countries. In the early stages of technological development, technological learning and entrepreneurship are efficient ways in which to catch up with advanced countries because firms can accumulate skills and knowledge quickly at relatively low risk. In the later stages of technological development, however, innovation and creativity become more important. This study aims to identify a) the factors (learning capabilities) that influence technological learning performance and b) barriers to enhancing innovation capabilities for the creative economy and organizations. The major part of this study is related to learning capabilities in the post-catch-up era. Based on a literature review and observations from Korean experiences, this study proposes a technological learning model composed of various influencing factors on technological learning. Three hypotheses are derived, and data are collected from Korean machine tool manufacturers. Intense interviews with CEOs and R&D directors are conducted using structured questionnaires. Statistical analysis, such as correlation and ANOVA are then carried out. Furthermore, this study addresses how to enhance innovation capabilities to move forward. Innovation enablers and barriers are identified by case studies and policy analysis. The results of the empirical study identify several levels of firms' learning capabilities and activities such as a) stock of technology, b) potential of technical labor, c) explicit technological efforts, d) readiness to learn, e) top management support, f) a formal technological learning system, g) high learning motivation, h) appropriate technology choice, and i) specific goal setting. These learning capabilities determine firms' learning performance, especially in the early stages of development. Furthermore, it is found that the critical factors for successful technological learning vary along the stages of technology development. Throughout the statistical and policy analyses, this study confirms that technological learning can be understood as an intrinsic principle of the technology development process. Firms perform proactive and creative learning in the late stages, while reactive and imitative learning prevails in the early stages. In addition, this study identifies the driving forces or facilitating factors enhancing innovation performance in the post catch-up era. The results of the preliminary case studies and policy analysis show some facilitating factors such as a) the strategic intent of the CEO and corporate culture, b) leadership and change agents, c) design principles and routines, d) ecosystem and collaboration with partners, and e) intensive R&D investment.

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Analyses of the Efficiency in Hospital Management (병원 단위비용 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Ro, Kong-Kyun;Lee, Seon
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.66-94
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    • 2004
  • The objective of this study is to examine how to maximize the efficiency of hospital management by minimizing the unit cost of hospital operation. For this purpose, this paper proposes to develop a model of the profit maximization based on the cost minimization dictum using the statistical tools of arriving at the maximum likelihood values. The preliminary survey data are collected from the annual statistics and their analyses published by Korea Health Industry Development Institute and Korean Hospital Association. The maximum likelihood value statistical analyses are conducted from the information on the cost (function) of each of 36 hospitals selected by the random stratified sampling method according to the size and location (urban or rural) of hospitals. We believe that, although the size of sample is relatively small, because of the sampling method used and the high response rate, the power of estimation of the results of the statistical analyses of the sample hospitals is acceptable. The conceptual framework of analyses is adopted from the various models of the determinants of hospital costs used by the previous studies. According to this framework, the study postulates that the unit cost of hospital operation is determined by the size, scope of service, technology (production function) as measured by capacity utilization, labor capital ratio and labor input-mix variables, and by exogeneous variables. The variables to represent the above cost determinants are selected by using the step-wise regression so that only the statistically significant variables may be utilized in analyzing how these variables impact on the hospital unit cost. The results of the analyses show that the models of hospital cost determinants adopted are well chosen. The various models analyzed have the (goodness of fit) overall determination (R2) which all turned out to be significant, regardless of the variables put in to represent the cost determinants. Specifically, the size and scope of service, no matter how it is measured, i. e., number of admissions per bed, number of ambulatory visits per bed, adjusted inpatient days and adjusted outpatients, have overall effects of reducing the hospital unit costs as measured by the cost per admission, per inpatient day, or office visit implying the existence of the economy of scale in the hospital operation. Thirdly, the technology used in operating a hospital has turned out to have its ramifications on the hospital unit cost similar to those postulated in the static theory of the firm. For example, the capacity utilization as represented by the inpatient days per employee tuned out to have statistically significant negative impacts on the unit cost of hospital operation, while payroll expenses per inpatient cost has a positive effect. The input-mix of hospital operation, as represented by the ratio of the number of doctor, nurse or medical staff per general employee, supports the known thesis that the specialized manpower costs more than the general employees. The labor/capital ratio as represented by the employees per 100 beds is shown to have a positive effect on the cost as expected. As for the exogeneous variable's impacts on the cost, when this variable is represented by the percent of urban 100 population at the location where the hospital is located, the regression analysis shows that the hospitals located in the urban area have a higher cost than those in the rural area. Finally, the case study of the sample hospitals offers a specific information to hospital administrators about how they share in terms of the cost they are incurring in comparison to other hospitals. For example, if his/her hospital is of small size and located in a city, he/she can compare the various costs of his/her hospital operation with those of other similar hospitals. Therefore, he/she may be able to find the reasons why the cost of his/her hospital operation has a higher or lower cost than other similar hospitals in what factors of the hospital cost determinants.

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A Study on the Start-up and Growth Business Model of Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Enterprises: Hyunsung Techno (제조기업의 창업과 성장의 비즈니스 모델 연구: 현성테크노)

  • Choi, In-Hyok;Kim, Do-Yeon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.103-117
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    • 2019
  • Under the uncertainties and the consequent turmoils of the IMF financial crisis in Korea, Hyunsung Techno was founded in 1997 on the basis of automobile press molding which is critical for the quality of automobile. Ever since, Hyunsung Techno has grown rapidly based on the domestic market; however, gradually, it had faced a stalemate in terms of the saturation, on the supply side and the growth limit, on the demand side, of the domestic molding market. Accordingly, Hyunsung pushed for a strategy to localize overseas markets and a new acquisition strategy instead of resting on the domestic mold industry's growth, and the success of these strategies enabled it to leap forward into a global company with five companies including affiliates and 70 billion won in sales. The main reason why Hyunsung Techno evolved from a small and medium-sized manufacturing company into a global businesses is due to the success of Boa Constrictor M&A strategy. Its acquisition strategy is not just a successful case of any acquisition, but a rare, maybe the first domestic case of a successful acquisition of a primary supplier by a secondary supplier. Through the success of this strategy, Hyunsung Techno has achieved a continuous growth of businesses, an increase in sales volume, and expansion into new businesses. And on top of that, this achievements is leading it to be a global conglomerate In this study, Hyunsung Techno's success strategy, which is transformed from a small domestic manufacturing company into a global enterprise, was analyzed in detail with its development stages divided into start-up, overseas expansion, acquisitions, and business diversification. Eventually, this case study is meant to offer strategic implications for other small and medium-sized businesses under the current, gloomy economy of low or zero growth of today.

The Effect of Physical Pedestrian Environment on Walking Satisfaction - Focusing on the Case of Jinhae City - (물리적 보행환경이 보행만족도에 미치는 영향 - 진해시를 사례지역으로 -)

  • Byeon, Ji-Hye;Park, Kyung-Hun;Choi, Sang-Rok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2010
  • Physical activity of the people has decreased due to a sedentary lifestyle according to developing the economy throughout the world. It is thought to increase the risk of chronic diseases, including obesity, diabetes, etc. People are interested in walking, which is an easy activity to engage in as an antidote to chronic diseases. The aim of this study is to increase the diminishing physical activity of modem society by inducing walking as part of everyday life through building a walking-based activity-friendly city where people can live merrily, safely and pleasantly. For this purpose, this study conducted a satisfaction survey to dwellers of Jinhae on the physical pedestrian environments which affect determining walking participation and intentions of people, and also provided a valid model to evaluate the effects of the physical environmental factors on walking satisfaction using factor analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results are summarized as follows. The 18 variables of the physical pedestrian environments were selected based on pre-literature reviews. The results of the satisfaction surveys showed that the satisfaction of crossing aids in segments was highest, while the building feature was the lowest. Factor analysis was run through a two-step process. The first analysis was conducted to examine the adequacy of this factor analysis on the selected 18 variables. As a result, two variables were removed and the remaining 16 variables were extracted to the four factors by second analysis. Each factor was named function of path, effect of traffic, amenity and safety based on the each factor's commonality. Each factor score of the extracted four factors was set as the independent variable, while the overall walking satisfaction was set as the dependent variable. Then, the multiple linear regression analysis was conducted and showed that all four factors had a positive influence on the overall satisfaction of walking, especially the 'function of path' and 'amenity' factors, followed by 'effect of traffic' and 'safety'. The results of this research will be used as foundational data for creating a walking-based activity-friendly city.