• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic estimation

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Evaluation and Selection of Building Materials based on Life Cycle Cost Prediction (생애주기비용 예측 기반 건물재료 경제성 평가 및 선정)

  • Ahn, Junghwan;Lim, Jinkang;Oh, Minho;Lee, Jaewook
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.34-45
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    • 2015
  • As buildings become larger and more complicated, construction costs have increased with a considerable effect on buildings' Life Cycle Cost (LCC). However, there has been little consideration on economic aspects in the selection of construction materials due to limited information on the materials and dependency in architects' experience and inefficiency in cost estimation, causing design changes, increase in maintenance cost, difficulty in budgeting, and decrease in building performance. To solve these problems, this study proposed a BIM-based material selection model which reflects the comprehensive economic efficiency of building materials. Our cost prediction model can estimates the material-related cost during the entire building life cycle. Furthermore, we implemented the proposed model in connection with BIM, which can analyze and compare LCC by material. Through the validation of the model, we could confirm the necessity of LCC-based material selection in comparison with the conventional cost-centered material selection.

Determination of a Robust Economic Order Quantity Using Taguchi Method (다구찌 방법(方法)을 이용한 경제적(經濟的) 발주량(發注量)의 안정성(安定性) 설계(設計))

  • Choe, Jong-Deok;Seo, Sun-Geun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.68-79
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    • 1992
  • The economic order quantity(EOQ) is a robust quantity, and it is largely insensitive to reasonable errors in the estimation of most of its parameters. Optimal EOQ and reorder point which are not sensitive to the estimates of the various cost model parameters for Kim and Park's model are determined. This of Taguchi's parameter design which finds a robust EOQ and reorder point using reasonable cost structure on the assumption of normally distributed quality characteristic. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the proposed procedure and computer aided numerical experiments for selected values of backordered fractions and standard deviations are performed.

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생존분석 기법을 이용한 기업 도산 예측 모형

  • 남재우;이회경
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.40-43
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we investigate how the average survival time of listed companies in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) are affected by changes in macro-economic environment and covariate vectors which show peculiar financial characteristics of each company. We also apply the survival analysis approach to the dichotomous firm failure prediction and the results show a similar pattern of forecasting performance using the existing dichotomous prediction techniques. These findings suggest that, when we consider a bankruptcy model under a certain economic event, the survival approach can be a useful alternative to the existing dichotomous prediction methods since the approach provides estimation of average survival time as well as simple binary prediction.

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Can Big Data Help Predict Financial Market Dynamics?: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

  • Pyo, Dong-Jin
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2017
  • This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea

  • Jung, Yongseung
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.409-427
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    • 2019
  • This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

A Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Estimation of Efficiencies for Strawberry and Tomato Farming : Effect of Environmentally Friendly Farming (베이지언 확률프론티어 기법을 이용한 딸기 및 토마토 친환경재배의 효율성 분석)

  • Park, Ho-Jeong;Yang, Seung-Ryong
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.355-368
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    • 2016
  • There are growing interests in environmental friendly cultivation for the matter of health concern. This study analyzes an economic efficiency of strawberry and tomato farming by considering the role of environmentally friendly cultivation. The Database of Rural Development Administration is used for strawberry and tomato farming households. We adopt a Bayesian stochastic frontier model to resolve a small sample property of the data. Empirical finding is that environmentally friendly cultivation improves the revenue of farming but the effect on net profit is not conclusive which calls for future research.

Estimation of WTP for Water Quality Improvements in Paldang Reservoir Using Contingent Valuation (팔당호 수질개선에 대한 소비자 지불의사액 추정)

  • Kim, Bong-Koo;Cho, Yongsung;Kwak, Jae Eun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.433-459
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    • 2001
  • The water quality of Paldang reservoir now grades the third class water based on COD criterion, meaning that it is no longer suitable for drinking. This study attempted to estimate the economic value of water quality improvement in Paldang reservoir using CVM. The survey used payment card format to measure the willingness to pay of the questionnaire respondents for the improvement of water quality and also factors that affect the WTP. The survey showed that men rather than women, those had higher income and paid more water supply charges, those who lived in the area for a shorter period of time, those who do not use city water for drinking, had willingness to pay more. The WTP was estimated 4,952 to 5,497 won on a monthly average. The economic value of the improvement of the water quality of Paldang reservoir was estimated between 344.2~382.1 billion won on an annual basis.

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Development of a Daily Electricity Business Index by using the Electricity Daily Data of the Manufacturing Sector (제조업 일별 전력 사용량을 활용한 일일전력경기지수(DEBI) 개발)

  • Oh, Seunghwan;Park, Sungkeun
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2016
  • Electricity sales are directly measured from individual consumers, which could minimize the time gap between data collection and public announcement. Furthermore, industrial electricity sales are highly linked with production and output. Therefore, industrial electricity consumption can be used to track production and output in real time. By using the high-frequency data of industrial electricity sales, this study develops the daily electricity business index (DEBI) to capture the daily economic status. The steps used to formulate DEBI are as follows: (1)selection of the explanatory variables and period, (2) amendment of the seasonal adjustment to eliminate daily temperature and effective day effects, (3) estimation of the weighted value via variables by using PCA, (4) calculation of DEBI and commencement of validation tests. Our empirical analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis show that DEBI is highly related to existing economic indices.

A Study of Economic Value Estimation of Korea Railroad Industry (철도산업의 국민경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Lee Sun-Cheol;Yu Jae-Gyun;Han Won-Yong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2004
  • This study measures the investment effects of railroad industries on Korean economics, using the table of industry relation analysis. Until now, few studies have analyzed the economic effects of railroad in Korea so that this study can have a big implication for transportation policies in making decisions on its investment level as top priority. This study finds that railroad investment effects are larger than those of road on the national economics and, thus, impling that the expansion of railroad investment is required to grow continuously national economics as well as a major modal of transportation networks.

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Manufacture and Applicasion of High-Early Strength Latex-Modified Concrete to Resurface and Repair Bridge Decks (조강형 Latex Modified Concrete를 이용한 교량상판면 보수용 Overlay Concrete 제조 및 적용에 관한 연구)

  • 엄태선;임채용;백상현;이승재;조윤호;엄주용
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.485-490
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    • 2000
  • Because of occuring easily the crack, debond, lutting on asphalts pavement of bredge decks under traffic's heavy weigt load. We investigated the application of latex modified concrete to resurface and repaire bridge decks for preventing the above problems. Here, Using the ordinary portland cement and high early cement, We rested mix design, workability, compressive strength, adhesive power, drying shrinkage, carbonation, and economic estimation etc. We selected the condition of application to resurface and repaire bridge decks and detected high early cement is superior to ordinary portland cement in results of analyzing the application of the repairing bridge decks and economic estimations.

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