• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic estimation

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Public Debt Management and Its Impact on Economic Development: The Case of Vietnam

  • THI, Phuong Lan Vo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.283-289
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    • 2022
  • Public investment is the process of investing capital in projects that serve national interests and thereby create a driving force for economic development in each country. Especially in developing countries, investment capital is limited, so improving the efficiency of public investment becomes a decisive factor for economic development and enhancing the country's status and ultimately making the country a should be rich. Vietnam has a low starting point, has gone through the doi moi process, and has gradually become a middle-income country, and public investment is attracting attention to improve the quality of the country's infrastructure. The objective of this study is to evaluate the factors affecting the effectiveness of public debt management in Vietnam, through a survey of 150 experts with knowledge of public investment and public debt management, using the results of the estimation through the Using SPSS software, the research results show that the monitoring system and human resource quality have an impact on the effectiveness of public debt management. The study could not, however, discover any proof of the influence of institutional quality, geographic location, or accountability on the effectiveness of public debt management. The research also addresses several policy recommendations for Vietnam that would help the country manage its public debt better in the future.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Fundamentals in Korea

  • Keun Yeong Lee
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.277-314
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the response of economic fundamentals to a misalignment shock of the real effective exchange rate in Korea. The estimation results of the equilibrium exchange rate determination model and time series model show that there is no significant difference in the direction of the deviation from equilibrium and that the won is significantly undervalued during the period before 1988, or during the currency and global financial crises. The cumulative impulse response analysis of the VAR model over the full period shows that an upward shock to the deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate reduces the GDP gap and inflation rate, while the effect on the call rate is not statistically significant. Furthermore, an upward misalignment shock initially worsens the goods and services balance, but the deficit in the goods and services balance shrinks significantly over time. In rolling regressions analysis, the entire sample is divided into two periods to estimate the impulse response function from the first period, and then the same procedure is repeated by moving the sample forward one by one. The cumulative impulse response results show that, as is the case for the full period, a positive exchange rate misalignment shock initially reduces the GDP gap, inflation, and worsens the goods and services balance, but the impact of this upward shock on these variables becomes increasingly weaker in the more recent sample. It also shows that the negative impact of upward shocks on the current account is smoothed out more recently during periods of undervaluation than during periods of overvaluation.

The Estimated Factors for School Adaptation on School Aged Children by General Characteristics - 5 Elementary Schools - (학령기 아동의 일반적 특성에 따른 학교생활적응정도 예측요인 - 5개 초등학교를 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Sang-Sook;Ji, Eun-Sun
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.707-716
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: This study was to examine estimation variables and predicted probability for school-aged children's school adaptation. Methods: The subjects of this study consisted of 614 children. Data were analyzed by logistic regression using SPSS Windows 11.0. Results: 1. Girls adjusted themselves 1.65 times easier than boys, and 5th-and 6th-graders adjusted themselves slightly easier than 4th-graders. Children with monthly pocket money lower than 10,000 won adjust adjusted 2.92 times easier than those with a larger amount of pocket money, unhealthy children adjusted themselves 2.44 times easier than healthy ones, and children with low academic achievement adjusted themselves 2.68 times easier than those with high academic achievements. 2. As for family economic status, children who thought the economic condition of their family poor adjusted themselves 2.41 times easier than those who thought the economic condition of their family fine. As for conversation with people, children conversing with families and relatives adjusted themselves 2.69 times easier and those conversing with friends and others adjusted themselves 2.71 times easier than those conversing with none. Children from normal families adjusted themselves 3.44 times easier than those from deficiency families. 4. The overall prediction rate was 73.9%. Conclusions: It is concluded that nurses, teachers and parents are important in improving school-aged children's adaptation to school life.

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Estimation and utilization of transport LPG demand function (수송용 LPG 수요함수의 추정 및 활용)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Han, Jong-Ho;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2012
  • This paper attempts to estimate the demand function for the transport LPG and to analyze long-run and short-run price and income elasticities. In addition, the paper measures consumer surplus and economic value ensuing from the transport LPG consumption by utilizing the estimated long-run price elasticity. The price and the income data are the monthly real transport LPG price and the monthly composite index adjusted by real transport LPG price from 2003 to 2012. Unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model are to take the procedure of estimation of demand curve. The demand for transport LPG is considered to be inelastic and the long-run demand is more elasticity than that of short-run. Price elasticity of demand estimate here is -0.422, and the estimated consumer surplus and economic value in 2010/03 are 966 and 1,781 billion won, respectively.

Economic Impacts of Invasive Pests under Climate Change: A Case of Lycorma delicatula (기후변화에 따른 미발생 병해충 피해 경제적 영향 분석: Lycorma delicatula의 사례를 중심으로)

  • An, Hyunjin;Cho, Sung Ju;Oh, Saera;Jung, Jae-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.415-422
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    • 2018
  • Lycorma delicatula, known as spotted lanternfly, is a planthopper native to Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, India and South China. This species damages local fruit trees and has spread rapidly in South Korea in recent years. The purpose of this study is to present the methods and estimation results pertaining to the risk of invasive species like Lycorma delicatula. We used a partial budget (PB) method to assess direct income reduction of farm households and a partial equilibrium (PE) model to examine social welfare change from the outbreak of Lycorma delicatula. We also estimated the future economic impacts of Lycorma delicatula under various climate scenarios considering habitat suitability. As climate change progresses, domestic ecosystems are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to pest outbreaks leading to further economic damage. We believe that this study can be a base to evaluate efficiency of the national pest control and quarantine system.

Country Image and Product Attitude: An Estimation of Switching Costs for the Korean Wave

  • Shen, Yan;Kwak, Ro-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.45-72
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This study examines the mediating effect of switching costs (economic risk costs and setup costs) on the relationships of country image with product attitude and product attachment. Switching-cost effects for the Korean Wave, which are insufficiently addressed in the literature, were investigated using the country image of Korea as a proxy for the Korean Wave. Moreover, this study examined the economic effects of the Korean Wave and the negative effect of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment on these economic effects. Design/methodology - A total of 302 Chinese consumers were surveyed using a questionnaire. Because this was an exploratory study and was not based on a classical model, the PLS-SEM method was employed to test the stability of the model and its hypotheses. Findings - Switching costs had mediating effects on the relationships of country image with product attitude and product attachment. The switching-cost effects for the Korean Wave were verified. However, neither the economic image nor cultural image of Korea had significant effects on the economic risk costs. Moreover, the economic image of Korea had no significant effect on the set-up costs. Originality/value - This study broadened the understanding of the relationships among country image, switching costs, product attitude, and product attachment and advanced the knowledge of relevant theories. The results contribute theoretically to the literature on switching-cost effects for the Korean Wave. The results confirmed the negative effect of THAAD deployment on the economic effects of the Korean Wave. In the rapidly developing international environment, these research results could serve as theoretical reference guidelines for suppliers when developing marketing strategies.

Economic Challenges and Solutions in the Korean Peninsula Unification Process (한반도 통일 과정의 경제적 과제와 해결 방안)

  • Kyong-Seok Hong;Kyoung-Haing Lee;Sang Hyuk Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.437-442
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    • 2024
  • The unification of the Korean Peninsula is not only a national aspiration but also holds significant economic implications. By maximizing the economic synergy between South and North Korea and reconstructing the North Korean economy, balanced development across the peninsula can be promoted. However, the unification process will face various economic challenges, including the substantial costs of unification, integrating different economic systems, and bridging the economic disparity between the two Koreas. This paper aims to analyze these anticipated economic issues and propose systematic and phased solutions. Specifically, it discusses the objective estimation of unification costs and funding strategies, suggests effective integration methods for the disparate economic systems of the two Koreas, and identifies policy tasks to reduce economic disparities. The paper reviews existing studies on unification costs, explores strategies for the balanced development of South and North Korean economies through industrial restructuring and gradual transition to a market economy, and proposes concrete measures such as the expansion of North Korea's social overhead capital (SOC) and the development of human capital. The goal is to establish a solid economic foundation for peaceful unification and create opportunities for the economic resurgence of the Korean Peninsula.

An Export and Import Effect Analysis among the Eurozone Members of Using the Euro (EU 내 단일통화(Euro) 사용이 회원국들 간 수출.입에 미치는 효과 분석)

  • Kang, Bo-Kyung;Choi, Young-Doo
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.31-47
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    • 2012
  • The Eurozone was launched to set a goal on using the single currency perfectly in 1999. Using the Euro could get rid of exchange cost and cost of Foreign exchange risk management which was approximately 1% of each member's GDP. It was possible that members has maintained a stable level of inflation and stimulate investment and employment with low interest rate. In addition, they could lead to economic growth and investment as well as increase the Euro demand in financial market. Especially, members has used the Euro as the method of payment on trade each other so that the volume of trade among the Eurozone members has increased continuously which was called "the effect of single market." This paper analyzes the correlation between using the Euro and members' export/import by using random effect estimation and fixed effect estimation. As a result, Eurozone members can get export decreasing effect of 4.68% and import increasing effect of 10.5% respectively on average by using the Euro.

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Recipient Countries' Financial Development and the Effectiveness of ODA (금융시장발전과 공적개발원조의 효과성: 양자간·다자간 원조를 중심으로)

  • Ahn, Hyeonmi;Park, Danbee
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of Offcial Development Assistance (ODA) in recipient countries' economy. ODA is designed to mitigate poverty and stimulate economic growth in the developing countries. We classify total ODA into bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA depending on the number of donor countries. If the ODA flows from one donor country to one recipient country, it is classified as bilateral ODA. If the multiple countries simultaneously become donor countries through the international organizations such as United Nations and World Bank, it is classified as multilateral ODA. This paper compares the effect of bilateral ODA and multilateral ODA in determining recipient countries' economic development, and tries to provide policy implications to Korean ODA. Research design, data, and methodology - Our primary explanatory variables are bilateral and multilateral ODA. Private credit in recipient countries is adopted as additional explanatory variables to capture the level of financial development in recipient countries. We measure the ODA effectiveness using economic growth and quality of life of the recipient countries as the dependent variable. We collect 142 recipient countries' data from OECD statistics, during the period from 1970-2014. Panel least squares estimation with country fixed effect is employed as the empirical model. Results - Our results support that ODA variable has a negatively significant impact on recipient countries' economic growth, while it is positively correlated with human development index. Recipient countries' private credit is positively correlated with economic growth and human development index. The interaction variable of ODA and financial development turns out to be significant in general. We find that the positive effect of ODA depends on recipient countries' financial market development and this effect is stronger in multilateral aid than bilateral one. Conclusions - From the analysis, we have confirmed that the recipient countries financial development is the necessity condition to achieve positive effect of ODA. Based on these results, we suggest that Korean government should increase the share of multilateral funding and pay attention to recipient countries' financial market development to maximize the effectiveness of ODA.

Estimation of the Level of Sustainable Development in Kazakhstan Regions and Recommendation for its Increase

  • Baimukhamedova, Gulzada S.;Nurlanova, Nailya K.;Akhmetova, Sharzada
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate existing world economic science theories and concepts of sustainable development as well as create original system of criteria and indicators to assess potential and conditions for sustainable development from a regional perspective and based on the above justify proposals for public authorities to improve methods of economic regulation for regional development. To achieve the goal evolution process of existing theories and concepts of sustainable development and "green growth" have been studied in terms of its adaptation to the spatial development of Kazakhstan, comparative dynamics of natural resources consumption in the Asia-Pacific region and Kazakhstan were investigated as well. Methodology. World best theory and practice methods for assessment of the level of sustainable development of the country and some of its territories were also studied. We selected the best system of criteria and indicators for assessment of economic, social and environmental sustainability of regional systems. Methods offered in this article are based on traditional and new factors of economic development and conditions for operation of regional systems. Indicators are chosen with a glance to basic goals for future development of regions in Kazakhstan. It is recommended to use two levels of methodology offered by author, namely national and regional, and at the local level later (districts, municipalities, cities). The results. Method offered by the author has been tested based on materials and statistics of regions in Kazakhstan. Suitability and usability of the proposed system of criteria and indicators for measuring of economic, social and environmental sustainability of regional systems was proved. Based on this analysis it was found out that there are regions in Kazakhstan that differ from each other by most of key indicators of sustainable regional development and this tendency is increasing. Conclusions and recommendations. As a result of this analysis, the authors have substantiated a number of proposals on methods of analysis to be used, improvement of methods of regional development, implementation of institutional reforms, as well as improvement of regional statistics. This article provides recommendations that can be successfully used in the management practices by public authorities to implement a new regional strategy focused on sustainable development in future.

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