• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic activity

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우리나라 고령층의 경제활동 수준 예측 - 머신러닝 기법과 연계한 예측조합법을 중심으로 - (Prediction on the Economic Activity Level of the Elderly in South Korea - Focusing on Machine Learning Method Combined with Forecast Combination -)

  • 김정우
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제13권5호
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 급속한 고령화 시대에서 우리나라의 고령층의 경제활동 수준을 다양한 머신러닝 기법으로 정확히 예측하고자 하였다. 고령층의 경제활동 수준과 기존 연구들은 고령층의 삶의 만족도, 사회보장제도 등과 연관된 인과성 검증을 중심으로 이루어진 데 반해, 본 연구는 다양한 머신러닝 기법으로 고령층의 경제활동 수준을 예측하였으며, 특히 예측조합법을 함께 사용함으로써 예측의 안정성을 도모하였다. 60세 이상의 경제활동참가율, 취업률 등을 종속변수로 하고 가구 특성, 소득, 평균임금 등을 설명변수로 설정하여 서로 다른 특성을 지닌 5가지의 머신러닝 기법과 2가지의 예측조합법을 적용하여 예측결과들을 비교하였다. 분석 결과, 종속변수별, 예측구간별로 예측성능이 높은 머신러닝 기법 및 예측조합법은 상이하였으나, 예측의 안정성 측면에서는 예측조합법이 상대적으로 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라, 본 연구는 고령층의 경제활동 수준을 정확히 예측하고 예측의 안정성을 도모하여 정책적 관점에서도 실용성을 제고한다고 볼 수 있다.

종합지역접근성 측정모형의 개발 (Development of a Numerical Model for Measuring a Comprehensive Regional Accessibility)

  • 노정현;류재영
    • 지역연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 1994
  • Despite of being the criteria to choose the efficient and reasonable alternatioves inactual planning process, the measure of accessibility rarely has applied to practices because each model has unexplicity concept of it and limitations in itself. Accessibility implies transportation system which offers opportunity of movement to overcome spatial separation and, simultaneously, land-use system which represents the location of each activity. Therefore, measures of accessibility have to represent the attractiveness of locations and the interactions of activities, that is, land-use and transportation, with an index. Considering that urban activity is based on the economic efficiency, costs and benfits, accessibility means the economic efficiency of the location of activity and the travel in view of land-use and transport repectively. Combined models that measure accessibility with considering land-use and tranportation simultaneously depend on reasonable concepts, but it is too simple for them to explain the accessibility which resulted from complex interaction of urban activities. Combined urban activity model developed by Kim (1983) and Rho (1989) explains the characteristics of activities in each regions and urban strcture in economic general equilibrium states in the long term of urban system. This model measures a regional accessibility with a dual variable which means the location surplus. This is a more systematic and comprehensive model for calculating the regional accessibility because it considers the interaction of each activity in urban system. It needs efforts to apply the accessibility index as a criterion in actual planning process through finding and quantitification of other explanatory variables to measure it in combined urban activity model.

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사별 후 혼자 사는 노인1인가구의 특성 -지역별 분포와 사회경제적 특성, 결정요인을 중심으로- (Characteristics of the One-Person Households of the Elderly during Widowhood -Regional Distribution, Socio-Economic Characteristics, and Determinants of Living Arrangement-)

  • 송유진
    • 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2007
  • This research challenges the general notion of one-person households of the elderly during widowhood as impoverished, isolated, and vulnerable. Recognizing a high potential vulnerability, however, this research attempts to describe the diverse composition of one-person households of the elderly. For this purpose, relying on 2% sample data from the 2000 census, it examines regional distribution, socio-economic characteristics, and determinants of one-person households of the elderly during widowhood. Socio-economic characteristics of one-person households of the elderly differ by region. Jeju island is distinct in terms of sex and age distribution, and residence area of children. In general, rates of economic activity and self-subsistence are higher in provinces than in cities. Compared to the elderly living with family, the elderly living alone show high rates of economic activity, self-subsistence, and capability of physical activity. Results of logistic regression analysis of determinants of living arrangement are consistent with those of descriptive statistics. Those who are economically active and able to move around without assistance tend to live alone after the death of a spouse. Number of sons and living in an urban area are negatively associated with living alone, whereas females are more likely than males to live alone. According to the separate analysis by age, the positive effect of economic activity is greater in the oldest of the old than in other age groups. Those who possess high educational attainment tend to live alone when they are 80 and older, unlike other age groups. Based on these findings, this paper finds that one-person households of the elderly nay not always be the most vulnerable group, and are diverse in terms of socioeconomic characteristics.

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디지털 컨버전스 세대의 미래경제활동 특성에 관한 연구 (An Exploratory Study on Future Economic Activity of Digital Convergence Generation)

  • 김연정;박기호
    • 한국IT서비스학회지
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2011
  • This research focus on the economic activity as consumer and producer traits of future customers in the convergence age. We assess level of convergence for digital devices and services respectively by questionnaire survey and interview for 14 professions. And then, for evaluating convergence level and usage of digital services of each respondents, we conducted the questionnaire survey for 343 samples. Findings of our research hold that the group who showed higher level of convergence tends to use the socialized digital services more. Convergence generation were heavy users in appstore on smart-phone and wireless game and more participating. In digital service area, facebook/cyworld, twitter, UCC, portal, internet community in digital service. Convergence generation are global network communication, buying decision making activity, actively opinion expression, prosumer attitude, dependency on digital device, experience based purchase behavior, enthusiastic information sharing.

우리나라 청소년의 신체활동과 사회경제적 변수와의 관련성 (Association between the Physical Activity of Korean Adolescents and Socioeconomic Status)

  • 오인환;이고은;오창모;최경식;최봉근;최중명;윤태영
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제42권5호
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    • pp.305-314
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    • 2009
  • Objectives : The physical activity of Korean adolescents and its distribution based on social characteristics have not yet been fully assessed. This study intends to reveal the distribution of physical activity by its subgroups and offer possible explanatory variables. Methods : The 3rd Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey was analyzed for this study. The appropriateness of physical activity was defined by Korea s Health Plan 2010 and physical inactivity was assessed independently. Family affluence scale, parents education levels, subjective economic status, grade, and school location were considered explanatory variables. All statistical analysis was conducted using SAS ver. 9.1. Results : The proportion of participants engaging in vigorous physical activity was high in males (41.6%), at a low grade (38.5%), within the high family affluence scale group (35.5%). The distribution of participants engaging in moderate physical activity showed similar patterns, but the overall proportion was lower (9.8%). Low family affluence and students with lower subjective economic status reported a higher prevalence of physical inactivity. In multiple logistic regression analysis for physical activity, significant factors included family affluence scale (p<0.05). For physical inactivity, family affluence scale, parents education levels, and subjective economic status were included as significant factors (p<0.05). Conclusions : The results suggest that the physical activity and inactivity of adolescents may be affected by socioeconomic variables, such as family affluence scale. This implies the need to take proper measures to address these socio-economic inequalities.

독거노인의 행복과 경제활동의 참여욕구에 대한 융합 연구 (A Convergence study on the happiness and participating desire of economic activity among elderly living alone)

  • 이병임;김두리;임효남;김광환
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제9권8호
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구의 목적은 D시에 거주하는 독거노인들을 대상으로 행복과 경제활동의 참여욕구의 관계를 알아보고자 하였다. 연구방법은 질적 연구방법을 사용하였다. 연구 참여자는 D시 노인복지관에 다니거나 복지관에서 봉사활동을 하는 독거 노인을 대상으로 하였다. 연구결과는 두 가지로 요약된다. 첫째, 독거노인들은 복지관에서 실시하는 다양한 프로그램을 즐기고 다른 사람들과 어울리는 것 자체 그리고 가족의 건강이 행복의 요인으로 나타났다. 둘째, 독거노인들은 경제활동 참여에 대한 욕구의 차이가 컸다. 꼭 일을 해서 경제적인 수입을 원하는 노인, 경제적으로 여유로운 노인, 그리고 경제 형편이 어렵지는 않지만 소일거리로 경제활동을 원하는 노인으로 나뉜다. 경제활동에 대한 욕구는 대부분 높게 나타났지만 신체적인 한계를 고려해서 하루에 2-3시간 정도의 활동을 원했다. 소득의 경우도 소득을 간절히 원하는 경우와 현재의 생활비가 충분하다는 반응이 나타났다. 본 연구는 독거노인의 경제적인 측면과 심리적인 측면의 제도적인 지원정책을 선순환적으로 마련할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다.

도시 근교 농촌마을 경제활동의 다양성에 관한 연구: 경기도 양평군 서종면의 사례 (A Study on the Divergence of Economic Activities between Rural Villages in Rural-Urban Ares : The Cases of Two Villages of Seojong-Myeon in Yangpyeong County)

  • 고경호;김태연
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.289-306
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    • 2019
  • The study is a comparative analysis of the differences in economic activities of two rural villages near the city. It is the general notion that rural villages near large cities lose the characteristics of traditional rural villages and change the areas with urban characteristics due to the influence of urbanization. The survey also showed that Munho 4-ri and Jeongbae 1-ri in Gyeonggi-do have urban characteristics, such as population growth, agricultural activity reduction and non-agricultural activity increase, and community activity reduction. However, they also found that there were important differences in the future development patterns of the two villages. In other words, the reasons and purposes of migration of people moving to the two villages, the differences in the system of economic activity in the villages, and the differences in community cooperation are emerging. Therefore, the study shows that policies to develop rural villages near cities need to be implemented differently based on the characteristics of those villages.

지역정보화와 장· 노년층의 노인사회활동(노인일자리) 지원사업 참여의지에 관한 연구 - 경제활동을 조절변수로- (A Study of Local Informatization and Elderly Social Activity(Employment) Programs Participatory Intention: Economic Activity as a Moderating Variable)

  • 이미숙;김희섭;홍순구
    • 한국산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구의 목적은 장 노년층의 노인 사회활동 지원사업 참여의지에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하고 연구 결과에 대한 함축적 의미를 파악하고자 함이다. 이를 위해 먼저, 국내외 노인 사회활동 지원사업과 지역정보화에 대한 선행연구를 한 다음, 장 노년층의 노인 사회활동 지원사업 참여의지에 영향을 미치는 요인을 지역정보화 만족도, 건강 만족도, 경제 만족도, 및 인적관계 만족도로 구성된 설문항목을 설정하였다. 데이터 수집을 위해 정보화교육에 참가한 경험이 있는 전국의 장 노년층을 대상으로 방문설문을 하거나 온라인 설문을 실시하였다. 333개의 유효표본을 통해 분석한 결과, 지역정보화 만족도와 건강 만족도가 노인 사회활동 지원사업 참여의지에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 경제활동을 조절변수로 하여 경제활동을 하고 있는 집단과 경제활동을 하고 있지 않은 집단으로 나누어 분석한 결과, 경제활동을 하고 있는 집단에서는 건강만 허락한다면 지속적 참여의지가 있는 것으로 나타났고, 경제활동을 하고 있지 않은 집단에서는 건강 만족도뿐 만 아니라 지역정보화 만족도까지 중요한 영향요인으로 나타났다. 따라서 지역경제활동 활성화를 위한 지역혁신과 노인 사회활동 지원사업에 참여의지가 있는 장 노년층을 위하여 지역정보화가 선행되어야 하고 또한 지역정보화 만족도를 향상시켜야 할 것이다.

How to Recover From the Great Recession: The Case of a Two-Sector Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Capital

  • Jeon, Jong-Kyou
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.161-206
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    • 2013
  • Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

Organizational-Economic Mechanism of Attracting Investment Resources in the Innovative Development of Regions in Teams of Sustainable Development

  • Krasnonosova, Olena;Perepeliukova, Olena;Papp, Vasyl;Doronina, Maya;Romaniuk, Mykhailo
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.376-384
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    • 2022
  • The article considers the features of the organizational-economic mechanism of attracting investment resources in the innovative development of regions in terms of sustainable development. Factors influencing the investment activity of regions in terms of sustainable development, including: institutional structure, intellectual capital, level of innovation infrastructure, business development, financial and credit component, level of human resources development, information environment, production development, environmental component. Factors influencing the attraction of investment resources in the regions are identified. The dynamics of changes in the volume of capital investments and foreign direct investment in Ukraine is analyzed. The regional features of the distribution of capital investments in the conditions of sustainable development are revealed. The essence of the main principles on the basis of which the organizational - economic mechanism of attraction of investment resources in innovative development of regions in the conditions of sustainable development should be formed is analyzed. A set of measures to regulate the investment processes of the regions has been identified. The mechanism of attraction of investment resources in innovative development of regions in the conditions of sustainable development is outlined. The results of activity of separate Agencies of regional development for 2020 in the direction of investment and innovation activity and increase of level of investment attractiveness of regions are analyzed. Important prerequisites for the effective implementation of the organizational-economic mechanism for attracting investment resources in the innovative development of regions in terms of sustainable development are identified. The main directions of directing the efforts of the organizational-economic mechanism to ensure the attraction of investment resources in the innovative development of regions in the context of increasing the level of investment activity in the regional aspect are substantiated.