• Title/Summary/Keyword: econometric results

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An Energy Demand Forecasting Model for the Residential and Commercial Sector (민수부문의 에너지원별 수요예측모형)

  • 유병우
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 1983
  • This paper presents a generalized fuel choice model in which restrictive constraints on cross-price coefficients as Baughman-Joskow-FEA Logit Model need not be imposed, but all demand elasticities are uniquely determined. The model is applied to estimating aggregate energy demand and fuel choices for the residential and commercial sector. The structural equations are estimated by a generalized least squares procedure using national-level EPB, KDI, BK, KRIS, MOER data for 1965 and 1980, and other related reports. The econometric results support the argument that “third-price” and “fourth-price” coefficients should not be constrained in estimating relative market share models. Furthermore, by using this fuel choice model, it has forecasted energy demands by fuel sources in, the residential and commercial sector until 1991. The results are turned out good estimates to compare with existing demands forecasted from other institutes.

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The Study on The Macroeconomic Factors of Marine Crime (해상범죄의 거시경제적 요인에 관한 연구)

  • 나호수
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2002
  • The relatively rapid rising trend of crime rates in marine situations leads to social concerns in Korea. This study reviews some theoretical backgrounds of the economics of crime and applies econometric models to Korean marine crimes. This research finds that there is a negative relationship between marine crime rates and unemployment rates and a positive relationship between the price level and marine crimes in Korea. The other finding results are that unemployment elasticities are higher in the 1980s and price elasticities are higher in th 1990s in comparison with the results of the other periods. This findings are incompatible with the previous theoretical researches in advanced countries. These findings show that In rapidly growing economy, marine crime occurrence is proportional to marine economic activity frequency. This result may reflect that marine crimes are different from land crimes.

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Innovation and Productivity: A Case of Australian Business

  • Yoon, Young-Kon;Yoon, Kyung-Joo
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.75-79
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    • 2015
  • This paper investigates two important relationships relating to firm behaviour and performance using econometric methods. First, the relationship between product market competition and innovation is examined, and then the association between innovation and productivity is separately investigated. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Business Longitudinal Database are used in the analysis. For every measure of competition considered except one, the results of the modelling are consistent with an anti-Schumpeterian relationship between competition and innovation - that is, firms appear more likely to innovate if they face stronger competition. The results examining the relationship between innovation and productivity, although weaker than those between competition and innovation, suggest that innovation is associated with better productivity outcomes.

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Unbiasedness or Statistical Efficiency: Comparison between One-stage Tobit of MLE and Two-step Tobit of OLS

  • Park, Sun-Young
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2003
  • This paper tried to construct statistical and econometric models on the basis of economic theory in order to discuss the issue of statistical efficiency and unbiasedness including the sample selection bias correcting problem. Comparative analytical tool were one stage Tobit of Maximum Likelihood estimation and Heckman's two-step Tobit of Ordinary Least Squares. The results showed that the adequacy of model for the analysis on demand and choice, we believe that there is no big difference in explanatory variables between the first selection model and the second linear probability model. Since the Lambda, the self- selectivity correction factor, in the Type II Tobit is not statistically significant, there is no self-selectivity in the Type II Tobit model, indicating that Type I Tobit model would give us better explanation in the demand for and choice which is less complicated statistical method rather than type II model.

Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model

  • Nam, Si-Kyung;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2008
  • There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

경쟁적 가격 행동과 시장구조분석: 한국 이동통신 시장에의 응용

  • 전덕빈;김예구
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.7-10
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    • 2003
  • After the launch of PCS in 1997, price competition between five mobile carriers was so severe that the Korean mobile telephony market achieved a remarkable subscriber base growth. But in that optimal pricing behavior depends on how each fm is likely to react to other frims'choice of price, it is very interesting to analyze competitive pricing behavior and understand market structure in terms of pricing competitiveness in the Korean mobile telecommunications market. In this paper, we use structural econometric models in New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) framework. But previously used models in this framework generally assume that market size is fixed and that all firms maximize their profits. To fit in with the Korean mobile telephony market, we derive various models in using NML market share model under the assumptions that market size varies with industry's total attractions and that firms maximize their market share. In this paper, we find that the model under market share maximization with the assumption that market size varies with total attraction shows the best fitting results.

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An Empirical Analysis of Price Elasticity of the Demand for Medical Care Services in Korean National Health Insurance Program (의료보험하에서의 의료수요의 가격탄력성에 관한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Chun-Bae;Lee, Do-Sung;Kim, Han-Joong;Sohn, Myong-Sei
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.28 no.2 s.50
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    • pp.450-461
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    • 1995
  • This paper tested by using Micro TSP, an empirical econometric analysis to approve officially a hypothesis of price elasticity of the demand for medical care services in Korean national medical insurance and the economic effect of health care delivery system with time-series datas of Medical Insurance Statistical Yearbook$(1981\sim1993)$. The results suggest that the Korean medical insurance system shows moral hazard due to the change of coinsurance and the economic effect according to intervention of the health care delivery system, but it is different by insurers regardless of the same structure of the medical insurance scheme.

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Estimating the Biological Growth Function of Korean Anchovy: A Maximum Entropy Approach (한국 연근해 멸치자원량 추정 - Maximum Entropy기법의 응용 -)

  • Kim, Gi Cheol;Kwon, Oh Sang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.285-309
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    • 2000
  • One of the main issues in natural resource economics is estimating the amount of stock and the biological growth functions of renewable natural resources. Since the stock level is not directly observed the usual econometric approaches cannot be employed for this purpose. The maximum entropy approach has been suggested as a useful alternative to estimate the dynamic model of natural resource use. This study estimates the stock and the growth function of Korean anchovy using the data for yield and yield efforts. The results show that the current level of anchovy yield exceeds its maximum sustainable yield, which implies that the stock will decrease substantially over time.

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Microfinance and Poverty Alleviation: An Empirical Reflection

  • Mago, Stephen
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to carry out an empirical analysis of the link that exists between microfinance and poverty alleviation. The analysis is driven by literature searches on empirical works done by different researchers in different contexts. Qualitative research methodology was adopted, following a desktop approach. An empirical literature review took a centre stage in this investigation. An analysis of empirical works shows that microfinance enhances poverty alleviation despite the challenges such as the Indian Andhra Pradesh crisis. The paper is limited to a review of empirical sources of literature. A field survey, supported by an econometric analysis would have helped to generate robust results. This paper attempts to bring together the empirical works that were done in different contexts to shed light on the important relationship between microfinance and poverty. Many research works on microfinance depend upon personal anecdotes, thus this present paper attempts to compile the scattered empirical findings on microfinance and poverty alleviation.

A System Dynamics Model for Quantitative Analysis of Patent Systems (특허 시스템의 정량 분석을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모형)

  • Yoon, Min-Ho
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, a system dynamics model for explaining the application, grant and maintenance of patents is provided. Existing literatures regarding the patent application system are mostly econometric approaches that consider only economic variables such as GDP and R&D. The model in this paper includes patent variables such as disputes as well as economic variables. Moreover, we show that the model can be used in not only a quantitative prediction but also policy experiment. The results of the policy experiment shows that strengthening protection of patents tend to increase the propensity to patent more than R&D investment.