• Title/Summary/Keyword: econometric results

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Development of the Roundwood Demand Prediction Model

  • Kim, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.95 no.2
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    • pp.203-208
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    • 2006
  • This study compared the roundwood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and time-series models using Korean data. The roundwood was divided into softwood and hardwood by species. The econometric model of roundwood demand was specified with four explanatory variables; own price, substitute price, gross domestic product, dummy. The time-series model was specified with lagged endogenous variable. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in roundwood demand in the late 1990's in the case of softwood roundwood, and the boom of plywood export in the late 1970's in the case of hardwood roundwood. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Square Errors(RMSE). The results showed that the softwood roundwood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by time-series model. However, the hardwood roundwood demand prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using econometric and time-series model.

Development of the Plywood Demand Prediction Model

  • Kim, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.97 no.2
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    • pp.140-143
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    • 2008
  • This study compared the plywood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and vector autoregressive models using Korean data. The econometric model of plywood demand was specified with three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area, dummy. The vector autoregressive model was specified with lagged endogenous variable, own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in plywood consumption in the late 1990's. The prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Theil's Inequality Coefficient. The results showed that the plywood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by vector autoregressive model.

Analysis of Determinant Factors of Land Price in Rural Area Using a Hedonic Land Price Model and Spatial Econometric Models (헤도닉분석기법과 공간계량경제모형을 이용한 농촌지역 지가의 영향인자 분석)

  • Suh, Kyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.11 no.3 s.28
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2005
  • Land prices reflect not only the uses of land, but the potential uses as well(Plantinga, 2002) so land values can be applied to very effective indices for deciding regional status and growing potential. The purpose of this study is to deduce determinant factors of regional land prices. Principal determinants of regional land prices are analyzed with a hedonic technique and spatial econometric models based on 2001 statistic data of Korea except large cities. The results provide the followings. 1. The spatial effect of rural regions are very little with adjacent regions. 2. The common index of land price is population density and other determinant factors are different depending on land uses.

A New Interpretation Approach using Tobit Analysis : Simulations based on Type I Tobit of Amemiya - Focused on Childcare Services -

  • Park, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 2001
  • The purposes of this study were first to construct statistical and econometric models based on Amemiya\`s Type I Tobit mainly addressing the issue of statistical efficiency; second to explore income, price, and curvilinear age effects on the explained variable in order to illustrates its statistical marginal effects related to econometric issues; finally to provide invaluable insight for graphical simulations as a new interpretation approach using Tobit analysis. Results indicated that interpretation for the mean marginal effects of three possible cases of dependent variable was more likely to be evident to understand Tobit results compared to conventional analysis only using latent variable, beta. Results also revealed that prediction value of dependent variable can be possibly and easily projected by the independent variable changed whereas only beta value can not illustrate its projection as independent variables'changes.

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Analysis of Functional Autocorrelation and Development of Functional Econometric Model through Urban Interactions - Focusing on Economic Growth of Small and Medium Sized Cities - (도시 상호작용에 따른 기능적 자기상관분석 및 기능계량경제모형 개발 - 중소도시의 경제성장을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dohyeong;Woo, Myungje
    • Journal of Korea Planning Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2019
  • Korean government has implemented policies to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium sized cities. However, since it is often difficult to enhance the competitiveness through individual projects, many local governments in metropolitan areas are working together to pursue local growth. On the other hand, small and medium sized cities that are not included in metropolitan areas due to their spatial limitations have difficulties in implementing effective growth policies. Given this background, the purpose of this study is to identify the functional correlation based on urban interactions and develop functional econometric model for the economic growth of small and medium sized cities. This study uses spatial econometrics models and functional weight matrix to identify the effects of functional networks on small and medium sized cities. The results show the effect of functional networks on the growth of small and medium sized cities and provide policy implications for regional spatial planning that addresses effective management of small and medium sized cities.

Comparison of Stochastic Frontier Models in Application to Analysis on R&D and Production Efficiency (R&D와 생산효율성 관계에 관한 계량모형 비교연구: 확률적 생산변경모형을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Young Hoon
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.103-130
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    • 2011
  • This paper intends to provide applied economists which study the effects of research and development with valuable information on econometric model selection. It includes extensive discussion on econometric models which have been applied for the study on the relationship between research and development and productivity. In particular, it compares various stochastic production frontier models which have been developed recently. The discussion decomposes them into models with scaling property and the ones with nonscaling property as well as models with monotonic and nonmonotonic relationships between research and development and productivity. Finally, this paper applies the models to two different panel data sets (firm level data and country level data) and compare estimation results from competing econometric models.

The Analysis on the Determinants of Energy Efficiency Changes in the Industrial Sector (산업부분 에너지 효율 변화요인 분석)

  • Na, In-Gang;Lee, Sung-Keun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.255-286
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, it is tried to combine the decomposition method and econometric analysis for the extension of the decomposition method. Since two approaches approach the energy efficiency problem in the different perspectives, it is believed that it is hard to reconcile the results of two approaches. In the results of energy intensity effect analysis with the econometric method, it is found that the increase in the energy price results in the improvement of energy intensity effect. In enconometric analysis of energy efficiency, the coefficient of a time trend measured as a proxy of energy efficiency is significant and has a negative effect on the energy consumption. This finding implies the energy efficiency improves very slowly over time. In addition, the directions of energy efficiency improvement in the decomposition method are consistent with those in the econometric analysis in four industries. This finding indicates that two methods may be in complementary cooperation for the analysis of energy efficiency. Therefore, it is needed the efforts to seek the complementarity between two methods for the enhancement of academic and policy implications.

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An Estimation of Korea's Import Demand Function for Fisheries Using Cointegration Analysis (공적분분석을 이용한 우리나라 수산물 수입함수 추정)

  • 김기수;김우경
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 1998
  • This paper tries to estimate Korea's import demand function for fisheries using cointegration analysis. The estimation function consists of one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries(FTIW) and two independent variables-relative price(RP) between importable and domestic products and real income(GDP). As it has been empirically found out that almost all of time series of macro-variables such as GDP, price index are nonstationary, existing studies which ignore this fact need to be reexamined. Conventional econometric method can not analyze nonstationary time series in level. To perform the analysis, time series should be differenciated until stationarity is guaranteed. Unfortunately, the difference method removes the long run element of data, and so leads to difficulties of interpretation. But according to new developed econometric theory, cointegration approach could solve these problems. Therefore this paper proceeds the estimation on the basis of cointegration analysis, because the quartly variables from 1988 to 1997 used in the model is found out to be nonstationary. The estimation results show that all of the variables are statistically significant. Therefore Korea's import demand for fisheries has been strongly affected by the variation of real income and the relative price.

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Sectoral Price Divergence between Korea and Japan

  • Moon, Seongman
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.493-517
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    • 2016
  • This paper examines the persistent properties of 12 sectoral relative prices between Korea and Japan obtained following the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP) over the period of 1985-2016. Applying a new econometric method developed by Pesaran which controls for the cross-section dependence in a panel, we are not able to reject the hypothesis that the sectoral real exchange rates contain a common stochastic trend. On the other hand, the well-known panel unit root tests such as the IPS and LLC tests widely used by previous studies strongly reject the unit root hypothesis. Since the error term of the regression for our panel exhibits significant cross-section dependence, these opposite results justify that the use of the new econometric method is appropriate.

Econometric Analysis of the Difference in Medical Use among Income Groups in Korea: 2015 (한국의 소득수준 간 의료이용 차이의 계량적 분석: 2015)

  • Oh, Youngho
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.339-351
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    • 2018
  • Background: The purpose of this study is to estimate empirically whether there is a difference in medical use among income groups, and if so, how much. This study applies econometric model to the most recent year of Korean Medical Panel, 2015. The model consists of outpatient service and inpatient service models. Methods: The probit model is applied to the model which indicate whether or not the medical care has been used. Two step estimation method using maximum likelihood estimation is applied to the models of outpatient visits, hospital days, and outpatient and inpatient out-of-pocket cost models, with disconnected selection problems. Results: The results show that there was the inequality favorable to the low income group in medical care use. However, after controlling basic medical needs, there were no inequities among income groups in the outpatient visit model and the model of probability of inpatient service use. However, there were inequities favorable to the upper income groups in the models of probability of outpatient service use and outpatient out-of-pocket cost and the models of the number of length of stay and inpatient out-of-pocket cost. In particular, it shows clearly how the difference in outpatient service and inpatient service utilizations by income groups when basic medical needs are controlled. Conclusion: This means that the income contributes significantly to the degree of inequality in outpatient and inpatient care services. Therefore, the existence of medical care use difference under the same medical needs among income groups is a problem in terms of equity of medical care use, so great efforts should be made to establish policies to improve equity among income groups.