• 제목/요약/키워드: earthquake risk assessment

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취약도 해석을 통한 빌딩구조물의 내진성능 비교 및 평가 (Fragility Analysis for Evaluation and Comparison of Seismic Performance of Building Structures)

  • 박주남;최은수
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2007
  • 지진하중에 의한 구조물의 손상 및 피해는 지진에 의한 동적 하중을 고려한 구조물의 내진설계의 도입을 통하여 저감시킬 수 있으며, 이 때 내진설계 도입으로 인한 구조물의 내진성능 향상 및 그에 필요한 비용을 동시에 고려하여 내진설계 도입의 적합성을 검증해야한다. 본 연구에서는 내진성능의 확률적 평가를 위해서 지진하중과 구조물 자체에 내재되어 있는 불확실성을 고려하여 빌딩구조물의 지진취약도를 작성하였으며 시뮬레이션의 효율성을 높이기 위한 Latin Hypercube 샘플링 기법을 도입하여 해석을 수행하였다. 내진 설계 도입의 필요성 검증을 위해서는 구조물의 물리적 내진성능 이외에도 구조물의 사회적, 경제적 기능 및 가치에 대한 고려가 필요하며 이러한 요소를 고려한 의사결정해석 절차를 등가비용모델의 예를 들어 제시하였다.

Uncertainty reduction of seismic fragility of intake tower using Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

  • Alam, Jahangir;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제63권1호
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2017
  • The fundamental goal of this study is to minimize the uncertainty of the median fragility curve and to assess the structural vulnerability under earthquake excitation. Bayesian Inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been presented for efficient collapse response assessment of the independent intake water tower. The intake tower is significantly used as a diversion type of the hydropower station for maintaining power plant, reservoir and spillway tunnel. Therefore, the seismic fragility assessment of the intake tower is a pivotal component for estimating total system risk of the reservoir. In this investigation, an asymmetrical independent slender reinforced concrete structure is considered. The Bayesian Inference method provides the flexibility to integrate the prior information of collapse response data with the numerical analysis results. The preliminary information of risk data can be obtained from various sources like experiments, existing studies, and simplified linear dynamic analysis or nonlinear static analysis. The conventional lognormal model is used for plotting the fragility curve using the data from time history simulation and nonlinear static pushover analysis respectively. The Bayesian Inference approach is applied for integrating the data from both analyses with the help of MCMC simulation. The method achieves meaningful improvement of uncertainty associated with the fragility curve, and provides significant statistical and computational efficiency.

Scaling of ground motions from Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes

  • Pavel, Florin;Vacareanu, Radu
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.505-516
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    • 2016
  • This paper evaluates the scaling of ground motions recorded from nine intermediate-depth earthquakes produced in the Vrancea seismic zone in Romania. The considered ground motion database consists of 363 horizontal recordings obtained on soil classes B and C (according to Eurocode 8). An analysis of the inter- and intra-event spectral accelerations is performed in order to gain information regarding the magnitude and distance scaling of the Vrancea ground motions. The analyses reveal a significant influence of the earthquake magnitude and focal depth on the distance scaling and different magnitude and distance scaling for the two soil classes. A linear magnitude and distance scaling is inferred from the results for the range of magnitudes $5.2{\leq}M_W{\leq}7.1$. The results obtained are checked through stochastic simulations and the influence of the stress drop and kappa values on the ground motion levels is assessed. In addition, five ground motion models which were tested in other studies using recordings from Vrancea earthquakes are analyzed in order to evaluate their corresponding host stress drop and kappa. The results show generally a direct connection between the host kappa values and the host stress drop values. Moreover, all the ground motion models depict magnitude dependent host kappa and stress drop levels.

Modifier parameters and quantifications for seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete buildings

  • Oumedour, Amira;Lazzali, Farah
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, some studies have identified and quantified factors that can increase or decrease the seismic vulnerability of buildings. These modifier factors, related to the building characteristics and condition, are taken into account in the vulnerability assessment, by means of a numerical estimation resulting from the quantification of these modifiers through vulnerability indexes. However, views have differed on the definition and the quantification of modifiers. In this study, modifier parameters and scores of the Risk-UE Level 1 method are adjusted based on the Algerian seismic code recommendations and the reviews proposed in the literature. The adjusted modifiers and scores are applied to reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Boumerdes city, in order to assess probable seismic damage. Comparison between estimated damage and observed damage caused by the 2003 Boumerdes earthquake is done, with the objective to (i) validate the model involving influence of the modifier parameters on the seismic vulnerability, and (ii) to define the relationship between modifiers and damage. This research may help planners in improving seismic regulations and reducing vulnerability of existing buildings.

Accelerated Monte Carlo analysis of flow-based system reliability through artificial neural network-based surrogate models

  • Yoon, Sungsik;Lee, Young-Joo;Jung, Hyung-Jo
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2020
  • Conventional Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for seismic risk assessment of water networks often require excessive computational time costs due to the hydraulic analysis. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network-based surrogate model was proposed to efficiently evaluate the flow-based system reliability of water distribution networks. The surrogate model was constructed with appropriate training parameters through trial-and-error procedures. Furthermore, a deep neural network with hidden layers and neurons was composed for the high-dimensional network. For network training, the input of the neural network was defined as the damage states of the k-dimensional network facilities, and the output was defined as the network system performance. To generate training data, random sampling was performed between earthquake magnitudes of 5.0 and 7.5, and hydraulic analyses were conducted to evaluate network performance. For a hydraulic simulation, EPANET-based MATLAB code was developed, and a pressure-driven analysis approach was adopted to represent an unsteady-state network. To demonstrate the constructed surrogate model, the actual water distribution network of A-city, South Korea, was adopted, and the network map was reconstructed from the geographic information system data. The surrogate model was able to predict network performance within a 3% relative error at trained epicenters in drastically reduced time. In addition, the accuracy of the surrogate model was estimated to within 3% relative error (5% for network performance lower than 0.2) at different epicenters to verify the robustness of the epicenter location. Therefore, it is concluded that ANN-based surrogate model can be utilized as an alternative model for efficient seismic risk assessment to within 5% of relative error.

Loss Estimation in Southeast Korea from a Scenario Earthquake using the Deterministic Method in HAZUS

  • Kim, Kwang-Hee;Kang, Su-Young
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2009
  • Strong ground motion attenuation relationship represents a comprehensive trend of ground shakings at sites with distances from the source, geology, local soil conditions, and others. It is necessary to develop an attenuation relationship with careful considerations of characteristics of the target area for reliable seismic hazard/risk assessments. In the study, observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. In the meantime, a few strong ground motion attenuation relationships are proposed and introduced in HAZUS, which have been designed for the Western United States and the Central and Eastern United States. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al. (1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. Reliability of the assessment will be improved by using an appropriate attenuation relation. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

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Seismic Risk Assessment of Existing Low-rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Korea

  • LEE, Kang Seok;Jung, Ju-Seong;Choi, Yun-Chul
    • Architectural research
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2018
  • Countermeasures against earthquake disasters such as the seismic capacity evaluation and/or retrofit schemes of buildings, especially existing low-rise reinforced concrete buildings, have not been fully performed since Korea had not experienced many destructive earthquakes in the past. However, due to more than 1200 earthquakes with low or moderate intensity in the off-coastal and inland of Korea during the past 20 years, and due to the recent moderate earthquakes in Korea, such as the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake with M=5.8 and the 2017 Pohang Earthquake with M=5.4, the importance of the future earthquake preparedness measures is highly recognized in Korea. The main objective of this study is to provide the basic information regarding seismic capacities of existing low-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Korea. In this paper, seismic capacities of 14 existing low-rise reinforced concrete public buildings in Korea are evaluated based on the Japanese Standard for Evaluation of Seismic Capacity of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings. Seismic capacities between existing buildings in Korea and those in Japan is compared, and the relationship of seismic vulnerability of Korean buildings and Japanese buildings damaged due to severe earthquakes are also discussed. Results indicated that Korean existing low-rise reinforced concrete buildings have a narrow distribution of seismic capacities and they are relatively lower than Japanese buildings, and are also expected to have severe damage under the earthquake intensity level experienced in Japan. It should be noted from the research results that the high ductility in Korean existing low-rise buildings obtained from the Japanese Standard may be overestimated, because most buildings investigated herein have the hoop spacing wider than 30 cm. In the future, the modification of strength and ductility indices in the Japanese Standard to propose the seismic capacity evaluation method of Korean buildings is most needed.

Operational modal analysis of a long-span suspension bridge under different earthquake events

  • Ni, Yi-Qing;Zhang, Feng-Liang;Xia, Yun-Xia;Au, Siu-Kui
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.859-887
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    • 2015
  • Structural health monitoring (SHM) has gained in popularity in recent years since it can assess the performance and condition of instrumented structures in real time and provide valuable information to the asset's manager and owner. Operational modal analysis plays an important role in SHM and it involves the determination of natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes of a constructed structure based on measured dynamic data. This paper presents the operational modal analysis and seismic response characterization of the Tsing Ma Suspension Bridge of 2,160 m long subjected to different earthquake events. Three kinds of events, i.e., short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes are taken into account. A fast Bayesian modal identification method is used to carry out the operational modal analysis. The modal properties of the bridge are identified and compared by use of the field monitoring data acquired before and after the earthquake for each type of the events. Research emphasis is given on identifying the predominant modes of the seismic responses in the deck during short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes, respectively, and characterizing the response pattern of various structural portions (deck, towers, main cables, etc.) under different types of earthquakes. Since the bridge is over 2,000 m long, the seismic wave would arrive at the tower/anchorage basements of the two side spans at different time instants. The behaviors of structural dynamic responses on the Tsing Yi side span and on the Ma Wan side span under each type of the earthquake events are compared. The results obtained from this study would be beneficial to the seismic design of future long-span bridges to be built around Hong Kong (e.g., the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge).

국내 중소규모 흙댐의 상대적 액상화 파괴위험도 평가 기초 연구 (A Basic Study on Relative Liquefaction Failure Risk Assessment of Domestic Small to Medium-Sized Earthfill Dams)

  • 박태훈;하익수
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

Residual capacity assessment of in-service concrete box-girder bridges considering traffic growth and structural deterioration

  • Yuanyuan Liu;Junyong Zhou;Jianxu Su;Junping Zhang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제85권4호
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    • pp.531-543
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    • 2023
  • The existing concrete bridges are time-varying working systems, where the maintenance strategy should be planned according to the time-varying performance of the bridge. This work proposes a time-dependent residual capacity assessment procedure, which considers the non-stationary bridge load effects under growing traffic and non-stationary structural deterioration owing to material degradations. Lifetime bridge load effects under traffic growth are predicated by the non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method using time-dependent generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models. The non-stationary structural resistance owing to material degradation is modeled by incorporating the Gamma deterioration process and field inspection data. A three-span continuous box-girder bridge is illustrated as an example to demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure, and the time-varying reliability indexes of the bridge girder are calculated. The accuracy of the proposed non-stationary POT method is verified through numerical examples, where the shape parameter of the time-varying GPD model is constant but the threshold and scale parameters are polynomial functions increasing with time. The case study illustrates that the residual flexural capacities show a degradation trend from a slow decrease to an accelerated decrease under traffic growth and material degradation. The reliability index for the mid-span cross-section reduces from 4.91 to 4.55 after being in service for 100 years, and the value is from 4.96 to 4.75 for the mid-support cross-section. The studied bridge shows no safety risk under traffic growth and structural deterioration owing to its high design safety reserve. However, applying the proposed numerical approach to analyze the degradation of residual bearing capacity for bridge structures with low safety reserves is of great significance for management and maintenance.