• Title/Summary/Keyword: e-Learning Systems

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Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

A Machine Learning-based Total Production Time Prediction Method for Customized-Manufacturing Companies (주문생산 기업을 위한 기계학습 기반 총생산시간 예측 기법)

  • Park, Do-Myung;Choi, HyungRim;Park, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of the fourth industrial revolution technology, efforts are being made to improve areas that humans cannot handle by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning. Although on-demand production companies also want to reduce corporate risks such as delays in delivery by predicting total production time for orders, they are having difficulty predicting this because the total production time is all different for each order. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) theory was developed to find the least efficient areas to increase order throughput and reduce order total cost, but failed to provide a forecast of total production time. Order production varies from order to order due to various customer needs, so the total production time of individual orders can be measured postmortem, but it is difficult to predict in advance. The total measured production time of existing orders is also different, which has limitations that cannot be used as standard time. As a result, experienced managers rely on persimmons rather than on the use of the system, while inexperienced managers use simple management indicators (e.g., 60 days total production time for raw materials, 90 days total production time for steel plates, etc.). Too fast work instructions based on imperfections or indicators cause congestion, which leads to productivity degradation, and too late leads to increased production costs or failure to meet delivery dates due to emergency processing. Failure to meet the deadline will result in compensation for delayed compensation or adversely affect business and collection sectors. In this study, to address these problems, an entity that operates an order production system seeks to find a machine learning model that estimates the total production time of new orders. It uses orders, production, and process performance for materials used for machine learning. We compared and analyzed OLS, GLM Gamma, Extra Trees, and Random Forest algorithms as the best algorithms for estimating total production time and present the results.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Artificial Neural Network for Quantitative Posture Classification in Thai Sign Language Translation System

  • Wasanapongpan, Kumphol;Chotikakamthorn, Nopporn
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.1319-1323
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, a problem of Thai sign language recognition using a neural network is considered. The paper addresses the problem in classifying certain signs conveying quantitative meaning, e.g., large or small. By treating those signs corresponding to different quantities as derived from different classes, the recognition error rate of the standard multi-layer Perceptron increases if the precision in recognizing different quantities is increased. This is due the fact that, to increase the quantitative recognition precision of those signs, the number of (increasingly similar) classes must also be increased. This leads to an increase in false classification. The problem is due to misinterpreting the amount of quantity the quantitative signs convey. In this paper, instead of treating those signs conveying quantitative attribute of the same quantity type (such as 'size' or 'amount') as derived from different classes, here they are considered instances of the same class. Those signs of the same quantity type are then further divided into different subclasses according to the level of quantity each sign is associated with. By using this two-level classification, false classification among main gesture classes is made independent to the level of precision needed in recognizing different quantitative levels. Moreover, precision of quantitative level classification can be made higher during the recognition phase, as compared to that used in the training phase. A standard multi-layer Perceptron with a back propagation learning algorithm was adapted in the study to implement this two-level classification of quantitative gesture signs. Experimental results obtained using an electronic glove measurement of hand postures are included.

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Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN): A Survey

  • Mohammed, Yahaya Onimisi;Baroudi, Uthman A.
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.1036-1057
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    • 2013
  • Wireless body area network (WBAN) is a promising candidate for future health monitoring system. Nevertheless, the path to mature solutions is still facing a lot of challenges that need to be overcome. Energy efficient scheduling is one of these challenges given the scarcity of available energy of biosensors and the lack of portability. Therefore, researchers from academia, industry and health sectors are working together to realize practical solutions for these challenges. The main difficulty in WBAN is the uncertainty in the state of the monitored system. Intelligent learning approaches such as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) were proposed to tackle this issue. A Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a form of Markov Chain in which the transition matrix depends on the action taken by the decision maker (agent) at each time step. The agent receives a reward, which depends on the action and the state. The goal is to find a function, called a policy, which specifies which action to take in each state, so as to maximize some utility functions (e.g., the mean or expected discounted sum) of the sequence of rewards. A partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) is a generalization of Markov decision processes that allows for the incomplete information regarding the state of the system. In this case, the state is not visible to the agent. This has many applications in operations research and artificial intelligence. Due to incomplete knowledge of the system, this uncertainty makes formulating and solving POMDP models mathematically complex and computationally expensive. Limited progress has been made in terms of applying POMPD to real applications. In this paper, we surveyed the existing methods and algorithms for solving POMDP in the general domain and in particular in Wireless body area network (WBAN). In addition, the papers discussed recent real implementation of POMDP on practical problems of WBAN. We believe that this work will provide valuable insights for the newcomers who would like to pursue related research in the domain of WBAN.

An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Care Worker Scheduling

  • Akjiratikarl, Chananes;Yenradee, Pisal;Drake, Paul R.
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.171-181
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    • 2008
  • Home care, known also as domiciliary care, is part of the community care service that is a responsibility of the local government authorities in the UK as well as many other countries around the world. The aim is to provide the care and support needed to assist people, particularly older people, people with physical or learning disabilities and people who need assistance due to illness to live as independently as possible in their own homes. It is performed primarily by care workers visiting clients' homes where they provide help with daily activities. This paper is concerned with the dispatching of care workers to clients in an efficient manner. The optimized routine for each care worker determines a schedule to achieve the minimum total cost (in terms of distance traveled) without violating the capacity and time window constraints. A collaborative population-based meta-heuristic called Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is applied to solve the problem. A particle is defined as a multi-dimensional point in space which represents the corresponding schedule for care workers and their clients. Each dimension of a particle represents a care activity and the corresponding, allocated care worker. The continuous position value of each dimension determines the care worker to be assigned and also the assignment priority. A heuristic assignment scheme is specially designed to transform the continuous position value to the discrete job schedule. This job schedule represents the potential feasible solution to the problem. The Earliest Start Time Priority with Minimum Distance Assignment (ESTPMDA) technique is developed for generating an initial solution which guides the search direction of the particle. Local improvement procedures (LIP), insertion and swap, are embedded in the PSO algorithm in order to further improve the quality of the solution. The proposed methodology is implemented, tested, and compared with existing solutions for some 'real' problem instances.

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Information Technology on Knowledge Management Activity and Performance (정보기술이 지식경영활동과 성과에 미치는 효과에 대한 실증분석)

  • Choi, Eunsoo;Lee, Yooncheol
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.51-80
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the impact that occurs when Korean organizations make practical use of various information technology tools and systems in the knowledge management process, such as sharing, learning and creating knowledge. Such a process is usually made through online and offline knowledge management activities. This paper also verifies how the externalization of tacit knowledge, and the internalization of explicit knowledge via the Internet and offline socialization activities have altered the mechanisms of knowledge transfers inside organizations. For the research, a survey was conducted on the satisfaction and usability levels of information technology, and the impact of IT usage on the results of knowledge management activities and knowledge transfers. 622 Korean organizations were surveyed, including major listed firms and public organizations. The results were examined as an online/offline integration process using SECI's Model proposed by Nonaka (1994, 1995). The analysis shows that information technology satisfaction and the usage of information technology help accelerate the pace of the knowledge flow and amplify the volume of the knowledge transfer by boosting the externalization and internalization processes-also known as knowledge management activities. However. there is no distinct correlation between information technology and socialization, an offline knowledge transferal activity. In particular, the quality of knowledge-an end result of knowledge transfer-does not improve merely by the externalization of online knowledge and instead requires the internalization of knowledge processes. Above all, the research reveals that offline socialization processes vastly contribute to the improvement of knowledge quality. This paper suggests that in order to ensure a transfer of quality knowledge, an organization or a company should focus on the use of information technology rather than the satisfaction level of information technology, and that knowledge transfers via the Internet has limitations in creating high quality of knowledge. For an organization to ensure the transfer of high-quality knowledge, the organization should not entirely hinge the transfer of knowledge online, as it is essential to have an offline method-a form of socialization such as a 'community of practice.'

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The Roles of Intermediaries in Clusters: The Thai Experiences in High-tech and Community-based Clusters

  • Intarakumnerd, Patarapong
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.23-43
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    • 2005
  • Industrial clusters are geographical concentrations of interconnected companies, specialised suppliers, service providers, firms in related industries, and associated institutions (for example, universities, standard agencies, and trade associations) that combine to create new products and/or services in specific lines of business. At present, the concept of industrial cluster becomes very popular worldwide, policy makers at national, regional and local levels and business people in both forerunner and latecomer countries are keen to implement the cluster concept as an economic development model. Though understanding of clusters and related promoting policies varies from one place to another, the underlying benefits of clusters from collective learning and knowledge spillovers between participating actors strongly attract the attention of these people. In Thailand, a latecomer country in terms of technological catching up, the cluster concept has been used as a means to rectify weakness and fragmentation of its innovation systems. The present Thai government aspires to apply the concept to promote both high-tech manufacturing clusters, services clusters and community-based clusters at the grass-root level. This paper analyses three very different clusters in terms of technological sophistication and business objectives, i.e., hard disk drive, software and chili paste. It portrays their significant actors, the extent of interaction among them and the evolution of the clusters. Though are very dissimilar, common characteristics attributed to qualified success are found. Main driving forces of the three clusters are cluster intermediaries. Forms of these organizations are different from a government research and technology organization (RTO), an industrial association, to a self-organised community-based organization. However, they perform similar functions of stimulating information and knowledge sharing, and building trust among participating firms/individuals in the clusters. Literature in the cluster studies argues that government policies need to be cluster specific. In this case, the best way to design and implement cluster-specific policies is through working closely with intermediaries and strengthening their institutional especially in linking member firms/individuals to other actors in clusters such as universities, government R&D institutes, and financial institutions.

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How librarians really use the network for advanced service (정보봉사의 증진을 위한 사서들의 네트워크 이용연구)

  • 한복희
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.23
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 1995
  • The purpose of this study is twofold: to investigate into general characteristics of the networks in Korea as a new information technology and to discuss general directions of development of the use of the Internet. This study is designed to achieve the purpose by gathering and analysing data related to the use of Internet of librarians those who work in public libraries and research and development libraries and university libraries. The major conclusions made in this study is summarized as follows. (1) From this survey, received detailed response from 69 librarians, the majority (42) from research and development libraries. The majority (56) were from Library and Information Science subject area, half of them (37) hold advanced degrees. (2) Majority (40) have accessed Internet for one year or less, 9(17%) respondents for two years, 17(32%) spend every day Internet related activity. (3) 44.9% of the respondents taught themselves. 28.9% learned informally from a colleague. Formal training from a single one-hour class to more structured learning was available to 30.4%. (4) The most common reason respondents use the Internet are to access remote database searching(73.9%), to communicate with colleagues and friends and electronic mail(52.2%), to transfer files and data exchange(36.2%), to know the current research front(23.2%). They search OPACs for a variety of traditional task-related reasons(59.4%) and to see what other libraries are doing with their automated systems(31.9%). (5) Respondents for the most part use the functions : WWW (68. 1%), E-Mail(59.4%), FTP(52.2%), Gopher(34.8%), Wais(7.2%). (6) Respondents mentioned the following advantages : access to remote log-in database, an excellent and swift communications vehicle, reduced telecommunication cost, saving time. (7) Respondents mentioned the following disadvantages : low speed of communication, difficult of access to the relevant information and library materials, and shortage of database be distributed within Korea.

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