• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.33-60
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• 2009

This study explores the limitation in making a causal model through an existing case and proposes an alternative plan to improve a theoretical system of causation modeling. To make a dynamic and actual model, several principles are needed such as reality based analysis of system structures and dynamics, consistent expression of causations, conversion of numerical formulas to causal relations, classification and arrangement of variables by size of concept, etc. However, it is hard to find cases to apply these considerations from existing models in System Dynamics. Therefore, this study verifies errors of derived models from literatures and proposes principles and guides that should be considered to make a sound dynamic model on a causal map. It contributes to making an opportunity for exciting public opinion to improve theory about causal maps, yet it has limitation that the study does not advance forward to the experimental step. For future study, it plans to make up by classifying and leveling causal variables, developing a dynamic BSC model.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.35-48
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• 2009

The paper proposes a quantitative causal ordering map (QCOM) to combine qualitative and quantitative methods in a framework. The procedures for developing QCOM consist of three phases. The first phase is to collect partially known causal dependencies from experts and to convert them into relations and causal nodes of a model graph. The second phase is to find the global causal structure by tracing causality among relation and causal nodes and to represent it in causal ordering graph with signed coefficient. Causal ordering graph is converted into QCOM by assigning regression coefficient estimated from path analysis in the third phase. Experiments with the prediction model of Korea stock price show results as following; First, the QCOM can support the design of qualitative and quantitative model by finding the global causal structure from partially known causal dependencies. Second, the QCOM can be used as an integration tool of qualitative and quantitative model to offerhigher explanatory capability and quantitative measurability. The QCOM with static and dynamic analysis is applied to investigate the changes in factors involved in the model at present as well discrete times in the future.

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.53-61
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• 2009

Green Building Certification System currently going into effect is a static evaluation model. Therefore, as far as the sustainable development of certification system is concerned, further long-term evaluation is required. The main purpose of this study is to offer a model in a way of developing and verifying a dynamic model in Green Building Certification. A dynamic model development has been given System Dynamics based on the causal structure. Thus, this study focused on searching the causal structure of certification criteria and verifying the reality of the model through simulation processing after developing a model. In conclusion, the development of dynamic evaluation method can be attributed to systematic evaluation for the criteria of Certification System.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.327-346
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• 2003

본고는 에너지소비와 경제성장의 관계를 밝히는 데 목적을 둔다. 먼저 에너지 소비, 물가, 실질소득으로 구성된 모형이 안정적임을 확인한 후, 오차수정모형을 이용하여 단기에 있어서 에너지 소비와 소득이 상호 영향을 미쳐 쌍방적 인과관계가 존재함을 보인다. 이와 더불어 예측오차의 분산분해와 충격반응함수를 도입하여 경제성장이 에너지소비를 증가시키나, 에너지소비증가가 경제성장에 미치는 효과는 단기적일 뿐 아니라 물가에 비교적 오랫동안 영향을 미친다는 것을 밝힌다. 이러한 사실은 우리나라의 경우 경제성장으로 에너지 소비가 증가하나, 증가한 에너지 소비가 인플레 등을 통해 경제성장의 장애요인으로 작용할 수 있음을 의미한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• 융합경영연구
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.51-64
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• 2024

Recent studies have introduced that digital transformation positively impacts firm performance. However, research on the relationship between organizational capabilities or attitudes as antecedents or situational variables for successfully driving digital transformation remains limited. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze how dynamic digital capabilities and the mutual relationships between organizational members' digital acceptance influence firm performance throughout the process of driving and achieving digital transformation. Research design, data, and methodology: This study developed the concepts and measurement items for each variable based on prior research. A survey was conducted with 258 companies participating in mini clusters within industrial complexes across the county. The data was analyzed using a structural equation model with the AMOS software package. Results: Based on existing literature, hypotheses were formulated regarding the causal relationships among variables, and analysis was conducted. The results indicate that digital transformation and employees' technological acceptance play a mediating role in the relationship between dynamic digital capabilities and firm performance. Specifically, the organization's dynamic digital capabilities enhance both digital transformation and technological acceptance. Moreover, digital transformation leads to higher firm performance when technological acceptance is high. Conclusions: This study has shown the importance of enhancing dynamic digital capabilities as a prerequisite for driving digital transformation and highlighted the significance of organizational members' perceptions and attitudes toward information technology. Particularly, through detailed causal analysis among the specific items of each variable, insights were gained for both academic and practical applications.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.533-542
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• 2020

This study estimates the nature of the relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment in the Philippines over the 2001-2017 period. The paper employed a range of cointegrating regression models, namely, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models, dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) was also performed to determine the causal link of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The ARDL bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models confirmed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The long-run coefficients from JJ and dynamic OLS show significant long-run and positive relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. While results of the long-run coefficients from fully modified OLS and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) found that only entrepreneurship has significant and positive relationship with youth unemployment in the long-run. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) estimates show evidence of long-run causal relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. In the short-run, increases in entrepreneurship and business confidence causes youth unemployment to decrease.

• 한국정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보시스템학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.316-335
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• 2004

This paper builds a system dynamics model analyzing first mover effect and growth strategy of online retailer, a major segment of B2C e-commerce. The dynamic model in this paper is calibrated to the online book market and Yes24.com as major test cases. The model consists of eight key value chain sectors. Five of these(Users, Site Operations, Human Resources, Financial Accounting, and Fundraising) are internal to the company, and three others(Market, Financial Market, and Relative Performance) are external to the company. With the model, this paper suggests research propositions representing positive feedback loops and negative feedback loops that lead to corporate growth and limits to growth according to dynamic causal relationships among eight key value chain sectors, and simulate these propositions.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2008

조선산업에 있어서 자유무역 확대 및 BRICs 고성장으로 인한 해상물동량 증가, 선박기술과 문화의 융합에 따른 고급레저 선박수요의 증대, 컨테이너선의 대형화 고속화와 같은 글로벌 환경변화가 이루어지고 있다. 특히 우리나라는 2002년에 들어서면서 세계 1위로 성장하였고 2006년 선박건조량 기준 35%의 점유율을 달성하였다. 수주량 확보, 생산성 향상 및 공법개선, 안정된 노사관계 확립으로 생산량 증가세가 이어지고 있다. 이와 더불어 선박수출액은 1994년 49억 달러, 1999년 700억 달러, 2003년 1000억 달러, 2006년 2000억 달러로 대단히 빠르게 성장하고 있다. 이러한 배경하에서, 본 연구는 선박수출과 경제성장 사이의 인과관계를 분석하였다. 분석결과 선박수출이 실질소득에 영향을 미치고 실질소득이 선박수출에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나 선박수출와 실질소득 간에 쌍방적 인과관계가 성립함을 알 수 있었다. 또한 선박수출에서만 오차수정항이 통계적으로 유의하였다. 또한 단기에 있어서는 선박수출이 실질소득을 증가시키나 장기에서는 일정한 관계가 성립하지 않은 데 비해, 소득변동은 선박수출에 단기에서 뿐 아니라 장기에서도 일정한 관계가 존재함을 알 수 있었다. 그리고 실질소득과 선박수출의 오차수정방정식에서 선박수출과 오차수정항, 실질소득과 오차수정항에 대한 결합가설이 유의한 것으로 나타났다.