• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1994.02a
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• pp.412-415
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• 1994

The fundamental assumption that thresholds exist for noncarcinogenic toxic effects of chemicals is reviewed; this assumption forms the basis for the no-observed-effect level/ safety-factor (NOEL/SF) approach to risk assessment for such effects. The origin and evolution of the NOEL/SF approach are traced, and its limitations are discussed. The recently proposed use of dose-response modeling to estimate a benchmark dose as a replacement for the NOEL is explained. The possibility of expanding dose-response modeling of non carcinogenic effects to include the estimation of assumed thresholds is discussed. A new method for conversion of quantitative toxic responses to a probability scale for risk assessment via dose-response modeling is outlined.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.287-299
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• 2022

In radiation epidemiology, the excess relative risk (ERR) model is used to determine the dose-response relationship. In general, the dose-response relationship for the ERR model is assumed to be linear, linear-quadratic, linear-threshold, quadratic, and so on. However, since none of these functions dominate other functions for expressing the dose-response relationship, a Bayesian semiparametric method using splines has recently been proposed. Thus, we improve the Bayesian semiparametric method for the selection of the tuning parameters for splines as the number and location of knots using a Bayesian knot selection method. Equally spaced knots cannot capture the characteristic of radiation exposed dose distribution which is highly skewed in general. Therefore, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian knot selection method based on a Dirichlet process mixture model. Inference of the spline coefficients after obtaining the number and location of knots is performed in the Bayesian framework. We apply this approach to the life span study cohort data from the radiation effects research foundation in Japan, and the results illustrate that the proposed method provides competitive curve estimates for the dose-response curve and relatively stable credible intervals for the curve.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.5107-5111
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• 2016

Background: Epidemiological studies have indicated an increasing incidence of radiation induced secondary cancer (SC) in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy (RT), most commonly in the contra-lateral breast (CLB). The present study was conducted to estimate the SC risk in the CLB following 3D conformal radiotherapy techniques (3DCRT) including wedge field and forward intensity modulated radiotherapy (fIMRT) based on the organ equivalent dose (OED). Material and Methods: RT plans treating the chest wall with conformal wedge field and fIMRT plans were created for 30 breast cancer patients. The risks of radiation induced cancer were estimated for the CLB using dose-response models: a linear model, a linear-plateau model and a bell-shaped model with full dose response accounting for fractionated RT on the basis of OED. Results: The plans were found to be ranked quite differently according to the choice of model; calculations based on a linear dose response model fIMRT predict statistically significant lower risk compared to the enhanced dynamic wedge (EDW) technique (p-0.0089) and a non-significant difference between fIMRT and physical wedge (PW) techniques (p-0.054). The widely used plateau dose response model based estimation showed significantly lower SC risk associated with fIMRT technique compared to both wedge field techniques (fIMRT vs EDW p-0.013, fIMRT vs PW p-0.04). The full dose response model showed a non-significant difference between all three techniques in the view of second CLB cancer. Finally the bell shaped model predicted interestingly that PW is associated with significantly higher risk compared to both fIMRT and EDW techniques (fIMRT vs PW p-0.0003, EDW vs PW p-0.0032). Conclusion: In conclusion, the SC risk estimations of the CLB revealed that there is a clear relation between risk associated with wedge field and fIMRT technique depending on the choice of model selected for risk comparison.

• The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.167-177
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• 2004

The number of foodborne salmonellosis was estimated by using microbial risk assessment(MRA) methodology and the possibility of application was studied through comparison with previous results. The contamination levels of Salmonella sp. were estimated by using published domestic studies(1997∼2000) and monitoring data (1999∼2001) from food-safety related institutes. Data on food consumption came from the 2001 National Health and Nutrition Survey, and dose-response models from studies in other countries. Simulation results showed that there were 753,368 cases of salmonellosis in Korea in 1 year, which is about 115 times that reported in previous years and lower than the WHO's estimation increase. From these results, microbial risk assessment is likely to be available for estimation of the number of foodborne illnesses and determination of the order of priority in food-safety management. Butthe verification methods are not established and most of the data on contamination levels of foodborne bacteria, food consumption, and dose-response relationships have not been established. In addition, the actual conditions of circulation, storage and cooking must be studied further.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.633-640
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• 2012

Biological methods are described for the assay of certain substances and preparations whose potency cannot be adequately assured by chemical or physical analysis. The principle applied through these assays is of a comparison with a standard preparation to determine how much of the examined substance produces the same biological effects as a given quantity (the Unit) of the standard preparation. In these dilution assays, to estimate the relative potencies of the unknown preparations to the standard preparations, it is necessary to compare dose-response relationships of standard and unknown preparations. The dose-response relationship in the dilution assay is non-linear and sigmoid when a wide range of doses is applied. The parallel line model (applied to the dose region with the steepest slope) is used to estimate the relative potency. In this paper, the statistical theory in the parallel line model is explained with an application to a dilution assay data. The parallel line method is implemented in a SAS program and is available at the author's homepage(http://cafe.daum.net/go.analysis).

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.50-55
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• 2009

Ready-to-eats fresh cut-vegetables that may be consumed without further cooking or reheating can be grouped as potentially high risk foods. The foodborne disease outbreaks associated with consumption of the fresh cut-vegetables have been related with the contamination of Listeria monocytogenes. The food survey and consumption data sets for fresh cut-vegetables and also the published dose-response models for L. monocytogenes, was used to estimate the risk of L. monocytogenes for fresh cut-vegetables in Korea. Also, the simulation model and formulas with Microsoft@ Excel spreadsheet program using these data sets and chose dose-response model was developed. The mean case of listeriosis by consumption of the fresh cut-vegetables per 10 million per year was estimated as $3.23{\times}10^{-6}$. Results suggest that additional studies were needed to allow for a more realistic and accurate microbial risk assessment (MRA) in the future.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2023

Low-dose radiation exposure has received considerable attention because it reflects the general public's type and level of exposure. Still, controversy remains due to the relatively unclear results and uncertainty in risk estimation compared to high-dose radiation. However, recent epidemiological studies report direct evidence of health effects for various types of low-dose radiation exposure. In particular, international nuclear workers' studies, CT exposure studies, and children's cancer studies on natural radiation showed significantly increased cancer risk among the study populations despite their low-dose radiation exposure. These studies showed similar results even when the cumulative radiation dose was limited to an exposure group of less than 100 mGy, demonstrating that the observed excess risk was not affected by high exposure. A linear dose-response relationship between radiation exposure and cancer incidence has been observed, even at the low-dose interval. These recent epidemiological studies include relatively large populations, and findings are broadly consistent with previous studies on Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However, the health effects of low-dose radiation are assumed to be small compared to the risks that may arise from other lifestyle factors; therefore, the benefits of radiation use should be considered at the individual level through a balanced interpretation. Further low-dose radiation studies are essential to accurately determining the benefits and risks of radiation.

• Journal of health informatics and statistics
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.318-323
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• 2016

Objectives: Except the known risk factors for stroke, few studies have identified novel metabolic markers that could effectively detect stroke at an early stage. In this study, we explored the dose-response relationship between serum metabolites and the incidence of stroke. Methods: We studied 213 adults in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II (KCPS-II) biobank and estimated dose-response relationship between serum metabolites and stroke (42 cases and 171 controls). Three serum metabolites (Acetylcholine, HexadecylAcetylGlycerol, and 1-acetyl-2-formyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) were used in this study. The analysis included (1) exploratory nonlinear analysis, (2) estimation of flexion points and slopes at below and above the points. In the model to estimate risk of incidence of stroke, we controlled for conventional risk factors such as age, sex, systolic blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, triglyceride, and smoking status. Results: The relationship between incidence of stroke and log-transformed 1-acetyl-2-formyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine was non-linear with flexion point around intensity score of 8.8, whereas other metabolites, log-transformed Acetylcholine and HexadecylAcetylGlycerol, showed negative linear patterns. Conclusions: The study suggests that metabolic markers are associated with incidence of stroke, particularly, at or above the flexion point. The study result may contribute to developing a novel system for precise stroke prediction.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.18
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• pp.8553-8557
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• 2016

Background: Accurate dose assessment and correct identification of irradiated from non-irradiated people are goals of biological dosimetry in radiation accidents. Objectives: Changes in the FDXR and the RAD51 gene expression (GE) levels were here analyzed in response to total body exposure (TBE) to a 6 MV x-ray beam in rats. We determined the accuracy for absolute quantification of GE to predict the dose at 24 hours. Materials and Methods: For this in vivo experimental study, using simple randomized sampling, peripheral blood samples were collected from a total of 20 Wistar rats at 24 hours following exposure of total body to 6 MV X-ray beam energy with doses (0.2, 0.5, 2 and 4 Gy) for TBE in Linac Varian 2100C/D (Varian, USA) in Golestan Hospital, in Ahvaz, Iran. Also, 9 rats was irradiated with a 6MV X-ray beam at doses of 1, 2, 3 Gy in 6MV energy as a validation group. A sham group was also included. After RNA extraction and DNA synthesis, GE changes were measured by the QRT-PCR technique and an absolute quantification strategy by taqman methodology in peripheral blood from rats. ROC analysis was used to distinguish irradiated from non-irradiated samples (qualitative dose assessment) at a dose of 2 Gy. Results: The best fits for mean of responses were polynomial equations with a R2 of 0.98 and 0.90 (for FDXR and RAD51 dose response curves, respectively). Dose response of the FDXR gene produced a better mean dose estimation of irradiated "validation" samples compared to the RAD51 gene at doses of 1, 2 and 3 Gy. FDXR gene expression separated the irradiated rats from controls with a sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 87.5%, 83.5% and 81.3%, respectively, 24 hours after dose of 2 Gy. These values were significantly (p<0.05) higher than the 75%, 75% and 75%, respectively, obtained using gene expression of RAD51 analysis at a dose of 2 Gy. Conclusions: Collectively, these data suggest that absolute quantification by gel purified quantitative RT-PCR can be used to measure the mRNA copies for GE biodosimetry studies at comparable accuracy to similar methods. In the case of TBE with 6MV energy, FDXR gene expression analysis is more precise than that with RAD51 for quantitative and qualitative dose assessment.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.453-470
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• 2013

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the dose-effect relationship of cadmium to evaluate a benchmark dose(BMD). For this purpose, two dose-response curves commonly used in the toxicity study are fitted based on Bayesian methods to the data collected from the scientific literature on cadmium toxicity. Specifically, Bayesian meta-analysis and hierarchical modeling build an overall dose-effect relationship that use a piecewise linear model and Hill model, where the inter-study heterogeneity and inter-individual variability of dose and effect such as gender, age and ethnicity are accounted. Estimation of the unknown parameters is made by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based user-friendly software WinBUGS. Benchmark dose estimates are evaluated for various cut-offs and compared with different tested subpopulations with with gender, age and ethnicity based on these two Bayesian hierarchical models.