• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.15-29
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• 2007

In this paper, we explore some interesting models of the quasi-negative-binomial distribution based on difference differential equations applicable to theory of microorganisms and the situations like that. Some characterizations based on conditional distributions and damage process have been obtained. Further, the distribution of number of accidents as the quasi-negative-binomial distribution in the light of Irwin's theory of ";proneness-liability"; model has been derived. Finally, the proposed model (QNBD) has been applied to study the Shunting accidents, home injuries, and strikes in industries.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.65-71
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• 2008

As the interest in traffic safety has been increasing recently, social movement is being made to reduce the number of traffic accidents and the view on improving the mobility of the existing roads is being converted into on establishing traffic safety as a priority. The increase of traffic accidents related to an intersection in a state that traffic accidents are decreasing overall may suggests the necessity to investigate the specific causes. In addition, we have to consider them when establishing the measures against traffic accidents in a intersection by investigating and analyzing the influences and factors that may affect traffic accidents. To induce the accident severity model, we collected the factors that affect accidents and then applied the Poisson Regression Model among nonlinear regression analysis by verifying the distribution of variables. As a result of the analysis, it turned out that the volume of traffic on main roads, the right turn ratio on sub-roads, the number of ways out on sub-roads, the number of exclusive roads for a left turn, the signals for a right turn on main roads, and an intersect angle were the factors that affect the accident severity.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.151-157
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• 2005

During the period of every summer to early autumn seasons, ships have been wrecked or grounded from effect of a typhoon in the water areas around Korean Peninsula Typhoon Rusa killed more than 100 people in September 2002. Super Typhoon Maemi passed southeast of South Korea in September 12-13, 2003, with a strong gale blowing at a record 60 m/s and caused much ship groundings, collisions and sinkings over 3000 in dockyards, harbors and places of refuge. These are things that could have been prevented had there merely been prior warning. This study outlines the occurrence characteristics of maritime accidents caused by a typhoon in South Korea for the period from 1962 to 2002. The distribution of the accident records is also compared with the trajectories, winds, central pressures of typhoons, passed during the 1990-2003. It is shown that attack frequency of typhoon and number of marine accidents is the highest in August and the marine accidents due to typhoon have a close relation to the distribution of accumulated wind and pressure fields.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.93-102
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• 2016

PURPOSES : There are many recently constructed roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do province. This study analyzed how roundabouts reduce the risk of accidents and improve safety in the province. METHODS : This study analyzed safety improvement at roundabouts by using an accident prediction model that uses an Empirical Bayes method based on negative binomial distribution. RESULTS : The results of our analysis model showed that the total number of accidents decreased from 130 to 51. Roundabouts also decreased casualties; the number of casualties decreased from 7 to 0 and the seriously wounded from 87 to 16. The effectiveness of accident reduction as analyzed by the accident prediction model with the Empirical Bayes method was 60%. CONCLUSIONS : The construction of roundabouts can bring about a reduction in the number of accidents and casualties, and make intersections safer.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.43-49
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• 1968

Epidemiological and statistical observations were made of fire hazards that occurred during the past 18 years, 1948 to 1965. Injury and mortality rates for all ages were computed chronologically. For the years of 1955, 1961 and 1965, all fire accidents were epidemiologically analysed to draw characteristic patterns in relation to the seasonal and 24 hour distribution, causes and sites of accidents etc.. Fire hazards observed herein are the categorys E 916 of the International Classification of Causes of Death, 1955, and includes all accidents caused by fire and explosion of combustible materials. The following conclusion was made: 1. The average number of annual deaths due to fire was 183 and the number of the in jured due to the same cause was 335. The mortality rate per 100,000 population was 0.8 and the ratio of injuries per death was 1.83. 2. The casually rate including both the dead and injured was 5.0 per 100,000 in Seoul, the highest among the provinces and followed by 3.4 in Cheju -Do, 2.1 in Kangwon-Do, 1.7 in Kyunggi-Do accordingly. The other provinces had a range of 0.6 to 1.2. 3. The monthly distribution of fro accidents showed that the winter months, December through February, had more frequent accidents, while the summer season, June through August had less. The 24 hour distribution of accidents showed more cases from 12:00 to 18:00 and less from 4:00 to 10:00 hours. 4. The per cent distribution of causes of accidents showed; 90.0% for careless, 10.0% for arson. The cause of carelessness was further breakdown into; 15.0% for kitchen fire places, 13.8% for fire playing, 9,4% for electrical heating and wires, 8.3% for fuels, 6.3% for matches, 5.2% for ash dumps and the remaining for others. 5. The accidents as classified by place revealed that 56.8% of the total occurred at the common dwelling houses, 11.3 at various industrial workshops, 9.3% at the street shops and the remaining at the miscellaneous places.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.33-39
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• 2020

In order to cope with traffic accidents efficiently, the maximum number of traffic accidents, deaths and serious injuries that can occur during the day should be presented quantitatively. In order to examine the characteristics of traffic accidents in different regions, it was divided into the Seoul metropolitan area, Chungcheong area, Gyeongbuk area, Honam area, and Gyeongnam area and was suitable for the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The parameters of the GEV distribution were estimated by the L-moments, and the Anderson-Darling test and the Cramer-von Mises test confirmed the suitability of the distribution. According to the analysis, the maximum number of traffic accidents that can occur once every 50 years is 401 in the Seoul metropolitan area, 168 in the South Gyeongsang region, 455 in the North Gyeongsang region, 136 in the Chungcheong region and 205 in the South Jeolla region. Compared to the Seoul metropolitan area, which has a large population and car registration, the number of traffic accidents is relatively high due to the large area, mountainous areas, and logistics movement caused by the industrial complex.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.302-310
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• 2018

Despite the accident rate for fishing vessels accounts for 70% of all maritime accidents, few studies on such accidents have been done and most of the them mainly focus on causes and mitigation policies to reduce that accident rate. Thus, this risk analysis on sea accidents is the first to be performed for the successful and efficient implementation of accident reducing measures. In risk analysis, risk is calculated based on the combination of frequency and the consequence of an accident, and is usually expressed as a single number. However, there exists uncertainty in the risk calculation process if one uses a limited number of data for analysis. Therefore, in the study we propose a probabilistic simulation method to forecast risk not as a single number, but in a range of possible risk values. For the capability of the proposed method, using the criteria with the ALARP region, we show the possible risk values spanning across the different risk regions, whereas the single risk value calculated from the existing method lies in one of the risk regions. Therefore, a decision maker could employ appropriate risk mitigation options to handle the risks lying in different regions. For this study, we used fishing vessel accident data from 1988 to 2016.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.135-144
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• 2009

This study estimates the expected number of accidents in Kyungbuk Province to capitalize on experience gained from four years of accident history using the Empirical Bayes (EB) Method. The number of accidents of each site in Kyungbuk Province is recalculated using the Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) method to reflect the severities of the accidents. A cluster analysis is performed to determine similar sites and a unique Safety Performance Function (SPF) is established for each site. The overdispersion parameter is built to correct the difference between the actual number of accidents and the underlying probability distribution. To adjust for varying traffic characteristics of each site, a relative weight is applied and eventually estimates the expected number of accidents. The results show that the highest accident sites are Kimcheon, Youngcheon, and Chilgok, but on the other hand the lowest is Gunwi.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Oriental Medical Informatics
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.49-56
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• 2005

Objectives To evaluate the treatment effect of Bee-venom Acupuncture on Neck Pain by Traffic Accidents, which is well known for anti-inflammatory effect and function of activating immune system. Methods We investigated 33 cases of patients with Neck Pain by Traffic Accidents by soft tissue injury. One group was treated by Bee-venom Acupuncture therapy, the other group was treated by General Acupuncture therapy . We evaluated the treatment effect of each group by Treatment Days & Number of Times, Distribution of Clinical evaluation grade, Visual Analog Scale before and after Treatment.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1-5
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• 2007

We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.