• Title/Summary/Keyword: distributed lag model

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Does Technological Progress, Trade, or Financial Globalization Stimulate Income Inequality in India?

  • GIRI, Arun Kumar;PANDEY, Rajan;MOHAPATRA, Geetilaxmi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2021
  • The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the effects of trade, financial globalization, and technological progress on income inequality in the Indian economy over the period from 1982 to 2018. For this purpose, the study uses economic growth, financial globalization, trade openness, technological development, and economic inequality variables with appropriate proxies. The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and VECM based Granger causality approach to estimate both the short-run and long-run relationship and causality among variables. Using the ARDL bounds test, the study finds a long-run co-integrating relationship existing among the variables in the model. The study confirms the existence of a positive and significant impact of technological progress on income inequality. Further, globalization's limited impact reflects two offsetting tendencies; trade globalization is associated with a reduction in income inequality, while financial globalization is related to an increase in inequality. The results of VECM based Granger causality approach further confirm that technological progress, trade, and financial globalization causes income inequality both directly and indirectly through economic growth and inflation. In case of India, the results of this research can significantly facilitate stakeholders and policymakers in devising policies towards effective globalization and technological innovation for inclusive growth.

The Relationship Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

  • GOLDER, Uttam;SHEIKH, Md. Imran;SULTANA, Fatema
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.625-633
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    • 2021
  • Bangladesh's growing foreign aid has sparked controversy over whether it affects the country's economic performance. This review assesses foreign aid's influence on the country's economic growth with annual data covering the 1989-2018 period. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to achieve the research objective, and the empirical results indicate a substantial and robust impact of foreign assistance on economic growth. The outcome further reveal that domestic investment also contributes significantly to the country's economic evolution. However, trade openness plays a substantial positive role in the short run, although the impact is immaterial in the long run. The empirical findings indicate that the association between aid, domestic investment, and growth has a confident meaningful effect at 1 per cent level in the long run, whereas aid influences more than domestic investment. However, in the short run, aid, domestic investment, trade openness, and growth show positive and noteworthy response also at 1 percent level. This review undertakes a detailed analysis about the country's economic growth, and grounded on its outcome, this work suggests that focus should be placed more on creating domestic investment, promoting more export, and allocation of aid should be determined by the relative needs of the country.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Household Debt in China

  • CANAKCI, Mehmet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.653-663
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    • 2021
  • There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn't have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.

The Real Exchange Rate Effect on Bilateral Trade Balance between Korea and ASEAN Countries (실질 환율이 한국의 대(對) ASEAN 무역수지에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Cho, Jung-Hwan
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2019
  • This study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and ASEAN 10 countries. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2017 the paper analyzes whether or not the real depreciation of Korea's won could improve the trade balance in the short and long term. Based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the empirical results show that trade balance, GDP, and real exchange rate are all cointegrated, representing the long-run relationship among variables. In the consideration of long-run relationship, the increases in ASEAN countries' GDP could have a negative impact and Korea's GDP positive impact on trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries unexpectedly. For the main variable, the paper did not find the long-term effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, for the short-term effect of the real exchange rate it was found that there exists the J-curve effect only in the case of Vietnam and Brunei. Therefore, these results imply that the intended policy concerning the exchange rate in the free-floating exchange rate system could be limited to improve the trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Approaches to Money Demand Determination in Indonesia: Is Divisia Money Relevant?

  • LEONG, Choi-Meng;PUAH, Chin-Hong;TANG, Maggie May-Jean
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.7
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to examine whether symmetric effects or asymmetric effects of exchange rates exist in determining the money demand in Indonesia. Simple-sum money and Divisia money were included in different models for comparison due to the financial developments in Indonesia. This study uses time-series data from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4 for the estimation. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is utilized to verify the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were performed to verify the order of integration of the variables. The findings of this study revealed that the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of money demand in Indonesia and the effect is asymmetric. The findings further indicated that money demand function, which incorporates Divisia monetary aggregate is parsimonious. Monetary targets such as money supply and interest rates are critical for monetary policy conduct to achieve inflation levels set by government. As the adoption of an inflation targeting framework needs to be in keeping with the flexible exchange rate system, the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes can be used in exchange rate policy conduct to achieve financial system and price stability.

New approach of composite wooden beam- reinforced concrete slab strengthened by external bonding of prestressed composite plate: Analysis and modeling

  • Tahar, Hassaine Daouadji;Tayeb, Bensatallah;Abderezak, Rabahi;Tounsi, Abdelouahed
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.78 no.3
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    • pp.319-332
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    • 2021
  • The wood-concrete composite is an interesting solution in the field of Civil Engineering to create high performance bending elements for bridges, as well as in the building construction for the design of wood concrete floor systems. The authors of this paper has been working for the past few years on the development of the bonding process as applied to wood-concrete composite structures. Contrary to conventional joining connectors, this assembling technique does ensure an almost perfect connection between wood and concrete. This paper presents a careful theoretical investigation into interfacial stresses at the level of the two interfaces in composite wooden beam- reinforced concrete slab strengthened by external bonding of prestressed composite plate under a uniformly distributed load. The model is based on equilibrium and deformations compatibility requirements in all parts of the strengthened composite beam, i.e., the wooden beam, RC slab, the CFRP plate and the adhesive layer. The theoretical predictions are compared with other existing solutions. This research is helpful for the understanding on mechanical behaviour of the interface and design of the CFRP- wooden-concrete hybrid structures.

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Thailand and China: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing

  • RUANKHAM, Warawut;PONGPRUTTIKUL, Phoommhiphat
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.9
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to investigate the existence of the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) puzzle in international macroeconomics by applying the conditional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in Thailand and China. The input of this study relied on annual national savings and investments as a fraction of GDP during 1980-2019 which was collected from China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Thailand National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Hypothetically, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were applied to test the stationary properties and to investigate the integration level of selected time series. The empirical results, confirmed by cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum square (CUSUMSQ), maintained no serial correlation and structural break problems. The finding of this study suggested that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Thailand did not exist significantly. Thailand's national savings and investments nexus was independent, following the classic economic idea that financial liberalization, or perfect capital mobility, allowed national savings and investments to flow freely to countries with better interest rates. Whereas, a strong significant correlation was found in the case of China during the fixed exchange rate regime switching in 1994 and post WTO participation after 2001-2019.

The Impact of Globalization on CO2 Emissions in Malaysia

  • CHUAH, Soo Cheng;CHEAM, Chai Li;SULAIMAN, Saliza
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the impact of globalization, coal consumption, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Malaysia by applying the Kuznets Environmental Curve model. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling technique on time series data over the period of 1970-2018 to determine the short and long-run relationship between CO2 emissions and a number of variables, including globalization, coal consumption, and economic growth. The results show that globalization increase CO2 emissions in both the short and long run in Malaysia. Furthermore, the results reveal that economic growth and coal consumption degrade the environmental quality by accelerating the CO2 emissions in the short-run and long run. As a result, the findings validate the Kuznets Environmental Curve hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in the long run for Malaysia. The findings of this study suggest that higher globalization levels and usage of coal consumption degrade the environmental quality in Malaysia. The findings also indicate the effect of economic growth on environmental degradation is positive at the initial stage but improves after the economy achieves a threshold level of income per capita in the economic development process with an inverted U-shaped pattern in the long run.

A Study on Identification of the Heat Vulnerability Area Considering Spatial Autocorrelation - Case Study in Daegu (공간적 자기상관성을 고려한 폭염취약지역 도출에 관한 연구 - 대구광역시를 중심으로)

  • Seong, Ji Hoon;Lee, Ki Rim;Kwon, Yong Seok;Han, You Kyung;Lee, Won Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 2020
  • The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) recommended the importance of preventive measures against extreme weather, and heat waves are one of the main themes for establishing preventive measures. In this study, we tried to analyze the heat vulnerable areas by considering not only spatial characteristics but also social characteristics. Energy consumption, popu lation density, normalized difference vegetation index, waterfront distance, solar radiation, and road distribution were examined as variables. Then, by selecting a suitable model, SLM (Spatial Lag Model), available variables were extracted. Then, based on the Fuzzy theory, the degree of vulnerability to heat waves was analyzed for each variable, and six variables were superimposed to finally derive the heat vulnerable area. The study site was selected as the Daegu area where the effects of the heat wave were high. In the case of vulnerable areas, it was confirmed that the existing urban areas are mainly distributed in Seogu, Namgu, and Dalseogu of Daegu, which are less affected by waterside and vegetation. It was confirmed that both spatial and social characteristics should be considered in policy support for reducing heat waves in Daegu.

The Effects of Earnings Management, Related Party Transactions and ESG Management of Chaebol Firms on Corporate Performance in Korea (재벌기업의 이익조정, 관계회사 간 거래와 ESG 경영이 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Narantugs, Namuun;Liu, Yue;Kim, Sung-Hwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.103-123
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study investigates the effects of earnings management, related party transactions between chaebol affiliates on earnings management and ESG score on their profitability using return on assets (ROA). Design/Methodology/Approach - We use data including ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance) score of the Korea Corporate Governance Service(KCGS), and financial data of 10,145 firm-year observations from the Total Solution 2000 (TS 2000) and Korea Companies-Information Service (KOKOInfo), and apply the finite lagged models to investigate the long-term effects of related party transactions between chaebol affiliates of earnings management on ESG scores and corporate performance. Furthermore, to take into consideration the simultaneous mutual effects on each other of main variables, we introduce finite distributed lags of five years. Findings - First, ESG-rated firms have a higher total asset return than non-ESG-rated firms. Second, chaebol firms have a higher profitability than non-chaebol firms. Third, profit management of related party transactions between affiliates within a chaebol has a positive effect on the short-term profitability and a negative effect on the long-term profitability. Fourth, chaebol ESG firms have a lower impact on profitability due to rating up (down) than non-chaebol ESG firms. Research Implications or Originality - Based on the above results, it can be concluded that firms used related party transactions for earnings management, the effects of related party transactions change over time, and chaebol firms manipulate earnings through related party transactions and ESG scores.