• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.49-59
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• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.181-190
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• 2021

This paper empirically examines the asymmetric response of the Indonesian Islamic stock market to macroeconomic variables encompassing money supply, domestic output, exchange rate, and Federal Reserve rate. Our study employs the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) after the financial crisis in the Southeast Asian country using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2019. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag (NARDL) is applied. Our study considers two models consisting of the model without the Federal Reserve rate and the model with it. Our findings confirm the long-run link between Jakarta Islamic Index and macroeconomic factors being studied. Furthermore, the Jakarta Islamic Index asymmetrically responds to broad money supply and exchange rate, but not to domestic output and Federal Reserve rate. A reduction in the money supply has a worse effect on Islamic stock prices as compared to an increase in the money supply. The Jakarta Islamic Index responds differently to depreciation and appreciation. The transmission of the exchange rate to Islamic stock prices occurs only for appreciation. Our study finds an absence of transmission mechanism from the domestic output and the interest rate to Islamic stock prices. Our results imply that the easy money policy and stabilizing currency are key to supporting Indonesian Islamic stock prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.167-176
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• 2022

By analyzing the impact of oil prices on economic growth, this study has shown a new insight into the link between oil price inflation and economic growth. The primary goal of this study is to determine if oil prices are pro-growth or anti-growth. To provide empirical proof, the series data for both the core and control variables from 1972 to 2020 was used to justify the association on empirical grounds. To account for the presence of a unit root, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test was used, and after making the series compatible for co-integration, the Autoregressive distributed lag model was used to determine the empirical estimate. Additionally, the empirical models were used to diagnose heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The reference point model reveals that in developing nations like Pakistan, economic growth is anti-growth with an increase in prices, and it responds negatively to economic growth in the long and short run. As a result, oil price inflation in Pakistan fails to have a significant beneficial impact on economic growth in both the long and short run, but it does raise the general price level in the economy.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.351-364
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• 2023

Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.23-35
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• 2024

Purpose: The study focuses on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade openness, and energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in the Ivory Coast. It aims to quantitatively evaluate the effects of FDI, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO₂ emissions in Ivory Coast. Research design, data, and methodology: The research uses an econometric framework and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze time-series data from 1980 to 2021 between these factors. Results: The analysis revealed that FDI significantly impacts the carbon dioxide emissions, FDI showed a negative impact on carbon emissions in the long-run equilibrium term. Also, energy consumption impacted CO₂ emissions in the long-run equilibrium term. Conclusion: To mitigate the upsurge of CO₂ emissions in the Ivorian context, concrete policy, including enactment and adherence to strict environmental regulations, adoption and prioritization of eco-friendly products and technologies, and investment in renewable energy infrastructure are recommended. The study contributes to the global discussion on sustainable development by offering a model for similar assessments in other emerging nations facing simultaneous economic growth and environmental conservation challenges.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.33-39
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• 2007

LonWorks over IP (LonWorks/IP) virtual device network (VDN) is an integrated form of LonWorks device network and IP data network. LonWorks/IP VDN can offer ubiquitous access to the information on the factory floor and make it possible for the predictive and preventive maintenance on the factory floor. Timely response is inevitable for predictive and preventive maintenance on the factory floor under the real-time distributed control. The network induced uncertain time delay deteriorates the performance and stability of the real-time distributed control system on LonWorks/IP virtual device network. Therefore, in order to guarantee the stability and to improve the performance of the networked distributed control system the time-varying uncertain time delay needs to be compensated for. In this paper, under the real-time distributed control on LonWorks/IP VDN with uncertain time delay, a control scheme based on disturbance observer and ZPETC(Zero Phase Error Tracking Controller) phase lag compensator is proposed and tested through computer simulation. The result of the proposed control is compared with that of internal model controller (IMC) based on Smith predictor and disturbance observer. It is shown that the proposed control scheme is disturbance and noise tolerant and can significantly improve the stability and the tracking performance of the periodic reference. Therefore, the proposed control scheme is well suited for the distributed servo control for predictive maintenance on LonWorks/IP-based virtual device network with time-varying delay.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.61-69
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• 2015

This study compares the forecasting accuracy of five econometric models on domestic total freight volume in South Korea. Applied five models are as follows: Ordinary Least Square model, Partial Adjustment model, Reduced Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Vector Autoregressive model, Time Varying Parameter model. Estimating models and forecasting are carried out based on annual data of domestic freight volume and an index of industrial production during 1970~2011. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year ahead forecasting performance of five models was compared using the recursive forecasting method. Additionally, two forecasting periods were set to compare forecasting accuracy according to the size of future volatility. As a result, the Time Varying Parameter model showed the best accuracy for forecasting periods having fluctuations, whereas the Vector Autoregressive model showed better performance for forecasting periods with gradual changes.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.57-81
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• 2010

Since the Republic of Korea is highly dependent on fossil fuels despite high oil prices, it urgently needs to renew its economic and social system to cut carbon emissions and achieve green growth. Therefore, reforming or eliminating subsidies related to the use of fossil fuels is a timely and oppropriate policy recommendation for Korea. It would be a win-win deal for Korean society as it would not only reduce the use of environmentally harmful fossil fuels but also enhance economic efficiency. In particular, cross-subsidies for industrial, agricultural and night thermal-storage power services make up more than 80 percent of all subsidies provided to the entire electric power industry sector of Korea. Of these cross-subsidies, this paper analyzes the electricity subsidy for industries, which takes up the largest share (about KRW 1.6583 trillion yearly), among the environmentally harmful subsidies in the electric power sector. Thus, the paper focuses on the analysis of ripple effect anticipated when this is reformed. To examine the effects of this subsidy reform, price elasticities were estimated using the ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model and quarterly data from 1990 to 2007. The main results of this study show that 1) annual energy demand for electric power in the industrial sector would drop by 12,475,930MWh and 2) $CO_2$ emissions would plummet by 2,644,897 tons per year if the subsidy were reformed. We can deduct from this that the abolition of environmentally harmful subsidies in the electric power sector in the Republic of Korea would considerably contribute to $CO_2$ emissions abatement in the country.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.21-31
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• 2020

This study investigates the dynamic effects of economic development, international cooperation, electricity consumption, and political risk on the escalation of CO₂ emission in Vietnam. We adopted autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality method to examine the interaction between CO₂ and various economic and political factors, including foreign direct investment, trade openness, economic growth, manufacture, electricity consumption, and political risk in Vietnam since the economic revolution in 1986. The findings reflect opposite influence between these factors and the level of CO₂ in the intermediate and long-term durations. Accordingly, foreign direct investment and CO₂ emission have a bidirectional relationship, in which foreign direct investment accelerates short-term CO₂ emission, but reduces it in the long run through an interactive mechanism. Moreover, economic development increases the volume of CO₂ emission in both short and long run. There was also evidence that political risk has a negative effect on the environment. Overall, the findings confirm lasting negative environmental effects of economic growth, trade liberalization, and increased electricity consumption. These factors, with Granger causality, mutually affect the escalation of CO₂ in Vietnam. In order to control the level of CO₂, more efforts are required to improve administrative transparency, attract high-quality foreign investment, and decouple the environment from economic development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.693-702
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• 2020

The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.