• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.3-27
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• 2012

This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.146-170
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper addresses the concepts of FDI-Trade-Growth nexus in Myanmar's economy and empirically investigates the interrelationships of trade, investment and economic growth to reveal the growth model of Myanmar's economy. Additionally, this paper also addresses the cooperative strategies between Myanmar and South Korea through a case study related to South Korea's economic growth. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the interrelationship among FDI, trade, growth, labor force and inflation in Myanmar. This study employs ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) to conduct an analysis of the FDI-Trade-Growth relationships using the time series data from 1970 to 2016 and a conducted case study of South Korea provided for practical implication on cooperative strategies between Myanmar and Korea. Findings - Export equation was chosen through the diagnostic tests. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Export in Myanmar is positively influenced by labor force, FDI, capital formation and negatively impacted by import and instable inflation rate in the long run. In the short run, GDP and import positively influence export. The Granger causality test proves that Myanmar is an FDI/labor force-led Growth economy, where FDI and labor force are main drivers of export followed by GDP in Myanmar. The case study of South Korea provided that Korea's tax and credit system for promoting export-led FDI industries and cooperative units for joint ventures between Korea and Myanmar in export-led FDI industries are recommended. Originality/value - No study has yet to be conducted on the interrelationships of macroeconomic factors from the perspectives of FDI-Trade-Growth Nexus in Myanmar under the assumption of labor force and inflation rate as fundamental conditions. The current study also covered a relatively longer period of time series data from 1970 to 2016. This paper also conducts a case study of South Korea's experience in order to evaluate the findings and provide better policy implications.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.117-125
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• 2020

This paper aims to investigate FDI attractive factors, which are important to formulate policies to attract Korean direct investment into Vietnam. Based on the literature review and the results of interview with 27 Korean investors in Vietnam, we determined the model of variables attracting Korea's FDI into Vietnam. It is used to assess the impact of attractive factors belonging to three groups of variables to support investment decision; they are macroeconomics variables (including market size factor, labor cost factor, and market openness factor), policies variables (including monetary policy factor and tax rate gap factor), and microeconomics variables (geographic advantage factor representative by location). This research also utilized a relatively new quantitative research method based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) with the time data chain from 1995 to 2017 of Korean FDI into Vietnam. It analyzes long-term relationships between dependent variables and independent variables. The result of this study indicates that there are three positive factors (low wages, trade openness and government policy) explaining the FDI flows in the long term. The result also shows that incentive tax policy has had a positive impact on Korean FDI, which has satisfied the aim of seeking efficiency of Korean investors.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.3-17
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• 2017

The purpose of the paper is to suggest the empirical evidences for the effects of factor prices on the export performance in the Korean manufacturing industries during the period 1975:1-2016:4. The paper is to set up the error correction model derived from the autoregressive distributed lag scheme and to estimate the factor price elasticities of export in the 8 manufacturing industries. The real wage, interest and import price index elasticities of export all were estimated to be statistically significant at 1% level in the most industries with showing negative signs as expected. And the real wage elasticity proved to likely be smaller as the industries become more capital-intensive while the import price index elasticity tended to become larger in industries with larger ratio of imported intermediate goods to output. The empirical results suggest that the declines in input factor prices since the foreign exchange crisis in the end of 1997 have positive effects on the export performance in the Korean manufacturing industries.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.239-254
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• 2021

This paper studies time series analysis with estimation and forecasting for Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, based on the approach of a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with two-piece t (TP-T) distributed errors. We consider HAR-TP-T time series models and suggest a step-by-step method to estimate HAR coefficients as well as TP-T distribution parameters. In our proposed step-by-step estimation, the ordinary least squares method is utilized to estimate the HAR coefficients while the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is adopted to estimate the TP-T error parameters. A simulation study on the step-by-step method is conducted and it shows a good performance. For the empirical analysis on the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, estimates in the HAR-TP-T models of order p = 2, 3, 4 are computed along with a couple of selected lags, which include the optimal lags chosen by minimizing the mean squares errors of the models. The estimation results by our proposed method and the solely MLE are compared with some criteria rules. Our proposed step-by-step method outperforms the MLE in two aspects: mean squares error of the HAR model and mean squares difference between the TP-T residuals and their densities. Moreover, forecasting for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases is discussed with the optimally selected HAR-TP-T model. Mean absolute percentage error of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts is evaluated as 0.0953% in the proposed model. We conclude that our proposed HAR-TP-T time series model with optimally selected lags and its step-by-step estimation provide an accurate forecasting performance for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-29
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• 2008

The goal of this study is to analyze the effects of the second energy tax reform of the transportation sector in Korea. For this purpose, we estimated the elasticities of energy demand(for gasoline, diesel and LPG) by using the ARDL(Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) Model during the period of 1997 and 2005. We have the empirical results that the demand for diesel would decrease as much as of 382 million barrel per year and the demand for LPG would increase as much as of 20 million barrel per year since 2007. The second energy tax reform would also result in the decrease of 27,346 ton of air pollutants and 0.96 million ton of carbon dioxide per year. This shows that the second energy tax reform would have achieved its own policy goals by reducing energy demand and improving the quality of environment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.137-145
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• 2020

The aim of this study is to find out the time-series nexus of public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. For an upper-middle income country, Malaysia had experienced over 50% ratio of debt to GDP since 2009 until now. The question arises is whether this trend is healthy to the economy. With a focus into the debt-to-GDP ratio from 1970-2015, this study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. This study used secondary data by collecting time-series data (1970-2015) from the World Bank Data and Bank Negara Malaysia. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied in this study to examine the relationship between debt and economic growth. Based on ARDL framework, it shows that there is a long-run effect between the debt and economic growth in Malaysia. While the significance value of Error Correction Term shows that there is a long-run adjustment in the short run. Generally, this study found government expenditures, in the long run, strongly influence the GDP per capita. Through the findings, the government expenditures could increase the GDP per capita. The study also reveals that any increment of the debt ratio will result in reduction of the GDP per capita.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.49.1-49.1
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• 2021

We carried out simultaneous monitoring observations of five maser lines, H₂O (22 GHz), SiO 𝝊 =1, 2, J =1-0 (43.1, 42.8 GHz), and SiO 𝝊 =1, J=2-1, J =3-2 (86.2, 129.3 GHz), toward the Mira variable star WX Serpentis with the 21-m antennas of the Korean VLBI Network (KVN) in 2009-2021 (~12 years). Most spectra of the H₂O maser are well separated into two parts of two blue- and one redshifted features within ± 10 km s-1 of the stellar velocity. All detected SiO masers are generally concentrated within ± 5 km s-1 of the stellar velocity, and sometimes appear split into two components. Overall, the profiles of SiO and H₂O masers detected in WX Serpentis illustrate typical characteristics of the Mira variable. In addition, flux variations of both SiO and H₂O masers are well correlated with the optical light curve of the central star, showing a phase lag of ~ 0.1 for SiO masers and ~ 0.2 for H₂O maser. This phenomenon is considered to be the direct effect of propagating shock waves generated by the stellar pulsation, because SiO and H₂O masers are sequentially distributed at different positions with respect to the central star. In addition, we analyzed long-term trends and characteristics of maser velocities, maser ratio, and the velocity extents (the full width at zero power; FWZP). We also investigated a spectral energy distribution (SED) ranging from 1.2 to 240 ㎛ obtained using several infrared data: 2MASS, WISE, IRAS, ISO, COBE DIBRE, RAFGL, and AKARI (IRC and FIS). From the IRAS LRS and ISO SWS spectra of this star, we identified 9.7 and 12 ㎛ silicate emission features consistent with the SE6 spectrum model, corresponding to the typical AGB phase.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.187-224
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• 2014

We present key issues to consider in estimating damages from price-fixing cases and then apply the procedure addressing those issues to a transportation fuel market. Among the five methods of overcharge calculation, the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method is the best. If the price equation relates the domestic price to the foreign price and the exchange rate as in the transportation fuel market, the functional form satisfying both logical consistency and modeling flexibility is the log-log functional form. If the data under analysis is of time series in nature, then the ARDL model should be the base model for each market and the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method combines these ARDL equations to account for inter-market correlation and arrange constant terms and collusion-period dummies across component equations appropriately so as to identify the overcharge parameter. We propose a two-step test for the benchmarked market: (a) conduct market-by-market Spearman or Kendall test for randomness of the individual market price series first and (b) then conduct across-market Friedman test for homogeneity of the market price series. Statistical significance is the minimal requirement to establish the alleged proposition in the world of uncertainty. Between the sensitivity analysis and the model selection process for the best fitting model, the latter is far more important in the economic analysis of damage in price-fixing litigation. We applied our framework to a transportation fuel market and could not reject the null hypothesis of no overcharge.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.81-92
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• 2017

This study was to investigate the elasticity in tourism demand of Chinese tourists visiting Malaysia through ARDL models by using Chinese tourists arrivals, GDP, CPI, transportation costs and others. When China was implementing an open-door policy with foreign countries in the early 15th century, the movement of Chinese was very limited, and then communication between China and other countries was very weak. However, the Chinese government persistently and entirely implemented an open-door policy by participating in the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001. The Chinese government has opened the economy through foreign direct investment by providing various incentives for foreign investment. As a result, inbound and outbound Chinese movements increased in the early 21st century. China was one of the top five most visited tourist destinations in the world by 2016, and also Chinese tourists traveling abroad increased, so they made Malaysia a popular tourists destination because of increase sharply to around 1.41 million. This study examined the significance of major economic factors affecting the increase in Chinese tourists arriving in Malaysia. Other factors that induced their arrival included income, tourism prices, transportation costs and promotional activities. Short-run shocks from the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of SARS were included to understand how tourism demand in Malaysia was affected. Finally this study found that the combination of the ARDL and the Error Correction Model were useful to statistically estimate the elasticities of tourism demand.