• 산업공학
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.444-451
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• 2002

Recently, the interest in technology valuation is revived and increasing mainly due to the lack of suitability of the traditional valuation methods in explaining the market reaction to newly-emerging knowledge-oriented companies. Moreover, many firms are now gearing their efforts to the strategic use of technology asset such as technology licensing, transfer and commercialization. Firms are also trying to enhance their technological competitiveness by re-evaluating their technology level and thus identifying the strengths/weaknesses of their technology portfolio. To accomplish this objective, the development of an integrated evaluation system for technology assets is essential. This paper presents a technology valuation system developed for a steel manufacturing company in South Korea. The valuation framework is based on; (1) the multi-attribute evaluation of technological competitiveness using Analytic Hierarchical Process and; (2) the expected future benefit of the technology using four different methods of discounted cash flow estimation. The suggested framework will be easily applicable to various industries where technological competitiveness should be evaluated systematically.

• 산업공학
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.408-419
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• 2011

R&D is a foundation for new business chance and productivity improvement leading to enormous expense and a long-term multi-step process. During the R&D process, decision-makers are confused due to the various future uncertainties that influence economic and technical success of the R&D projects. For these reasons, several decision-making models for R&D project investment have been suggested; they are based on traditional methods such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) and Real Option Analysis (ROA) or some fusion forms of the traditional methods. However, almost of the models have constraints in practical use owing to limits on application, procedural complexity and incomplete reflection of the uncertainties. In this study, to make the constraints minimized, we propose a new model named Real Option Decision Tree Model which is a conceptual combination form of ROA and DTA. With this model, it is possible for the decision-makers to simulate the project value applying the uncertainties onto the decision making nodes.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.18-27
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• 2011

Management flexibility to adapt its future actions in response to altered future market conditions can expand the value of an investment opportunity by improving its upside potential without the change in the downside losses. Module manufacturers in solar industry continuously have to decide how much and when its production capacity should be expanded with regards to the demand in the global markets. Either over- or under-investment can cause sunk and/or opportunity costs to the module manufacturers. Option of exercising the additional investments only on favorable opportunities can increase total value of the investment. This paper analyzes the case which shows that the expansion of production capacity with more expandibility can have more value than the rigid plan of capacity expansion. The expansion option value is equivalent to KRW 38.286 billion, thus switching the negative NPV of the initial investment opportunity into the positive value. High volatility and the high growth in the cashflows as the major business features of the renewable energy provide condition where real options can play the crucial role in increasing the investment value as well as in determining the size and timing of capacity expansion in the course of capital budgeting process.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.84-102
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• 2006

이 논문은 생명공학 연구개발, 특히 인간유전체 기능연구사업의 가치를 평가하기 위해 실물옵션방법과 일반적인 DCF법을 사용한 결과를 비교한다. 평가에 사용된 모형은 구체적으로 옵션트리모형, 다이나믹DCF모형, 옵션방법DCF모형이고 일반적인 DCF모형은 실물옵션모형과의 비교를 위해 사용하였다. 평가 결과 7단계의 옵션트리모형이 가장 큰 금액으로 추정되어, 장기간이 소요되고 대규모의 연구개발비가 투자되는 신약개발의 초기 연구개발 가치를 평가절하하지 않는 것으로 판단된다. 한편 옵션트리모형의 평가과정에서 사용된 다양한 변수들이 변화시키는 민감도 분석을 수행한 결과, 매출액이 가치금액에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것을 확인했다. 다음으로는 후보물질 수, 단계별 성공확률이 평가금액에 영향을 미치고 있었다.

• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 2001년도 제19회 하계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.117-130
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• 2001

R&D is the core competence of an enterprise. Furthermore, R&D requires huge capital investment and has very risky characteristics. Therefore, to be successful in R&D process, several approaches of engineering economics are used prior to decision-making. Until now, typical approaches of engineering economics such as NPV(net present value) or DCF(Discounted cash flow) have been used. But, they cannot properly capture managerial flexibility to adapt and revise later decisions in response to unexpected market development. In a constantly changing and always uncertain marketplace, managerial operation flexibility and strategic adaptability have become vital in order to successfully capitalize on favorable future investment opportunities and limit losses from adverse market development. For the alternatives of conventional static decision-making approaches, new concept of using real options is introduced. Real option theory is based on financial option's characteristics and checks every revision interval whether situation have changed favorable to decision maker or not. In advantageous situation, the decision maker has only to go on. In contrast, with unfavorable situation, he abandons the investment immediately. In this aspect, real option model is more suitable in very uncertain and dynamic business environment in that it can provide the opportunity to cope with flexibility. This paper suggests efficient and effective R&D investment strategy by using real options model. In addition, this paper compares financial options and real options.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.159-177
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• 1998

Although each company is trying to develop an economic analysis model with its own particular style or format, the appropriate method is not yet developed because there are many problems to be solved such as uncertainity of outcomes and intangible benefits of technology. The purpose of tris paper therefore is to suggest an economic analysis methodology, which reflects the complexity and the risk of R&D investment, through a case study on the development of a superconductor fault current limiter. A self-developed Monte Carlo simulation program utilized as a main tool in this paper was very useful for risk analysis of R&D investment which could not be solved in the previous DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. We also introduce learning effect to consider the intangible benefits such as Know-How obtained from R&D execution. The expected value and its probability distribution for R&D investment can be obtained by combining the Monte Carlo method with the decision tree approach. This result is helpful in judging the priority and the resource-allocation of R&D projects. It is however necessary to develop more precise model for quantifying the technology stock and the simulation program using the continuous probability distribution in expected values to improve the reliability of economic analysis on R&D projects.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.1501-1510
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• 2014

Low voltage direct current (LVDC) distribution system is a suitable techno-economic candidate which can create an innovative solution for distribution network development with respect to rural electrification. This research focuses on the use of LVDC distribution system to replace some of KEPCO's existing traditional medium voltage alternating current (MVAC) distribution network for rural electrification in South Korea. Considering the technical and economic risks and benefits involved in such project, a comparative techno-economic analysis on the LVDC and the MVAC distribution networks is conducted using economic assessment method such as the net present value (NPV) on a discounted cash flow (DCF) basis as well as the sensitivity analysis technique. Each would play a role in an economic performance indicator and a measure of uncertainty and risk involved in the project. In this work, a simulation model and a computational tool are concurrently developed and employed to aid the techno-economic analysis, evaluation, and estimation of the various systems efficiency and/or performance.

• 청정기술
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.59-70
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• 2023

This study aims to introduce a biowaste processing system that uses spent coffee grounds and implement a real options method to evaluate the proposed process. Energy systems based on eco-friendly fuels lack sufficient data, and thus along with conventional approaches, they lack the techno-economic assessment required for great input qualities. On the other hand, real options analysis can estimate the different costs of options, such as continuing or abandoning a project, by considering uncertainties, which can lead to better decision-making. This study investigated the feasibility of a biowaste processing method using spent coffee grounds to produce biofuel and considered three different valuation models, which were the net present value using discounted cash flow, the Black-Scholes and binomial models. The suggested biowaste processing system consumes 200 kg/h of spent coffee grounds. The system utilizes a tilted-slide pyrolysis reactor integrated with a heat exchanger to warm the air, a combustor to generate a primary heat source, and a series of condensers to harness the biofuel. The result of the net present value is South Korean Won (KRW) -225 million, the result of the binomial model is KRW 172 million, and the result of the Black-Scholes model is KRW 1,301 million. These results reveal that a spent coffee ground-related biowaste processing system is worthy of investment from a real options valuation perspective.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.735-761
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• 2004

해외자원개발사업은 성공할 경우 높은 수익률을 보장하지만 장기적인 투자기간과 높은 시장위험부담으로 인하여 사업의 가치분석에 있어서 사업기간 동안의 여러 가지 변수들을 분석할 수 있는 유연성을 요구하고 있다. 기업의 투자 의사결정과정에서 가장 널리 이용되는 평가방법인 전통적 기존의 현금흐름할인법의 단점을 보완할 대안으로서 제시된 옵션가격 결정모형(Option Pricing Model)을 여타의 다른 자산의 평가 및 사업성 평가에 응용하고자 하는 연구 분야인 실물옵션(Real Options)은 특히 위험도가 큰 자원개발사업의 가치를 평가할 좋은 방법론으로 주목받아왔으나, 다양한 현실적 상황을 도입하게 되면 확률과정이 난해한 형태로 변하여 수학적 처리가 용이하지 않아 실용화에 가장 큰 걸림돌로 작용하고 있다. 따라서 기존의 연구들은 확률과정의 선정과정에서 자원개발사업의 특성이나 실용성을 고려하여 확률과정을 선정하지 않고 기초적인 확률과정을 적용하여 왔다. 본 연구에서는 해외자원개발사업을 대상으로 옵션가격 결정모형을 활용하는 경우를 산정하여, 해외자원개발사업의 평가에 쉽게 활용될 수 있는 단순화된 함수의 형태로 표현된 옵션가격 결정모형을 제시해 보았다. 즉, 이론적인 정교한 확률과정을 도출하기보다는 자원개발사업의 특징을 충분히 반영하면서도 사업평가실무에 손쉽게 이용될 수 있는 현실적이면서도 단순한 확률과정을 선정하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 구리, 연, 아연의 국제시장가격의 특성과 연-아연광 개발사업의 사례를 활용하여 기존의 모형연구들과 달리 실제의 위험을 모두 분석하되, 분석하는 모형을 최대한 단순화하여가는 과정을 통하여 Gibson-Schwartz가 제안한 Two-Factor Model과 Long-Term Asset Model을 적절한 모형으로 선정하고, 이를 바탕으로 운영옵션과 투자개시옵션의 두 가지 경영옵션을 분석하여 그 결과를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 분석, 제안한 단순화 과정은 앞으로 옵션가격 결정이론을 바탕으로 한 가치평가모형의 실제사례 적용연구에서 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.74-83
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• 2017

공공임대주택리츠는 임대기간이 만료되면 임차인이 우선 분양전환 할 수 있는 권리를 가지고 있다. 10년 공공임대주택의 분양전환 시점은 임대의무기간 후 공고되지만 공공주택 특별법의 개정으로 임대의무기간의 1/2만 지나면 임대인과 임차인의 합의하에 분양전환 할 수 있게 되었다. 이를 통해 자가 마련을 위한 수요는 많지만 임대사업자는 수익확보가 되지 않는다는 이유로 조기 분양전환에 소극적인 태도를 보이고 있으며, 분양전환가 산정에 있어 임대인과 임차인의 합의점 도출에 어려움이 있다. 또한 공공임대주택이 '리츠' 방식으로 공급되면서 조기분양전환 수익성에 관련된 이해관계자가 증가하여 임대주택의 공공성을 저해하고 공기업과 정부의 불신이 발생할 우려도 있다. 따라서 공공임대주택리츠의 수익성을 확보하고 공익적 목적을 동시에 실현할 수 있는 조기분양전환 적정시점 분석이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 임차인이 행사할 수 있는 분양전환권을 옵션의 특성으로 본다. 분석 대상인 '공공임대주택리츠'의 특성이 거시경제변수의 영향을 받을 것으로 고려되는 바 거시경제 상황의 변화에 따른 시나리오별 실물옵션 가치를 분석했다. DCF(Discountes Cash Flow) 모형에 의해 조기분양전환 적정시점 확보가 가능하다. 따라서 변수의 변동성을 예측하여 조기분양전환 시점을 고려해야 할 것으로 생각한다.