• 제목/요약/키워드: discounted cash flow

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Techno-economic Analysis of Power To Gas (P2G) Process for the Development of Optimum Business Model: Part 2 Methane to Electricity Production Pathway

  • Partho Sarothi Roy;Young Don Yoo;Suhyun Kim;Chan Seung Park
    • 청정기술
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2023
  • This study shows the summary of the economic performance of excess electricity conversion to hydrogen as well as methane and returned conversion to electricity using a fuel cell. The methane production process has been examined in a previous study. Here, this study focuses on the conversion of methane to electricity. As a part of this study, capital expenditure (CAPEX) is estimated under various sized plants (0.3, 3, 9, and 30 MW). The study shows a method for economic optimization of electricity generation using a fuel cell. The CAPEX and operating expenditure (OPEX) as well as the feed cost are used to calculate the discounted cash flow. Then the levelized cost of returned electricity (LCORE) is estimated from the discounted cash flow. This study found the LCORE value was ¢10.2/kWh electricity when a 9 MW electricity generating fuel cell was used. A methane production plant size of 1,500 Nm3/hr, a methane production cost of $11.47/mcf, a storage cost of $1/mcf, and a fuel cell efficiency of 54% were used as a baseline. A sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the storage cost, fuel cell efficiency, and excess electricity cost by ±20%, and fuel cell efficiency was found as the most dominating parameter in terms of the LCORE sensitivity. Therefore, for the best cost-performance, fuel cell manufacturing and efficiency need to be carefully evaluated. This study provides a general guideline for cost performance comparison with LCORE.

직무발명 보상액 산정 방법론의 개선 방안 연구 (A Study on Improvement of the Calculation Methodology of Employee Invention Compensation)

  • 조명근;이환수
    • 예술인문사회 융합 멀티미디어 논문지
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    • 제7권12호
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2017
  • 2016년 통계청의 자료에 따르면 법인의 직무발명 비중이 늘어나고 있음에도 불구하고, 정당한 직무발명보상을 실시하지 않는 기업은 56.9%나 되는 것으로 집계되었다. 하나의 원인은 객관적인 특허 기여율 산출 방식과 정당한 보상의 명확한 기준이 정립되지 못했기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 정당한 직무발명 보상금 산정을 위해 DCF (Discounted cash flow)와 AHP (Analytical hiearchy process) 방법론을 활용한 새로운 특허 기여율 산출 방식을 제시하고 이를 활용하여 실제 사례를 통해 검증하였다. 그 결과 기존 판례의 보상금 산정보다 2.3배 높은 금액이 산정되었으며 이는 정당한 보상금 산정에 있어 명확한 기준이 정립되지 않아 발명자 보호에 매우 미흡한 현 상황에서 조금 더 발명자를 보호할 수 있는 객관적인 보상금 산정 기준을 제시하고 있다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 본 방법론은 계산방법과 절차가 단순하여 중소기업을 위한 직무발명 보상 기법으로 활용 가능할 것으로 기대한다.

내부수익률을 이용한 수익률분석법에 대한 이해 (Understanding of a Rate of Return Analysis using an IRR)

  • 김진욱;이현주;차동수
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2002
  • A capital investment problem is essentially one of determining whether the anticipated cash inflows from a proposed project are sufficiently attractive to invest funds in the project. The net present value(NPV) criterion and internal rate of return(IRR) criterion are widely used as means of making investment decisions. A positive NPV means the equivalent worth of the inflows is greater than the equivalent worth of outflows, so, the project makes profit. Business people are familiar with rates of return because they all borrow money to finance ventures, even if the money they borrow is their own. Thus they are apt to use the IRR in preference to the NPV. The IRR can be defined as the discount rate that causes the net present value of a cash flow to equal zero. Why the project are accepted if the project's IRR is greater than the investor's minimum attractive rate of return\ulcorner Against the NPV, the definition cannot distinctly explain the concept of the IRR as decision criterion. We present a new definition of the IRR as the ratio of profit on the invested capital.

A Knowledge Integration Model for Corporate Dividend Prediction

  • Kim, Jin-Hwa;Won, Chae-Hwan;Bae, Jae-Kwon
    • 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영정보학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2008
  • Dividend is one of essential factors determining the value of a firm. According to the valuation theory in finance, discounted cash flow (DCF) is the most popular and widely used method for the valuation of any asset. Since dividends play a key role in the pricing of a firm value by DCF, it is natural that the accurate prediction of future dividends should be most important work in the valuation. Although the dividend forecasting is of importance in the real world for the purpose of investment and financing decision, it is not easy for us to find good theoretical models which can predict future dividends accurately except Marsh and Merton (1987) model. Thus, if we can develop a better method than Marsh and Merton in the prediction of future dividends, it can contribute significantly to the enhancement of a firm value. Therefore, the most important goal of this study is to develop a better method than Marsh and Merton model by applying artificial intelligence techniques.

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스위칭 옵션을 고려한 IT 벤처 기업 가치 평가에 관한 사례 연구

  • 이현정;정종욱;이정동;김태유
    • 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국기술혁신학회 2001년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.307-337
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, we propose the valuation frame of the IT(Information Technology) ventures using ROV(Real Options Valuation) model. Generally, ROV can comprises the traditional valuation method such as DCF(Discounted Cash Flow), which can measure only the tangible value of a firm from the expected future earnings, in that ROV can additionally measure the intangible value such as the strategic value of a firm in the uncertain environment. We set up the hypothetic IT venture future investment plan and assume that there are a growth option and a switching option consequently along the investment time horizon, which are caused by each characteristics of ventures and IT technologies, especially modularity. In the case that there are several embedded real options in the firm's investment plan in a row, we should apply the compound option pricing model as a real option valuation model in order to consider the value interaction between real options. In an addition, we present the results of optimal investment timing analysis using real options approach and compare them. with those of the original assumed investment timing.

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Elaboration of Real Options Model and the Adequacy of Volatility

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.225-244
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    • 2017
  • When evaluating the economic value of technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialization. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialization cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialization cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We at this moment provide more elaborated real options model with the effective region of volatility, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).

The Fundamental Understanding Of The Real Options Value Through Several Different Methods

  • Kim Gyutai;Choi Sungho
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2003년도 춘계공동학술대회
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    • pp.620-627
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    • 2003
  • The real option pricing theory has emerged as the new investment decision-making techniques superceding the traditional discounted cash flow techniques and thus has greatly received muck attention from academics and practitioners in these days the theory has been widely applied to a variety of corporate strategic projects such as a new drug R&D, an internet start-up. an advanced manufacturing system. and so on A lot of people who are interested in the real option pricing theory complain that it is difficult to understand the true meaning of the real option value. though. One of the most conspicuous reasons for the complaint may be due to the fact that there exit many different ways to calculate the real options value in this paper, we will present a replicating portfolio method. a risk-neutral probability method. a risk-adjusted discount rate method (quasi capital asset pricing method). and an opportunity cost concept-based method under the conditions of a binomial lattice option pricing theory.

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Determinants and Influential Factors in Technology Valuation in Korea

  • Park, Hyun-Woo;Shin, Woo-Taek
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2010
  • This study empirically analyzes the characteristics of the various attributes of technology that influence the economic values of technologies, based on the cases of technology valuation carried out in Korea. To do so, we collect the cases of technology valuation carried out by major technology valuation institutions in Korea and extract from these data the information about various characteristics of the subject technologies of valuation and the primary factors applied to the technology valuation. Based on such extracted information, we examine the overall trends of technology valuation in Korea and analyze how the main factors of technology valuation vary with the attributes of technology.

Managerial Involvement in Investment Decision: A Study of Hydropower Enterprises

  • Gautam, Dhruba Kumar;Dahal, Rewan Kumar
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2013
  • This study extends the extant scope of understanding investment decision, beyond the dominant 'technical' emphasis on the application of discounted cash flow techniques. The research methodology draws the positivist and interpretive research paradigms. It uses a deductive approach, survey strategy and principal component analysis for the analysis. Three key sets of factors emerged as important in the investment decision process in the hydropower sector. They are: group consensus (framing), influences on own judgment (heuristics), and application of knowledge & experience (intuition). The use of purposive and convenient sampling might have some unintended impact on the findings. Consequently, any generalizations of the findings to a wider population of organizations and managers need to be made with care. It is hoped that this paper will encourage other researchers to go beyond the analytic techniques of investment appraisal that have dominated investment decision research and seek to balance the emphasis by focusing on human involvement and behavioral aspects of investment decision.

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Using Real Options Pricing to Value Public R&D Investment in the Deep Seabed Manganese Nodule Project

  • Choi, Hyo-Yeon;Kwak, Seung-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This paper seeks to measure the monetary value of technical development in the deep seabed manganese nodule mining by applying the compound option model (COM). The COM is appropriate for the project in terms of its decision-making structure and embedded uncertainty. The estimation results show that the deep seabed mining project has more economic potential than shown by the previously obtained results from the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. In addition, it is reasonable to invest in the project taking the various uncertainty factors into consideration, because the ratio of the value to the cost of the project is far higher than one. This information can be utilized in national ocean policy decision-making.