• Title/Summary/Keyword: deterministic analysis

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An Analysis of Determinants of Elderly Medical Costs Inflation Using Deterministic Model (결정론적 모형에 의한 노인진료비 상승요인 분석)

  • Yu, Seung-Hum;Sohn, Myong-Sei;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.1 s.45
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study compares determinants of eldery medical cost inflation with those of other age groups by analysing aggregated data with a deterministic model. The deterministic model of per capita medical cost inflation consists of increases in price, intensity of services, and medical utilization. We used a time series data($1985{\sim}1991$) from National Medical Insurance and analyzed by age groups. In total population, the average increase rates of inpatient and outpatient medical costs were respectively 9.5% and 8.8% during 6 years and the major cause of inflation was the increase in service intensity in both of inpatient and outpatient cases. But in the population of 65 years old and over, the average increase rates of inpatient and outpatient medical costs were respectively 13.8% and 14.8% and the major cause of inflation was the increase in per-capita medical utilization in both of inpatient and outpatient cases. Also, the increase in service intensity of 65 years old and over was the highest of other age groups. This pattern was similar during study periods. We concluded that the level of medical cost-inflation and the determinants in eldery was the highest-especially in per capita medical utilization, therfore, the inflation of medical costs in eldery will be higher than other age groups for the furture in Korea.

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RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION OF AN AUTOMOTIVE SUSPENSION SYSTEM FOR ENHANCING KINEMATIC AND COMPLIANCE CHARACTERISTICS

  • CHOI B.-L.;CHOI J.-H.;CHOI D.-H.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.235-242
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    • 2005
  • This study introduces the Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) to enhance the kinematic and compliance (K & C) characteristics of automotive suspension system. In previous studies, the deterministic optimization has been performed to enhance the K & C characteristics. Unfortunately, uncertainties in the real world have not been considered in the deterministic optimization. In the design of suspension system, design variables with the uncertainties, such as the bushing stiffness, have a great influence on the variation of the suspension performances. There is a need to quantify these uncertainties and to apply the RBDO to obtain the design, satisfying the target reliability level. In this research, design variables including uncertainties are dealt as random variables and reliability of the suspension performances, which are related the K & C characteristics, are quantified and the RBDO is performed. The RBD-optimum is compared with the deterministic optimum to verify the enhancement in reliability. Thus, the reliability of the suspension performances is estimated and the RBD-optimum, satisfying the target reliability level, is determined.

Probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement

  • Song, Jun-Ho;Kang, Won-Hee;Kim, Kang-Su;Jung, Sung-Moon
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.15-38
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    • 2010
  • In order to predict the shear strengths of reinforced concrete beams, many deterministic models have been developed based on rules of mechanics and on experimental test results. While the constant and variable angle truss models are known to provide reliable bases and to give reasonable predictions for the shear strengths of members with shear reinforcement, in the case of members without shear reinforcement, even advanced models with complicated procedures may show lack of accuracy or lead to fairly different predictions from other similar models. For this reason, many research efforts have been made for more accurate predictions, which resulted in important recent publications. This paper develops probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement based on deterministic shear strength models, understanding of shear transfer mechanisms and influential parameters, and experimental test results reported in the literature. Using a Bayesian parameter estimation method, the biases of base deterministic models are identified as algebraic functions of input parameters and the errors of the developed models remaining after the bias-correction are quantified in a stochastic manner. The proposed probabilistic models predict the shear strengths with improved accuracy and help incorporate the model uncertainties into vulnerability estimations and risk-quantified designs.

Service ORiented Computing EnviRonment (SORCER) for deterministic global and stochastic aircraft design optimization: part 1

  • Raghunath, Chaitra;Watson, Layne T.;Jrad, Mohamed;Kapania, Rakesh K.;Kolonay, Raymond M.
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.297-316
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    • 2017
  • With rapid growth in the complexity of large scale engineering systems, the application of multidisciplinary analysis and design optimization (MDO) in the engineering design process has garnered much attention. MDO addresses the challenge of integrating several different disciplines into the design process. Primary challenges of MDO include computational expense and poor scalability. The introduction of a distributed, collaborative computational environment results in better utilization of available computational resources, reducing the time to solution, and enhancing scalability. SORCER, a Java-based network-centric computing platform, enables analyses and design studies in a distributed collaborative computing environment. Two different optimization algorithms widely used in multidisciplinary engineering design-VTDIRECT95 and QNSTOP-are implemented on a SORCER grid. VTDIRECT95, a Fortran 95 implementation of D. R. Jones' algorithm DIRECT, is a highly parallelizable derivative-free deterministic global optimization algorithm. QNSTOP is a parallel quasi-Newton algorithm for stochastic optimization problems. The purpose of integrating VTDIRECT95 and QNSTOP into the SORCER framework is to provide load balancing among computational resources, resulting in a dynamically scalable process. Further, the federated computing paradigm implemented by SORCER manages distributed services in real time, thereby significantly speeding up the design process. Part 1 covers SORCER and the algorithms, Part 2 presents results for aircraft panel design with curvilinear stiffeners.

Service ORiented Computing EnviRonment (SORCER) for deterministic global and stochastic aircraft design optimization: part 2

  • Raghunath, Chaitra;Watson, Layne T.;Jrad, Mohamed;Kapania, Rakesh K.;Kolonay, Raymond M.
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.317-334
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    • 2017
  • With rapid growth in the complexity of large scale engineering systems, the application of multidisciplinary analysis and design optimization (MDO) in the engineering design process has garnered much attention. MDO addresses the challenge of integrating several different disciplines into the design process. Primary challenges of MDO include computational expense and poor scalability. The introduction of a distributed, collaborative computational environment results in better utilization of available computational resources, reducing the time to solution, and enhancing scalability. SORCER, a Java-based network-centric computing platform, enables analyses and design studies in a distributed collaborative computing environment. Two different optimization algorithms widely used in multidisciplinary engineering design-VTDIRECT95 and QNSTOP-are implemented on a SORCER grid. VTDIRECT95, a Fortran 95 implementation of D. R. Jones' algorithm DIRECT, is a highly parallelizable derivative-free deterministic global optimization algorithm. QNSTOP is a parallel quasi-Newton algorithm for stochastic optimization problems. The purpose of integrating VTDIRECT95 and QNSTOP into the SORCER framework is to provide load balancing among computational resources, resulting in a dynamically scalable process. Further, the federated computing paradigm implemented by SORCER manages distributed services in real time, thereby significantly speeding up the design process. Part 1 covers SORCER and the algorithms, Part 2 presents results for aircraft panel design with curvilinear stiffeners.

Feedback control of intelligent structures with uncertainties and its robustness analysis

  • Cao, Zongjie;Wen, Bangchun;Kuang, Zhenbang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2003
  • Variations in system parameters due to uncertainties of parameters may result in system performance deterioration and create system internal stability problems. Uncertainties in structural modeling of structures are often considered to ensure that the control system is robust with respect to response errors. So the uncertain concept plays an important role in the analysis and design of the engineering structures. In this paper, the active control of the intelligent structures with the uncertainties is studied and a new method for analyzing the robustness of systems with the uncertainties is presented. Firstly, the system with uncertain parameters is considered as the perturbation of the system with deterministic parameters. Secondly, the feedback control law is designed on the basis of deterministic system. Thirdly, perturbation analysis and robustness analysis of intelligent structures with uncertainties are discussed when the feedback control law is applied to the original system and perturbed system. Combining the convex model of uncertainties with the finite element method, the analysis theory of the robustness of intelligent structures with the uncertainties can be developed. The description and computation of the robustness of intelligent structures with uncertain parameters is obtained. Finally, a numerical example of the application of the present method is given to show the validity of the method.

Deterministic Water Quality Analysis in the Midstream of the Nakdong River (낙동강 중류부에서의 확정론적 수질해석)

  • 한건연;이정식
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 1994
  • Water quality analysis in the midstream of the Nakdong river is studied. Deterministic model RQ1 which contains two code, RQ1-1 for hydrologic and hydraulic analysis and RQ1-2 for water quality analysis are developed. Monthly mean and minimum discharges in the basin (from Waegwan to Jindong) are estimated. A varied flow analysis is performed based on the geometric data of channel and RQ-1 model. The maximum concentration of BOD and minimum concentration of DO are occurred at the confluence of Keumho river and immediately downstream of Hyunpoong, respectively. The computed concentrations of BOD at several points have good agreements with observed data. Maximum allowable BOD loads from the Keumho River are provided to attain the goal of water quality in the basin.

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Nonlinear Correlation Dimension Analysis of EEG and HRV (뇌파의 상관차원과 HRV의 상관분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Gyun;Park, Young-Bae;Park, Young-Jae;Kim, Min-Yong
    • The Journal of the Society of Korean Medicine Diagnostics
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.84-95
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    • 2007
  • Background and Purpose: We have studied the trends of EEG signals in the voluntary breathing condition by applying the fractal analysis. According to chaos theory, irregularity of EEG signals can result from low dimensional deterministic chaos. A principal parameter to quantify the degree of Chaotic nonlinear dynamics is correlation dimension. The aim of this study was to analyze correlation between the correlation dimension of EEG and HRV(heart rate variability). We have studied the trends of EEG signals in the voluntary breathing condition by applying the fractal analysis. Methods: EEG raw data were measured by moving windows during 15 minutes. Then, the correlation dimension(D2) was calculated by each 40-seconds-segment in 15 minutes data, totally 36 segments. 8 channels EEG study on the Fp, F, T, P was carried out in 30 subjects. Results and Conclusion: Correlation analysis of HRV was calculated with deterministic non-linear data and stochastic non-linear data. 1. Ch1(Fp1), Ch4(F3), Ch4(F4) is positive correlated with In LF. 2. Ch1(Fp1), Ch3(F3) is positive correlated with In TF.

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Probabilistic stability analysis of rock slopes with cracks

  • Zhu, J.Q.;Yang, X.L.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2018
  • To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

Jeju Jong Nang Channel Code II (제주 정낭 채널 Code II)

  • Lee, Moon Ho;Khan, Md. Hashem Ali;Park, Ju Yong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.36-44
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    • 2012
  • We had introduced the backgrounds, history and physical meanings of Jong Nang in "Jeju Jong Nang Channel Code I". In this paper, we introduce practical the root of digital human binary coded Jong Nang communications as the wooden gate in Korea Jeju Island custom. We investigate Jong Nang gatemodels as an approximation of the AWGN model. The objective is to find a deterministic model, which is accessible to capacity analysis. Furthermore, this analysis should provide insights on the capacity of the AWGN model. Motivated by backhaul cooperation in cellular networks where cooperation is among base stations, we term the interference channel with conferencing transmitters. Jong Nang communicationsis normal 3 rafters placed on two vertical stones with three holes to convey the family's whereabouts that is deterministic signal, nowadays it is applied to backhaul in mobile base station and traffic signal.