• Title/Summary/Keyword: determination probability function

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A new high-order response surface method for structural reliability analysis

  • Li, Hong-Shuang;Lu, Zhen-Zhou;Qiao, Hong-Wei
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.779-799
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    • 2010
  • In order to consider high-order effects on the actual limit state function, a new response surface method is proposed for structural reliability analysis by the use of high-order approximation concept in this study. Hermite polynomials are used to determine the highest orders of input random variables, and the sampling points for the determination of highest orders are located on Gaussian points of Gauss-Hermite integration. The cross terms between two random variables, only in case that their corresponding percent contributions to the total variation of limit state function are significant, will be added to the response surface function to improve the approximation accuracy. As a result, significant reduction in computational cost is achieved with this strategy. Due to the addition of cross terms, the additional sampling points, laid on two-dimensional Gaussian points off axis on the plane of two significant variables, are required to determine the coefficients of the approximated limit state function. All available sampling points are employed to construct the final response surface function. Then, Monte Carlo Simulation is carried out on the final approximation response surface function to estimate the failure probability. Due to the use of high order polynomial, the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional second-order or linear response surface method. It also provides much more efficient solutions than the available high-order response surface method with less loss in accuracy. The efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method compared with those of various response surface methods available are illustrated by five numerical examples.

Determination of Maintenance Period and Failure Probability for Turbine Using Maintenance Record (터빈설비의 정비이력을 이용한 고장확률 예측 및 정비주기 설정에의 응용)

  • Song, Gee-Wook;Koo, Jae-Raeyang;Choi, Woo-Sung
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.9
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    • pp.1325-1330
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    • 2010
  • The breakdown of any critical component of a turbine results in the outage of power plants. Unexpected failure decreases equipment utilization and causes enormous economic losses. Currently, we conduct conservative preventive maintenance for a maintenance period that is proposed by a vendor. In the rapidly changing business environment, reliability-based maintenance is required in order to remain competitive and reduce maintenance costs while maintaining the reliability of equipment. In order to determine an appropriate maintenance period for guaranteeing reliability, we must determine the failure probability by carefully analyzing the failure history of the equipment. In this study, we created a database of failure history for power-plant turbines, predicted the best repair time using the Weibull function, and investigated how the appropriate maintenance cycle can be determined.

Reduction of Air-pumping Noise based on a Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 타이어 공력소음의 저감)

  • Kim, Eui-Youl;Hwang, Sung-Wook;Kim, Byung-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Kwon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2012
  • The paper presents the novel approach to solve some problems occurred in application of the genetic algorithm to the determination of the optimal tire pattern sequence in order to reduce the tire air-pumping noise which is generated by the repeated compression and expansion of the air cavity between tire pattern and road surface. The genetic algorithm has been used to find the optimal tire pattern sequence having a low level of tire air-pumping noise using the image based air-pumping model. In the genetic algorithm used in the previous researches, there are some problems in the encoding structure and the selection of objective function. The paper proposed single encoding element with five integers, divergent objective function based on evolutionary process and the optimal evolutionary rate based on Shannon entropy to solve the problems. The results of the proposed genetic algorithm with evolutionary process are compared with those of the randomized algorithm without evolutionary process on the two-dimensional normal distribution. It is confirmed that the genetic algorithm is more effective to reduce the peak value of the predicted tire air-pumping noise and the consistency and cohesion of the obtained simulation results are also improved in terms of probability.

Calculation of Interaction Parameters in Mixed Layer Minerals and their Application (층상형 혼합광물의 상호작용계수의 계산 및 응용)

  • 이성근;김수진
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 1997
  • Based on the method of determination for relative stability of each phase from the difference among the interaction parameters of the phases consisting the mixed layer, the types of interactions between layers were specified and interaction parameter between layers in ordered domain was analytically derived as a function parameter between layers in ordered domain was analytically derived as a function of not only temperature and mole fraction of layers but also ordering parameter. Interaction parameter between the different layers in ordered phase, L is as follows:{{{{ {L }_{1 } (X,Q,T)= { C} over { Q} -4(1-2Q) { L}^{2 } - { RT} over {2} ln { 1} over {2 } - { 2RT} over { { X}_{ s} } ln { { 4QX}`_{s } ^{2 } } over {(1- { X}_{s }- { QX}_{s })( { X}_{s }- {QX }_{s } ) } }}}}L2 is the interaction parameter between ordered and disordered phase in domain and is the mole fraction of the domain which represent the infinite length of mixed layer mineral and Q and C are the reaction progress parameter and arbitrary constant, respectively. This equation was used for the I/S mixed layer clay minerals to infer the relative stability of R1 type I/S mixed layer in the temperature range from 373K to 450K. The result of calculation suggest that, owing to the decrease in interaction parameter with increasing temperature. The interaction parameter decreases more rapidly with decreasing mole fraction of smectite in domain, which is consistent with the fact that the probability of finding the series smectite layer is lo in the domain with small mole fraction of smectite layers in natural system.

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Evaluation and Comparison of the Solubility Models for Solute in Monosolvents

  • Min-jie Zhi;Wan-feng Chen;Yang-bo Xi
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2024
  • The solubility of Cloxacillin sodium in ethanol, 1-propanol, isopropanol, and acetone solutions was measured at different temperatures. The melting property was also tested by using a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC). Then, the solubility data were fitted using Apelblat equation and λh equation, respectively. The Wilson model and NRTL model were not utilized to correlate the test data, since Cloxacillin sodium will decompose directly after melting. For comparison purposes, the four empirical models, i.e., Apelblat equation, λh equation, Wilson model and NRTL Model, were evaluated by using 1155 solubility curves of 103 solutes tested under different monosolvents and temperatures. The comparison results indicate that the Apelblat equation is superior to the others. Furthermore, a new method (named the calculation method) for determining the Apelblat equation using only three data points was proposed to solve the problem that there may not be enough solute in the determination of solubility. The log-logistic distribution function was used to further capture the trend of the correlation and to make better quantitative comparison between predicted data and the experimental ones for the Apelblat equation determined by different methods (fitting method or calculation method). It is found that the proposed calculation method not only greatly reduces the number of test data points, but also has satisfactory prediction accuracy.

Geographical Impact on the Annual Maximum Rainfall in Korean Peninsula and Determination of the Optimal Probability Density Function (우리나라 연최대강우량의 지형학적 특성 및 이에 근거한 최적확률밀도함수의 산정)

  • Nam, Yoon Su;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.251-263
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    • 2015
  • This study suggested a novel approach of estimating the optimal probability density function (OPDF) of the annual maximum rainfall time series (AMRT) combining the L-moment ratio diagram and the geographical information system. This study also reported several interesting geographical characteristics of the AMRT in Korea. To achieve this purpose, this study determined the OPDF of the AMRT with the duration of 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hours using the method of L-moment ratio diagram for each of the 67 rain gages in Korea. Then, a map with the Thiessen polygons of the 67 rain gages colored differently according the different type of the OPDF, was produced to analyze the spatial trend of the OPDF. In addition, this study produced the color maps which show the fitness of a given probability density function to represent the AMRT. The study found that (1) both L-skewness and L-kurtosis of the AMRT have clear geographical trends, which means that the extreme rainfall events are highly influenced by geography; (2) the impact of the altitude on these two rainfall statistics is greater for the mountaneous region than for the non-mountaneous region. In the mountaneous region, the areas with higher altitude are more likely to experience the less-frequent and strong rainfall events than the areas with lower altitude; (3) The most representative OPDFs of Korea except for the Southern edge are Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Logistic distribution. The AMRT of southern edge of Korea was best represented by the Generalized Pareto distribution.

Determination of Resetting Time to the Process Mean Shift with Failure (고장을 고려한 공정평균 이동에 대한 조정시기 결정)

  • Lee, Do-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2019
  • All machines deteriorate in performance over time. The phenomenon that causes such performance degradation is called deterioration. Due to the deterioration, the process mean of the machine shifts, process variance increases due to the expansion of separate interval, and the failure rate of the machine increases. The maintenance model is a matter of determining the timing of preventive maintenance that minimizes the total cost per wear between the relation to the increasing production cost and the decreasing maintenance cost. The essential requirement of this model is that the preventive maintenance cost is less than the failure maintenance cost. In the process mean shift model, determining the resetting timing due to increasing production costs is the same as the maintenance model. In determining the timing of machine adjustments, there are two differences between the models. First, the process mean shift model excludes failure from the model. This model is limited to the period during the operation of the machine. Second, in the maintenance model, the production cost is set as a general function of the operating time. But in the process mean shift model, the production cost is set as a probability functions associated with the product. In the production system, the maintenance cost of the equipment and the production cost due to the non-confirming items and the quality loss cost are always occurring simultaneously. So it is reasonable that the failure and process mean shift should be dealt with at the same time in determining the maintenance time. This study proposes a model that integrates both of them. In order to reflect the actual production system more accurately, this integrated model includes the items of process variance function and the loss function according to wear level.

Reliability-based Design Method of Concrete Armour Units with Structural Stability (구조적 안정성을 고려한 콘크리트 피복재의 신뢰성 설계)

  • Lee Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.142-151
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    • 2004
  • A method for the determination of concrete armor unit weights with hydraulic stability and structural stability may be formulated in this paper. The hydraulic stability is analyzed by using Hudson's formula, the structural stability is also studied by evaluation of maximum flexural tensile stresses in armor unit induced by the impact loads and by comparison of those with the tensile resistance strength directly. The applicable criteria for concrete armor units can be represented as a function of design wave heights with return period, armor weights, and tensile strengths for the practical uses. In addition, reliability analyses for two failure modes are carried out to take into account some uncertainties. Finally, a series system for two-failure mode analysis can be made up straightforwardly, by which the optimal weights of armor units can be estimated with the various relative breakages, given the specific target probability of failure under the concepts of reliability-based design method.

Real time detection and recognition of traffic lights using component subtraction and detection masks (성분차 색분할과 검출마스크를 통한 실시간 교통신호등 검출과 인식)

  • Jeong Jun-Ik;Rho Do-Whan
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.43 no.2 s.308
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2006
  • The traffic lights detection and recognition system is an essential module of the driver warning and assistance system. A method which is a color vision-based real time detection and recognition of traffic lights is presented in this paper This method has four main modules : traffic signals lights detection module, traffic lights boundary candidate determination module, boundary detection module and recognition module. In traffic signals lights detection module and boundary detection module, the color thresholding and the subtraction value of saturation and intensity in HSI color space and detection probability mask for lights detection are used to segment the image. In traffic lights boundary candidate determination module, the detection mask of traffic lights boundary is proposed. For the recognition module, the AND operator is applied to the results of two detection modules. The input data for this method is the color image sequence taken from a moving vehicle by a color video camera. The recorded image data was transformed by zooming function of the camera. And traffic lights detection and recognition experimental results was presented in this zoomed image sequence.

Sample Size Determination of Univariate and Bivariate Ordinal Outcomes by Nonparametric Wilcoxon Tests (단변량 및 이변량 순위변수의 비모수적 윌콕슨 검정법에 의한 표본수 결정방법)

  • Park, Hae-Gang;Song, Hae-Hiang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1249-1263
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    • 2009
  • The power function in sample size determination has to be characterized by an appropriate statistical test for the hypothesis of interest. Nonparametric tests are suitable in the analysis of ordinal data or frequency data with ordered categories which appear frequently in the biomedical research literature. In this paper, we study sample size calculation methods for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for one- and two-dimensional ordinal outcomes. While the sample size formula for the univariate outcome which is based on the variances of the test statistic under both null and alternative hypothesis perform well, this formula requires additional information on probability estimates that appear in the variance of the test statistic under alternative hypothesis, and the values of these probabilities are generally unknown. We study the advantages and disadvantages of different sample size formulas with simulations. Sample sizes are calculated for the two-dimensional ordinal outcomes of efficacy and safety, for which bivariate Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test is appropriate than the multivariate parametric test.