• 한국항해학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.11-22
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• 1999

This paper is concerned with the development of a tractable model to assist liner shipping companies in the decision-making of empty container repositioning and leasing. A hybrid methodology is presented which properly accounts for the specific characteristics of empty container management. For this mathematical models are developed based on dynamic network models, covering both land and marine segment. Then a stochastic method is presented to deal with the uncertainty of the future demand and supply. Especially, the concept of opportunity cost has been introduced in order to explain interactions between the variation of the future demand and supply and the stock level at each depot.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.656-659
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• 2004

As the demand for traceable calibrations of torque measuring devices has considerably increased both in the production sector and in research institutes, suitable standard machines had to be developed at the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science. Owing to its special design, the small uncertainty of measurement required for the realization of the static torque can be reached (relative uncertainty of measurement ＆lt; 5$\times$10$^{-5}$ in the measurement range between 500 and 2000 Nm, and ＆lt; 1$\times$10$^{-4}$ in the measurement range from 10 to 500 Nm). The relative discrepancy between our torque calibration results of 2 kNm and PTB s (Physikalisch Technische Bundesanstalt, Germany) results was less than 2$\times$10$^{-5}$ , which confirming our uncertainty estimation.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제57권9호
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• pp.1500-1506
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• 2008

In this paper, we proposed new reliability characteristic curve, which-can clearly show reliability property of transmission and substation system considering uncertainty such as frequency and duration of device fault. It express the relationship of duration of load curtailments, demand not supplied, and energy not served as “ y = $ax^{-1}$ " curve. and we proposed the method, which can objectively assess reliability of transmission and substation system using proposed characteristic curve as new reliability index. In this method, we used energy index of reliability(EIR) as a criterion of assessment. Finally, we performed a variety of case study for KEPCO system in order to verify usefulness of proposed method.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.61-74
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of sharing uncertain yield information with a downstream supply chain player. We are interested in understanding how the amount of yield uncertainty affects the supply-side benefits and/or costs, which has not been considered in the literature, in addition to the customer-side benefits. With that purpose, this work evaluates a supplier who provides yield information in comparison with another supplier who shares no information. We simulate an order-up-to type heuristic policy that is adapted from the literature and reasonably modified to represent yield information sharing with error. From the simulation study, we argue that the customer would experience cost reduction, but the cost for supplier's inventory is increasing when sharing yield information. Furthermore, the amount of benefits and costs are situational and affected by level of yield uncertainty and demand variance. Based on the simulation study, we finally make several recommendations for the supply-side approaches to yield information sharing.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.89-102
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• 2010

미래의 기후조건과 생활패턴의 불확실성으로 인해 미래용수수요 또한 불확실성을 가지며, 이는 충분한 용수공급을 목적으로 하는 댐 운영에 어려움을 초래한다. 따라서 가용 수자원을 최대한 활용하여 충분한 용수분배를 하는 동시에, 홍수와 가뭄에 대한 대비까지 가능한 댐의 운영은 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 미래의 불확실한 용수수요량을 정확히 알지 못하는 상태에서 저수지의 운영을 통한 저류량을 1단계에서 결정하고, 2단계에서 용수수요에 따른 용수공급량과 하천유지유량을 결정하기 위한 최적화 모형을 2단계 추계학적 선형계획법을 이용하여 구축하고, 목표저류량과 실제 저류량의 차이, 용수공급과 하천유지유량의 부족량을 최소화하기 위한 저수지 운영 규칙을 최적화하였다. 또한 가뭄시 보다 현실적이고 효율적인 저수지 운영을 위해 댐저류량에 따라 댐 계획방류량을 일정비율 줄여주는 Hedging Rule을 사용하여 모형의 적절성과 적용성을 향상시켰다. 제안된 모형은 한강수계의 댐들 중 다목적댐인 충주, 횡성, 소양강 댐과 용수전용댐인 광동 댐, 그리고 발전용 댐이지만 비교적 큰 저류용량을 가진 화천 댐을 연계 운영 대상으로 하여, 미래 용수수요량 시나리오를 고려한 최적화를 실시하였다. 그 결과 모든 시나리오에서 생공용수, 농업용수, 하천유지용수 공급량을 대부분 만족시킬 수 있었고, 댐의 저류량 역시 갈수기 용수공급에 대비하여 홍수기인 6월 말에서 9월 중순에 저류량을 확보하면서도 홍수피해저감까지 고려하는 운영이 가능하였다. 이는 다목적 댐들의 연계운영을 위한 저수지 운영규칙결정에 매우 중요한 지표가 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2012

Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.581-605
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• 2018

In the soft drink industry, especially small and medium enterprises in Japan, there is a possibility of conversion from a labor-intensive industry to a capital-intensive. The demand for soft drinks may not be satisfied in the summer because the supply is too low to meet the demand. To address this situation, this paper proposes optimal investment that integrates demand uncertainty, based on real options approach (ROA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Two alternative options are compared and evaluated. One is the Bermudan option: to employ additional workers to elevate efficiency in summer and laying off in winter, this attitude is repeated each year. The other is the American option: to replace equipment to increase machine ability throughout the year. Results in ROA show that the highest improvement is gained if the two options are in a symbiotic relationship. Soft drink producers should search for replacing equipment, using the employees repeatedly. A temporary decision is not equal to an infinite decision.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제43권6호
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• pp.462-468
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• 2019

해양석유 생산은 예기치 못한 유가 하락과 글로벌 석유물류의 변화로 인한 여러 가지 어려움에 직면하고 있다. 이 연구는 불확실성하의 해양석유생산 최적화를 위한 추계적 모형을 제시한다. 제시된 추계적 모형은 강인한 최적화 모형과 리코스 제한 최적화 모형을 사용하고 리코스 이익 변동의 척도로 하위부분평균을 사용한다. 제안된 모형을 바탕으로 불확실성 하의 원유의 가격과 수요에 관한 시나리오 기반의 자료를 사용하여 수행한 계산실험 및 결과를 검토하여 보고하였다. 이 연구는 불학실성 하에서 위험을 고려한 해양석유생산 문제에 대한 의사결정에 유의하게 적용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국전자거래학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전자거래학회 2004년도 e-Biz World Conference
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• pp.197-204
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• 2004

불확실성 시대의 도래 시장 Drivers-e.g. 전자산업 급변하는 시장 ·급변하는 시장 -매시각 변화하는 시장에 대한 예측 ·모든 요소들이 월스트리트와 사업 신뢰도에 영향(9/11., The War, SARS 등) ·때로는 위험 요소들이 기회로 반전 기업가치 극대화 ·많은 전자산업의 감소하는 고객보유량 ·투자자들은 완고하고 공격적이다.(중략)

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.1719-1728
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• 2017

Recent concerns about environmental conditions have triggered the growing interest in using green energy resources. These sources of energy, however, bring new challenges mainly due to their uncertainty and intermittency. In order to alleviate the concerns on the penetration of intermittent energy resources, this paper investigates impacts of realizing demand-side potentials. Among different demand-side management programs, this paper considers demand response wherein consumers change their consumption pattern in response to changing prices. The research studies demand response potentials from different load sectors on generation system well-being. Consumers' sensitivity to time-varying prices is captured via self and cross elasticity coefficients. In the calculation of well-being indices, sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach is accompanied with fuzzy logic. Finally, IEEE-RTS is used as the test bed to conduct several simulations and the associated results are thoroughly discussed.