• 제목/요약/키워드: demand estimation

검색결과 833건 처리시간 0.022초

Motion and sloshing analysis for new concept of offshore storage unit

  • Ha, Mun-Keun;Kim, Mun-Sung;Paik, Bu-Keun;Park, Chung-Hum
    • 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국해양공학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.189-195
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    • 2000
  • New concept of LNG-FPSO ship with moonpool and bilge step in bottom is considered and investigated in the point of motion reduction and sloshing phenomena of the cargo and operation tanks. The cargo capacity of the ship of which principle dimensions is L x B x D x t(design) =270.0 x 51.0 x 32.32 x 13.7(m) 16K at 98% loading condition. The two moonpools and rectangular step at bilge part are setted up specially for getting the effect of motion decrease. For the motion analysis, linearized three dimensional diffraction theory with the simplified boundary conditions is used. The six-degree of freedom coupled motion responses are calculated for the LNG-FPSO ship. Viscous effects on the roll motion responses of a vessel are taken into account in this calculation program using an empirical formula suggested by Ikeda, Himeno and Tanaka is used. The case study for the moonpool size had been carried out by theoretical estimation and experimental method. For the optimization of the moonpool size and effect of the step, 9 cases of its size and with and without step are considered. From the results of calculation and experiment, it can be concluded that this designed LNG-FPSO ship have possibility to carry out her missions in the rough sea as for the owner's demand waves condition. The motion responses, especially roll motion, for the designed LNG-FPSO ship are much lower than those of another drillship and shuttle tanker and limit criterions are satisfied. For the check of the cargo tank and operation tank sizes we have performed sloshing analysis in the irregular waves which focuses on the pressure distribution on the tank wall and the time history of pressure and free surface for No.2 and No5. tanks of LNG-FPSO with chamfers. Finally we got the tank size which has no resonance and no impact pressure in all filling in the bow quartering and beam sea.

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무한 평면체에 존재하는 복수 표면균열의 성장에 대한 수명예측용 시뮬레이션 개발에 관한 연구 (A Program Development of Life Prediction Simulation for Multi-Surface Cracks on the Finite Plate)

  • 황남성;서창민;남승훈
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 1997
  • The social demand urges us to use some equipments and structures in high temperature environment. By this occasion, the necessity of studying the fatigue crack growth is an important aspect of new materials. However, the present situation is rarely to accumulate the fatigue data. Especially, 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel have been increased to be used under the severe condition of high temperature. And so, the fatigue estimation of those materials is important and appropriate. Fatigue tests have been carried out to examine the crack initiation, growth behaviour for the small fatigue crack of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel at room temperature and 538^{\circ}C$. The remote measurement system which has many merits of checking and saving the image for detailed examination was applied to closely detect the crack length. Generally, the fatigue crack initiated in the form of multiple cracks and grew each other. And then it coalesced to become a major crack. The major crack governed the rest of the fatigue life. In the growing process, each peripheral cracks interact and grow for a certain period. After then, it coalesced and fractured. On the basis of the above experimental data for the small crack, a simulation program was developed to predict the residual life time and to estimate the integrity of machine elements and structures. At the same time, the simulation was extended to 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel. The simulation results have shown a good agreement to those of the experimental ones for both materials of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel and 304 stainless steel with small cracks. The NASCRAC has applied to compare the fatigue life with the experimental results. And so, it can be said that the simulation program is valuable tools to the industrial fields.

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경암의 취성도와 TBM 순굴진율간의 관계 (Relationship between brittleness index of hard rocks and TBM penetration rates)

  • 이기준;권태혁;김경열;송기일
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.611-634
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    • 2017
  • 도시의 발전에 따라 전력선, 통신선, 상하수도배관 등을 공동으로 수용하는 공동구의 수요는 점점 증가할 것으로 예상되고 있으며 따라서 앞으로 TBM을 이용한 터널시공이 증가할 것으로 예상된다. TBM을 이용한 터널 건설시 굴진율 예측은 공기와 공사비 책정의 중요한 요소이다. 현재, NTNU model, CSM model 등의 TBM 굴진율 예측방법이 있지만, 이 방법들은 많은 입력 인자들을 필요로 한다. 본 논문은 문헌조사를 통해 다양한 여러 지반 물성인자들 중, 경암의 취성지수 (Brittleness index)와 TBM 순굴진율간의 관계를 도출하고자 하였다. 특히, 인장강도와 압축강도의 함수인 취성지수는 그 정의에 따라 순굴진율과 관계가 다르고 매우 큰 분산을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 TBM 순굴진율 예측에서 암반물성 중 취성도가 지니는 의미를 제시하고 있다.

국내 3대 주요 컨테이너항만의 장래 컨테이너선박 교통량 추정 (The Estimation of the Future Container Ship Traffic for Three Major Ports in Korea)

  • 김정훈
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.353-359
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    • 2007
  • 컨테이너항만의 물동량이 증가하는 추세에서 장래에 발생될 컨테이너선박의 교통량을 예측한다면 항만의 효율적인 계획과 운영관리를 사전에 수립할 수 있다. 해상교통 관점에서도 컨테이너선박의 입 출항 척수를 장기적으로 추정하고, 이를 근거로 해상교통수요를 원활하게 처리할 수 있는 합리적인 방안을 계획할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 전국항만 기본계획에서 제시된 부산항, 광양항, 인천항의 컨테이너 물동량 예측자료를 토대로 각 항만에 대한 컨테이너선의 장래 입 출항 교통량을 추정하였다. 이를 위해서 컨테이너선박의 척당 물동량 추세를 ARIMA 모형을 통해 예측하고, 계절지수를 산출하였다. 이와 같이 예측된 척당 물동량을 2011년, 2015년, 그리고 2020년의 컨테이너 물동량에 대비시켜 발생예상의 해상교통량을 추정하였다.

고속도로 영업소간 기.종점통행량으로부터 교통죤간 기.종점통행량 추정기법 연구 (An Approach for Estimating Traffic-Zonal Origin-Destination Matrices(O-D) from Toll Collection System's Ones)

  • 신언교;황부연;신승원
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 1999
  • 우리나라 고속도로 총 연장 1,899km 가운데 74개 영업소 구간 1.046km가 폐쇄시 요금체계방식에 의해 매일 영업소간 O-D가 산출되고 있다. 그러나 이러한 O-D는 통행의 기·종점인 교통죤간의 O-D가 아니고 영업소간 O-D인 관계로 그 자료의 정확성에도 불구하고 고속도고 교통분석이나 교통수요예측 등에 거의 활용되지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 이런 상황에서 정확한 영업소간 O-D를 이용하여 교통죤간 O-D를 추정할 수 있다면 고속도로 교통운영분석을 효율적으로 수행할 수 있을뿐만 아니라 기존의 4단계 교통수요예측에 의해 추정되는 것보다 정확한 고속도로 O-D를 얻을 수 있고 국도 등을 포함한 전국 지역간 O-D추정도 가능한 것으로 사료된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 영업소간 O-D를 이용하여 교통죤간 O-D를 추정하는 모형을 구축하고자 수행되었다. 본 모형에 의해 산정된 교통죤간 O-D 배정결과 고속도로 폐쇄식구간 전구간에 걸쳐 실제 교통량과 17.9%의 오차가 발생되는 것으로 분석되어 본 모형을 이용할 경우 기존 방법들보다 더 정확한 고속도로 이용차량에 대한 교통죤간 O-D 산정이 가능하리라 생각된다.

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SWAT-CUP을 이용한 유출 및 유사모의 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis on the Simulations of Runoff and Sediment Using SWAT-CUP)

  • 김민호;허태영;정세웅
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2013
  • Watershed models have been increasingly used to support an integrated management of land and water, non-point source pollutants, and implement total daily maximum load policy. However, these models demand a great amount of input data, process parameters, a proper calibration, and sometimes result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is necessary to minimize the risk in the use of the models for an important decision making. The objectives of this study were to evaluate three different uncertainty analysis algorithms (SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-Ver.2, GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, ParaSol: Parameter Solution) that used to analyze the sensitivity of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) parameters and auto-calibration in a watershed, evaluate the uncertainties on the simulations of runoff and sediment load, and suggest alternatives to reduce the uncertainty. The results confirmed that the parameters which are most sensitive to runoff and sediment simulations were consistent in three algorithms although the order of importance is slightly different. In addition, there was no significant difference in the performance of auto-calibration results for runoff simulations. On the other hand, sediment calibration results showed less modeling efficiency compared to runoff simulations, which is probably due to the lack of measurement data. It is obvious that the parameter uncertainty in the sediment simulation is much grater than that in the runoff simulation. To decrease the uncertainty of SWAT simulations, it is recommended to estimate feasible ranges of model parameters, and obtain sufficient and reliable measurement data for the study site.

조건부가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 도라지 제조기술의 경제적 가치 추정 연구 -도라지 건강기능식품 가상시장을 중심으로- (Study on Economic Valuation of Manufacturing Technology of Platycodon grandiflorum Using Contingent Valuation Method - Focusing on the Virtual Market of Platycodon grandiflorum's Health Functions Food -)

  • 이현지;장인수;조하은;김홍석
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2020
  • Rural Development Administration (RDA) has developed a manufacturing technology which can increase the amount of platycodin D in Platycodon grandiflorum. A study is needed to estimate the value of this new technology and predict the market demand for a new product. This study estimates additional amount of willingness to pay (WTP) using contingent valuation method (CVM) for a new product with the technology that RDA has developed. The survey was created under virtual health functional foods market of Platycodon grandiflorums. It was conducted with 1,000 adult males and females aged between 19 and 59 years old in 17 major cities and provinces nationwide from December 4 to December 7, 2018. The amount of WTP for the health functional Platycodon grandiflorum was drawn using maxinum likelihood estimation method. The estimated average and median WTP values are 21,933.85 won per person and 10,000 won per person, respectively. The independent factors, including the ratio of monthly average health function food consumption to income, the average monthly income level of a household, and existence of family members or relatives engaged in food and nutrition-related professions in a household, have been shown to have a statistically significant influence on the WTP. This study presents the potential magnitude of health functional food market and the value of the new technology based on health functional food market.

속도-밀도 모형을 적용한 흔잡통행료 산정 (강변북로를 중심으로) (An Estimation of Congestion Pricing Using Speed-Flow Relationship (Gangbyeon Expressway))

  • 강경우;국우각
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문은 전통적인 경제학적 개념의 수요함수와 비용과의 관계로서 혼잡비용을 추정할 때 어려움을 극복하고 실제 적용 가능한 혼잡비용을 추정하는 것이다. 본 논문에서는 속도-밀도 곡선을 이용한 공학적인 방법론을 이용하여 속도에 대한 탄력성을 통해 도로의 소통상황에 따른 실질적으로 적용 가능한 혼잡통행료를 산출하기 위해서 실질 교통량자료를 이용하여 속도, 밀도 및 교통량 관계에 따른 이론적인 혼잡요금을 추정하였다. 또한, 본 논문은 장래 전자통행료징수시스템의 도입을 전제로 속도에 따른 적정혼잡통행료를 산정 하였다 특히 연구대상 지역(강변북로)의 자료를 이용하여 다양한 분석결과 Drake모형이 가장 적합한 것으로 분석되었으며, 산정된 모형을 이용하여 통행속도의 변화에 따른 적정 혼잡통행료를 추정하였다. 본 논문의 분석결과를 임금율법에 적용하여 혼잡통행료를 부과할 경우 44km/h-68krn/h일 때 최적의 혼잡 통행료는 94원에서 3,255원으로 추정되었다. 한계대체율법을 적용한 경우에는 속도가 44km/h-68km/h일 때 최적의 혼잡 통행료는 107원에서 6,381원으로 추정되었다.

ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVE NUGGET SIZE BY INFRARED THERMOGRAPHY IN SPOT WELDMENT

  • Song, J.H.;Noh, H.G.;Akira, S.M.;Yu, H.S.;Kang, H.Y.;Yang, S.M.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.55-59
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    • 2004
  • Spot welding is a very important and useful technology in fabrication of thin sheet structures such as the parts in an automobile. However, because the fatigue strength of the spot welding point is considerably lower than that of the base metal due to stress concentration at the nugget edge, the nugget size must be estimated to evaluate a reasonable fatigue strength at a spot welded lap joint. So far, many investigators have experimentally studied the estimation of fatigue strengths of various spot weldments by using a destructive method. However, these destructive methods poses problems so testing of weldments by these methods are difficult. Furthermore, these methods cannot be applied to a real product, and are time and cost consuming, as well. Therefore, there has been a strong, continual demand for the development of a nondestructive method for estimating nugget size. In this study, the effective nugget size in spot weldments have been analyzed by using thermoelastic stress analysis adopting infrared thermography. Using the results of the temperature distribution obtained by analysis of the infared stress due to adiabatic heat expansion under sinusoidal wave stresses, the effective nugget size in spot welded specimens were estimated. To examine the evaluated effective nugget size in spot weldments, it was compared with the results of microstructure observation from a 5% Nital etching test.

환경요인에 따른 지역공공재 생산비용의 격차 추정 (The Estimation of Production Cost of Local Public Goods with Environmental Difference)

  • 최영호;박상우
    • 지역연구
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 1996
  • This thesis focused on the extent of the area-by-area gap of the unit production cost that should be taken into account without exception in supply of the local public goods production cost. With the advent of the local autonomy era, what should be considered in the local governmen's production of the local public goods are the government's fiscal capacity and the environmental difference that shows up in accordance with the area's characteristics. Though with the same level of the fiscal capacity, an occurrence of environmental difference will lead inevitably to the different level of actual supply of the local public goods. The method of analysis used in this thesis was first to bring out implicit price, to combine this with induced expenditure function, to separate demand function parameter and cost function parameter, and then to analyzed the impact of environmental variables on the production cost. The environmental variables were set on the basis of the ones that affected expenditure per person of the public goods. The analysis was conducted in distinction of city areas and county areas. The results showed that, in cases of cities, more production cost of the public goods was in presence in urban areas and in areas where there was sluggish development. In other words, distinction could be drawn between areas where there was a large consumption of production cost resulting from poor environmental sparked by slow development and those where additional costs were required due to population concentration caused by a certain level of accomplished development. In the meantime, in cases of county areas, the results were around the same. However, a comparison between city areas and county ones told that overall difference between city areas was not that big in the production cost while that in county areas was large enough. In times ahead, in implementation of grant-in-aid scheme, production cost index for local public goods could be used as it was written in consideration of environmental characteristics of areas concerned.

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