• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand estimation

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A Statistical Study Evaporation tn DAEGU Area (대구지방의 증발량에 대한 통계학적 연구)

  • 김영기
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.3160-3169
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    • 1973
  • Rainfall, evaporation, and permeability of water are the most important factors in determining the demand of water. The Daegu area has only a meteorologi observatory and there is not sufficient data for adapting the advanced method for derivation of the estimated of evaporation in the Daegu area. However, by using available data, the writer devoted his great effort in deriving the most reasonable formula applicable to the Daegu area and it is adaptable for various purposes such as industry and estimation of groundwater etc. The data used in this study was the monthly amount of evaporation of the Daegu area for the past 13 years(1960 to 1970). A year can be divided into two groups by relative degrees of evaporation in this area: the first group (less evaporation) is January, February, March, October, November, and December, and the second (more evaporation) is April, May, June, July, August, and September. The amount of evaporation of the two groups were statistically treated by the theory of probability for derivation of estimated formula of evaporation. The formula derved is believed to fully consider. The characteristic hydrological environment of this area as the following shows: log(x+3)=0.8963+0.1125$\xi$..........(4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) log(x-0.7)=0.2051+0.3023$\xi$..........(1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 month) This study obtained the above formula of probability of the monthly evaporation of this area by using the relation: $F_(x)=\frac{1}{{\surd}{\pi}}\int\limits_{-\infty}^{\xi}e^{-\xi2}d{\xi}\;{\xi}=alog_{\alpha}({\frac{x_0+b'}{x_0+b})\;(-b<x<{\infty})$ $$log(x_0+b)=0.80961$ $$\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}\;Sx=0.1125$$ $$b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{m}b_s=3.14$$ $$S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{N}\{log(x_i+b)\}^2-\{log(x_i+b)\}^2}=0.0791$$ (4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) This formula may be advantageously applied to estimation of evaporation in the Daegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by following: $W_(x)$: probability of occurance. $$W_(x)=\int_x^{\infty}f(x)dx$$ P : probability $$P=\frac{N!}{t!(N-t)}{F_i^{N-{\pi}}(1-F_i)^l$$ $$F_{\eta}:\; Thomas\;plot\;F_{\eta}=(1-\frac{n}{N+1})$$ $X_l\;X_i$: maximun, minimum value of total number of sample size(other notation for general terms was used as needed)

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Early Estimation of Rice Cultivation in Gimje-si Using Sentinel-1 and UAV Imagery (Sentinel-1 및 UAV 영상을 활용한 김제시 벼 재배 조기 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-do;Kim, Sook-gyeong;Ahn, Ho-yong;So, Kyu-ho;Na, Sang-il
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.503-514
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    • 2021
  • Rice production with adequate level of area is important for decision making of rice supply and demand policy. It is essential to grasp rice cultivation areas in advance for estimating rice production of the year. This study was carried out to classify paddy rice cultivation in Gimje-si using sentinel-1 SAR (synthetic aperture radar) and UAV imagery in early July. Time-series Sentinel-1A and 1B images acquired from early May to early July were processed to convert into sigma naught (dB) images using SNAP (SeNtinel application platform, Version 8.0) toolbox provided by European Space Agency. Farm map and parcel map, which are spatial data of vector polygon, were used to stratify paddy field population for classifying rice paddy cultivation. To distinguish paddy rice from other crops grown in the paddy fields, we used the decision tree method using threshold levels and random forest model. Random forest model, trained by mainly rice cultivation area and rice and soybean cultivation area in UAV image area, showed the best performance as overall accuracy 89.9%, Kappa coefficient 0.774. Through this, we were able to confirm the possibility of early estimation of rice cultivation area in Gimje-si using UAV image.

Non-face-to-face online home training application study using deep learning-based image processing technique and standard exercise program (딥러닝 기반 영상처리 기법 및 표준 운동 프로그램을 활용한 비대면 온라인 홈트레이닝 어플리케이션 연구)

  • Shin, Youn-ji;Lee, Hyun-ju;Kim, Jun-hee;Kwon, Da-young;Lee, Seon-ae;Choo, Yun-jin;Park, Ji-hye;Jung, Ja-hyun;Lee, Hyoung-suk;Kim, Joon-ho
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.577-582
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    • 2021
  • Recently, with the development of AR, VR, and smart device technologies, the demand for services based on non-face-to-face environments is also increasing in the fitness industry. The non-face-to-face online home training service has the advantage of not being limited by time and place compared to the existing offline service. However, there are disadvantages including the absence of exercise equipment, difficulty in measuring the amount of exercise and chekcing whether the user maintains an accurate exercise posture or not. In this study, we develop a standard exercise program that can compensate for these shortcomings and propose a new non-face-to-face home training application by using a deep learning-based body posture estimation image processing algorithm. This application allows the user to directly watch and follow the trainer of the standard exercise program video, correct the user's own posture, and perform an accurate exercise. Furthermore, if the results of this study are customized according to their purpose, it will be possible to apply them to performances, films, club activities, and conferences

Estimation of Structural Strength for Spudcan in the Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (해상풍력발전기 설치선박의 스퍼드캔 구조강도 예측법)

  • Park, Joo-Shin;Lee, Dong-Hun;Seo, Jung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2022
  • As interest increases related to the development of eco-friendly energy, the offshore wind turbine market is growing at an increasing rate every year. In line with this, the demand for an installation vessel with large scaled capacity is also increasing rapidly. The wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) is a fixed penetration of the spudcan in the sea-bed to install the wind turbine. At this time, a review of the spudcan is an important issue regarding structural safety in the entire structure system. In the study, we analyzed the current procedure suggested by classification of societies and new procedures reflect the new loading scenarios based on reasonable operating conditions; which is also verified through FE-analysis. The current procedure shows that the maximum stress is less than the allowable criteria because it does not consider the effect of the sea-bed slope, the leg bending moment, and the spudcan shape. However, results of some load conditions as defined by the new procedure confirm that it is necessary to reinforce the structure to required levels under actual pre-load conditions. Therefore, the new procedure considers additional actual operating conditions and the possible problems were verified through detailed FE-analysis.

Assessment of Adequacy of Urban Water Supply (도시 상수도 공급량 산정의 적정성 평가)

  • Kim, Jang Jin;Chang, Hyung Joon;Lee, Ho Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the adequacy of water supply critical factors of urban design was examined. The supply of water supply is analyzed in various ways as the design progresses. Starting with basic data collection and analysis a supply and demand plan is established to calculate the amount of water supply and in this study the adequacy of population estimation and original unit calculation was evaluated. Among the second new cities where actual data can be secured Wirye New Town was selected as the study target area. Related data were analyzed to confirm the future population and the original unit and compared with the measured data. As of September 2020, the population of Wirye New Town was 93,977, showing the appropriateness of about 84% with a planned population of 110,990 confirming that the planned population and the actual population were almost similar. In the case of the original unit, it was calculated as 314 liters per person in Seoul and 320 liters per person in Seongnam at the time of design. As a result, it was found that there was some agreement in the population estimation while examining the supply in the planned city. In the case of Korea, there is a lot of interest in revitalizing the existing city, away from continuous development. Therefore it is judged that there is a need for further research on the adequacy of supply for the old city center.

Risk Assessment of Stationary Hydrogen Refueling Station by Section in Dispenser Module (고정식 수소충전소에서의 Dispenser Module 내 구역별 위험성 평가)

  • SangJin Lim;MinGi Kim;Su Kim;YoonHo Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2023
  • Demand for hydrogen as a renewable energy resource is increasing. However, unlike conventional fossil fuels, hydrogen requires a dedicated refueling station for fuel supply. A risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations must be undertaken to secure the infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, a risk assessment for hydrogen refueling stations was conducted through both qualitative and quantitative risk assessments. For the qualitative evaluation, the hydrogen dispenser module was evaluated as two nodes using the hazard and operability (HAZOP) analysis. The risk due to filter clogging and high-pressure accidents was evaluated to be high according to the criticality estimation matrix. For the quantitative risk assessment, the Hydrogen Korea Risk Assessment Module (Hy-KoRAM) was used to indicate the shape of the fire and the range of damage impact, and to evaluate the individual and social risks. The individual risk level was determined of to be as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). Additional safety measures proposed include placing the hydrogen refueling station about 100m away from public facilities. The social risk level was derived as 1E-04/year, with a frequency of approximately 10 deaths, falling within the ALARP range. As a result of the qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, additional safety measures for the process and a safety improvement plan are proposed through the establishment of a restricted area near the hydrogen refueling station.

Analysis of Shipping Markets Using VAR and VECM Models (VAR과 VECM 모형을 이용한 해운시장 분석)

  • Byoung-Wook Ko
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR2 reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

Estimation of evaporation from water surface in Yongdam Dam using the empirical evaporation equaion (경험적 증발량 공식을 적용한 용담댐 시험유역의 수면증발량 추정)

  • Park, Minwoo;Lee, Joo-Heon;Lim, Yong-kyu;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2024
  • This study introduced a method of estimating water surface evaporation using the physical-based Penman combination equation (PCE) and the Penman wind function (PWF). A set of regression parameters in the PCE and PWF models were optimized by using the observed evaporation data for the period 2016-2017 in the Yongdam Dam watershed, and their effectiveness was explored. The estimated evaporation over the Deokyu Mountain flux tower demonstrated that the PWF method appears to have more improved results in terms of correlation, but both methods showed overestimation. Further, the PWF method was applied to the observed hydro-meteorological data on the surface of Yongdam Lake. The PWF method outperformed the PCE in the estimation of water surface evaporation in terms of goodness-of-fit measure and visual evaluation. Future studies will focus on a regionalization process which can be effective in estimating water surface evaporation for the ungauged area by linking hydrometeorological characteristics and regression parameters.

Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Method for Generic Structures (일반 구조물에 대한 신속한 지진 취약성 분석 방법)

  • Jeong, Seong-Hoon;Choi, Sung-Mo;Kim, Kang-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2008
  • Analytical probabilistic vulnerability analysis requires extensive computing effort as a result of the randomness in both input motion and response characteristics. In this study, a new methodology whereby a set of vulnerability curves are derived based on the fundamental response quantities of stiffness, strength and ductility is presented. A response database of coefficients describing lognormal vulnerability relationships is constructed by employing aclosed-form solution for a generalized single-degree-of-freedom system. Once the three fundamental quantities of a wide range of structural systems are defined, the vulnerability curves for various limit states can be derived without recourse to further simulation. Examples of application are given and demonstrate the extreme efficiency of the proposed approach in deriving vulnerability relationships.

The Effect of Feedback Path Congestion on the Multimedia Congestion Control Algorithm (멀티미디어 혼잡제어 알고리즘에서의 회신경로 혼잡에 대한 영향 분석)

  • Jung Gi Sung;Hong Min-cheol;Yoo Myungsik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.30 no.7B
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    • pp.481-488
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    • 2005
  • As the demand on the multimedia application increases, the congestion control algorithm for the multimedia applications becomes an important research issue. The ultimate goal of congestion control is to adapt the trans-mission rate at the sender to the mont of network resource available on the forward path. In general, the congestion control algorithms use the round trip time(RTT) to estimate the network congestion on the forward path. however, since the RTT includes the delay on both forward and backward paths, it is possible for the algorithms using the RTT to make a wrong decision such as deciding the congestion on the forward path due to the congestion built on the backward path. In this paper, we enhance the performance of RRC-OTT(Receiver-based rate control with one-way Trip Time) algorithm, which uses the one-way trip time(OTT) to estimate the network congestion. By separating the estimation mechanism on the forward path from the backward path, the performance of RRC-OTT algorithm is hardly affected by the congestion built on the backward path.