• 제목/요약/키워드: demand characteristics

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선진국(先進國)에 있어서의 임목육종연구(林木育種硏究)의 동향(動向) (The Trend and Achievements of Forest Genetics Research in Abroad)

  • 현신규
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 1972
  • 해외(海外) 선진국(先進國)에서의 임목육종(林木育種)의 실정(實情)과 기(其) 동향(動向)을 견개(見開)하고 금후(今後) 우리나라 임목육종(林木育種)의 취진(就進)에 있어서 반드시 고려(考慮) 또는 실시(實施)되어야할 사항(事項)들에 의하여 고찰(考察)한 결과(結果) 다음과 같은 결론(結論)을 얻었다. 1. 유전자(遺傳子) 보존(保存)을 위한 천연림(天然林)의 보존(保存) 선진제국(先進諸國)에서 천연림(天然林)의 이용개발(利用開發)이 성행(盛行)됨과 아울러 유전자(遺傳子)의 보존(保存)을 목적(目的)으로 하는 일부(一部) 천연림(天然林)의 지역별(地域別) 보존책(保存策)을 채택(採擇)하고 있는 실정(實情)에 비추어서 우리나라와 같이 천연림(天然林)이 거의 탕진(蕩盡)되고 있는 실정하(實情下)에서는 강송(剛松), 잣나무, 섬잣나무, 사시나무, 피나무 등(等) 자생수종(自生樹種)의 천연림(天然林)의 일부(一部)를 유전자보존림(遺傳子保存林)으로 확보(確保)하는 조처(措處)가 긴급(緊急)히 이루어져야할 일이다. 또한 우리나라 고유수종(固有樹種)에 대(對)한 천연림(天然林)의 구성(構成)과 기(其) 발달과정(發達過程)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究)도 근래(近來) 새 수단(手段)으로 등장(登場)한 isozyme의 연구(硏究)에 의(依)하여 수행(遂行)되어야 할 문제(問題)이다. 2. 수형목(秀型木) 수(數)의 증가(增加) 현하(現下) 우리나라의 수형목(秀型木) 수(數)는 기(其) 선발강도(選拔强度)가 지나치게 강(强)하였던 탓으로 그 수(數)가 소(小)하여 이에 의(依)한 채종원(採種園)은 일차조림용(一次造林用)으로는 가(可)하나 이대채종원(二代採種園)을 위(爲)한 모수(母樹)의 선택대상(選擇對象)으로는 중복선발(重複選拔)이 될 우려(憂慮)가 큰 고(故)로 선발강도(選拔强度)를 연화(軟化)하여서 기(其) 본수(本數)를 대폭(大幅) 증가(增加)시킬 필요(必要)가 있다. 3. 차대검정(次代檢定) 특수조합능력(特殊組合能力)을 강조(强調)해야 할 특별(特別)한 경우를 제외(除外)하고는 수형목(秀型木)의 풍매종자(風媒種子)에 의(依)한 차대검정(次代檢定)을 위주(爲主)로 함이 적당(適當)하다고 사료(思料)되나, 차대검정(次代檢定)의 연한(年限) 단축(短縮)을 위(爲)하여서 임목(林木)의 중요형질(重要形質)에 대(對)한 조기검정(早期檢定)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)가 중요(重要)한 과제(課題)로서 다루어져야만 할것이다. 이와 관련(關聯)하여 zymography의 활용성(活用性) 연구(硏究)도 중요(重要)한 일이다. 4. 유전자형(遺傳子型)과 환경(環境)과의 교호작용(交互作用)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) 종래(從來) 사실상(事實上) 입지조건(立地條件)이 양호(良好)한 임분(林分)에서 선발(選拔)된 수형목(秀型木)이 요박(療薄)한 임지(林地)에서도 그 우수성(優秀性)을 나타내는지의 여부(如否)를 구명(究明)하므로서 특수입지(特殊立地)를 위(爲)한 별도채종원조성(別途採種園造成)의 필요성(必要性) 유무(有無)를 하루속(速)히 구명(究明)해야하며 우리나라의 육종구(育種區)에 대(對)한 재확인(再確認)과 그 적용(適用)이 요청(要請)되는 일이다. 5. 윤엽수(潤葉樹)의 채종원(採種園) 천연림(天然林)의 구성분자(構成分子)로서 생장력(生長力)의 비교(比較)가 곤란(困難)한 윤엽수(潤葉樹)에 대(對)하여서는 외국(外國)에서 실시(實施)하는 바를 참고(參考)하여 선발목간(選拔木間)의 교잡차대(交雜次代)로서 차대검정림(次代檢定林)을 설치(設置)한후 이를 도태(陶汰) seedling seed orchard로 유도(誘導)하는 방법(方法)을 취(取)함이 가(可)하다고 사료(思料)된다. 6. 내병충성(耐病蟲性) 육종(育種) 소나무좀벌레, 솔잎흑파리 등(等) 충해(蟲害)와 낙엽송(落葉松)의 낙엽병(落葉病)과 포푸라 현병(鉉病) 등(等)은 유전자(遺傳子)에 의(依)하여 지배(支配)되는 것이 구명(究明)되고 있어 이에 대(對)한 내병충성(耐病蟲性) 육종(育種)을 계획실시(計劃實施)함을 요(要)한다. 7. 재질(材質) 특(特)히 목재비중(木材比重)에 대(對)한 육종(育種) 특(特)히 pulp 용재(用材)를 목적(目的)으로 하는 수종(樹種)에 대(對)하여서는 선진각국(先進各國)에 비추어서 목재비중(木材比重)에 대(對)한 육종(育種)의 실시(實施)가 요청(要請)된다. 8. 삼나무(Cryptomeria japonica) 및 편백(Chamaecyparis obtusa)의 도입(導入) 삼나무와 편백은 현재(現在) 남부(南部) 난대지대(暖帶地帶)에 국한(局限)하여 조림(造林)하고 있으나 일본(日本)에 있어서의 양수종(兩樹種)의 조림한계(造林限界)가 예상이상(豫想以上)으로 한냉(寒冷)한 지대(地帶)까지 실시(實施)되고 있는 실정(實定)에 비추어서 상기(上記) 양수종(兩樹種)에 대(對)한 도입시험(導入試驗)을 종래(從來)보는 한냉(寒冷)한 지대(地帶)까지 확대실시(擴大實施)할 필요(必要)가 있다고 인정(認定)되었다.

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가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고- (An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea)

  • 방숙;한성현;이정자;안문영;이인숙;김은실;김종호
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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주요(主要) 전작물(田作物)에 대(對)한 가리성분(加里成分)의 비교(肥效) (Response of Potassium on Main Upland Crops)

  • 류인수
    • 한국토양비료학회지
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.171-188
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    • 1977
  • 전작물(田作物)에 대(對)한 가리비료(加里肥料)의 효과(效果)를 검토(檢討)하고 그 결과(結果)를 다음과 같이 요약(要約)하였다. 1. 작물(作物)의 종류별(種類別) 가리(加里)의 10a당(當) 평균(平均) 시비적량(施肥適量)은 각각(各各) 목초(牧草) 32, 채소(菜蔬) 22.5, 과수(果樹) 17.3, 서류(薯類) 13.3, 화곡류(禾穀類) 6.5kg이다. 최근(最近) 경제성장(經濟成長)과 더부러 목초(牧草), 채소(菜蔬) 및 과수(果樹)의 재배면적(栽培面積)이 급격(急激)히 증가(增加)하고 있어 영후(令後)의 가리비료(加里肥料) 수요(需要)는 크게 증대(增大)될 것이다. 2. 주요(主要) 전작물(田作物)에 대(對)한 평균(平均) 적정가리(適正加里) 시비량(施肥量)은 보리 6.5, 밀 6.9, 콩 4.5, 옥수수 8.1, 감자 8.9, 고구마 17.7kg/10a이다. 가리성분(加里成分) 1kg/10a당(當) 평균(平均) 증수량(增收量)은 화곡류(禾穀類)에서 4~5kg이고 서류(薯類) 46kg로서 수익성(收益生)은 서류(薯類)에서 높다. 3. 전국(全國)의 치환성(置換性) 가리(加理) 함량(含量)의 분포(分布)는 해안지대(海岸地帶) 특(特)히 남해안(南海岸)에서 높고 내륙지대(內陸地帶)에서 낮으며 산악지대(山岳地帶)는 그 중간(中間)이다. 도별(道別)로는 제주(濟州)>전남(全南)>강원(江原)>경남(慶南)의 순(順)이고 경북도(慶北道)에서 가장 낮다. 대 맥(大 麥) : 4. 월동맥류(越冬麥類에) 대(對)한 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效) 및 적량(適量)은 l차적(次的)으로 기온(氣溫)의 영향(影響)을 받으며 토양인자(土壞因子)는 제(第)2차적(次的)인 것으로 생각할 수 있다. 따라서 토양별(土壞別) 또는 토양검정(土壞檢定)에 따른 시비량(施肥量) 결정기준(決定基準)은 기존지대별(氣候地帶別)로 설정(設定)함이 합리적(合理的)일 것이다. 5. 고온(高溫)에서는 토양(土壞) 중(中)의 가리(加里)의 방출(放出)이 촉진(促進)되어 가리(加里)에서 시용효과(施用效果)와 시비적량(施肥適量)이 남부(南部)에서 적고 저온인 북부(北部)에서 높으나 시비(施肥) 인산(燐酸)은 고온에서 고정(固定)이 촉진(促進)되어 남부(南部)에서 시비적량(施肥適量)이 많으며 질소(窒素)는 온도요인(溫度要因)보다는 강수량(降水量)의 영향이 커서 강수량(降水量)이 많은 남부(南部)에서 시비적량(施肥適量)이 극히 높은 것으로 풀이되었다. 6. 도별(道別) 평균(平均) 가리비효(加里肥效)는 남부(南部)로 갈수록 떨어지는 경향(傾向)을 보였고 경북(慶北)만이 예외적(例外的)으로 높다. 경북(慶北)은 치환성(置換性) 가리함량(加里含量)이 가장 낮을 뿐 아니라 산간지역(山間地域)의 저온권 전작지대(田作地帶)가 많은 것이 원인(原因)인 것 같다. 7. 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效)와 시비적량(施肥適量)은 연차별(年次別) 변이(變異)가 크다. 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效)는 저온의 해에 컸고(평년(平年)의 2~3배(倍)) 조해(早害)와 습해(濕害)가 있었던 해에는 적었으며 시비적량(施肥適量)은 저온으로 동해(凍害)가 있었던 해보다는 조해(早害)와 습해(濕害)가 있었던 해에서 더욱 많다. 8. 모암별(母岩別) 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里) 함량(含量)은 결정편암(結晶片岩)>화강암(花崗岩)>수성암(水成岩)>현무암(玄武岩)의 순(順)이나 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效)는 이와 반대(反對)의 순(順)이어서 모암별(母岩別) 가리(加里) 함량(含量)과 비효간(肥效間)에는 뚜렷한 역상관(逆相關)이 있다. 9. 모재별(母材別) 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里) 함량(含量)은 충적토(沖積土)>잔적토(殘積土)>홍적토(洪積土)>곡간충적토이며 가리비효(加里肥效)는 곡간충적토에서 만이 현저히 클 뿐 그 외(外)의 모재간(母材間)에 는 분명(分明)한 차이(差異)가 없다. 10. 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效)와 적량(積量)은 토성(土性) 차이(差異)에 의(依)하여 크게 달라서 가리비효(加里肥效)는 사질(砂質)쪽에서 높고 가리적량(加里適量)은 식질(埴質) 쪽에서 높다. 특(特)히 사질(砂質)인 양토(壤土)와 사양토(砂壤土)에서는 적량(適量)을 초과(超過) 시비(施肥)했을 때 감수(減收)가 크다. 11. 가리시용(加里施用)에 의(依)해서 평균적(平均的)으로 출수일(出穗日)이 1.7일(日) 지연되고 간장(稈長)은 4.4cm가 증대(增大)되며 주당수수(株當穗數)(0.3)와 1,000립중(粒重) 및 저엽비율(租葉比率)이 증대(增大)된다. 콩 : 12. 콩의 가리비효(加里肥效)는 곡류작물(穀物作物) 중(中)에서 가장 적으나 신개간지(新開墾地)에서는 가리(加里) 8kg/10a 시용(施用)으로 자실중(子實重)이 28kg/10a까지 증수(增收)된다. 13. 모암별(母岩別) 가리비효(加里肥效)는 현무암(玄武岩)제주(濟州)>수성암(水成岩)>화강암(花崗岩) 및 석회암(石灰巖)의 순(順)이며 연차별(年次別) 변이폭(慶異幅)도 크다. 옥수수 : 14. 치환성(置換性) 가리함량(加里含量)이 많은 토양(土壞)에서는 옥수수의 가리비효(加里肥效)는 떨어지나 절대수량(絶對收量)이 높기 때문에 오히려 가리(加里)의 시비적량(施肥適量)은 가리함량(加里含量)이 높은 경우에 높다. 15. 옥수수에 대(對)한 가리비효(加里肥效)는 인산(燐酸)의 시비수준(施肥水準)과 교호작용(交互作用)이 인정(認定)되어 인산(燐酸)의 적량(適量) 시용하(施用下)에서 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效)도 크고 적량(適量)도 높다. 서 류(薯類) : 16. 감자는 가리(加里)보다도 질소(窒素)의 요구량(要求量)이 더 많으며 이 때문에 감자가 스스로 토양가리(土壤加里)의 흡수능력(吸收能力)이 큰 것 같다. 17. 감자의 수량(收量)은 식양토(埴壤土) 보다는 사양토(砂壤土)에서 높고 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里) 함량(含量)이 높을수록 높다. 그러나 가리(加里)의 비효(肥效)는 사질토(砂質土)보다는 식양토(埴壤土)에서 높고 전토양(田土壤)보다는 답토양(畓土壤)과 같은 불량환경(不良環境) 조건(條件)에서 더욱 크다. 18. 고구마에서는 질소(窒素)와 인산(燐酸)의 요구량(要求量)은 비교적 낮고 흡비력(吸肥力)이 강(强)하여 불량토양(不良土壤)에서도 상당히 높은 수량(收量)을 얻을수 있으나 가리(加里)의 시비적량(施肥適量)과 시비효과(施肥效果)가 매우 크다는 것이 특징(特徵)이다. 19. 고구마에 대(對)한 가리(加里)의 시비효과(施肥效果)는 토성별(土性別)로 차이(差異)가 크며 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里) 함량(含量)이 낮은 사질토(砂質土)에서도 충분량(充分量)의 가리(加里)를 시용(施用)했을 때는 비효(肥效)가 크게 나타나 수량(收量)이 토양(壤土) 및 식양토(埴壤土)에 비하여 높아진다. 20. 신개간지(新開墾地)와 같이 척박한 토양(壤土)에서도 충분량(充分量)의 가리(加里)를 시용(施用)했을 때는 숙전(熟田)과 대등(對等)한 수량(收量)을 올릴 수 있다.

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한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발 (DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA)

  • 박만배
    • 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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