• Title/Summary/Keyword: default risk

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Corporate Social Responsibility and Unsecured Debt: Evidence from China

  • CHEN, Xia;MA, Zhe;SHI, Jiayu;TU, Bingyan;XU, Songtao
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to investigate whether Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance can help companies gain more bank unsecured loans. Additionally, this study analyzes the moderating effect of firm size and industry characteristics. Data was collected through the case of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China between 2009 and 2018 with 5373 firm-year observations. The results of multivariable regression analysis show that good CSR performance exhibits a strong positive impact on unsecured debt, including short-term, long-term, and total unsecured debt, which indicates that corporate with good CSR performance can borrow more unsecured debt. further research shows that this effect is more pronounced for small enterprises and firms operating in heavy-polluting industries. Additionally, research on the impact mechanism finds that good CSR performance can help mitigate information asymmetry between borrower and lender, reduce moral hazard of borrower, and obtain support from key stakeholders, and therefore reduces the risk of default. The findings of this study suggest that firms with good CSR performance exhibit a preference for unsecured debt, but decline to provide collateral for debt. Overall, we emphasize and illustrate the important role of corporate CSR in bank credit financing.

Importance sampling with splitting for portfolio credit risk

  • Kim, Jinyoung;Kim, Sunggon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.327-347
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    • 2020
  • We consider a credit portfolio with highly skewed exposures. In the portfolio, small number of obligors have very high exposures compared to the others. For the Bernoulli mixture model with highly skewed exposures, we propose a new importance sampling scheme to estimate the tail loss probability over a threshold and the corresponding expected shortfall. We stratify the sample space of the default events into two subsets. One consists of the events that the obligors with heavy exposures default simultaneously. We expect that typical tail loss events belong to the set. In our proposed scheme, the tail loss probability and the expected shortfall corresponding to this type of events are estimated by a conditional Monte Carlo, which results in variance reduction. We analyze the properties of the proposed scheme mathematically. In numerical study, the performance of the proposed scheme is compared with an existing importance sampling method.

An Ensemble Model for Credit Default Discrimination: Incorporating BERT-based NLP and Transformer

  • Sophot Ky;Ju-Hong Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.624-626
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    • 2023
  • Credit scoring is a technique used by financial institutions to assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers. This involves evaluating a borrower's credit history to predict the likelihood of defaulting on a loan. This paper presents an ensemble of two Transformer based models within a framework for discriminating the default risk of loan applications in the field of credit scoring. The first model is FinBERT, a pretrained NLP model to analyze sentiment of financial text. The second model is FT-Transformer, a simple adaptation of the Transformer architecture for the tabular domain. Both models are trained on the same underlying data set, with the only difference being the representation of the data. This multi-modal approach allows us to leverage the unique capabilities of each model and potentially uncover insights that may not be apparent when using a single model alone. We compare our model with two famous ensemble-based models, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting.

An Empirical Analysis on the Relation of Environmental and Financial Performances: Default Risk Approach (파산위험을 이용한 기업의 재무성과와 환경성과의 관계 분석)

  • Hong, Chung-Hun;Lee, Soo-Kyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2006
  • As the social responsibility of corporations becomes more important, recently, many corporations have made constant efforts to preserve natural environment. Environmental investments had been traditionally thought as cost factors and sources of negative effects on a firm's financial performances. In this study, we explore the relation of financial and environmental performances of Korean corporations. We use default probability as well as ROE as indicators of financial performances. We find that there is positive correlation between ROE and environmental performance, and negative correlation between default probability and environmental performance. This implies that Korean corporations should recognize environmental investment as means of improving corporate value.

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How Do the Banks Determine Regulatory Capital, Risk, and Cost Inefficiency in Bangladesh?

  • RAHMAN, Mohammad Morshedur;CHOWDHURY, Md. Ali Arshad;MOUDUD-UL-HUQ, Syed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.211-222
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    • 2020
  • This study examines simultaneous relationships between regulatory capital, risk, and cost-inefficiency for a sample of 30 commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2006 to 2018. To conduct the analysis, we used the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) in an unbalanced panel data framework. The empirical results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between capital regulation and credit, and overall risk. It is also evident from the results that the capital adequacy ratio is positively and significantly related to default risk and liquidity risk. Therefore, higher capitalized banks take an effort to prevent more credit risk and promote financial stability by reducing liquidity risk. Results also report that banks have been characterized as inefficient, less capitalized, and high risk. On the other hand, efficient banks are more stable but have a high level of liquidity risk. Besides, from the size of the bank, large banks are defined as having lower regulatory capital, are more risk seekers but stable with higher cost-efficiency. Notably, higher capitalized banks are more profitable and cost-efficient by reducing risk. Finally, this study also provides some insightful policy suggestions to the stakeholders.

Leverage and Bankruptcy Risk - Evidence from Maturity Structure of Debt: An Empirical Study from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Thi Thanh;KIEN, Vu Duc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2022
  • This study examines the relationship between debt maturity structure and bankruptcy risk. There are various studies of leverage's effect on bankruptcy risk. Debt maturity, however, has not received the attention it deserves, especially in emerging markets with a high degree of information asymmetry. Using Vietnamese listed company data and various estimations, we find that leverage is positively associated with the likelihood of default. Importantly, short-term leverage shows a significantly positive effect on bankruptcy risk, while long-term leverage does not show significant results. The findings highlight that rollover risk firms are exposed to when using short-term debt increases bankruptcy risk. Meanwhile, firms do not cope with this risk in case of long-term debt adoption. High information asymmetry in emerging markets may be the main reason for the difference. The result is robust for subsamples of firms in different financial conditions, in concentrated and competitive industries, as well as for manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. We also find that firms in a better financial situation and concentrated industries experience a higher short-term leverage effect than their counterparts. We, however, do not find a significant difference in the impact between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. This paper is among the first to examine the relation between debt maturity and bankruptcy risk in Vietnam.

Risks of Mortgage-Backed Securities and Their Pricing (MBS의 위험과 가치평가)

  • You, Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.29-62
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    • 2007
  • We examine the methods to increase MBS values given parameters of default risks of individual mortgages and their correlation, and analyze the effects of these parameters on the efficiency of the methods. First, the values of MBS can be improved when they are comprised of low-correlation mortgages regardless of specific forms of investors' utility functions. Second, the values of MBS can also be raised even after their components mortgages are determined. More specifically, when investors' utilities are heterogeneous, CMO's of a less risky tranche and a riskier tranche are highly valued compared with pass-through securities of two identical tranches. When investors' utilities are homogeneous(risk averse), however, the latter meets the needs of investors better than the former does. Third, it can be shown that the efficiency of the methods in this paper is an increasing function of default risks of mortgage loans or of the correlation between them, and a decreasing function of the amount of the price fall of MBS when in default.

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Assessment of the Risk of Exposure to Chemical Carcinogens

  • Purchase, Iain F.H.
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.17
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    • pp.41-45
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    • 2001
  • The methods used for risk assessment from exposure to chemicals are well established. in most cases where toxicity other than carcinogenesis is being considered, the standard method relies on establishing the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) in the most sensitive animal toxicity study and using an appropriate safety factor (SF) to determine the exposure which would be associated with an acceptable risk. For carcinogens a different approach is used because it has been argued there is no threshold of effect. Thus mathematical equations are used to extrapolate from the high doses used in ani-mal experiments. These methods have been strongly criticised in recent years on several grounds. The most cogent criticisms are a) the equations are not based on a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis and b) the outcome of a risk assessment based on such models varies more as a consequence of changes to the assumptions and equation used than it does from the data derived from carcinogenicity experiments. Other criticisms include the absence of any measure of the variance on the risk assessment and the selection of default values that are very conservative. Recent advances in the application of risk assessment emphasise that measures of both the exposure and the hazard should be considered as a distribution of values. The outcome of such a risk assessment provides an estimate of the distribution of the risks.

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Derivation of Soil Fluorine Standards Based on a Human Health Risk Assessment Method (위해성 평가 기법에 따른 토양 불소 기준안 연구)

  • Seung-Woo Jeong
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.14-22
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    • 2024
  • This study established risk-based fluoride soil contamination standards according to the Korean Soil Contaminant Risk Assessment Guidelines (SRAG). Ten exposure scenarios were evaluated, broadly categorized into Scenario 1, which used the default parameters from the current SRAG, and Scenario 2, which used the latest exposure factors and bio-concentration factors. Fluoride soil standards corresponding to a total hazard index (HI) of 1.0 were determined for each scenario. For children in agricultural areas, the derived risk-based soil fluoride standard was 70 mg/kg for Scenario 1 and 27 mg/kg for Scenario 2. In industrial areas, the risk-based fluoride soil standard was 2200 mg/kg in Scenario 1 and 2300 mg/kg in Scenario 2. This study clearly demonstrated that the crop ingestion exposure pathway exerted predominent influence on the estimated human health risk standards. Additionally, using the Added Risk Approach and considering soil background concentrations, the total fluoride soil standards for residential areas ranged from 232 mg/kg to 444 mg/kg, while the standards for industrial areas ranged from 2405 mg/kg to 2674 mg/kg.

Research on Interest Rate Determinants in Shipping Loans (선박금융의 금리결정 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Kyung-Suk;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.133-149
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    • 2024
  • According to previous studies, the key factor in determining the loan interest rate for shipping companies is the default risk premium. Therefore, this study analyzes the determinants of the risk premium of shipping loans using a multiple linear regression model. With the risk premium as the dependent variable, a total of 10 independent variables are selected, including three factors: loan characteristics, borrower's creditworthiness, and economic situation. Samples are 82 shipping loans supported by Bank A from 2014 to 2022. As a result, borrower's creditworthiness(current ratio, debt ratio, firm age) and economic situation(freight index) affect the risk premium in analysis for all samples. It is found that borrower's creditworthiness has some influence on the risk premium for container ships(current ratio, cash holding ratio, debt ratio, operating income to sales) and bulk carriers(debt ratio, firm age). Market situation affects the risk premium in gas carriers. However, in the model targeting tanker ships, unlike previous studies, all factors have no effect on the risk premium.