• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.51 no.11
• /
• pp.1031-1041
• /
• 2018

ANFIS-based methodology for improving GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast is developed and evaluated in this study. The proposed method consists of two steps: pre & post processing. For ensemble prediction of GloSea5, weights are assigned to the ensemble members based on Optimal Weighting Method (OWM) in the pre-processing. Then, the bias of the results of pre-processed is corrected based on Model Output Statistics (MOS) method in the post-processing. The watershed of the Chungju multi-purpose dam in South Korea is selected as a study area. The results of evaluation indicated that the pre-processing step (CASE1), the post-processing step (CASE2), pre & post processing step (CASE3) results were significantly improved than the original GloSea5 bias correction (BC_GS5). Correction performance is better the order of CASE3, CASE1, CASE2. Also, the accuracy of pre-processing was improved during the season with high variability of precipitation. The post-processing step reduced the error that could not be smoothed by pre-processing step. It could be concluded that this methodology improved the ability of GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast by using ANFIS, especially, for the summer season with high variability of precipitation when applied both pre- and post-processing steps.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2011.05a
• /
• pp.29-29
• /
• 2011

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형은 물리적 기반의 준분포형 강우-유출 모형으로서, 대규모의 복잡한 유역에서 장기간에 걸친 다양한 종류의 토양과 토지이용 및 토지관리 상태에 따른 유출과 유사 및 오염물질의 거동에 대한 토지관리 방법의 영향을 예측이 가능하여, 수자원 관리 계획 및 유역관리를 위한 의사결정 지원 등 그 적용 범위가 매우 광범위하다. 이러한 모형의 적용성 검증을 위해서는 매개변수 민감도 분석 및 검 보정, 예측 불확실성 분석을 필요로 한다. 최근 수문 모델의 불확실성을 분석하기 위한 다양한 기법들이 개발 되었는데, 본 연구는 충주댐 유역(6,581.1 m)을 대상으로 유역출구점의 실측 일 유출량 자료(1998~2003)를 바탕으로 SWAT 모형의 유출관련 매개변수(총 18개)에 대한 불확실성 분석을 실시하였다. 이때 사용된 분석 기법으로는 SUFI2 (Sequential Uncertainty FItting algorithm 2), GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation), ParaSol (Parameter Solution)등을 적용 하였다. 이러한 기법은 모두 SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration Uncertainty Program, Abbaspour, 2007) 모형에 탑재되어있으며, 모형의 결과로써 검 보정, 매개변수의 민감도 분석, 각종 목적 함수 및 불확실성의 범위 등이 자동으로 산출 되므로 모형의 사용자가 불확실성 평가 기법의 분석 및 비교를 손쉽게 할 수 있다. 그 결과 대표적인 목적 함수인 결정 계수( $^2$)와 NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency)는 모두 0.65에서 0.92사이의 값을 나타내어 대체적으로 모의가 잘 이루어졌음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 불확실성의 범위를 나타내는 지표인 p-factor 및 r-factor에서는 평가 기법 별로 그 차이가 확연하게 드러났다. 여기서 p-factor는 불확실성 범위에 실측치가 포함되는 비율이며, r-factor는 불확실성의 상대적인 범위로 각각 1과 0에 가까울수록 모의 기법의 성능이 우수함을 의미한다. 세 가지 알고리듬 중에서 SUFI2의 p-factor가 약 0.51로 가장 높게 나타났으며, ParaSol의 r-factor가 0.00으로 가장 작게 나타났다. 여기서 p-factor는 불확실성 범위에 실측치가 포함되는 비율이며, r-factor는 불확실성의 상대적인 범위를 의미한다. 본 연구의 결과는 SWAT 모형을 이용한 수문모델링에서 수문분석에 따른 예측결과의 불확실성을 정량적으로 평가함으로서, 모형의 적용성 평가 및 모의결과의 신뢰성 확보에 근거자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.25-39
• /
• 2013

In this study, the change of the discharge according to the land cover change which acts as one of dominant factors for the outlook of future discharge was analyzed using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for Yongdam and Daecheong Dam Watershed in the Geum River Basin. The land cover maps generated by Landsat TM satellite images in the past 1990 and 1995 were used as observed data to simulate the land cover in 2000 by CA-Markov serial technique and after they were compared and verified, the changes of land cover in 2050 and 2100 in the future were simulated. The discharge before and after the change of land cover by using input data of SWAT model was compared and analyzed under the A1B scenario. As a result of analyzing the trend in the elapses of year on the land cover in the Geum River Basin, the forest and rice paddy class area steadily decreased while the urban, bare ground and grassland classes increased. As a result of analyzing the change of discharge considering the future change of the land cover, it appeared that the discharge considering the change of land cover increases by 1.83~2.87% on the whole compared to the discharge not considering the change of land cover.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.41 no.2
• /
• pp.149-162
• /
• 2008

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developed by the USDA-Agricultural Research Service for the prediction of land management impact on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in a large-scale basin was applied to Daecheong Reservoir basin to estimate the amount of soil losses from different land uses. The research outcomes provide important indications for reservoir managers and policy makers to search alternative watershed management practices for the mitigation of reservoir turbidity flow problems. After calibrations of key model parameters, SWAT showed fairly good performance by adequately simulating observed annual runoff components and replicating the monthly flow regimes in the basin. The specific soil losses from agricultural farm field, forest, urban area, and paddy field were 33.1, $2.3{\sim}5.4$ depending on the tree types, 1.0, and 0.1 tons/ha/yr, respectively in 2004. It was noticed that about 55.3% of the total annual soil loss is caused by agricultural activities although agricultural land occupies only 10% in the basin. Although the soil erosion assessment approach adopted in this study has some extent of uncertainties due to the lack of detailed information on crop types and management activities, the results at least imply that soil erosion control practices for the vulnerable agricultural farm lands can be one of the most effective alternatives to reduce the impact of turbidity flow in the river basin system.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.38 no.5 s.154
• /
• pp.379-390
• /
• 2005

This study is to trace the change of stream shape using the past series of aortal photographs and topographic maps, and to compare the land use changes of inland along the stream. For the Gyeongan first & second class of local stream, aerial photographs of 1966, 1981 and 2000 were selected and ortho photographs were made with interior orientation and exterior orientation, respectively. In addition, topographic maps of 1914 - 1915 were used to compare with stream of 1966, 1981 and 2000. As apparent changes of the stream, the consolidated reaches of stream with levee construction were straightened and their stream width widened. Especially the stream width of inlet part of Paldang lake was widened almost twice because of the rise of water level by dam construction in 1974. The land use maps (1966, 1981, 2000) of riparian areas were also made, respectively and classified into 6 categories (water, forest, agricultural land, urban area, road, sandbar) by digitizing, The main changes of land use were agricultural land, urban area, road and sandbar.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.27-44
• /
• 2015

An analytical solution of dynamic responses for seabed in finite and infinite thicknesses including shallow has been developed under flow and partial standing wave with arbitrary reflection ration coexisting field at a constant water depth condition. In the analytical solution, a field was simply transited to a coexisting field of progressive wave and flow when reflection ratio was 0 and to a coexisting field of fully standing wave and flow when reflection ratio was 1. Based on the Biot's consolidation theory, the seabed was assumed as a porous elastic media with the assumptions that pore fluid is compressible and Darcy law governs the flow. The developed analytical solution was compared with the existing results and was verified. Using the analytical solution the deformation, pore pressure, effective and shear stresses were examined under various given values of reflection ratio, flow velocity, incident wave's period and seabed thickness. From this study, it was confirmed that the dynamic response of seabed was quite different depending on consideration of flow, which causes changing period and length of incident and reflection waves. It was also confirmed that dynamic response significantly depends on the magnitude of reflection ratio.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.48 no.10
• /
• pp.857-868
• /
• 2015

Hydraulic and water quality models with high reliability are necessary for the efficient management of water quality in the reservoir. The model capacity can be demonstrated by the application for the various hydrological conditions. CE-QUAL-W2 model is laterally averaged two-dimensional hydraulic and water quality model. The W2 model, which is suitable for the narrow reservoir like the Jinyang reservoir as compared with the depth and length of waterbody, has been frequently used by many researchers. Namgang watershed is expected to increase the water demand. In this study, the W2 model is validated under two different hydrological conditions; wet year (2011) and normal year (2009). Using hydrological and water quality condition for calibration, 2011, the effect of water intake increase was simulated. The simulation results showed that the increase of water intake led to increase the concentrations in total nitrogen, total phosphorus and Chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ concentration. Especially the concentration increase was appeared during the dry season in each of up to 62.53% (Total nitrogen), 39.07% (Total phosphorus) and 232.19% (Chlorophyll-${\alpha}$). The changes of chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ is similar to those of total phosphorus concentration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.48 no.4
• /
• pp.257-268
• /
• 2015

The objective of this study is to assess the dual-polarization radar for flood forecasting. First, radar rainfall has temporal and spatial errors, so estimated radar rainfall was compared with ground observation rainfall to assess accuracy improvement, especially, considering the radar range of observation and increase of the rainfall intensity. The results of this study showed that the error for estimated dual-polarization radar rainfall was less than single-polarization radar rainfall. And in this study, dual-polarization radar rainfall for flood forecasting was assessed using MAP (Mean Areal Precipitation) and SURR (Sejong University Rainfall Runoff) model in Namkang dam watershed. The results of MAP are more accurate using dual-polarization radar. And the results of runoff using dual-polarization radar rainfall showed that peak flow error was reduced approximately 12~63%, runoff volumes error was reduced by approximately 30~42%, and also the root mean square error decreased compared to the result of runoff using single-polarization radar rainfall. The results revealed that dual-polarization radar will contribute to improving the accuracy of the flood forecasting.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.353-365
• /
• 2010

Generally, river discharge is measured at flood forecasting points, upstream dam points, large rivers, and important points over a basin, and it is hard to estimate discharge of medium or small stream and small catchment. Physically based rainfall-runoff model with geographical parameters can simulate discharge at all the points within a basin with optimized parameters for a point in the basin. In this study, GRM (Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model) calibrated at the outlet is applied. The discharge at upstream point is estimated and the possibility of model regionalisation is examined for ungauged catchment of small or medium stream within a river system. Wicheon and Boksu watershed in Nakdonggang (Riv.) and Yudeungcheon (Riv.) respectively are selected. The discharge at Miseong and Sindae station is simulated with the parameters estimated at Museong and Boksu station. The results of Miseong and Sindae station show good agreement with observed hydrographs in peak discharge and peak time and consistently linear relationships with high correlations in discharge volume, peak discharge, and peak time. And it shows GRM could be applied to estimate discharge at ungauged catchments along a river system.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2016.05a
• /
• pp.498-498
• /
• 2016

광역상수원으로 활용되는 주암댐 저수지 및 동복댐 저수지가 위치하고 있는 유역을 대상으로 유역모형을 적용하여 비점오염 저감시설에 따른 수지개선효과를 분석하였다. 주암댐 유역은 보성강 수계에 위치하고 있으며 전체 유역면적은 약 $1,010km^2$으로 담양군, 보성군, 장흥군, 화순군 및 순천시에 걸쳐 위치하고 있다. 비점오염원 설치지점을 고려하기 위하여 소유역별 비점오염원 부하량 산정이 가능하고 BMPs 효과분석 모의가 가능한 HSPF 유역모델을 적용하여 2011~2012년을 대상으로 유량, BOD, TN, TP 재현성을 검증하였다. 29개 소유역별 비점오염원 부하량 평가를 통해 중점관리지역을 선정하였으며 비점오염원 저감시설 설치 시나리오 4개를 적용하여 수질개선 효과를 비교 분석하였다. BOD, TN, TP 모두 주암호 유역 상류에 위치하는 보성강댐 소유역에서 상대적으로 높은 비점오염원 부하량이 유출되는 것으로 분석되었으며 특히, TN에서 가장 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 비점오염 저감시설의 누적유출고와 배수면적을 고려하여 비점오염 저감시설로 저류지를 선정하였으며 누적유출고 5 mm/d와 전체유역면적을 고려한 시나리오 1, 누적유출고 5mm/d와 산림을 제외한 유역면적을 고려한 시나리오 2, 누적유출고 24.5 mm/d와 전체유역면적을 고려한 시나리오 3, 누적유출고 24.5 mm/d와 산림을 제외한 유역면적을 고려한 시나리오 4로 구분하여 적용하였다. BOD의 경우, 2011년 조건에서 시나리오 1은 각 소유역별 평균 13.1%, 시나리오 2는 3.7%, 시나리오 3은 15.8%, 시나리오 4는 4.4%의 비점오염원 부하량 저감효과가 나타났으며 2012년 조건에서는 각 시나리오별로 평균 13.1%, 3.6%, 15.7%, 4.3%의 저감효과가 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. TN의 경우, 2011년 조건에서 시나리오별로 평균 10.9%, 3.0%, 13.0%, 3.6%, 2012년 조건에서도 유사한 범위로 비점오염원 부하량 저감효과가 분석되었다. TP의 경우, 2011년 조건에서 시나리오별로 평균 13.7%, 3.8%, 16.5%, 4.6%, 2012년 조건에서는 13.7%, 3.8%, 16.4%, 4.6%로 분석되었다. 주암댐 유역의 중점 관리지역을 선정하여 누적유출고 24.5mm/d와 전체유역면적을 고려한 저류지를 설치할 경우 효과가 가장 큰 것으로 나타났으며 평균 BOD 15.8%, TN 13.3%, TP 16.5%의 저감효과로 분석되었다.