• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.879-889
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• 2014

In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.194-208
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• 2021

The Hwanggang Dam in North Korea is located upstream of the Imjin River which is a shared river in the border area. It is known to have a reservoir capacity of 350 million cubic meters and releases a discharge primarily for generating hydroelectric power and partly for transferring to the Yesung River basin. Due to the supply of water from the Hwanggang Dam to another basin, the flow of the Imjin River has decreased, which has a negative impact on the water supply, river maintenance flow, water quality, and ecological environment in Korea. However, due to the special national security issue of the South and North Korea border region, the hydrological data is not shared, and the operation method of the Hwanggang Dam is unknown, so there is a risk of damage to the southern part of the downstream area. In this study, the monthly diversion as the long-term runoff concept was derived through the calibrated hydrological model based on optical remotely sensed Images and water balance analysis. As a result of the water balance analysis from January 2019 to September 2021, the average diversion of the Hwanggang Dam was 29.2m³/s, which is equivalent to 922 million tons per year and 45.6% of the annual inflow of 2.02 million tons into the Hwanggang Dam.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.723-726
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• 2008

It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established, uncertainty analysis, therefore, are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an expected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

• The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.525-533
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• 2009

Objectives : There are lots of reports that cardiovascular disease, including hypertension, cerebro-vascular accident, and coronary heart disease, is related to atherosclerotic changes. Increased serum levels of lipids could play a role in these changes. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between PWV and risk factors of cardiovascular disease, including serum lipid values. Methods : This study included 261 subjects ($49.32{\pm}11.79$ years, 112 male) who underwent PWV and serum lipid evaluation. We investigated the correlation between serum lipid values, blood pressure, body mass index (EMI) and PWV. Pearson's correlation and partial correlation analysis were applied to examine the relationship between PWV and risk factors of cardiovascular disease. Results : Serum triglyceride, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure were significantly correlated with PWV. Partial correlation coefficient adjusted by age yielded significant correlation between serum triglyceride, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and PWV. Conclusion : In this study, it seems that there are significant relationships between PWV, triglyceride and blood pressure. We could suggest that PWV might have some relationships with Dam-eum and blood stasis in oriental theory.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.5 s.166
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• pp.467-478
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• 2006

Water supply reliability for a dam is defined with a concept of probabilistic reliability. An evaluation procedure of the water supply reliability is shown with an analysis of long term firm yield reliability. The water supply reliabilities of Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam were evaluated. To evaluate the water supply reliability, forty one sets of monthly runoff series were generated by SAMS-2000. HEC-5 model was applied to the reservoir simulation to compute the firm yield from a monthly data of time series. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the design runoff data of Soyanggang Dam is evaluated by 80.5 % for a planning period of 50 years. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the historic runoff after the dam construction is evaluated by 53.7 %. The firm yield from the design runoff is 1.491 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft Is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr, additional water of 0.094 billion $m^3$ could be supplied every year with its risk. From the similar procedures, the firm yield from the design runoff of Chungju Dam is evaluated 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 2.960 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft is 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr, water supply insufficiency occurs for all the sets of time series generated. It may result from overestimation of the spring runoff used for design. The procedure shown can be a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability of a dam.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.373-373
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• 2012

위험도(risk)는 복잡성(complexity)과 불확실성(uncertainty)라는 2가지 주요 특징으로 인해 위험도를 정확하게 예측하는 것은 불가능하다. 대표적인 수공구조물인 댐이 각종 모니터링을 통해서 안전하다고 판단된다 하더라도 하류지역에 도시가 존재한다면 여전히 잔존위험도(residual risk)는 존재한다. 댐의 파괴가 일반적으로 발생하는 사상은 아니지만 대규모 인명피해, 재산 및 환경피해로 이어지기 때문에 작은 위험도라 할지라도 이에 대한 감시 및 관리가 필수적이다. 댐 위험도 분석을 위해서 Event Tree 또는 Fault Tree가 일반적인 해석 방법으로 이용되고 있으나 잠재적인 파괴모드에 대한 복잡성과 불확실성을 고려하는데 한계가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제점을 개선하기 위해서 Bayesian Network 기반의 위험도 해석기법을 제안하고자 한다. 특히 수문학적 위험도와 관련된 분석을 위해서 Bayesian Network의 구성 방안, 매개변수 추정, 위험도 해석 등 기존 해석 방법을 개선한 댐 위험도 해석 기법을 개발하고자 하며 개발된 방법론을 국내 실제댐에 적용하여 적합성을 평가하였다.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.85-105
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• 2017

Monitoring is the most important part of the construction and operation of the embankment dams. Applied instruments in these dams should be determined based on dam requirements and specifications. Instruments selection considered as one of the most important steps of monitoring plan. Competent instruments selection for dams is very important, as inappropriate selection causes irreparable loss in critical condition. Lack of a systematic method for determining instruments has been considered as a problem for creating an efficient selection. Nowadays, decision making methods have been used widely in different sciences for optimal determination and selection. In this study, the Multi-Attribute Decision Making is applied by considering 9 criteria and categorisation of 8 groups of geotechnical instruments. Therefore, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Multi-Criteria Optimisation and Compromise Solution methods are employed in order to determine the attributes' importance weights and to prioritise of instruments for embankment dams, respectively. This framework was applied for a rock fill with clay core dam. The results indicated that group decision making optimizes the selection and prioritisation of monitoring instruments for embankment dams, and selected instruments are reliable based on the dam specifications.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.863-869
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• 2004

댐의 수리${\cdot}$수문학적 월류 확률 추정시에 가장 민감한 불확실성 변량은 댐의 초기수위라 할 수 있으며, 특히 자료의 특성을 충분히 반영하고 댐마루(dam crest)의 높이를 초과하지 않으면서 경계를 갖는 분포형을 추정하는 것은 무엇보다 중요하다. 그러나 기존의 매개변수적 확률분포 추정방법으로 이러한 문제점을 적절히 반영할 수 없으며 통계특성을 반영하지 못하고 이상화시키는 단점이 있다. 이러한 문제점을 보완하기 위해서 비매개변수적 핵밀도함수 방법과 Bootstrap 기법을 적용하여 수위의 신뢰구간을 추정하였다. 연 최대치 자료를 이용한 비매개변수적 핵밀도함수 기법을 이용한 해석결과에서는 댐의 설계빈도를 상회하는 비교적 큰 위험도 나타냈으며 홍수기의 평상수위고 가정하는 Bootstrap Resampling을 적용한 위험도는 5.11E-06의 간을 나타났다. 가장 극심한 기상상태를 가정한 해석 결과인 1.1972E-03은 본 댐은 여수로의 설계빈도가 1,000년 빈도로서 설계당시보다 확률수문량이 크게 증가된 현재 여수로 방류능력 및 안전성 상태로 고려해보면 적당한 위험도 값으로 추정된다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.1-25
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• 2013

A combined thermal and mechanical action in roller compacted concrete (RCC) dam analysis is carried out using a three-dimensional finite element method. In this work a numerical procedure for the simulation of construction process and service life of RCC dams is presented. It takes into account the more relevant features of the behavior of concrete such as hydration, ageing and creep. A viscoelastic model, including ageing effects and thermal dependent properties is adopted for the concrete. The different isothermal temperature influence on creep and elastic modulus is taken into account by the maturity concept, and the influence of the change of temperature on creep is considered by introducing a transient thermal creep term. Crack index is used to assess the risk of occurrence of crack either at short or long term. This study demonstrates that, the increase of the elastic modulus has been accelerated due to the high temperature of hydration at the initial stage, and consequently stresses are increased.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.92-100
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• 2022

Of the Korean military's 3,959 ammunition depots, 1,007 - more than 25% - violate safety requirements for distance and equipment. There is a risk of explosion in old depots that are vulnerable to various interior and exterior accidents. This paper examines 10 scenarios, with varying values for ammunition amount and safety distance. The study calculated the overpressure that can be applied to risk-exposure objects, based on the safety distance; expected damage was predicted using constructed spatial information from 3D explosion simulations. The simulations confirmed that explosion overpressure increased the most when the safety distance violation rate increased from 80% to 90%. It also confirmed that secondary damage such as fire and explosion can cause casualties and property damage when the violation rate is 60% or higher. The results show that building collapse becomes a risk with a violation rate of 70% or higher. We conclude that taking ammunition depot safety distance violation into account when planning military facilities and their land utilization could better protect life and property.